This document discusses the evolution of the web from its inception in 1991 to present-day mobile web technologies. It outlines key milestones in web development, including the transition from Web 1.0, characterized by static content, to Web 2.0 with user-generated content and social media, leading to the current mobile web paradigm. The document also examines various driving forces behind this evolution, such as technological advancements, market changes, and user behavior.

1. May 12, 2014
University of Milano Bicocca
URBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme
The evolution of the
Web
Part I: The story
Roberto Polillo
Department of Informatics, Systems and Communications
University of Milano Bicocca
1

2. Our goal: to discuss the evolution of the Web
R.Polillo, May 2014
3
 Part I (today): The story
A summary of the milestones / paradigms of
the evolution of the Web: 1990-today
 Part II (next Monday): The driving forces
A summary of market mechanisms that drive
the growth of the Web online services

3. R.Polillo, May 2014
4
"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus

4. The evolution of the Web
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5
 From the first Web site (1991), the Web is
continuously growing and changing its nature
 In parallel, telephony is drastically changed
(fixed → mobile)
 Drivers of this evolution: tecnology, market,
people behaviour

5. Four Internet paradigms
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6
1995+
 Corporate sites
 Web portals
 Search engines
 E-commerce
 Web as an interface
 ….
HYPERTEXT,
eCOMMERCE
2005+
 Blogs
 Social networks
 UGC
 Cooperative
creation
 Sharing
 Reusable contents
 …
SOCIAL MEDIA
1985
+
 E-mail
 File transfer
 Newsgroups
 ….
COMMUNICATION
NETWORK

6. 2015+
MOBILE WEB
 Mobile devices
 Cloud computing
 Geolocalzation
 Camera phone
 Augmented reality
 Electronic wallet
Four Internet paradigms
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7
Mobile devices
Desktop + laptop
Worldwide installed base

7. Growth8
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8. Web sites growth (world)
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9
Source:
http://gandalf.it/dati
millions
Active sites
"Dead"sites

9. Web sites languages
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10
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
(April 2013)

10. Internet host growth (World)
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11
Source: Internet Systems Consortium, from Wikipedia
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage

11. Internet users growth (World)
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12
Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013
(onlinte)

12. Growth of .it domains
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13 thousands
Source:
http://gandalf.it/dati

13. Internet traffic growth (World)
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14
http://gizmodo.com/5614841/
web
video
p2p

14. Nature of Internet traffic
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15
Da Wired

15. Paradigm #1: Web 1.016
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16. Web 1.0
MS Explorer
Amazon
eBay
IPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001
2002
First web site
at
CERN
W3C
Netscape Navigator
Yahoo
Mosaic
Google
Mozilla
Napster
Paypal
Max
NASDAQ
9/11
Min
NASDAQ
Nasdaq Composite Index
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17

17. Web 1.0: main characteristics
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18
 Site content produced by site publisher
 Hierarchical organization and navigation thru menu
 Single user ↔ web site interaction
 Interaction with data bases
 "Closed" services (“get the user and keep her within
site”)

18. Narrowband connection
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19

19. Web 1.0 Web sites
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 Corporate Web sites
 Portals and search engines
 eCommerce
 [Enterprise portals]

20. Corporate Web sites
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21
 Target: customers, investors, press, general
public
 Who & where we are, what we do, our
products / services, [online sales]

21. Portals
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 Access to set of online resources
 Thematic "channels"
 General portals vs "vortals"
 Personalization (“myPortal”)
 Very large developments in late '90s
 www.yahoo.com
from 1994, always among the first 5 more visited sites

22. Short history of Yahoo!
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23
 1996: http://web.archive.org/web/19961022175643/http://www10.yahoo.com/
 1999: http://web.archive.org/web/19990208021636/http://www12.yahoo.com/
 2001: http://web.archive.org/web/20011108000033/http://www.yahoo.com/
 2003 http://web.archive.org/web/20031211113526/http://www.yahoo.com/
 2005 http://web.archive.org/web/20051220154406/http://www.yahoo.com/?
 2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071229022936/http://www.yahoo.com/
 2010: http://web.archive.org/web/20101016230535/http://www.yahoo.com/
 Today: www.yahoo.com
http://www.archive.org/ (from 1996)

23. Italy: the beginning
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24
VideoOnLine (Grauso, 1994 → Tin.it, 1996)
(1996)

24. Enterprise portals
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25
Internal to organization:
 Document management
 Internal communication
 Internal procedures and forms
 Front-end to corporate information systems
Private corporate networks slowly adopt Internet
protocols ("intranet")

25. E-commerce: main success stories
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26
 http://www.amazon.com from 1995
Current size:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=amazon.com
 http://www.ebay.com from 1995
Current size:
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ebay.com

26. The "dot.com bubble"27
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27. IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy
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28
 dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995)
 Founded 18 months earlier
 16 M$ revenues, no profit
 Market cap at IPO: 1 B$ (!)
 Large venture capital, to bring startups to IPO
 Many irrealistic business models
 NASDAQ bubble, then fall (2000-2001)
 Silicon Valley stops completely

28. The "dot.com bubble”
MS Explorer
Amazon
eBay
IPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001
2002
First web
site at
CERN
W3C
Netscape Navigator
Yahoo
Mosaic
Google
Mozilla
Napster
Paypal
Max
NASDAQ
9/11
Min
NASDAQ
Nasdaq Composite Index
March 10
2000: index at
5132
March 10
2000: index at
5132
Oct 9 2002:
index at 1114
Oct 9 2002:
index at 1114
R.Polillo, May 2014
29

29. R.Polillo, May 2014
30
But the life continues….

30. Paradigm #2: Web 2.031
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31. Web 2.0: birth of a name
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32
 First O’Reilly Media Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004)
 The Internet community realizes that the Web is changed…

32. Web 2.0 key aspects
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33
Social media:
 The user is the leading actor
 User interaction throu the Web: one-to-many (blog), many-to-many
(social media)
 Services to host User Generated Content (UGC), to be shared with other
users
 Collective creation
 User rating in e-commerce
 "Market are conversations" (Cluetrain manifesto, 1999-2000)
The Web as a computing platform:
 Online services, virtualization
 Perpetuale beta
 Component and service mashups
 Rich Internet Applications (RIA) technologies

33. Web 2.0
2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
12
Twitter,
Slideshare,
Scribd
Google
DocsYouTube
,
Joomla,
NingFlickr,
Facebook
Skype
WordPress
Blogger
LinkedIn iPhone
Groupon
Android,
Dropbox
Foursquar
e
WhatsApp
iPad,
Pinterest
Instagram
Google+
Wikipedi
a
(In red start of mobile
Web)
Internet
traffic
video
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34

34. Xmas 2006
Media acknowledge the paradigm change
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35

35. Top 5 sites (Q4/09 – Q1/13)
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36
Source: Alexa

36. Another bubble?
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37
Netscape IPO
Google IPO
Aug 19 2004
LinkedIn IPO
(NYSE)
Facebook IPO
Twitter IPO
(NYSE)
199
4
199
5
199
7
199
6
March 10 2000:
5049
(Indice Nasdaq 1994-2013)

37. In the meanwhile, telephony changes…38
R.Polillo, May 2014

38. Fasi della storia del Web
39
FirstW
eb
site
atCERN
M
osaic
(N
CSA)
W
3C;N
etscape
N
avigator
Netscape
IPO
,,M
S
Explorer,Am
azon,eBay
Boom
and
fallofNASD
AQ
G
oogle
IPO
;Facebook
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12
WEB 1.0 WEB 2.0crisisPre-history
G
oogle
founded
9/11;W
ikipedia
Financialcrisi
iPhone,Android
Tw
itter
iPad
FB
IPO
Nasdaq Composite Index
YouTube
Internet
traffic
video

39. R.Polillo, May 201440
SMS
2 G
Nokia
5110
GSM (candybar)
SMS, watch, sveglia,
rubrica, calcolatrice,
rubrica, giochi, suonerie
MMS
WAP
2.5 G
Motorola
V3 RAZR
"Feature phone"
GPRS (candybar,
clamshell) +
MMS,,photocamera,
email, (Internet)
Touch phone
iPhone
+ multitouch,
sensors, GPS,
app, …
3 G
Blackberry
"Smartphone"
+ alphanumeric kb,
PDA, video, GPS,
radio, MP3, OS, …TELEFONIA
MOBILE
TIM,
Omnitel
FirstW
eb
site
atCERN
M
osaic
(N
CSA)
W
3C;N
etscape
N
avigator
Netscape
IPO
,,M
S
Explorer,Am
azon,
Boom
and
fallofNASD
AQ
G
oogle
IPO
;Facebook
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12G
oogle
founded
9/11;W
ikipedia
Financialcrisi
iPhone,Android
Tw
itter
iPad
FB
IPO
YouTube

40. IP telephony
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41
 Skype
 Internet based video-telephony, free
 Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 2005, then by
Microsoft in 2011 (8,5 B$)
 2012: 700 ml accounts; one third of all international
calls pass through Skype
 Jan 2013: 50 ml concurrent users
 WhatsApp
 Free SMS via IP
 Started in 2009, acquired by Facebook in 2014 (19
B$)

41. The "mobile miracle"
R.Polillo, May 201442
ITU, Measuring the Information Society
2012
Mobile cellular subscriptions
6 years gap
ITU, Measuring the Information Society
2013
Internet users
90% of world
population has
access to a cellphone

42. R.Polillo, May 201443

43. Paradigm #3: Mobile Web44
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44. Apple iPhone (2007)
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45

45. Android
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46
 Linux based mobile OS
 Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google
in 2005
 Open-source
 First android phone: end 2008
 Today the largest market share for mobile OS

46. Mobile OS market share
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47
Source: StatCounter

47. Apple iPAD (2010)
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48

48. Samsung Galaxy S series
(Android)
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49
2010 2013

49. Mobile installed base (World)
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50

50. "Leap-frogging"
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51

51. "Mobile" may be misleading…
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52
 Emphasis is not on the "moveability"
 Emphasis is on the fact that we always bring
them with us
Small, portable, personal, context-aware, multi-
function devices…
… which can also be used to make a phone call

52. A complete paradigm change
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53
Access
from fixed
location
Ubiquitous,
contextualizedl
access
Device is geo-localized, has
eyes, hears, voice, knows its
user and is connected to a
global computing platform

53. Devices change our behaviours
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54
Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones in
USA: voice vs SMS (Nielsen)

54. Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones: voice vs
SMS by age in USA
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55
Q2 2008, Nielsen

55. Camera phone
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56
 Started circa 2002, with MMS services
 Now editing (photo and video) and immediate
uploading / sharing on the net
 >250 ml photos uploaded daily to Facebook
 Photo & videa cameras change their nature

56. http://bit.ly/VIIoX1 R.Polillo, May 201457

57. Samsung Cameraphone (Android)
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58

58. Camera eyes: QRCODE
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59. Augmented reality
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60

60. Augmented reality
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61

61. Augmented reality
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62

62. But we cannot do everything with a
small, portable device…
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63
Mobile
and
cloud
com
puting
are
strongly
related
CLOUD
Tks Lara Ciccarelli per i disegni

63. And now…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013
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64

64. Smart watches
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65

65. Smartphone voice assistant
 Apple Siri: in iPhone 4S ott 2011, in iPad in set 2012
Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwVQhEXCcc
 Google Voice Search/Google now: ottobre 2012,
orientato al search
 Microsoft Cortana: 2014
 http://bgr.com/2014/04/14/cortana-vs-siri-vs-google-now
 Il futuro anche nei sistemi di guida di autoveicoli
R.Polillo - Marzo 2014
66

66. Conclusion
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67
"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus

67. R.Polillo, May 201468
Thank you!
www.rpolillo.it
Roberto.polillo@unimib.it