This document discusses the economic causes and consequences of population changes and their relationship to desertification. It notes that the world's population is projected to continue growing significantly, especially in Asia and Africa, resulting in increased urbanization, rural abandonment, and poverty. Rural to urban migration is caused by factors like inadequate agricultural policies, market conditions, and unequal natural resource availability. Growing populations put pressure on environments and resources, exacerbating land degradation and desertification. Climate change is also projected to increase migration due to flooding, food and water scarcity. Overall population growth will continue shaping economies and environments globally in complex ways.

1. Economic causes
and consequences of
population changes
Alejandro LEÓN1, Michael CHERLET2
1Universidad de Chile;
2European Commission, Joint Research Centre
UNCCD 2nd Scientific Conference
April 10, 2013

2. The purpose
• Socialize the framework of the World Atlas of
Desertification
• And highlight some issues relating population
change and economic drivers
• Seek collaborators with specific cases that help
illustrate migrations/population
increase/economics/desertification

3. Population growth projection
(UNFPA, 2011)

4. (PRB, 2010 y UNFPA, 2011)

5. (UNICEF, 2011)

6. Earth’s Growing Human
Population
• Some basic facts:
• +200,000/day are added to the human population on Earth.
• Many will grow up in cities (1 out of 10 today; 1 out of 3 by
2050)
• By 2050 many will live in “LDC” countries
• High Urban vs Low Rural growth:
• “Abandonment” of rural areas may be caused by inadequate
agricultural policies, market conditions, unforeseen
consequences of the application of economic instruments
(i.e., subsidies, taxes)
• Also, due to unequal availability of natural capital due to LDD
• Outmigration in time and space

7. And impacts on the
environment
Abandonment of rural areas is related, among
other reasons: poverty, pollution and loss of
ecosystems, war and / or ethnic persecution, as
well as land use change and the lack of basic
services, health and educational.
Regions are subject to population pressure,
resulting in inadequate agricultural and
environmental management practices such as
cultivation of shallow and/or steep soils.

8. Poverty, Food and
Environmental Insecurity
• At the beginning of the XXI century about 1.1
billion lived below the $1/day benchmark
• They also lacked access to water and 2.4 billion
lacked access to sanitary services
• Today, more than 1.8 billion reportedly live bellow
$1/day
• The areas involved: Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe,
Central America and the Caribbean, Africa.

9. Water-scarce areas (which tend to
be those with high population
increase)
(FAO, 2012)

10. Additional issues
compounding the previous
• Political/Environmental refugees:
• 214 millions in 2010, an increase of 23 million since 2005
• in Sudan millions have migrated to neighboring countries
• Arab/African countries impacted by drought and other natural
disaster
• Self-sufficient communities are now dependent on others to
survive.
• Some home governments have taken advantage and
redistributed land, some times to other immigrants
• LAC: the import substitution model implemented in the
1950s. Cities have a disordered grown on best agricultural
soils

11. Changes in the migratory
pattern in LAC
(Rodriguez, 2011)

12. The case of China: migratory
flows 2000-2005
SCNBS, 2007, cited by Wing, 2011)

13. Migratory flow from LAC and
Mexico to USA
(CONAPO, 2004, cited by Delgado and Márquez,
2006)

14. Increased population >> Increased demands
=
Capacity of the planet?
1988
We need to control the population??? (WWF, 2005)

15. Areas at risk of flooding as
climate change scenarios
(Banco mundial 2005, cited by Adamo y Sherbinin, 2011)

16. Conclusions
• Population growth will continue to be led by Asia, but in
2050 India will maintain its leadership.
• This growth tends to be concentrated in urban areas…
• need for measures and incentives to stop migration to
cities? and improve the structure of these (better quality of
life).
• Poverty increase is related in part to increases in
population occurs in countries experiencing poverty and
highly vulnerable.

17. Conclusions
• Climate change impacts migration due to flooding (mega
deltas of Asia and islands), scarcity of food (Africa),
scarcity of water. It also causes uncertainty about the fate
of the refugees and the effect on the economies of the
host countries.
• Hence, there is highly dynamic/risky situation in terms of
population/desertification, and the World Atlas needs to
capture it