Richard Black's presentation - PGD expert meeting - 24-25 Feb 2015

1. Environment and migration
Richard Black
23 February 2015

2. “The temperature increases, the
temperature changes of this
kind, transform where people can be. In
the upwards direction, you’re going to
get some areas that become deserts,
probably most of southern Europe.
Others that are inundated: Florida,
Bangladesh, and so on.
The point is that climate change will
change the lives and livelihoods and
where you can live all across the
globe.... With the pollution we have
already generated, the world now
has 25 to 50 million climate refugees.”
- Lord Stern (LSE, 2011)

3. “Pressure to migrate
will intensify”
“1bn likely to be
displaced by 2050”
“150-200 million
environmental
refugees by the
middle of the
century”
Future floods of refugees?
Estimates of
numbers are ‘at
best, guesswork’
(IPCC, 2007)

4. Expanding opportunities for mobility can reduce
vulnerability for such populations. Changes in migration
patterns can be responses to both extreme weather
events and longer-term climate variability and change,
and migration can also be an effective adaptation strategy.
There is low confidence in quantitative projections of
changes in mobility, due to its complex, multi-causal
nature.
What the report actually said:

5. HOW MANY ENVIRONMENTAL
REFUGEES ARE THERE?
QUESTION 1:

7. Environmental refugees?
[P]eople who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat,
temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental
disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardised
their existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life
(El-Hinnawi, 1985: 4)
Environmental migrants?
[P]ersons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of
sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely
affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their
habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily
permanently, and who move either within their country or
abroad (IOM 2007)

8. WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL
CHANGE AND MIGRATION?
QUESTION 2:

9. • Increased temperature, reduced rainfall
in drylands
• Water stress, reduced growing season,
increased frequency/intensity of droughts
• Sea level rise, storm surges, increased
intensity of tropical cyclones
• increased flood risk in low-lying/coastal
regions
• Increased temperature in temperate
regions
• longer growing season in temperate
regions
• Developing countries most affected, least
resilient?
Key climate challenges

10. Rainfall trends
Multi-model averages; A1B scenario
Stippled areas: >90% models agree on sign change
December – February June – August

11. 0
50
100
150
200
250 1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Drought
Flood
Storm
Are extreme environmental events getting more frequent? Or more intense?
Source: compiled from EM-DAT

12. 0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
2008 2009 2010
Displaced in climate events
Displaced in climate events involving >1m
Displaced in climate events involving >100k
Displaced in top ten climate events each year
Largest displacement
Are more people being displaced?
Source: compiled from IDMC data

13. The Pakistan floods (2010)
KPK: Displacement pre-dated the floods,
linked to counter-insurgency
Sindh: Displacement was short-term, to
government buildings

16. Source: Adapted from Foresight (2011)

17. Net migration to coastal areas, 1970-2010
Source: CIESIN (2011) for Foresight

19. Source: Black et al. (2011) Nature

20. Some summary points
• Climate change is happening, with potentially severe consequences
• Migration is occurring even without climate change
• Some studies show declining migration in response to drought (at
least in medium term) or inability to escape floods
• Indeed, likely continued migration to zones at risk of flooding
• Need to disaggregate different types of migration – much movement
is within countries/regions and temporary in nature
• Various migration ‘drivers’ – some are more susceptible to
environmental change, others less so
• What is interesting is marginal impact on migration trends – the big
migration trend right now is to large, low-lying cities in Asia and
Africa

21. WHAT POLICY OPTIONS ARE
THERE?
QUESTION 2:

22. Key components of the 1951 Refugee Convention
• Outside country of origin
Many affected by environmental change have not moved, or have moved
internally
• Well-founded fear of persecution
Climate change or other environmental impacts are rarely seen as
discriminatory in a way that amounts to ‘persecution’
• For reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion of
membership of a particular social group
Climate change is indiscriminate – a ‘social group’ must be connected by a
fundamental characteristic other than the persecution itself
• Unable to call on the protection of that country
Countries often are able and/or willing to protect

23. Hurricane Katrina
(2005):
•Wealthier able to
anticipate and escape
•Poorest trapped in
Superdome during crisis
•Higher subsequent
long-term displacement
of poor
•New in-migration
associated with
recovery

24. Delhi
Bangalore
Mumbai
Chennai
Kolkota
Internal migration and environmental change in India

25. Possibility for:
• Flexible and adaptable governance
• Inter-agency links and cooperation
• Regional approaches

27. A policy framework for migration
in environmental change
“Reduce”
“Plan For”
“Migration as
adaptation”
• Slowing the rate of change
• Reducing the impacts
• Increasing resilience
• Addressing protection gaps
• Planning for urban growth
• Dealing with conflicts
• Relocation as adaptation
• Building new cities
• Making migration work

28. Source: WGBU (2008)