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Bruce Campbell - Climate change and forced migration
Climate change will have major impacts in parts of the Middle East and Africa, driving migration and potentially unrest. It can profoundly impact rural societies through agricultural and economic shocks, forcing migration as the main coping strategy. While migration brings risks of urban unrest, building thriving rural economies through strategies like early warning systems, cash transfers, climate information services, and climate-smart villages can help increase resilience.
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Bruce Campbell - Climate change and forced migration
- 1. Climate change and forcedmigration Bruce Campbell, Director, CCAFS
- 2. 1. Migration hasmany influences 2. CC will have major impacts in Middle East & Africa 3. There will be profound impacts on rural society 4. It can drive urban unrest and conflict 5. One part of the Solution? Building thriving rural economies
- 3. 1. Migration hasmany influences
- 4. Urban unrest & conflict Cross- border migration Extreme eventsand gradual climate change Production & livelihood challenges Migration Population(millions) 60 40 20 0 1960 1980 2000 2020 2050 Urban Rural South Africa
- 5. Environmental change, migration& conflict
- 6. …but fraught withcontroversy • Lack of systematic data • Complex circumstances that influence decisions economic opportunities (push and pull) land degradation political persecution overpopulation Black et al., 2011
- 7. 2. CC willhave major impacts
- 8. Beans – ontheir way out Percentage change RCP8.5 80 60 40 5 -5 -20 -40 -60 -80 2050
- 9. Natural Catastrophes Worldwide Climatologicalevents (extreme temperature, drought, forest fire) Hydrological events (flood, mass movement) Meteorological events (storm) Geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami ….)
- 10. “the worst 3-yeardrought in the instrumental record” Kelley et al. (2015) Drought index
- 11. Water stress bycountry: 2040 Ratio of withdrawals to supply > 80% RCP8.5 WRI
- 12. Agricultural and economic shocks Vietnam: LocDuc Nguyen et al., 2012 South Asia: Bhatta and Aggarwal 2015 Ghana: Rademacher-Schulz et al. 2014 “migration is the most important coping strategy” rainfall variability and food insecurity 3. There will be profound impacts on rural society
- 13. Vietnam: Loc DucNguyen et al., 2012 Nepal: Sugden et al., 2015 Ghana: Rademacher-Schulz et al. 2014 Generally only one member migrates 60% males Age 24 Better educated Less poor Largely male out-migration Increasing gendered vulnerability
- 14. Loc Duc Nguyenet al., 2012 <1 year out: very unsatisfied with choice 3–5 years: most satisfied > 5 years: less satisfied Much back-migration
- 15. Rainy season migration •“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed” • Sell assets (livestock) to cope - vulnerability • Rainy season migration • Reduced labour for ag production - vulnerability Rademacher-Schulz et al. 2014
- 16. “…. will bean extremely effective way to build long-term resilience” Migration is a legitimate form of climate change adaptation $300 billion per annum
- 17. 26 million peopleper year are internally displaced due to natural disasters (INDC, 2015) 200 million coastal inhabitants will be displaced by 2050 Stern, 2006 Despite many exit barriers Beegle et al. 2011 50 million environmental migrants in the next decade Sept Newsweek (though numbers are disputed)
- 18. fuels the fire ofunrest 4. Migration can drive urban unrest and conflict
- 19. Marco Lagi, YavniBar-Yam, Karla Z. Bertrand, Yaneer Bar-Yam 2012 Food price index “Food riots” Deaths
- 20. 1.5 million displacedto cities Large influx of Iraqi refugees Poor governance Poverty Socio-political factors Failure to address suffering of a displaced population
- 21. 5. One partof the solution: Build thriving rural economies
- 22. Food security index Bestperformance Needs improvement
- 24. Length of growingseason To 2090, taking 14 climate models Four degree rise >20% loss 5-20% loss No change 5-20% gain >20% gain Thornton et al. (2010) Proc. National Academy Ff F Fff Fff f
- 26. Urban unrest & conflict Cross- border migration Extreme eventsand gradual climate change Production & livelihood challenges Migration Thriving rural economies
- 27. • IRI providesthe forecast • Early Warning, Early Action Strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies
- 28. Early Action works: •Faster response: 1-2 days rather than 40 in 2007 • Fewer victims (30 instead of hundreds) • Lower cost per beneficiary (30%) Braman et al., 2013 Tall et al., 2013
- 29. Example: Ethiopia • Cashtransfers for work by chronically food insecure populations • ~1.3 million made food secure • Growth in livestock holdings • 9 million ha rehabilitated • Better access to clean water • Increase in school attendance Productive Safety Nets
- 30. Senegal: Climate information services •Male and female farmers • Indigenous & scientific • 3.9 million farmers
- 31. Improved index insuranceproducts for 1 million farmers in India
- 32. • . “Climate-smart villages”– High-value sustainable agriculture
- 33.
Editor's Notes
- #3 5. One part of solution:
- #5 Climate change influences the underlying socioeconomic conditions that motivate households to move. This can be through extreme events, which abruptly and forcefully displace people from their land, or through more gradual processes such as sea-level rise and long-term drought
- #6 Similar scenarios have occurred in conditions as diverse as; the United States Great Plains in the 1930s, to the Sahel region from the 1960s to 1980s (see Reuveny, 2007). Even the collapse of the Mayan society has been linked to recurrent drought, mass migration and subsequent conflict over resources (Diamond, 2005).
- #7 2. ….to upend their lives and embark on uncertain and potentially dangerous journeys
- #11 Beginning in the winter of 2006/2007, Syria and the greater Fertile Crescent (FC), where agriculture and animal herding began some 12,000 years ago (1), experienced the worst 3-year drought in the instrumental record (2). anthropogenic forcing has increased the probability of severe and persistent droughts in this region, and made the occurrence of a 3-year drought as severe as that of 2007−2010 2 to 3 times more likely than by natural variability alone Population increase, increasing extraction of groundwater
- #12 The Middle-East and North African (MENA) region is already one of the least water-secure areas in the world (Maddocks et al., 2015). In the coming decades, climate change and temperature rise are forecasted to have further significant negative impacts on food and water security (Hötzl, 2008; Chenoweth et al., 2011; Evans, 2009). More frequent extreme weather events and sporadic rainfall will threaten the region’s already stressed water supply, and increased drought occurrence is expected to lower agricultural yields
- #13 …..In Vietnam ……in 2 or 3 study areas in Bihar and coastal Bangladesh” ….. In NW Ghana
- #14 In Vietnam
- #15 In Vietnam
- #16 Christina Rademacher-Schulz, Benjamin Schraven & Edward Salifu Mahama (2014) Time matters: shifting seasonal migration in Northern Ghana in response to rainfall variability and food insecurity, Climate and Development, 6:1, 46-52, DOI: 10.1080/17565529.2013.830955
- #17 remittances are a source of international capital which exceeds overseas development aid29
- #19 Food crisis and conflict map from 2009 – I think I have it somewhere
- #20 Figure 2.1: Time dependence of FAO Food Price Index from January 2004 to May 2011. Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of \food riots&quot; and protests associated with the major recent unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. The overall death toll is reported in parentheses [213{242]. Blue vertical line indicates the date, December 13, 2010, on which we submitted a report to the U.S. government, warning of the link between food prices, social unrest and political instability [243]. Inset shows FAO Food Price Index from 1990 to 2011.
- #21 Over-crowding or unemployment puicture
- #22 Providing opportunities for rural communities to remain productively on the land can stymie mass migration, smoothing rural to urban migration rates in order to avoid volatile and rapid urbanization.’ while enhancing the absorptive capacity of cities Simultaneously, governments must work to address the social and income inequalities that arise when rural to urban migration occurs
- #27 Climate change influences the underlying socioeconomic conditions that motivate households to move. This can be through extreme events, which abruptly and forcefully displace people from their land, or through more gradual processes such as sea-level rise and long-term drought
- #28 Difficulty is that you have technical probabilistic information vs human [largely] binary decisions. Rarely an issue of “What can you provide?” versus “What do you need?” need to discuss the PROBLEM, and have a dialog about what information would be necessary to make progress on that problem. Involves forecast products, regional predictability, communication and training on forecast ability and products, realtime monitoring of climate and environment, disaster relief specialists, pathways for disseminating information, preparedness action plans (“no regrets”) to mobilize necessary resources once financial support in place. In 2008, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) used a seasonal forecast for West Africa for the first time to implement an Early Warning, Early Action strategy for enhanced flood preparedness and response. Interviews with disaster managers suggest that this approach improved their capacity and response. Relief supplies reached flood victims within days, as opposed to weeks in previous years, thereby preventing further loss of life, illness, and setbacks to livelihoods, as well as augmenting the efficiency of resource use. This case demonstrates the potential benefits to be realised from the use of medium-to-long-range forecasts in disaster management, especially in the context of potential increases in extreme weather and climate-related events due to climate variability and change. However, harnessing the full potential of these forecasts will require continued effort and collaboration among disaster managers, climate service providers, and major humanitarian donors. Climate forecasts in disaster management: Red Cross flood operations in West Africa, 2008 Lisette Martine Braman, Maarten Krispijn van Aalst, Simon J. Mason, Pablo Suarez, Youcef Ait-Chellouche and Arame Tall1 2013 Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Guide DisasterManagement: The Red Cross Experience during the 2008West Africa Floods Arame Tall,1, 2 Simon J.Mason,3 Maarten van Aalst,2 Pablo Suarez,2 Youcef Ait-Chellouche,4 Adama A. Diallo,5 and Lisette Braman2, 3 1 Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), 1717 Massachusetts Avenue, N. W., Office 715, Washington, DC 20036, USA 2Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, The Netherlands 3 International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Palisades, NY, USA 4UNISDR Africa Regional Office, Nairobi, Kenya 5African Center for Meteorological Applications to Development (ACMAD), Niamey, Niger Correspondence should be addressed to Arame Tall, arametall@gmail.com Received 29 September 2011; Revised 22 December 2011; Accepted 15 January 2012 Academic Editor: Gregory S. Jenkins Copyright © 2012 Arame Tall et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In 2008, the seasonal forecast issued at the Seasonal Climate Outlook Forum for West Africa (PRESAO) announced a high risk of above-normal rainfall for the July–September rainy season. With probabilities for above-normal rainfall of 0.45, this forecast indicated noteworthy increases in the risk of heavy rainfall. When this information reached the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) West and Central Africa Office, it led to significant changes in the organization’s flood response operations. The IFRC regional office requested funds in advance of anticipated floods, prepositioned disaster relief items in strategic locations acrossWest Africa to benefit up to 9,500 families, updated its flood contingency plans, and alerted vulnerable communities and decision-makers across the region. This forecast-based preparedness resulted in a decrease in the number of lives, property, and livelihoods lost to floods, compared to just one year prior in 2007 when similar floods claimed above 300 lives in the region. This article demonstrates how a science-based early warning informed decisions and saved lives by triggering action in anticipation of forecast events. It analyses what it took to move decision-makers to action, based on seasonal climate information, and to overcome traditional barriers to the uptake of seasonal climate information in the region, providing evidence that these barriers can be overcome. While some institutional, communication and technical barriers were addressed in 2008, many challenges remain. Scientists and humanitarians need to build more common ground.
- #30 Innovative collaborations among governments, global donors and humanitarian organizations have already shown the way forward. Ethiopia: Forest area in Ethiopia declines by 1% each year. 98,490,000 cubic meters of woodfuel were consumed in 2008 [FAO. 2011. State of the World’s Forests.] Ethiopia: Complementary, predictable long-term response to food insecurity Support to chronically food insecure populations can be designed to protect and create assets at the household and community level, as an alternative to annual emergency food appeals. In Ethiopia, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) takes a development-oriented approach to food aid that creates an assured governmental safety net and greater predictability for smallholders. By combining international donor funding (over USD 1.27 billion over the last six years) with government supplied infrastructure, labour and inputs (USD 500,000 annually), the PSNP ensures food access, stimulates markets and rehabilitates natural resources. Chronically food insecure households with able-bodied adults receive transfers of cash and food for their participation in labour-intensive public works, while other households receive unconditional transfers. The public works initiatives improve soil quality, water supply, ecological condition, infrastructure and social services, as prioritised through a participatory watershed planning approach. Now in its third phase and operational in 317 woredas (administrative districts), PSNP is reaching 7.7 million beneficiaries. The PSNP program is associated with a range of successes including graduation of approximately 1.3 million individuals from food insecurity, rehabilitation of 9 million hectares of land, growth in livestock holdings, better access to clean water, and increase in school attendance as well as enhancing the impact of other food security programs. Complementary programs address household asset building, community infrastructure development and resettlement. The World Food Program (WFP) and other partners have developed a unified stream of technical advice and a stakeholder platform provides oversight. [World Bank, 2010. Designing and implementing a rural safety net in a low income setting: Lessons learned from Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program 2005–2009. Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank&apos;s assistance to social safety net. 168p.] [IFPRI, 2008. Gilligan DO, Hoddinott J, Kumar NR, Taffesse AS. An Impact Evaluation of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Nets Program. International Food Policy Research Institute, 2033 K Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20006. 74p.] Mexico: Mexican agriculture accounts for 77% of water use, but only 4% of GDP and 13% of total land area. 3.2% of Mexican land is irrigated. [FAO Stat. Mexico.] Mexico: Index-based insurance spurs investment in sustainable agriculture Extreme weather (for example, droughts, floods and heat waves) can not only trigger crises and cause hardship in farming families, but can also inhibit investment in agriculture. Farmers are reluctant to invest in their enterprises in the face of uncertainty and risk. Index-based insurance automatically pays out to farmers when the weather exceeds an established level. There is no need for insurers to make site visits. Making sure farmers receive insurance payments quickly can minimize distress sales of assets. Index-based insurance also boosts risk tolerance among farmers, banks, microfinance lenders and agricultural industries. In Mexico, risk insurance products are well-developed, especially those targeting smaller-scale farmers. In 2010, the public insurance agency, Aseguradora Nacional de la Agricultura y Ganadería (ANAGSA), provided traditional and index-based insurance covering more than 8 million hectares—half of the area sown with annual crops and mostly rainfed maize. Farmers who borrow land from the Government, known as ejidatarios, pay much lower premiums than other farmers. Only non-irrigated major crops are eligible. Index-based insurance to safeguard the livelihoods and assets of poor producers, such as that provided by ANAGSA, usually needs to be subsidised and requires special delivery channels. Schemes to help viable farm businesses manage risk are usually provided by the private sector. [Barrett CB, Barnett BJ, Carter MR, Chantarat S, Hansen JW, Mude AG, Osgood D, Skees JR, Turvey CG, Ward MN. 2007. Poverty traps and climate risk: limitations and opportunities of index-based risk financing. IRI Technical Report No. 07-02. Columbia University: International Research Institute for Climate and Society.] [Hazell PBR, Pomerada C, Valdes A, eds. 1986. Crop Insurance for agricultural development: issues and experience. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. Fuchs A, Wolff H. 2011. Concept and unintended consequences of weather index insurance: the case of Mexico. American Journal of Agricultural Economics 93(2): 505-511.] [Hess U, Hazell P. 2009. Innovations in insuring the poor. Sustainability and scalability of index-based insurance for agriculture and rural livelihoods. 2020 Vision. Focus 17. Brief 5. Washington DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.] India: Post-harvest losses of annual fruit and vegetable production are estimated at 20% due to inadequate transit packaging and refrigeration. [Choudhury. 2006.] [Mittal. 2007.] India: National guaranteed employment bestows multiple benefits Poverty alleviation programmes can also address environmental sustainability objectives, particularly when they involve locally appropriate, bottom-up planning. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), launched in 2006, now operates in every district in India. In 2010–2011, MGNREGA provided jobs for over 50 million rural households at a cost of USD 9.1 billion. MGNREGA entitles every adult to 100 days a year of minimum wage, unskilled manual employment on public works, such as water management, drought proofing, tree planting, land development and rural connectivity. Village-level government, the Gram Panchayat, proposes projects based on felt needs of local communities and MGNREGA priorities. Over 80% of the projects have contributed to rejuvenating the natural resource base in some way. MGNREGA jobs deliver local environmental services, such as recharging groundwater, enhancing soil fertility and increasing biomass which, in turn, contribute to climate change resilience and mitigation, as well as conserving biodiversity. The right to employment and flexible access to the scheme help small-scale farmers and landless rural households to manage risk. MGNREGA specifies that at least one-third of workers should be women. Flexible working hours that accommodate women’s unpaid work and the mandatory presence of women in Gram Panchayat committees mean that women provide more than 50% of the MGNREGA workforce. [Mahapatra R. 2010. MGNREGA: making way for women’s empowerment. www.southasia.oneworld.net/fromthegrassroots/mgnrega-paving-way-for-women-empowerment]
- #32 This company currently insures millions of farmers in India. It insures many crops. CCAFS is working with the insurance company to design better insurance products that better help farmers manage risks. We are working on the metrics (indices) that trigger the insurance products, These indices need to be tailored to local contexts with all their complexities, like specific crop varieties, differing planting dates and varied crop husbandry practices. We also work on improving the weather data, as very local data is needed to provide the input into the decisions when insurance is paid out. We are exploring remote sensing data combined with meteorological data to improve the coverage of the weather data.
- #33 that is best suited to local agro-ecological conditions is just one option to provide improved rural livelihoods.