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Prospect Evaluation

   Alfred Kjemperud
  The Bridge Group AS



                        1
Purpose of Prospect
           Evaluation
• Government
  –   Integral part of resource assessment
  –   Basis for nomination of contract areas
  –   Basis for contractor’s work commitment
  –   Basis for evaluation of applications
• Oil company
  – Integral part of resource assessment
  – Basis for investment decision




                                               2
Methodology
• Volumetric Evaluation
  – Seismic Interpretation
  – Mapping
  – Gross rock volume determination
  – Volume of liquid/gas at surface
• Economic Evaluation
  – Discounted cash flow analysis



                                      3
The volumetric equation
STOIIP = GRV * Net/Gross Ratio * Porosity * oil
  saturation * (1/Bo)
GIIP = GRV * Net/Gross Ratio * Porosity * gas
  saturation * (1/Bg)



                                                           pore fluid
                         rock matrix
                         (frame, skeleton)



Recoverable oil= STOIIP * Recovery Factor for oil
Recoverable gas= GIIP * Recovery Factor for gas

                                             From GeoKnowledge

                                                                 4
HCPV
• Hydrocarbon Pore Volume

  HCPV = GRV * Net/Gross Ratio *
   Porosity * HC saturation




                                   5
Finding the Volume
• Interpretation and mapping
  – Seismic
  – Digitizing and mapping
  – Depth Conversion
• Geometric description
  – Vertical closure
  – Spillpoint realtions
  – Trap fill
  – Uncertainties

                               6
The Trap




           7
The trap
                 Rock Volume


                                    top surface
      vertical
      closure                               spill point


HC-contact

                   bottom surface



             A                                    A’




                                                       8
The maps




A bottom surface map is not required, when:
 - the reservoir thickness > vertical closure
 - the reservoir thickness is constant




                                                9
Volume vs. Depth



Depth
                      Top map

                                HC water contact
         Bottom map



                         Volume



                                                   10
Area/depth graph
                                  Culmination
      -1900


      -2200
                                  Gross Rock Volume
Depth -2500                       = Area under Graph

      -2700

                                                             Spill Point

              10 25   50      Area (sg km)             200




                           Structural
                           contours




                                                             Modified from Geoknowledge a.s.
                                                                                        11
Anticline Geometry Corrections
                    (assume no internal seals)


                                  a
                                                                         Closure
Reservoir                                                                height (h)
thickness                               b
(a,b,c)
                                            c

               OWC/GWC
            Spill point closure




                              a/h<<1        Large geometric multiplier
                              b/h = 1       Small geometric multiplier
                              c/h > 1       Small geometric multiplier




                                                                          PhilPRA/Akj
                                                                                 12
Geometry multiplier




                      13
Reservoir Parameters 1
• Gross thickness (from mapping)
• Net pay
• Porosity
• Permeability
• HC satuartion




                                   14
Reservoir Parametrs 2
• Formation volume factor oil (Bo)
• Formation volume factor gas (Bg)
• Gas deviation factor (Z)




                                     15
Recovery Factor
• Oil
  – Dependant on depletion mechanism
        • Natural depletion
           – 5-15%
        • Effective water drive
           – 15-30%
        • Pressure maintenence methods
           – Up to 65%

• Gas
  – Up to 80-85%



                                         16
Exercise
Volume calculations
                    Length                 10000 m
                    With                    2000 m
                    Hight                    100 m
       100m         Geometric Factor
                    Porosity                   20%
                    So                         70%
                    N/G                        50%
                    RF                          30%

                    Bo                               1.3
              2km




10km


                      1m3 = 6.29 barrels


                                                      17
Volume calculation -
Length
                        Solution
                               10000 m
With                            2000 m
Hight                            100 m
Geometric Factor                 0.45
GRV                       900000000 m3   5661 MMbbl

N/G                             50%                           100m


NRV                       450000000 m3   2831 MMbbl

Porosity                        20%
So                              70%

HCPV                       63000000 m3   396.3 MMbbl
                                                                          2km


Bo                               1.3

STOIIP                     48461538 m3   304.8 MMbbl   10km




RF                              30%

Recoverable resources      14538462 m3    91.4 MMbbl



m3 - MMbbl              6.29/1000000

                                                                     18

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Volume calculation

  • 1. Prospect Evaluation Alfred Kjemperud The Bridge Group AS 1
  • 2. Purpose of Prospect Evaluation • Government – Integral part of resource assessment – Basis for nomination of contract areas – Basis for contractor’s work commitment – Basis for evaluation of applications • Oil company – Integral part of resource assessment – Basis for investment decision 2
  • 3. Methodology • Volumetric Evaluation – Seismic Interpretation – Mapping – Gross rock volume determination – Volume of liquid/gas at surface • Economic Evaluation – Discounted cash flow analysis 3
  • 4. The volumetric equation STOIIP = GRV * Net/Gross Ratio * Porosity * oil saturation * (1/Bo) GIIP = GRV * Net/Gross Ratio * Porosity * gas saturation * (1/Bg) pore fluid rock matrix (frame, skeleton) Recoverable oil= STOIIP * Recovery Factor for oil Recoverable gas= GIIP * Recovery Factor for gas From GeoKnowledge 4
  • 5. HCPV • Hydrocarbon Pore Volume HCPV = GRV * Net/Gross Ratio * Porosity * HC saturation 5
  • 6. Finding the Volume • Interpretation and mapping – Seismic – Digitizing and mapping – Depth Conversion • Geometric description – Vertical closure – Spillpoint realtions – Trap fill – Uncertainties 6
  • 8. The trap Rock Volume top surface vertical closure spill point HC-contact bottom surface A A’ 8
  • 9. The maps A bottom surface map is not required, when: - the reservoir thickness > vertical closure - the reservoir thickness is constant 9
  • 10. Volume vs. Depth Depth Top map HC water contact Bottom map Volume 10
  • 11. Area/depth graph Culmination -1900 -2200 Gross Rock Volume Depth -2500 = Area under Graph -2700 Spill Point 10 25 50 Area (sg km) 200 Structural contours Modified from Geoknowledge a.s. 11
  • 12. Anticline Geometry Corrections (assume no internal seals) a Closure Reservoir height (h) thickness b (a,b,c) c OWC/GWC Spill point closure a/h<<1 Large geometric multiplier b/h = 1 Small geometric multiplier c/h > 1 Small geometric multiplier PhilPRA/Akj 12
  • 14. Reservoir Parameters 1 • Gross thickness (from mapping) • Net pay • Porosity • Permeability • HC satuartion 14
  • 15. Reservoir Parametrs 2 • Formation volume factor oil (Bo) • Formation volume factor gas (Bg) • Gas deviation factor (Z) 15
  • 16. Recovery Factor • Oil – Dependant on depletion mechanism • Natural depletion – 5-15% • Effective water drive – 15-30% • Pressure maintenence methods – Up to 65% • Gas – Up to 80-85% 16
  • 17. Exercise Volume calculations Length 10000 m With 2000 m Hight 100 m 100m Geometric Factor Porosity 20% So 70% N/G 50% RF 30% Bo 1.3 2km 10km 1m3 = 6.29 barrels 17
  • 18. Volume calculation - Length Solution 10000 m With 2000 m Hight 100 m Geometric Factor 0.45 GRV 900000000 m3 5661 MMbbl N/G 50% 100m NRV 450000000 m3 2831 MMbbl Porosity 20% So 70% HCPV 63000000 m3 396.3 MMbbl 2km Bo 1.3 STOIIP 48461538 m3 304.8 MMbbl 10km RF 30% Recoverable resources 14538462 m3 91.4 MMbbl m3 - MMbbl 6.29/1000000 18