การนำเสนอบทความวิชาการในการประชุมวิชาการ ICUE 2020 on Energy, Environment, and Climate Change International Conference ระหว่างวันที่ 20-22 ตุลาคม 2563 ในรูปแบบออนไลน์ หัวข้อ Meteorological Drought Hazard Assessment under Future Climate Change Prediction for Agriculture Area in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand

1. Meteorological Drought Hazard Assessment under Future Climate Change Projection
for Agriculture Area in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering at Sriracha, Kasetsart University Sriracha Campus,
Chonburi, THAILAND
2 Water Engineering and Management, School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology,
Pathumthani, THAILAND
*Corresponding author; E-mail address: thanasit@eng.src.ku.ac.th
Thanasit Promping1 and Tawatchai Tingsanchali1,2
1

2. 2
Introduction
Objective
Study Area
Methodology
Results and discussion
Conclusions
Outline

3. Introduction
3
 Climate change around the world is caused by natural and by human activity
changing. IPCC (2019) reported an increase of 1.5°C to 2°C on average observed
temperature at present due to global warming.
 Thailand drought situation in 2020 caused severe damage on agricultural production
of about 26 billion baht (0.87 billion US dollars) which is the worst in the present
decade. It also affected both off- and on-season crop farms, fruit orchards and
highest to rice (Prasertsri, 2020).
 Boonwichai (2019), the study of future climate change impact on rice production in
Songkhram River Basin [3] found that rice yield will reduce about 14% and 10%
during 2020-2094, for RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively.
 Previous studies defined drought hazard indices from meteorological, soil moisture,
hydrological and satellite observed impact aspects. Previous studies (Guenang,
2014; Karavitis, 2011; Tingsanchali, 2018) mentioned that SPI is a simple and useful
index to establish meteorological drought early warning and monitoring.

4. Objective
4
The main objective of this study is to predict future meteorological drought hazard
based on three components namely rainfall under climate change conditions, distance
from surface water supply resources and groundwater yields.
The sub-objectives of this study :
 Future climate projection method.
 Standardized Precipitation Index determination.
 Determination of weighting factors using Analytic Hierarchy
Process Technique.
 Prediction of future metrological drought hazard level for 2020s
(2011-2040), 2050s (2041-2070), and 2080s (2071-2100).

5. Study Area
5
The Songkhram River Basin
(SRB) in Northeast Thailand with
a drainage area of 12,880 km2
drains into the Mekong River
Basin which runs along the
boundary between Thailand and
Lao PDR. The majority land use
types of the SRB are about 68%
(agricultural area), 17% (forest),
10 and 5% (Build-up and water
body, respectively). Approximate
36% of total agricultural area in
SRB is wet-paddy field area
located in the upper and middle
parts.

6. Methodology
6

7. Result and Discussion
Future Climate Projection Method Table Performance of climate downscaling method
(analysis only for ACCESS-CSRO-CCAM, CNRM-
CM5-CSIRO-CCAM, MPI-ESM-CSIRO-CCAM).
(a)_RCP4.5
7
Station ID Indicators Baseline ACCES
S
CNRM MPI
356201 Mean (mm) 3.13 3.38 3.54 3.33
SD (mm) 9.65 8.68 8.24 7.46
356301 Mean (mm) 4.36 4.65 5.05 5.04
SD (mm) 12.21 9.95 12.27 12.25
357201 Mean (mm) 6.48 7.00 7.18 7.30
SD (mm) 17.07 15.63 19.25 19.77
357301 Mean (mm) 5.27 6.08 6.25 6.22
SD (mm) 14.81 13.55 16.28 16.75
388401 Mean (mm) 4.20 5.12 4.64 5.28
SD (mm) 11.80 11.67 10.14 13.02
410201 Mean (mm) 4.04 4.45 4.89 5.15
SD (mm) 11.55 8.81 11.07 13.17
(b) RCP8.5
Figure Past and Future Annual Precipitation under RCP4.5 and 8.5
at Sakon Nakhon station (356201)

8. Objective
Result and Discussion
Standardized Precipitation Index Determination
8
Station ID Base Time 2020s 2050s 2080s
RCP 4.5 RCP8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5
SPI1
356201 0.00 0.07 0.09 0.06 -0.11 -0.14 -0.03
356301 0.02 0.01 0.02 0.07 -0.13 -0.04 -0.05
357201 0.03 0.08 0.18 0.06 -0.01 -0.11 -0.21
357301 0.00 0.04 0.22 0.12 0.00 -0.13 -0.26
410201 0.04 0.06 0.02 0.04 -0.10 -0.07 -0.04
352201 0.00 0.04 0.22 0.12 -0.01 -0.13 -0.26
SPI3
356201 0.00 0.42 0.33 -0.11 0.18 -0.34 -0.54
356301 0.00 0.47 0.23 -0.15 0.22 -0.31 -0.46
357201 0.01 0.27 0.25 -0.02 0.16 -0.26 -0.41
357301 0.00 0.24 0.19 -0.03 0.20 -0.21 -0.38
410201 0.00 0.39 0.29 -0.09 0.11 -0.30 -0.42
352201 0.01 0.24 0.18 -0.03 0.20 -0.22 -0.38
Table The SPI1 and SPI3 Values at Six Meteorological Stations on Baseline and Future Time
Steps (2020s, 2050s and 2080s)

9. Objective
Result and Discussion
Determination of Weighting Factors using Analytic Hierarchy Process Technique
9
Hazard Factors SPI
Value
Distance
from Water
Resource
Groundwater
Yield
SPI Value 1 3 5
Distance from
Water
Resource
1/3 1 3
Groundwater
Yield
1/5 1/3 1
Table Pairwise Comparison Matrix
Hazard
Factors
SPI
Value
Distance from
Water Resource
Groundwater
Yield
Weight
(Wi)
SPI Value 15/23 9/13 5/9 0.63
Distance
from Water
Resource
5/23 3/13 3/9 0.26
Groundwater
Yield
3/23 1/13 1/9 0.11
Sum 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Consistency indicators
• Eigen Value (λmax) = 3
• Consistency Index (CI) = 0
• Consistency Ratio = 0
Drought Hazard Parameters
• SPI Value
• Distance from Surface
Water Supply Resources
• Groundwater Yields
Table Determining the Normalized Weight for
Thematic Layer
1
2
3
4

10. Objective
Result and Discussion
Future Metrological Drought Hazard Assessment
10
Figure Drought Hazard Maps for Paddy Field (SPI1) Figure Drought Hazard Maps for Field Crop (SPI3)
(b) RCP8.5 (b) RCP8.5
(a)_RCP4.5 (a)_RCP4.5

11. Conclusion
11
 Projected future annual precipitation show that for RCP4.5, the precipitation in
summer season increased from 211 to 278 mm (+31.7%), while in rainy season, it
decreased from 1686 to 1603 mm (-4.9%) and in winter from 40 to 26 mm (-35%).
 In all year round, for RCP4.5 the annual precipitation decreased from 1936 to 1907
mm or -1.5%. The same trend was found for RCP8.5 with an annual decrease of
-3.7%.
 The SPI values were changed to from 0.47 to -0.54 depend on cumulative month
precipitation and greenhouse gas emission levels.
 In the study area of 12,880 km2, for SPI1 under RCP4.5; the low hazard area is
33%, medium of 22%, high of 45% in 2020s. They do not change much in 2050s
but significantly change from low to medium, medium to high and high to very high
hazard respectively in 2080s.
 The droughts become more significant in the study area as the time goes on from
2020s to 2050s and ultimately to 2080s for both rice and filed crops.

12. SCAN ME
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