This study assessed the impacts of climate change and land use change on watershed hydrology using the SWAT model. The MIROC3.2 climate model and CLUE-s land use change model were used to project future conditions. SWAT was calibrated and validated, then run using projected increases in temperature and variability in precipitation as well as predicted decreases in forest/agriculture and increases in urban/grassland. The results indicated higher evapotranspiration and surface runoff by 2080, as well as increased groundwater recharge and streamflow, affecting dam and reservoir management.
This study aims to analyze the hydrological characteristics as a result of changes
in land use with the help of the SWAT hydrological model and can provide
recommendations on the best land use in the Koto Panjang Electric Power catchment
area. Based on the results of the analysis using the SWAT hydrological model, it was
seen that there were effects of land use changes in 2011 and 2014 on hydrological
characteristics; yield of water (WATER YLD) of 2,413.38 mm, and 1.008, 65 mm,
runoff coefficient (C) of 0.19 and 0.063 respectively, and river regime coefficient
(KRS) of 11.449 and 12.212, respectively. The best land use to be developed in
agricultural cultivation areas as a recommendation to maintain water stability in the
Koto Panjang hydropower catchment area is a simple and complex agroforestry
pattern in scenario III, which is run together with hydrological characteristics in the
form; water yield (WATER YLD) of 1.038, 41, surface runoff coefficient (C) of 0.023,
and river regime coefficient (KRS) of 11.13. The hydrological characteristics in
scenario III are far better than 2014 land use characteristics (existing).
Runoff is one of the most significant hydrological variables used in most of the water resources applications. Physiographically the area is characterized by undulating topography with plains and valleys. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers also known as hydrologic soil group method were used in this study. This method is adaptable and suitable approach for quick runoff estimation and is approximately easy to use with minimum data and it gives good result. From the study yearly rainfall and runoff were estimated easily. The study area covers an area of 466.02 km2, having maximum length of 36.5 km. The maximum and minimum elevation of the basin is 569 m and 341 m above MSL, respectively.
This study aims to analyze the hydrological characteristics as a result of changes
in land use with the help of the SWAT hydrological model and can provide
recommendations on the best land use in the Koto Panjang Electric Power catchment
area. Based on the results of the analysis using the SWAT hydrological model, it was
seen that there were effects of land use changes in 2011 and 2014 on hydrological
characteristics; yield of water (WATER YLD) of 2,413.38 mm, and 1.008, 65 mm,
runoff coefficient (C) of 0.19 and 0.063 respectively, and river regime coefficient
(KRS) of 11.449 and 12.212, respectively. The best land use to be developed in
agricultural cultivation areas as a recommendation to maintain water stability in the
Koto Panjang hydropower catchment area is a simple and complex agroforestry
pattern in scenario III, which is run together with hydrological characteristics in the
form; water yield (WATER YLD) of 1.038, 41, surface runoff coefficient (C) of 0.023,
and river regime coefficient (KRS) of 11.13. The hydrological characteristics in
scenario III are far better than 2014 land use characteristics (existing).
Runoff is one of the most significant hydrological variables used in most of the water resources applications. Physiographically the area is characterized by undulating topography with plains and valleys. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Numbers also known as hydrologic soil group method were used in this study. This method is adaptable and suitable approach for quick runoff estimation and is approximately easy to use with minimum data and it gives good result. From the study yearly rainfall and runoff were estimated easily. The study area covers an area of 466.02 km2, having maximum length of 36.5 km. The maximum and minimum elevation of the basin is 569 m and 341 m above MSL, respectively.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (The IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
2017 CalAPA Fall Asphalt Pavement Conference presentation: A summary of research conducted by the University of California Pavement Research Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Southern California on lifecycle impacts of cool pavement strategies in California.
A Land Data Assimilation System Utilizing Low Frequency Passive Microwave Rem...drboon
To address the gap in bridging global and smaller modelling scales, downscaling approaches have been reported as an appropriate solution. Downscaling on its own is not wholly adequate in the quest to produce local phenomena, and in this paper we use a physical downscaling method combined with data assimilation strategies, to obtain physically consistent land surface condition prediction. Using data assimilation strategies, it has been demonstrated that by minimizing a cost function, a solution utilizing imperfect models and observation data including observation errors is feasible. We demonstrate that by assimilating lower frequency passive microwave brightness temperature data using a validated theoretical radiative transfer model, we can obtain very good predictions that agree well with observed conditions.
In the vast landscape of cinema, stories have been told, retold, and reimagined in countless ways. At the heart of this narrative evolution lies the concept of a "remake". A successful remake allows us to revisit cherished tales through a fresh lens, often reflecting a different era's perspective or harnessing the power of advanced technology. Yet, the question remains, what makes a remake successful? Today, we will delve deeper into this subject, identifying the key ingredients that contribute to the success of a remake.
The International Journal of Engineering and Science (The IJES)theijes
The International Journal of Engineering & Science is aimed at providing a platform for researchers, engineers, scientists, or educators to publish their original research results, to exchange new ideas, to disseminate information in innovative designs, engineering experiences and technological skills. It is also the Journal's objective to promote engineering and technology education. All papers submitted to the Journal will be blind peer-reviewed. Only original articles will be published.
2017 CalAPA Fall Asphalt Pavement Conference presentation: A summary of research conducted by the University of California Pavement Research Center, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the University of Southern California on lifecycle impacts of cool pavement strategies in California.
A Land Data Assimilation System Utilizing Low Frequency Passive Microwave Rem...drboon
To address the gap in bridging global and smaller modelling scales, downscaling approaches have been reported as an appropriate solution. Downscaling on its own is not wholly adequate in the quest to produce local phenomena, and in this paper we use a physical downscaling method combined with data assimilation strategies, to obtain physically consistent land surface condition prediction. Using data assimilation strategies, it has been demonstrated that by minimizing a cost function, a solution utilizing imperfect models and observation data including observation errors is feasible. We demonstrate that by assimilating lower frequency passive microwave brightness temperature data using a validated theoretical radiative transfer model, we can obtain very good predictions that agree well with observed conditions.
In the vast landscape of cinema, stories have been told, retold, and reimagined in countless ways. At the heart of this narrative evolution lies the concept of a "remake". A successful remake allows us to revisit cherished tales through a fresh lens, often reflecting a different era's perspective or harnessing the power of advanced technology. Yet, the question remains, what makes a remake successful? Today, we will delve deeper into this subject, identifying the key ingredients that contribute to the success of a remake.
Tom Selleck Net Worth: A Comprehensive Analysisgreendigital
Over several decades, Tom Selleck, a name synonymous with charisma. From his iconic role as Thomas Magnum in the television series "Magnum, P.I." to his enduring presence in "Blue Bloods," Selleck has captivated audiences with his versatility and charm. As a result, "Tom Selleck net worth" has become a topic of great interest among fans. and financial enthusiasts alike. This article delves deep into Tom Selleck's wealth, exploring his career, assets, endorsements. and business ventures that contribute to his impressive economic standing.
Follow us on: Pinterest
Early Life and Career Beginnings
The Foundation of Tom Selleck's Wealth
Born on January 29, 1945, in Detroit, Michigan, Tom Selleck grew up in Sherman Oaks, California. His journey towards building a large net worth began with humble origins. , Selleck pursued a business administration degree at the University of Southern California (USC) on a basketball scholarship. But, his interest shifted towards acting. leading him to study at the Hills Playhouse under Milton Katselas.
Minor roles in television and films marked Selleck's early career. He appeared in commercials and took on small parts in T.V. series such as "The Dating Game" and "Lancer." These initial steps, although modest. laid the groundwork for his future success and the growth of Tom Selleck net worth. Breakthrough with "Magnum, P.I."
The Role that Defined Tom Selleck's Career
Tom Selleck's breakthrough came with the role of Thomas Magnum in the CBS television series "Magnum, P.I." (1980-1988). This role made him a household name and boosted his net worth. The series' popularity resulted in Selleck earning large salaries. leading to financial stability and increased recognition in Hollywood.
"Magnum P.I." garnered high ratings and critical acclaim during its run. Selleck's portrayal of the charming and resourceful private investigator resonated with audiences. making him one of the most beloved television actors of the 1980s. The success of "Magnum P.I." played a pivotal role in shaping Tom Selleck net worth, establishing him as a major star.
Film Career and Diversification
Expanding Tom Selleck's Financial Portfolio
While "Magnum, P.I." was a cornerstone of Selleck's career, he did not limit himself to television. He ventured into films, further enhancing Tom Selleck net worth. His filmography includes notable movies such as "Three Men and a Baby" (1987). which became the highest-grossing film of the year, and its sequel, "Three Men and a Little Lady" (1990). These box office successes contributed to his wealth.
Selleck's versatility allowed him to transition between genres. from comedies like "Mr. Baseball" (1992) to westerns such as "Quigley Down Under" (1990). This diversification showcased his acting range. and provided many income streams, reinforcing Tom Selleck net worth.
Television Resurgence with "Blue Bloods"
Sustaining Wealth through Consistent Success
In 2010, Tom Selleck began starring as Frank Reagan i
Maximizing Your Streaming Experience with XCIPTV- Tips for 2024.pdfXtreame HDTV
In today’s digital age, streaming services have become an integral part of our entertainment lives. Among the myriad of options available, XCIPTV stands out as a premier choice for those seeking seamless, high-quality streaming. This comprehensive guide will delve into the features, benefits, and user experience of XCIPTV, illustrating why it is a top contender in the IPTV industry.
From Slave to Scourge: The Existential Choice of Django Unchained. The Philos...Rodney Thomas Jr
#SSAPhilosophy #DjangoUnchained #DjangoFreeman #ExistentialPhilosophy #Freedom #Identity #Justice #Courage #Rebellion #Transformation
Welcome to SSA Philosophy, your ultimate destination for diving deep into the profound philosophies of iconic characters from video games, movies, and TV shows. In this episode, we explore the powerful journey and existential philosophy of Django Freeman from Quentin Tarantino’s masterful film, "Django Unchained," in our video titled, "From Slave to Scourge: The Existential Choice of Django Unchained. The Philosophy of Django Freeman!"
From Slave to Scourge: The Existential Choice of Django Unchained – The Philosophy of Django Freeman!
Join me as we delve into the existential philosophy of Django Freeman, uncovering the profound lessons and timeless wisdom his character offers. Through his story, we find inspiration in the power of choice, the quest for justice, and the courage to defy oppression. Django Freeman’s philosophy is a testament to the human spirit’s unyielding drive for freedom and justice.
Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe to SSA Philosophy for more in-depth explorations of the philosophies behind your favorite characters. Hit the notification bell to stay updated on our latest videos. Let’s discover the principles that shape these icons and the profound lessons they offer.
Django Freeman’s story is one of the most compelling narratives of transformation and empowerment in cinema. A former slave turned relentless bounty hunter, Django’s journey is not just a physical liberation but an existential quest for identity, justice, and retribution. This video delves into the core philosophical elements that define Django’s character and the profound choices he makes throughout his journey.
Link to video: https://youtu.be/GszqrXk38qk
From the Editor's Desk: 115th Father's day Celebration - When we see Father's day in Hindu context, Nanda Baba is the most vivid figure which comes to the mind. Nanda Baba who was the foster father of Lord Krishna is known to provide love, care and affection to Lord Krishna and Balarama along with his wife Yashoda; Letter’s to the Editor: Mother's Day - Mother is a precious life for their children. Mother is life breath for her children. Mother's lap is the world happiness whose debt can never be paid.
Panchayat Season 3 - Official Trailer.pdfSuleman Rana
The dearest series "Panchayat" is set to make a victorious return with its third season, and the fervor is discernible. The authority trailer, delivered on May 28, guarantees one more enamoring venture through the country heartland of India.
Jitendra Kumar keeps on sparkling as Abhishek Tripathi, the city-reared engineer who ends up functioning as the secretary of the Panchayat office in the curious town of Phulera. His nuanced depiction of a young fellow exploring the difficulties of country life while endeavoring to adjust to his new environmental factors has earned far and wide recognition.
Neena Gupta and Raghubir Yadav return as Manju Devi and Brij Bhushan Dubey, separately. Their dynamic science and immaculate acting rejuvenate the hardships of town administration. Gupta's depiction of the town Pradhan with an ever-evolving outlook, matched with Yadav's carefully prepared exhibition, adds profundity and credibility to the story.
New Difficulties and Experiences
The trailer indicates new difficulties anticipating the characters, as Abhishek keeps on wrestling with his part in the town and his yearnings for a superior future. The series has reliably offset humor with social editorial, and Season 3 looks ready to dig much more profound into the intricacies of rustic organization and self-awareness.
Watchers can hope to see a greater amount of the enchanting and particular residents who have become fan top picks. Their connections and the one of a kind cut of-life situations give a reviving and interesting portrayal of provincial India, featuring the two its appeal and its difficulties.
A Mix of Humor and Heart
One of the signs of "Panchayat" is its capacity to mix humor with sincere narrating. The trailer features minutes that guarantee to convey giggles, as well as scenes that pull at the heartstrings. This equilibrium has been a critical calculate the show's prosperity, resounding with crowds across different socioeconomics.
Creation Greatness
The creation quality remaining parts first rate, with the beautiful setting of Phulera town filling in as a scenery that upgrades the narrating. The meticulousness in portraying provincial life, joined with sharp composition and solid exhibitions, guarantees that "Panchayat" keeps on hanging out in the packed web series scene.
Expectation and Delivery
As the delivery date draws near, expectation for "Panchayat" Season 3 is at a record-breaking high. The authority trailer has previously created critical buzz, with fans enthusiastically anticipating the continuation of Abhishek Tripathi's excursion and the new undertakings that lie ahead in Phulera.
All in all, the authority trailer for "Panchayat" Season 3 recommends that watchers are in for another drawing in and engaging ride. Yet again with its charming characters, convincing story, and ideal mix of humor and show, the new season is set to enamor crowds. Write in your schedules and prepare to get back to the endearing universe of "Panchayat."
Skeem Saam in June 2024 available on ForumIsaac More
Monday, June 3, 2024 - Episode 241: Sergeant Rathebe nabs a top scammer in Turfloop. Meikie is furious at her uncle's reaction to the truth about Ntswaki.
Tuesday, June 4, 2024 - Episode 242: Babeile uncovers the truth behind Rathebe’s latest actions. Leeto's announcement shocks his employees, and Ntswaki’s ordeal haunts her family.
Wednesday, June 5, 2024 - Episode 243: Rathebe blocks Babeile from investigating further. Melita warns Eunice to stay clear of Mr. Kgomo.
Thursday, June 6, 2024 - Episode 244: Tbose surrenders to the police while an intruder meddles in his affairs. Rathebe's secret mission faces a setback.
Friday, June 7, 2024 - Episode 245: Rathebe’s antics reach Kganyago. Tbose dodges a bullet, but a nightmare looms. Mr. Kgomo accuses Melita of witchcraft.
Monday, June 10, 2024 - Episode 246: Ntswaki struggles on her first day back at school. Babeile is stunned by Rathebe’s romance with Bullet Mabuza.
Tuesday, June 11, 2024 - Episode 247: An unexpected turn halts Rathebe’s investigation. The press discovers Mr. Kgomo’s affair with a young employee.
Wednesday, June 12, 2024 - Episode 248: Rathebe chases a criminal, resorting to gunfire. Turf High is rife with tension and transfer threats.
Thursday, June 13, 2024 - Episode 249: Rathebe traps Kganyago. John warns Toby to stop harassing Ntswaki.
Friday, June 14, 2024 - Episode 250: Babeile is cleared to investigate Rathebe. Melita gains Mr. Kgomo’s trust, and Jacobeth devises a financial solution.
Monday, June 17, 2024 - Episode 251: Rathebe feels the pressure as Babeile closes in. Mr. Kgomo and Eunice clash. Jacobeth risks her safety in pursuit of Kganyago.
Tuesday, June 18, 2024 - Episode 252: Bullet Mabuza retaliates against Jacobeth. Pitsi inadvertently reveals his parents’ plans. Nkosi is shocked by Khwezi’s decision on LJ’s future.
Wednesday, June 19, 2024 - Episode 253: Jacobeth is ensnared in deceit. Evelyn is stressed over Toby’s case, and Letetswe reveals shocking academic results.
Thursday, June 20, 2024 - Episode 254: Elizabeth learns Jacobeth is in Mpumalanga. Kganyago's past is exposed, and Lehasa discovers his son is in KZN.
Friday, June 21, 2024 - Episode 255: Elizabeth confirms Jacobeth’s dubious activities in Mpumalanga. Rathebe lies about her relationship with Bullet, and Jacobeth faces theft accusations.
Monday, June 24, 2024 - Episode 256: Rathebe spies on Kganyago. Lehasa plans to retrieve his son from KZN, fearing what awaits.
Tuesday, June 25, 2024 - Episode 257: MaNtuli fears for Kwaito’s safety in Mpumalanga. Mr. Kgomo and Melita reconcile.
Wednesday, June 26, 2024 - Episode 258: Kganyago makes a bold escape. Elizabeth receives a shocking message from Kwaito. Mrs. Khoza defends her husband against scam accusations.
Thursday, June 27, 2024 - Episode 259: Babeile's skillful arrest changes the game. Tbose and Kwaito face a hostage crisis.
Friday, June 28, 2024 - Episode 260: Two women face the reality of being scammed. Turf is rocked by breaking
Meet Crazyjamjam - A TikTok Sensation | Blog EternalBlog Eternal
Crazyjamjam, the TikTok star everyone's talking about! Uncover her secrets to success, viral trends, and more in this exclusive feature on Blog Eternal.
Source: https://blogeternal.com/celebrity/crazyjamjam-leaks/
Scandal! Teasers June 2024 on etv Forum.co.zaIsaac More
Monday, 3 June 2024
Episode 47
A friend is compelled to expose a manipulative scheme to prevent another from making a grave mistake. In a frantic bid to save Jojo, Phakamile agrees to a meeting that unbeknownst to her, will seal her fate.
Tuesday, 4 June 2024
Episode 48
A mother, with her son's best interests at heart, finds him unready to heed her advice. Motshabi finds herself in an unmanageable situation, sinking fast like in quicksand.
Wednesday, 5 June 2024
Episode 49
A woman fabricates a diabolical lie to cover up an indiscretion. Overwhelmed by guilt, she makes a spontaneous confession that could be devastating to another heart.
Thursday, 6 June 2024
Episode 50
Linda unwittingly discloses damning information. Nhlamulo and Vuvu try to guide their friend towards the right decision.
Friday, 7 June 2024
Episode 51
Jojo's life continues to spiral out of control. Dintle weaves a web of lies to conceal that she is not as successful as everyone believes.
Monday, 10 June 2024
Episode 52
A heated confrontation between lovers leads to a devastating admission of guilt. Dintle's desperation takes a new turn, leaving her with dwindling options.
Tuesday, 11 June 2024
Episode 53
Unable to resort to violence, Taps issues a verbal threat, leaving Mdala unsettled. A sister must explain her life choices to regain her brother's trust.
Wednesday, 12 June 2024
Episode 54
Winnie makes a very troubling discovery. Taps follows through on his threat, leaving a woman reeling. Layla, oblivious to the truth, offers an incentive.
Thursday, 13 June 2024
Episode 55
A nosy relative arrives just in time to thwart a man's fatal decision. Dintle manipulates Khanyi to tug at Mo's heartstrings and get what she wants.
Friday, 14 June 2024
Episode 56
Tlhogi is shocked by Mdala's reaction following the revelation of their indiscretion. Jojo is in disbelief when the punishment for his crime is revealed.
Monday, 17 June 2024
Episode 57
A woman reprimands another to stay in her lane, leading to a damning revelation. A man decides to leave his broken life behind.
Tuesday, 18 June 2024
Episode 58
Nhlamulo learns that due to his actions, his worst fears have come true. Caiphus' extravagant promises to suppliers get him into trouble with Ndu.
Wednesday, 19 June 2024
Episode 59
A woman manages to kill two birds with one stone. Business doom looms over Chillax. A sobering incident makes a woman realize how far she's fallen.
Thursday, 20 June 2024
Episode 60
Taps' offer to help Nhlamulo comes with hidden motives. Caiphus' new ideas for Chillax have MaHilda excited. A blast from the past recognizes Dintle, not for her newfound fame.
Friday, 21 June 2024
Episode 61
Taps is hungry for revenge and finds a rope to hang Mdala with. Chillax's new job opportunity elicits mixed reactions from the public. Roommates' initial meeting starts off on the wrong foot.
Monday, 24 June 2024
Episode 62
Taps seizes new information and recruits someone on the inside. Mary's new job
Are the X-Men Marvel or DC An In-Depth Exploration.pdfXtreame HDTV
The world of comic books is vast and filled with iconic characters, gripping storylines, and legendary rivalries. Among the most famous groups of superheroes are the X-Men. Created in the early 1960s, the X-Men have become a cultural phenomenon, featuring in comics, animated series, and blockbuster movies. A common question among newcomers to the comic book world is: Are the X-Men Marvel or DC? This article delves into the history, creators, and significant moments of the X-Men to provide a comprehensive answer.
Hollywood Actress - The 250 hottest galleryZsolt Nemeth
Hollywood Actress amazon album eminent worldwide media, female-singer, actresses, alhletina-woman, 250 collection.
Highest and photoreal-print exclusive testament PC collage.
Focused television virtuality crime, novel.
The sheer afterlife of the work is activism-like hollywood-actresses point com.
173 Illustrate, 250 gallery, 154 blog, 120 TV serie logo, 17 TV president logo, 183 active hyperlink.
HD AI face enhancement 384 page plus Bowker ISBN, Congress LLCL or US Copyright.
As a film director, I have always been awestruck by the magic of animation. Animation, a medium once considered solely for the amusement of children, has undergone a significant transformation over the years. Its evolution from a rudimentary form of entertainment to a sophisticated form of storytelling has stirred my creativity and expanded my vision, offering limitless possibilities in the realm of cinematic storytelling.
The Evolution of Animation in Film - Mark Murphy Director
a3-4.park.pdf
1. KONKUK UNIVERSITY
5 August 2010
Assessment of MIROC3.2 hires Climate Change and
CLUE-s Land Use Change Impacts on Watershed
Hydrology using SWAT
PARK, Jong-Yoon
Ph.D. Candidate
PARK, Min-Ji / JOH, Hyung-Kyung / SHIN, Hyung-Jin
Ph. D. Candidate / Graduate Student / Ph.D. Candidate
KIM, Seong-Joon
Professor
A3-5
2. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Contents
1. Introduction
2. Study Area Description and Data for Model Evaluation
3. Methods
• SWAT hydrological model
• Downscaling technique of GCM climate data
• Land use change model (CLUE-s)
4. Results and Discussion
• Sensitivity Analysis
• SWAT model calibration and validation
• The MIROC3.2 hires A1B future climate data
• The future predicted land use by CLUE
5. The Future Impact on Watershed Hydrology
6. Concluding Remarks
1/22
3. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Background and Purpose
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report reaffirms
that "global warming" is occurring (IPCC, 2001).
Climate change affects the hydrological cycle, thus modifying the
transformation and transport characteristics of sediment and nutrients.
For the adaptation due to climate change as a fixed fact in the future,
watershed decision makers require quantitative results for the
establishment of strategy.
Land use is the essential information in watershed hydrology.
The effects of land use are directly linked to changes hydrologic components in
watershed such as evapotranspiration, surface runoff, groundwater, and
streamflow.
This study is to evaluate the future potential climate and land use change
impacts on watershed hydrology for a 6,642.0 km2 dam watershed of
South Korea.
2/22
5. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Study Area
Chungjudam study watershed
Watershed area : 6,642.0 km2
Annual average precipitation : 1,359.5 mm
Annual average temperature : 9.4 ℃
Forest area : 82.3 % (5573.1 km2)
4/22
Lake
Kilometers
YW #1 YW #2
Legend
Weather Station
China
Japan
South Korea
Chungjudam / Outlet
6. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Preparation of input data
Data set for SWAT model
Data Set Source Scale Data Description / Properties
Terrain
Korea National
Geography Institute
1/5,000 Digital Elevation Model (DEM) ; 100 X 100 m
Soil
Korea Rural Development
Administration
1/25,000
Soil classifications and physical properties such as
bulk density, texture, and saturated conductivity.
Land use
Landsat TM
Satellite Image in 2000
30 m
Land use classifications such as paddy, grass, and
forest.
Weather
Korea Meteorological
Administration
Daily
Precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature,
mean wind speed and relative humidity data from
1995 to 2006
Streamflow
Han River
Flood Control Office
Daily Streamflow data from three gauging stations
5/22
7. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Preparation of input data
Data set for CLUE-s model
6/22
Data Set Description
Spatial
Land use map
6 Landsat land uses (1975, 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, and 2000) of 5
classes (water, bare field, grass, forest, and agriculture)
Driving factors
11 driving factors were evaluated by following stepwise logistics
regression
Area restrictions (option) Such as the nature reserve area
Non-
spatial
Land requirements
For each year of the simulation these requirements determine the total
area of each land use type that needs to be allocated by the model
Spatial policies (option)
This option indicates areas where land use changes are restricted
through spatial (land use) policies or tenure status
Conversion elasticity
The conversion elasticity is one the land use type specific setting that
determine the temporal dynamics of the simulation
Land use conversion
sequences
Not all land use changes are possible and some land use changes are
very unlikely
8. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Soil and Water Assessment Tool (Arnold et al., 1998)
SWAT is a continuous, long-term, and distributed-parameter model designed to
predict the impact of land management practices on the hydrology and sediment
and contaminant transport in agricultural watersheds.
SWAT subdivides a watershed into sub-basin connected by a stream network,
and further delineates HRUs (Hydrologic Response Unit) consisting of unique
combinations of land cover and soils within each sub-basin.
The hydrological cycle as simulated by SWAT is based on the water balance
equation:
SWAT Hydrological Model
)
(
1
0 gw
seep
a
surf
t
i
day
t Q
W
E
Q
R
SW
SW −
−
−
−
+
= ∑
=
SWt = Final soil water content (mm)
SW0 = Initial soil water content on day i (mm)
Rday = Amount of precipitation on day i (mm)
Qsurf = Amount of surface runoff on day i (mm)
Ea = Amount of evapotranspiration on day i (mm)
Wseep = Amount of water entering the vadose zone from the soil profile on day i (mm)
Qgw = Amount of return flow on day i (mm)
7/22
9. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
General Circulation Models (GCMs)
Model MIROC3.2 hires
Center
NIES
(National Institute for Environmental Studies)
Country Japan
Scenario A1B, B1
Grid size 1.125° × 1.125°
Nakdong River
Seomjin River
Yeongsan
River
Geum River
Study Area
MIROC3.2 hires
(1.1°×1.1°)
Han River
Future Climate Data from GCMs (MIROC3.2 hires)
The GCM (MIROC3.2 hires) data by two SRES climate change scenarios of the
IPCC AR4 (fourth assessment report) were adopted.
The MIROC3.2 hires model, developed at the NIES of the Japan, had the highest
spatial resolution of approximately 1.1° among the selected model in IPCC AR4.
8/22
10. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
)
T
T
(
T
T' his
GCM,
fut
GCM,
meas
fut
GCM, −
+
=
For temperature
)
P
P
(
P
P' his
GCM,
fut
GCM,
meas
fut
GCM, ÷
×
=
For precipitation
Downscaling Technique of GCM Data
Bias correction method (Sharma et al. 2007; Hansen et al. 2006)
The GCM data was corrected to ensure that 30 years observed data (1977-2006,
baseline period).
GCM model output of the same period have similar statistical properties among the
various statistical transformations.
9/22
20th Century Simulations
(20C3M) : 1977 - 2006
21th Century Simulations
(A1B) : 2007 - 2100
Past Future
PCP Temp
Factor: -2.20
Factor: 1.08
11. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Change Factor (CF) method
(Alcamo et al. 1997; Droogers and Aerts
2006)
Difference Analysis
CF Downscaling
Each day of 2000 weather data (base year)
+
Percentage change in monthly mean
=
Downscaled GCM data (daily)
30 Years observed data
of each weather station
(1977 - 2006)
Baseline
SRES A1B and B1
(2020s: 2010 - 2039)
(2050s: 2040 - 2069)
(2080s: 2070 - 2099)
Future climate data
Percentage change in monthly mean
Observation data : monthly mean
Future climate data : monthly mean
GCM model was downscaled using
Change factor (CF) method.
Monthly mean changes in equivalent
variables from the 30 years data
(1977-2006, baseline period) and
three GCM simulations for three time
periods: 2020s, 2050s and 2080s
were calculated for the GCM grid cell.
The percentage changes in monthly
mean were applied to each day of
2000 weather data (base year for
future assessment) of each weather
station.
10/22
Downscaling Technique of GCM Data
12. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Land Use Change Model
CLUE-s land use change model (Veldkamp and Fresco 1996; Verburg et al. 1999)
The Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s)
was developed to simulate land use change.
The model is subdivided into two distinct modules, namely a non-spatial demand
module and a spatially explicit allocation procedure.
The non-spatial module calculates the area change for all land use types
The spatial module are translated into land use changes at different locations within the
study region
11/22
13. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Land Use Change Model
Driving factors
The probability maps of each land use type were prepared from the logistic
regression results.
The forward stepwise logistics regression and relative operating characteristics
(ROC) analyses between 5 land use types and 11 driving factors.
12/22
Driving factor
Land use type
Urban Bare field Grass Forest Agriculture
Altitude − 0.0014 0.0010 0.0019 0.0007
Slope − − − 0.0081 −
Aspect − - 0.0024 − - 0.0006 −
Distance to national road - 0.0003 - 0.0001 - 0.0001 - 0.0001 - 0.0002
Distance to local road − − − 0.0002 −
Distance to city - 0.0001 − - 4.0E-05 0.0001 −
Distance to stream - 0.0004 − − 4.0E-05 −
Soil drainage class − − − - 0.1256 - 0.0960
Soil type − − 0.1100 0.0774 −
Soil depth − − − - 0.0027 −
Land use in the soil − − − - 0.0346 −
Constant - 3.5653 - 5.2972 - 4.800 - 1.6195 - 2.2253
ROC 0.734 0.748 0.602 0.778 0.646
−: not significant at 0.05 significant level, thus excluded in model
14. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Sensitivity Analysis (SA)
(1)
(2)
(3) (4) (5)
(6) (7) (8)
(9)
(10)
Latin Hypercube (LH) – One-factor-At-a-Time (OAT)
A parameter SA provides insights on which parameters contribute most to the
output variance due to input variability. In this study, we performed an LH-OAT SA.
The SA was performed for 26 parameters of hydrology that may have a potential to
influence hydrologic components.
Using the SA results calibrated parameters for hydrology.
13/22
15. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
SWAT Calibration and Validation
Streamflow
Calibration period : 1998-2000 / Validation period : 2001-2003
Using daily discharge records at three calibration points
YW #1
YW #2
Chungjudam
R2: 0.76, NSE: 0.64
14/22
R2: 0.71, NSE: 0.52
R2: 0.89, NSE: 0.72
16. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Climate Change Scenario
Future climate data by applying CF downscaling method
15/22
Temperature change (℃)
2020s: + 1.9 ℃
2050s: + 3.5 ℃
2080s: + 4.8 ℃
The future temperature will give warming for the whole season from results of CF
downscaling. Especially, the seasonal temperature change is that the intensity of
big increase is found in Winter.
Temperature change
Spring Summer Autumn
Winter
17. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Climate Change Scenario
Future climate data by applying CF downscaling method
16/22
Precipitation change
Spring Summer Autumn
Winter
Precipitation change (%)
The future precipitation showed general tendency of decrease for August and
September. Other months showed the increase tendency on the whole.
2020s: + 17.1 %
2050s: + 23.1 %
2080s: + 34.4 %
18. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Land Use Change Scenario
Land use change areas in the future based on 2000
Land use in 2000
2020 2050 2080
By applying the derived regression models and the prepared land uses, the future
land uses of 2020, 2050, and 2080 were predicted.
The most changed areas were occurred around lake of Chungjudam, and near the
urban area.
17/22
19. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Land Use Change Scenario
Future predicted land use by CLUE-s
18/22
The 2080 forest and agriculture decreased 6.2 % and 1.6 % based on 2000.
Meanwhile, the urban, bare field, and grass increased 1.7 %, 1.3 %, and 4.8 %
respectively in 2080.
The big increase of grass was come from the steady construction of pasture during
1970s and 1980s and golf courses in 1990s within the watershed.
20. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Future Impact on Watershed Hydrology
Predicted hydrologic components - ET and SR
19/22
2020s 2050s 2080s
+12.6 % +20.1 % +28.8 %
+17.3 % +40.7 % +57.5 %
Evapotranspiration
(mm)
Surface
Runoff
(mm)
ET
SR
The future annual ET increased in all scenarios, especially showing big increases in
Mar, May and June.
Surface runoff was predicted to change between + 17.3 % ~ + 57.7 % depend on
precipitation, especially showing big increase in June.
21. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Future Impact on Watershed Hydrology
Predicted hydrologic components - GW and ST
20/22
GW
ST
+19.7 % +29.8 % +42.5 %
+19.6 % +40.5 % +58.4 %
Groundwater
Recharge
(mm)
Streamflow
(mm)
The future GW and ST were more affected by the land use change compared to the
ET and SR. Annual GW and ST increased gradually going by the future.
The changes will also affect the dam operation rule of Aug. and Sep. flood control,
and reservoir water level management of Oct.
2020s 2050s 2080s
22. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Concluding Remarks
The future climate data of the MIROC3.2 hires showed that temperature
increased in four seasons, and precipitation increased in summer, but
decreased in autumn.
The future land use of the CLUE-s showed that forest and agriculture
decreased 6.2 % and 1.6 % in 2080 based on 2000. Meanwhile, the urban,
bare filed, and grass increased 1.7 %, 1.3 %, and 4.8 % in 2080.
By applying the future MIROC3.2 downscaled climate and CLUE-s land
use conditions, the SWAT was run to evaluate the future watershed impact
on hydrologic components viz. ET, SR, GW and ST.
The future ET was mostly affected by the climate change than land use
change. SR were mostly affected by the climate change than land use change.
The 2080s ST and GW showed + 39.8 %, + 28.1 % by climate change only
while + 58.4 %, + 59.4 % change by climate plus land use changes scenario.
Climate change impact on watershed hydrology is more sensitive than land
use change.
Groundwater resources will become more important in the future.
21/22
23. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Concluding Remarks
We need efforts to sustain the groundwater resources by the proper soil
and land cover conservation practice, and the integrated watershed
management to secure stable streamflow.
The future monthly dam inflow change gave us the clue for the future
adjustment of dam operation rule for both efficient water use and flood
control.
The future hydrologic components cannot be projected exactly due to the
uncertainty in climate and land use change scenarios and models outputs
(GCM, SWAT, CLUE-s).
The annual change and seasonal variation of hydrologic components due
to future temperature increase and precipitation and land use change
should be evaluated and incorporated into water resources planning and
management in order to promote more sustainable water demand and
water availability for a stream watershed of our country.
22/22
24. 2010 International SWAT Conference KONKUK UNIVERSITY
Thank You
This research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through
the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of
Education, Science and Technology (2009-0080745) and by a grant (code #
2-2-3) from Sustainable Water Resources Research Center of 21st Century
Frontier Research Program.
http://msyouth.blogspot.com/2008/04/global-warming-videos.html