- Developing a national GHG inventory requires integrating data from different sources using methods that rely on data, assumptions, and models. Higher tier methods (Tier 3) use spatially-explicit models to track emissions at the unit level and better capture variations, estimate carbon flows between pools, and project emission scenarios. - Indonesia has developed the Indonesian National Carbon Accounting System (INCAS) as a Tier 3 integrating tool to produce detailed annual estimates of emissions and removals to support policy and meet reporting needs. The system uses land cover change data and biophysical models within a transparent framework to facilitate verification. - Higher tiers provide more accurate estimates and ability to analyze management impacts but require consideration of reporting needs

1. Challenges and Opportunities
in Implementing Higher Tiers
in the National GHG Inventory
Haruni Krisnawati
Forestry and Environment Research, Development and Innovation Agency
Ministry of Environment and Forestry, Indonesia
Panel Discussion:
The Use of Models in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories
IPCC Pavilion COP 25 UNFCCC, Madrid-Spain, 3 December 2019

2. Introduction
• Developing systems for GHG inventory and reporting GHG emissions
and removals requires combination of data from different sources 
this will need a choice of integration method.
• Integration methods rely on:
– Data
– Assumptions
– Models
• Integration methods are able to:
– facilitate the combination of data to generate estimates
– simplify reporting by automatically assigning land uses and GHG
emissions to the required classes based on rules consistent with
national circumstances
Role of science & research
to support and improve

3. Approach-TIER
SCIENCE/RESEARCH NEEDS
Integration Framework
MRV
Institutional
Arrangements
Measurement
and
Estimation
Reporting
and
Verification
Policy and
Design
Decisions

4. Methods of Integration and Estimation
National GHG Inventory
• The activity data X emission/removal factor
=
Activity data Emission Factors Emissions
estimates
CO2e
(tCO2/ha/year)
Dynamics of
land use change
(ha/year)
Dynamics of
carbon change
X
• In general, the method is more suitable in landscapes with a few
sequential changes through time
Current integration method: Tier 2

5. • We have developed Indonesian
National Carbon Accounting System
(INCAS): an integrating system for
accounting GHG emissions and
removals, which can be used to
support GHG inventory for land-
based sector and MRV requirements
for forests and peatlands.
Moving toward a higher tier (Tier 3)
http://incas.menlhk.go.id/

6. Motivated to develop a tier 3 system
with key features:
 Nationally consistent GHG accounting system, with TACCC
principles;
 Produces detailed estimates of both emissions and removals
annually;
 Quantify historical, present & future emissions scenarios –
support policy design, implementation and monitoring;
 Flexible approach to support multiple reporting requirements;
 Continuous improvement, use the best available data.

7. • Integrated frameworks, with spatially-referenced models (representative of
Tier 3, Approach 2/3 methods); the spatially-explicit methods (representative
of Tier 3, Approach 3 methods) which track individual units of land (polygons
or pixels).
Integration and Estimation
• In general, the method has a greater ability to analyse the effects of
management on emissions and can project emissions estimates to enable
scenario analyses.
INCAS integration method: Tier 3
Integrating tool

8. General modelling approach
LANDSAT DATA
Annual
Annual cover change
Forest Type Forest Function
SoilConcession
CropFire
BIOPHYSICAL DATA
Clearing
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
Revegetation
2000-2001
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
2011-2012
CARBONACCOUNTINGMODELANDTOOL
Predictingcarbonstocksandcarbonflowinforestandpeatlandsystems
AREA OF CHANGE BY LAND USE AND ACTIVITY
GREENHOUSE GAS ACCOUNT
LAND MANAGEMENT DATA
Source: Krisnawati et al (2015)

9. How to capture the transfers of carbon
between the carbon pools
Input:
• Location of change
• Initial condition (C stock)
• Growth, turnover, decomposition
• Forest management events
Output:
• Estimate of carbon flows between
different carbon pools and
ultimately emissions and removals.
Source: Krisnawati et al (2015)

10. INCAS Framework
Standard Methods
Support for
Reporting

11. More detailed outputs
can be generated

12. The models’ outputs are verifiable
– VERIFICATION
• Transparency is built into the modeling
and reporting system to facilitate quality
control (QC) and quality assurance (QA),
and external verification of results. This
includes transparent summary of the
methodology, data inputs, definitions,
assumptions, results and any limitations
of the analysis.
• Description of the data and results are
documented and compiled in databases

13. Advantages of using models
• Capability to capture more detailed spatial variations and detail emissions.
• Full carbon accounting model – could track the flow of carbon between
different carbon pool.
• Full spatial modeling – could track the change on individual units of land.
• A higher tier integrated system has a greater ability to analyse the effects
of management on emissions and can project emissions estimates 
could be used as a guidance for implementation of the integrated
monitoring and reporting system.
1) Reduce uncertainty and improve accuracy of estimates in the national inventory;
2) Improve spatial and temporal resolution of data and further disaggregating data
categories;
3) Improve potential to correctly estimate impacts of mitigation on national inventories

14. Challenges:
Selecting an integration method/model requires
consideration of practical and scientific issues:
– National and international reporting requirements;
– Data availability;
– Technical means and capacity;
– Standards by which the system and its outputs will be
assessed;
– Availability of integration tools and the expertise to
implement this;
– Flexibility and scalability;
– Cost effectiveness.

15. h.krisnawati@yahoo.co.id
harunikrisnawati@gmail.com