1. The document describes a modelling system for assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture. 2. It includes models for downscaling climate data, hydrological modelling, crop modelling, and an economic model integrated into a central database. 3. The system is being developed to provide methodology, software tools, documentation, and sample data to allow integrated impact assessment from climate scenarios to economic effects.

1. FAO-MOSAICC FAO NRC Climate Impact Team (2010) EC/FAO programme on “Linking information and decision-making to improve food security” (GCP/GLO/243/EC) Theme 3: climate change and food security

2. A Mo delling S ystem for A gricultural I mpacts of C limate C hange Integrated impact assessment on crop yields, from climate data handling to economic assessment Based on the experience of the FAO/WB CC impact study in Morocco Semi-empirical spatially explicit modelling Expected outcomes: Methodology Software toolbox Tool documentation Sample data and tutorials

3. Methodology 4 Main parts Climate data downscaling and interpolation (data from GCM used by IPCC) Statistical downscaling tool R package for interpolation with AURELHY Hydrological modelling: country-wide evaluation of the water resources (STREAM)

4. Methodology 4 Main parts Crop modelling (AMS and AquaCrop): yield projections under climate change scenarios using a crop forecasting approach Economic model: dynamic general equilibrium model (“Economically what would be the optimal reaction from the economic agents to changing yields under cc scenarios”)

5. Software architecture All modelling carried out on a central server All models are connected to a central database with which they exchange data Users send jobs through web interfaces Use of free software Web interfaces solve cross platform issues

6. Flowchart Server & Database Modeler Interface External users interface Climate Scenario Downscaling Historical weather records Downscaled Climate scenarios Hydrological Modelling Crop growth Simulation Economic Modelling IPCC GCM Low Resolution Scenarios Historical discharge records Water availability for irrigation Historical water use statistics Historical yield records Yield projections Current state of economy Macroeconomic scenarios Economic impacts Crop parameters Soil data Technology trend scenarios Soil and Land use data Dam data

7. Example of interface Interface for the interpolation with AURELHY

8. Partners Service d'écologie numérique des milieux aquatiques Université de Mons Santander Meteorology Group Universidad de Cantabria Institute for Environmental studies Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam FAO AgrometShell FAO AquaCrop Water Insight Mesinet

9. Current status Current status: finalizing software development Prototype + documentation foreseen for the end of the year Real world tests in 2011 (validation and implementation) in two countries