This document discusses the epidemiological transition theory, which describes how disease patterns change as populations develop from less to more developed nations. It outlines three stages of transition: 1) the age of pestilence and famine, characterized by infectious diseases; 2) the age of receding pandemics, where sanitation improvements reduced infectious diseases; and 3) the age of chronic diseases, where non-communicable diseases increase. Population pyramids and their shapes representing growth stages are also examined. Factors influencing population changes like birth rates, death rates, and sex ratios are defined.
The general shift from acute infectious and deficiency diseases characteristic of underdevelopment to chronic non-communicable diseases characteristic of modernization and advanced levels of development is usually referred to as the "epidemiological transition".
This presentation defines epidemiology and the theory of epidemiologic transition proposed by Abdel Omran. It explains that the epidemiologic transition is the process by which patterns of disease and mortality shift from infectious/parasitic diseases to degenerative and man-made diseases as a society develops. The theory outlines five stages: 1) pestilence and famine dominated by infectious diseases, 2) receding pandemics as sanitation and medicine improve, 3) increasing rates of degenerative diseases like heart disease and cancer, and 4) a delayed degenerative stage where life expectancy increases through medical advances but non-communicable diseases rise due to obesity and sedentary lifestyles. The presentation provides details on each stage, highlighting the Black
1) The document discusses guidelines for determining causality when an exposure is associated with an outcome.
2) It involves a two stage process of first assessing potential biases or alternative explanations, then if unlikely, applying guidelines for causal inference.
3) The guidelines include considering the strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, dose-response relationship, plausibility, coherence, experimental evidence, and analogy of the association. No one guideline can prove or disprove causality but together they can help determine if causation is a likely explanation.
This document discusses cohort studies. A cohort study compares outcomes between groups that differ in their exposure to a risk factor. It involves selecting groups of individuals, measuring their exposure to a risk factor, observing them for a defined outcome, and analyzing any association. The key elements are defining the study question, selecting and measuring exposure in study populations, following up to ascertain outcomes, and analyzing results like incidence rates and relative risks. Cohort studies provide strong evidence but require large sample sizes and long follow-up periods.
This document discusses criteria for determining causal association. It defines association and different types of association, including spurious, indirect, and direct causal association. Bradford Hill's criteria for making causal inferences are described, including strength of association, dose-response relationship, consistency of findings, biological plausibility, specificity of association, and temporal relationship. Examples for each criterion are provided, such as the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. The document concludes with a summary of association types and causal association criteria.
This document discusses causal relationships in epidemiology. It defines causation as an event or condition that plays an important role in the occurrence of an outcome. There are different types of associations, including spurious, indirect, and direct associations. Direct associations can be one-to-one or multifactorial. Guidelines for assessing causality include temporality, strength of association, dose-response relationship, and consistency of findings. Causal inference involves applying these guidelines and ruling out alternative explanations like bias or chance to determine if an observed association is likely causal.
Bias, confounding and fallacies in epidemiologyTauseef Jawaid
This document discusses three major threats to internal validity in epidemiology: bias, confounding, and fallacies. It focuses on defining and providing examples of bias, specifically selection bias and information bias. Selection bias can occur when comparison groups are not representative of the target populations due to factors like non-random selection or differential loss to follow up. Information bias, also called misclassification bias, results from errors in measuring exposures or outcomes, which can be differential or non-differential. Methods to control for biases like blinding subjects and using multiple questions are also outlined.
Health indicators are measures used to describe the health of a population and guide health policy. They include morbidity indicators like prevalence and incidence that measure disease burden, and mortality indicators like crude death rate. Common health indicators also track conditions like low birth weight and obesity. The document outlines how indicators like prevalence, incidence, and various death rates are calculated. It explains that prevalence represents existing cases at a time, while incidence measures new cases over time. Prevalence is influenced by incidence, mortality, and cure rates. Health indicators are important epidemiological tools.
The general shift from acute infectious and deficiency diseases characteristic of underdevelopment to chronic non-communicable diseases characteristic of modernization and advanced levels of development is usually referred to as the "epidemiological transition".
This presentation defines epidemiology and the theory of epidemiologic transition proposed by Abdel Omran. It explains that the epidemiologic transition is the process by which patterns of disease and mortality shift from infectious/parasitic diseases to degenerative and man-made diseases as a society develops. The theory outlines five stages: 1) pestilence and famine dominated by infectious diseases, 2) receding pandemics as sanitation and medicine improve, 3) increasing rates of degenerative diseases like heart disease and cancer, and 4) a delayed degenerative stage where life expectancy increases through medical advances but non-communicable diseases rise due to obesity and sedentary lifestyles. The presentation provides details on each stage, highlighting the Black
1) The document discusses guidelines for determining causality when an exposure is associated with an outcome.
2) It involves a two stage process of first assessing potential biases or alternative explanations, then if unlikely, applying guidelines for causal inference.
3) The guidelines include considering the strength, consistency, specificity, temporality, dose-response relationship, plausibility, coherence, experimental evidence, and analogy of the association. No one guideline can prove or disprove causality but together they can help determine if causation is a likely explanation.
This document discusses cohort studies. A cohort study compares outcomes between groups that differ in their exposure to a risk factor. It involves selecting groups of individuals, measuring their exposure to a risk factor, observing them for a defined outcome, and analyzing any association. The key elements are defining the study question, selecting and measuring exposure in study populations, following up to ascertain outcomes, and analyzing results like incidence rates and relative risks. Cohort studies provide strong evidence but require large sample sizes and long follow-up periods.
This document discusses criteria for determining causal association. It defines association and different types of association, including spurious, indirect, and direct causal association. Bradford Hill's criteria for making causal inferences are described, including strength of association, dose-response relationship, consistency of findings, biological plausibility, specificity of association, and temporal relationship. Examples for each criterion are provided, such as the relationship between smoking and lung cancer. The document concludes with a summary of association types and causal association criteria.
This document discusses causal relationships in epidemiology. It defines causation as an event or condition that plays an important role in the occurrence of an outcome. There are different types of associations, including spurious, indirect, and direct associations. Direct associations can be one-to-one or multifactorial. Guidelines for assessing causality include temporality, strength of association, dose-response relationship, and consistency of findings. Causal inference involves applying these guidelines and ruling out alternative explanations like bias or chance to determine if an observed association is likely causal.
Bias, confounding and fallacies in epidemiologyTauseef Jawaid
This document discusses three major threats to internal validity in epidemiology: bias, confounding, and fallacies. It focuses on defining and providing examples of bias, specifically selection bias and information bias. Selection bias can occur when comparison groups are not representative of the target populations due to factors like non-random selection or differential loss to follow up. Information bias, also called misclassification bias, results from errors in measuring exposures or outcomes, which can be differential or non-differential. Methods to control for biases like blinding subjects and using multiple questions are also outlined.
Health indicators are measures used to describe the health of a population and guide health policy. They include morbidity indicators like prevalence and incidence that measure disease burden, and mortality indicators like crude death rate. Common health indicators also track conditions like low birth weight and obesity. The document outlines how indicators like prevalence, incidence, and various death rates are calculated. It explains that prevalence represents existing cases at a time, while incidence measures new cases over time. Prevalence is influenced by incidence, mortality, and cure rates. Health indicators are important epidemiological tools.
Epidemiology has several common practical applications. It is used to investigate infectious diseases through routine surveillance by health departments. Epidemiologists in hospitals explore causes of hospital-acquired infections. It also evaluates the impact of public health policies on trends like smoking rates and obesity. Overall, epidemiology provides data to understand community health issues and disease risks, identify disease syndromes, uncover disease causes, and evaluate treatments and interventions.
The document discusses epidemiology and its applications. It defines epidemiology and describes its purposes such as preventing and controlling health problems. It outlines epidemiological methods like observational and experimental studies. Descriptive epidemiology aims to study disease frequency and distribution while analytical epidemiology tests hypotheses. The roles of nurses in applying epidemiological concepts to assess community health needs and evaluate prevention programs are also highlighted.
Descriptive epidemiology involves systematically studying the occurrence and distribution of disease in populations. It describes patterns of disease by person, place, and time. Descriptive studies are the first step in epidemiological research as they observe disease occurrence and distribution without inferring causation. They provide basic data on disease frequency and characteristics in a population.
The document discusses approaches for studying disease etiology, including observational studies like ecological, cohort, and case-control studies as well as randomized trials. It also examines how evidence for a causal relationship between a factor and disease has been established through a sequence of studies, from initial clinical observations to randomized trials. Key figures in establishing causal relationships for various diseases are also mentioned, such as Alton Ochsner's work linking smoking to lung cancer and Barry Marshall and J. Robin Warren's discovery of H. pylori's role in peptic ulcers. Guidelines for determining causation, such as those from the Surgeon General and Bradford Hill, are also reviewed.
This document discusses different risk measures used in epidemiology, including relative risk, odds ratio, and attributable risk. Relative risk measures the strength of association between an exposure and disease based on prospective studies. Odds ratio is used similarly in case-control studies when relative risk cannot be directly calculated. Attributable risk determines how much disease can be attributed to a specific exposure by comparing disease rates in exposed and unexposed groups. These measures provide important information for evaluating disease causation and determining potential disease prevention through reducing exposures.
This document discusses various methods for measuring disease frequency and occurrence in populations, including rates, ratios, proportions, prevalence, and incidence. It provides examples of how to calculate rates of prevalence and incidence. Prevalence is a measure of existing cases at a point in time, while incidence describes new cases occurring over time. Both are important for epidemiological research, disease surveillance, and health planning.
This document discusses different types of epidemiological study designs. It outlines non-interventional studies like exploratory, descriptive, and analytical observational studies. It also describes interventional studies, including experimental randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental designs. For each study type, the document explains their purpose, design, analysis methods, advantages, and disadvantages. Choosing an appropriate study design depends on ethical issues, available resources, validity of results needed, and the topic being examined.
The document discusses the epidemiologic transition, which describes the transition of major causes of death from infectious diseases to chronic and degenerative diseases as populations adopt behaviors associated with economic development and improved living standards. It describes three models of transition - the classic Western model over 200 years, an accelerated model in places like Japan and Eastern Europe, and a delayed model in most low-income developing countries since WWII. The transition is accompanied by changes in mortality and morbidity patterns, as well as demographic changes as fertility declines and populations age.
An overview of a key statistical technique in epidemiology – standardization - is introduced. The process and application of both direct and indirect standardization in improving the validity of comparisons between populations are described.
Descriptive epidemiology focuses on identifying patterns and frequencies of health events in populations. It considers person, place, and time characteristics. Person characteristics describe demographic and behavioral attributes of individuals. Place characteristics describe geographic and environmental attributes. Time characteristics describe cyclical or secular trends. Together, person-place-time variables describe how health outcomes result from interactions between individuals and their environment.
The document discusses various measures used to quantify disease occurrence and mortality rates. It defines key terms like prevalence, incidence, rates, ratios and standardized rates. Prevalence is a snapshot of disease at a point in time while incidence describes new cases occurring over time. Crude rates are calculated for the entire population while specific rates are for subpopulations. Standardized rates allow comparison between populations by adjusting for differences in age or other distributions. Methods like direct and indirect standardization are used to derive adjusted rates. Mortality data from vital statistics provides important public health indicators but has issues like accuracy of documentation and changing disease classifications over time.
Epidemiology is the study of how diseases are distributed in populations and the factors that influence this. It examines why some people develop illnesses and others do not. Epidemiology helps public health officials understand health problems in communities and find ways to control and prevent diseases. The history of epidemiology shows how early physicians like Hippocrates linked environmental factors to health, and later scientists such as John Snow used epidemiological findings to control outbreaks. Modern epidemiology involves counting cases, measuring populations, analyzing health problems, applying solutions, and evaluating their effectiveness. It provides insights used in public health programs and patient care.
This document discusses case-control studies and their design and analysis. It begins by defining case-control studies as observational studies where subjects are sampled based on disease presence or absence and their prior exposure is then determined. It describes key features, need, steps in design including case and control selection. It then covers statistical analysis including odds ratios to measure risk associated with exposure and interpretations. It discusses effect modification and confounding, and analytical tools like stratification and multivariate modeling to control for confounding.
This document discusses different types of epidemiologic study designs including descriptive studies, analytical studies, and experimental studies. It provides details on descriptive epidemiology, analytic epidemiology, and different types of observational and experimental study designs such as cohort studies, case-control studies, randomized controlled trials, and ecological studies. Key aspects of cohort and case-control study designs are outlined including their advantages and disadvantages. Potential sources of error and bias in epidemiologic studies are also reviewed.
The document discusses descriptive epidemiology and provides definitions and examples. Descriptive epidemiology studies the occurrence and distribution of disease. It describes the who, where, and when of diseases. Key terms discussed include:
- Time trends which can be secular (long-term), periodic (interruptions to secular trends), or seasonal (cyclical yearly variations).
- Place patterns looking at geographic distributions of disease.
- Person characteristics of those affected such as age, sex, occupation.
Descriptive studies are the first step in understanding diseases and include case reports, case series, and cross-sectional prevalence studies.
Introduction to Epidemiology
1. Define epidemiology
2. Describe the history of epidemiology
3. Describe aims and components of
epidemiology
4. Discuss on the uses of epidemiology
Introduction to Epidemiology
History of Epidemiology.
Definition of Epidemiology and its components.
Epidemiological Basic concepts.
Aims of Epidemiology.
Ten Uses of Epidemiology.
Scope or The Areas of Application .
Types of Epidemiological Studies.
This document discusses sources of error and bias in epidemiological studies. It describes how selection bias can occur when the study population is not representative of the target population, due to factors like differential participation rates or loss to follow up. Selection bias can lead the study to produce either overestimates or underestimates of exposure-disease relationships. The document provides examples to illustrate how selection bias may influence both cohort and case-control study designs.
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil TumainiBasil Tumaini
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil Tumaini, presented during the residency at Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Epidemiology class
This document contains 63 multiple choice questions about general epidemiology. The questions cover a range of epidemiological topics including levels of prevention (primordial, primary, secondary, tertiary), disease transmission and distribution, outbreak investigation, and risk factors. Correct answers are provided for each question.
This document discusses the health transition and epidemiological transition experienced by populations. It begins by defining key terms like demography, epidemiology, and fertility. It then discusses population growth trends globally over history. The main topics covered include the demographic transition characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates, and the epidemiological transition where infectious diseases are replaced by non-communicable diseases as the major causes of death. The engines driving these transitions are described as urbanization, changing demographics, epidemiology, socioeconomics, and advances in healthcare.
Epidemiology has several common practical applications. It is used to investigate infectious diseases through routine surveillance by health departments. Epidemiologists in hospitals explore causes of hospital-acquired infections. It also evaluates the impact of public health policies on trends like smoking rates and obesity. Overall, epidemiology provides data to understand community health issues and disease risks, identify disease syndromes, uncover disease causes, and evaluate treatments and interventions.
The document discusses epidemiology and its applications. It defines epidemiology and describes its purposes such as preventing and controlling health problems. It outlines epidemiological methods like observational and experimental studies. Descriptive epidemiology aims to study disease frequency and distribution while analytical epidemiology tests hypotheses. The roles of nurses in applying epidemiological concepts to assess community health needs and evaluate prevention programs are also highlighted.
Descriptive epidemiology involves systematically studying the occurrence and distribution of disease in populations. It describes patterns of disease by person, place, and time. Descriptive studies are the first step in epidemiological research as they observe disease occurrence and distribution without inferring causation. They provide basic data on disease frequency and characteristics in a population.
The document discusses approaches for studying disease etiology, including observational studies like ecological, cohort, and case-control studies as well as randomized trials. It also examines how evidence for a causal relationship between a factor and disease has been established through a sequence of studies, from initial clinical observations to randomized trials. Key figures in establishing causal relationships for various diseases are also mentioned, such as Alton Ochsner's work linking smoking to lung cancer and Barry Marshall and J. Robin Warren's discovery of H. pylori's role in peptic ulcers. Guidelines for determining causation, such as those from the Surgeon General and Bradford Hill, are also reviewed.
This document discusses different risk measures used in epidemiology, including relative risk, odds ratio, and attributable risk. Relative risk measures the strength of association between an exposure and disease based on prospective studies. Odds ratio is used similarly in case-control studies when relative risk cannot be directly calculated. Attributable risk determines how much disease can be attributed to a specific exposure by comparing disease rates in exposed and unexposed groups. These measures provide important information for evaluating disease causation and determining potential disease prevention through reducing exposures.
This document discusses various methods for measuring disease frequency and occurrence in populations, including rates, ratios, proportions, prevalence, and incidence. It provides examples of how to calculate rates of prevalence and incidence. Prevalence is a measure of existing cases at a point in time, while incidence describes new cases occurring over time. Both are important for epidemiological research, disease surveillance, and health planning.
This document discusses different types of epidemiological study designs. It outlines non-interventional studies like exploratory, descriptive, and analytical observational studies. It also describes interventional studies, including experimental randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental designs. For each study type, the document explains their purpose, design, analysis methods, advantages, and disadvantages. Choosing an appropriate study design depends on ethical issues, available resources, validity of results needed, and the topic being examined.
The document discusses the epidemiologic transition, which describes the transition of major causes of death from infectious diseases to chronic and degenerative diseases as populations adopt behaviors associated with economic development and improved living standards. It describes three models of transition - the classic Western model over 200 years, an accelerated model in places like Japan and Eastern Europe, and a delayed model in most low-income developing countries since WWII. The transition is accompanied by changes in mortality and morbidity patterns, as well as demographic changes as fertility declines and populations age.
An overview of a key statistical technique in epidemiology – standardization - is introduced. The process and application of both direct and indirect standardization in improving the validity of comparisons between populations are described.
Descriptive epidemiology focuses on identifying patterns and frequencies of health events in populations. It considers person, place, and time characteristics. Person characteristics describe demographic and behavioral attributes of individuals. Place characteristics describe geographic and environmental attributes. Time characteristics describe cyclical or secular trends. Together, person-place-time variables describe how health outcomes result from interactions between individuals and their environment.
The document discusses various measures used to quantify disease occurrence and mortality rates. It defines key terms like prevalence, incidence, rates, ratios and standardized rates. Prevalence is a snapshot of disease at a point in time while incidence describes new cases occurring over time. Crude rates are calculated for the entire population while specific rates are for subpopulations. Standardized rates allow comparison between populations by adjusting for differences in age or other distributions. Methods like direct and indirect standardization are used to derive adjusted rates. Mortality data from vital statistics provides important public health indicators but has issues like accuracy of documentation and changing disease classifications over time.
Epidemiology is the study of how diseases are distributed in populations and the factors that influence this. It examines why some people develop illnesses and others do not. Epidemiology helps public health officials understand health problems in communities and find ways to control and prevent diseases. The history of epidemiology shows how early physicians like Hippocrates linked environmental factors to health, and later scientists such as John Snow used epidemiological findings to control outbreaks. Modern epidemiology involves counting cases, measuring populations, analyzing health problems, applying solutions, and evaluating their effectiveness. It provides insights used in public health programs and patient care.
This document discusses case-control studies and their design and analysis. It begins by defining case-control studies as observational studies where subjects are sampled based on disease presence or absence and their prior exposure is then determined. It describes key features, need, steps in design including case and control selection. It then covers statistical analysis including odds ratios to measure risk associated with exposure and interpretations. It discusses effect modification and confounding, and analytical tools like stratification and multivariate modeling to control for confounding.
This document discusses different types of epidemiologic study designs including descriptive studies, analytical studies, and experimental studies. It provides details on descriptive epidemiology, analytic epidemiology, and different types of observational and experimental study designs such as cohort studies, case-control studies, randomized controlled trials, and ecological studies. Key aspects of cohort and case-control study designs are outlined including their advantages and disadvantages. Potential sources of error and bias in epidemiologic studies are also reviewed.
The document discusses descriptive epidemiology and provides definitions and examples. Descriptive epidemiology studies the occurrence and distribution of disease. It describes the who, where, and when of diseases. Key terms discussed include:
- Time trends which can be secular (long-term), periodic (interruptions to secular trends), or seasonal (cyclical yearly variations).
- Place patterns looking at geographic distributions of disease.
- Person characteristics of those affected such as age, sex, occupation.
Descriptive studies are the first step in understanding diseases and include case reports, case series, and cross-sectional prevalence studies.
Introduction to Epidemiology
1. Define epidemiology
2. Describe the history of epidemiology
3. Describe aims and components of
epidemiology
4. Discuss on the uses of epidemiology
Introduction to Epidemiology
History of Epidemiology.
Definition of Epidemiology and its components.
Epidemiological Basic concepts.
Aims of Epidemiology.
Ten Uses of Epidemiology.
Scope or The Areas of Application .
Types of Epidemiological Studies.
This document discusses sources of error and bias in epidemiological studies. It describes how selection bias can occur when the study population is not representative of the target population, due to factors like differential participation rates or loss to follow up. Selection bias can lead the study to produce either overestimates or underestimates of exposure-disease relationships. The document provides examples to illustrate how selection bias may influence both cohort and case-control study designs.
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil TumainiBasil Tumaini
Standardization of rates by Dr. Basil Tumaini, presented during the residency at Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, Epidemiology class
This document contains 63 multiple choice questions about general epidemiology. The questions cover a range of epidemiological topics including levels of prevention (primordial, primary, secondary, tertiary), disease transmission and distribution, outbreak investigation, and risk factors. Correct answers are provided for each question.
This document discusses the health transition and epidemiological transition experienced by populations. It begins by defining key terms like demography, epidemiology, and fertility. It then discusses population growth trends globally over history. The main topics covered include the demographic transition characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates, and the epidemiological transition where infectious diseases are replaced by non-communicable diseases as the major causes of death. The engines driving these transitions are described as urbanization, changing demographics, epidemiology, socioeconomics, and advances in healthcare.
The document discusses the epidemiological transition theory which describes how patterns of disease and mortality have changed over time. It outlines the major stages of transition from the Age of Pestilence and Famine characterized by infectious diseases, to the Age of Receding Pandemics where death rates decreased due to improved sanitation and hygiene, to the current Age of Degenerative Diseases where chronic diseases have replaced infectious diseases as the major causes of death. The stages are linked to social and economic development as well as advances in public health.
The document discusses demographic transition and its relationship to environmental changes. It begins by explaining demographic transition as the process by which birth and death rates change as a country industrializes, with birth and death rates declining. Countries then experience changes to the surrounding environment as a result of increased industrialization and population changes from demographic transition. The paper intends to focus on how demographic transition filters down to impact the environment over the long run.
The Demographic Transition Theory proposes that populations progress through four stages as countries develop economically: from high birth and death rates to low rates. While this generally occurred in Europe, the theory may not fully apply to Caribbean countries. The Caribbean experienced high birth and death rates in Stage 1, but did not see consistently falling rates as expected in later stages. The theory is too simplistic and Eurocentric to fully capture population changes influenced by factors like education levels, cultural practices, and racial dynamics in the Caribbean. While the theory provides context for historical European trends, it is limited in explaining population changes across diverse societies.
Chung Et Al Socioeconomic Development Mortalitynthobservation
The document analyzes mortality rates in Hong Kong between 1976-2005 using age-period-cohort models to examine the effects of socioeconomic development on mortality risk. It finds that:
1) Male mortality from ischemic heart disease and female mortality from other cancers increased with birth into a more economically developed environment.
2) Cardiovascular disease mortality increased with birth after the start of an infant/childhood adiposity epidemic in the 1960s, particularly for men.
3) Macroenvironmental changes associated with economic development had sex-specific effects over the life course, likely originating in early life.
This document outlines the course content and first chapter for the course Development Economics II. The course is 3 credit hours, taught by instructor Yerosan S.B., and covers topics like population growth, human capital, agriculture, trade, and foreign aid. The first chapter discusses population growth and its measurement, the relationship between population growth and economic development, and concepts like fertility rates, mortality rates, and age distribution. It also covers the demographic transition experienced by developed countries as mortality declined before fertility, leading to population growth.
Coorelation study between hdi and epidemiological transition ratio among indi...subhash chandra
The Epidemiological transition—the shift from infectious and deficiency diseases to chronic non communicable diseases—was a unidirectional process, beginning when infectious diseases were predominant and ending when non communicable diseases dominated the causes of death.
It has, however, become apparent that this transition is more complex and dynamic: the health and disease patterns of a society evolve in diverse ways as a result of demographic, socioeconomic, technological, cultural, environmental and biological changes.
It is rather a continuous transformation process, with some diseases disappearing and others appearing or re-emerging. This also indicates that such a process is not unidirectional
This document summarizes key concepts in demography and population studies. It defines terms like demography, population dynamics, population doubling time, growth rate, crude birth rate, crude death rate, and components of population growth like mortality, fertility, and migration. It also discusses population measures like total fertility rate, population pyramids, overpopulation, dependency ratio, and sex ratio. Finally, it outlines the stages of demographic transition from high birth/death rates to low birth/death rates.
Chapter 1
Introduction:
The Environment at Risk
Learning Objectives
By the end of this chapter the reader will be able to:Describe how environmental health problems influence our livesDescribe the potential impacts of population growth upon the environmentState a definition of the term environmental healthList at least five major events in the history of environmental healthIdentify current issues in the environmental health fieldDescribe employment opportunities in the environmental health field
Environmental Quality
Maintaining environmental quality is a pressing task for the 21st century.
Healthy People 2010 GoalsGoal Number 8, Environmental Health: “Promote health for all through a healthy environment.”
Healthy People 2010 Goals (continued)Goal Number 8 Objectives include:Outdoor Air QualityWater QualityToxics and WastesHealthy Homes & Healthy CommunitiesInfrastructure and SurveillanceGlobal Environmental Health
Environmental Health ThreatsTrash that fouls our beachesHazardous wastes (including radioactive wastes) leaching from disposal sites Continuing episodes of air pollution in some areasExposures to toxic chemicalsDestruction of the land through deforestation
Population and Environment: The Three P’s
Pollution Principal DeterminantsPopulation of Health WorldwidePoverty
Pollution
Combustion of fossil fuels (e.g., petroleum and coal) that disperse greenhouse gases into atmosphere may cause
Global warming
Change in distribution of insect vectors
Population
Overpopulation in developing nations is leading to the human population exceeding the carrying capacity of the planet.World population of 10-12 billion during 21st century?Related to urban crowding
Infectious disease epidemics: A consequence of crowding?Avian influenza A (H5N1) virus: outbreaks on poultry farms in Asia
-Health officials were concerned that the virus might mutate, enabling human-to-human transmission and a resulting pandemicSwine flu (H1N1 influenza): spread through North America to other parts of the globe.
-The WHO declared a pandemic.
Swine Flu (H1N1 2009 Virus)Concern that a large proportion of the population might be susceptible to infection with the virusSeasonal influenza vaccine H1N1 strain might not provide protection. During the summer and fall months of 2009, influenza activity peaked.Week ending October 24, 2009—49 of 50 states reported geographically widespread disease.Worldwide (as of 31 January 2010) more than 209 countries and overseas territories or communities reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 15174 deaths.
PovertyLinked to population growthOne of the well-recognized determinants of adverse health outcomes
Significance of the Environment for Human HealthExposure to potentially hazardous agents accounts for many of the forms of environmentally associated morbidity and mortality.Examples of hazardous agents are:MicrobesToxic chemicals and m ...
C6 POPULATION GROWTH (econdev)_20240306_214313_0000.pdfSARAHJOYLVELANTE
This document discusses population growth and its relationship to economic development. It begins by introducing the topic and noting that the world's population reached 7.2 billion in 2013 and is projected to grow significantly by 2050. It then covers several key aspects of population growth, including its history from ancient times through the present, trends in fertility and mortality rates, age structure and dependency burdens, and the concept of demographic transition as countries develop economically.
The document discusses the challenges facing India's healthcare system, including a growing population, twin epidemics of infectious and chronic diseases, and economic and educational inequities resulting in poor access to care. It notes India faces a high disease burden due to issues like lack of sanitation, malnutrition, and limited access to preventive and medical services. The system is overburdened and interventions are needed to strengthen infrastructure, prioritize education/sanitation, improve vaccination coverage, and promote cost-effective prevention strategies.
This document reviews the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions and assesses their relevance for describing population health patterns in Africa over the past 60 years. It finds that while these frameworks provided useful descriptions of trends in Western Europe and North America, they are incomplete or irrelevant for characterizing Africa's experiences. Africa remains the furthest behind in health improvements and longevity. The review identifies discontinuities and interruptions in African mortality, morbidity, and disease trends due to fragility, instability, and individual/population vulnerabilities on the continent. It concludes that the social, economic, political and cultural contexts in Africa relate to health in ways not fully captured by prevailing transition frameworks. A new perspective is needed to understand population health changes
This document reviews the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions and assesses their relevance for describing population health patterns in Africa over the past 60 years. It finds that while these frameworks provided useful descriptions of trends in Western Europe and North America, they are incomplete or irrelevant for charting population health experiences in Africa. Africa remains the furthest behind in health improvements and longevity. The frameworks do not adequately capture the impact of events like HIV/AIDS, wars, and fragility in African countries that have disrupted mortality trends. New perspectives are needed to understand population health changes in the diverse African context.
The document provides an overview of population growth trends globally and in India. It discusses key topics like the demographic transition model, past and projected world population growth, and current population growth rates in different countries and regions. The demographic transition model outlines the typical stages that societies progress through as mortality and birth rates change due to factors like industrialization, urbanization, and increased access to family planning. World population grew slowly until the 18th century but has increased rapidly in recent centuries, reaching 6.8 billion in 2010, with most growth occurring in developing countries still in the early stages of the demographic transition.
Rapid population growth is caused by declining death rates due to advances in food production, public health, and medicine during the Industrial Revolution. While food production increased globally between 1950-1984, it was unevenly distributed, causing malnutrition in some areas. Improving access to clean water, healthcare, and housing has increased life expectancy but challenges remain providing these basics for all as populations grow. Conquering disease through nutrition, vaccination, and new medicines has reduced death rates significantly, especially in more developed countries, contributing to population explosions where birth rates remain high.
Current status of health and burden of diseaseManiDhingra1
The document provides an overview of the current health status and disease burden in India. It discusses that communicable diseases account for around half of India's disease burden, with HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, and dengue posing significant problems. Non-communicable diseases like cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and cancer also contribute to 63% of all deaths in India. The document further summarizes methods for measuring disease burden, like disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and examines the impacts of disease burden on personal, social, and national levels.
The document discusses how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted demography. It notes that demography studies population size, birth/death rates, and composition. The pandemic has affected these areas through disproportionate infection and mortality rates along gender, age, and racial lines. Older individuals and those with preexisting conditions have higher mortality. The pandemic may also impact fertility slightly but transmission from mother to baby appears low.
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UNIT-III LEARNING CYCLES, MODEL AND LEARNING STYLE.pptxBurhan Khan
The document discusses learning styles and cycles. It defines learning as the transformation of experience into knowledge through grasping and transforming experience. Kolb's learning style model is explained, including the four stages of the learning cycle: concrete experience, reflective observation, abstract conceptualization, and active experimentation. The document also discusses Taylor's model of the learning cycle and its four stages: disorientation, exploration, reorientation, and equilibrium. Finally, the document outlines seven different learning styles - visual, verbal, aural, physical, logical, social, and solitary - and provides attributes of each style.
This document defines learning and discusses the process, characteristics, stages and factors that affect learning. It outlines three orientations to learning - pedagogy which focuses on transferring knowledge from teacher to learner, andragogy which emphasizes self-directed learning among adults, and geragogy which refers to teaching and learning in older adults. The document also discusses physical, emotional, cognitive and emotional health and different learning methods like dialectical and didactic. It provides an overview of the four stages of learning - unconscious incompetence, conscious incompetence, conscious competence and unconscious competence.
This document discusses reflection and critical thinking. It defines reflection as looking back on past experiences to learn lessons. The purposes of reflection are to gain new insights, ideas, understanding, and enhance care. The process of reflection involves standing back, gaining perspective, making sense of experiences, and constructing knowledge. Reflective writing involves doing's and don'ts.
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2. Objectives
At the completion of this unit learners will be to;
Define epidemiological transition.
Compare developed vs developing nation
Describe different stages of epidemiological transition.
Define Population changes and population pyramid
Explain difffent types of population pyramid.
Illustrate Factors affecting population change (dependency ratio,
sex ratio)
Discuss Changes in life expectancy and changes in age / sex
distribution
Discuss Changes in major causes of death Changes in age / sex
distribution
2
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3. Introduction
The epidemiologic transition describes changing patterns of
population age distributions, mortality, fertility, life expectancy,
and causes of death.
(McKeown, 2009, p. 19)
The "epidemiologic transition theory" was first formulated in a
paper published in 1971.
(Omran, 2005, p.329)
This theory provides description and explanation of the mortality
component of the "demographic transition"
death rates
birth rates
3
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4. Epidemiologic Transition
A characteristic shift in the disease pattern of a population as
mortality falls during the demographic transition: acute, infectious
diseases are reduced, while chronic, degenerative diseases increase
in prominence, causing a gradual shift in the age pattern of
mortality from younger to older ages
(Omran 1970)
4
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6. Epidemiologic Transition Theory
Formulated by epidemiologist Abdel Omran in 1971.
It comprises three stages characterized by fertility levels
and causes of death
1. The age of pestilence and famine
2. The age of receding pandemics
3. The age of chronic diseases
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 6
7. First Epidemiological Transition
The First Epidemiological
Transition occurred 100
centuries ago when man
moved towards the
agricultural society.
By eschewing the nomadic
lifestyle, people stayed in
one place and increased
their contact with human
(and animal) waste, and
contaminated their water
supplies. BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 7
8. First Epidemiological Transition…
And even the cultivation of
soil, and the clearing of land,
exposed people to insect
bites, bacteria, and parasites.
As cities grew, and
exploration of the surrounding
world increased, man spread
deadly diseases in ever-
greater numbers.
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9. First Epidemiological Transition…..
This epidemiological transition was
described as
“the age pestilence and famine" .
Epidemic, famines and wars
caused huge numbers of deaths.
Infectious diseases were dominant,
causing high mortality rates,
especially among children.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 9
10. First Epidemiological Transition….
High levels of mortality and fertility.
Crude Death Rate (CDR) is high and ranges from 30 to
over 50 deaths per 1,000 population.
Infant mortality rate 200-300 deaths per 1,000 live
births.
Life expectancy between 20-40 years.
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11. Second Epidemiological Transition
The Second Epidemiological
Transition began roughly 200
years ago, with the Industrial
revolution.
While many of the existing
diseases brought forth during
the first transition certainly did
not go away, new-chronic, non-
infectious, degenerative
diseases – were added
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 11
12. Second Epidemiological Transition
Increased economic growth led to a
sharp fall in deaths from infectious
diseases, and from malnutrition.
This Improvement occurred before
effective medical treatment and was
due to impact of following
interventions:
clean water
sanitary sewage
mosquito suppression (malaria/yellow
fever)
increased food safety – refrigeration and
pasteurization
increased pre & post-natal care
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 12
13. Second Epidemiological Transition
This phase was described as
“age of receding pandemics” by Omran.
It involved a reduction in the prevalence of infectious
diseases, and a fall in mortality rates.
CDR reaches a level of less than 30 deaths per 1,000
population.
IMR was 150 per 1,000 live births.
As a consequence, life expectancy at birth climbed
rapidly from about 35 to 50 years.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 13
14. Second Epidemiological Transition
Finally, the introduction of modern healthcare and health
technologies, e.g.
immunization programmes
introduction of antibiotics
enabled the control and elimination of group of infectious diseases
such as Diphtheria, polio and smallpox.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 14
15. Third Epidemiological Transition
Began in the late 20th century.
This phase was described as
‘The age of chronic diseases’
by Omran.
In the third stage the elimination of
infectious diseases makes way for
chronic diseases among the elderly.
The major causes of death are so-
called chronic degenerative and man-
made diseases such as cardiovascular
diseases, cancer, and diabetes.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 15
17. Third Epidemiological Transition
While improved healthcare means
that these are less lethal than
infectious diseases, they
nonetheless cause relatively high
levels of morbidity.
Increasingly, health patterns depend
on social and cultural behaviour,
such as patterns of food
consumption and drinking
behaviour.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 17
18. Third Epidemiological Transition
Due to low levels of mortality and fertility, there is little
population growth.
CDR stabilises at a level of less than 20 deaths per
1,000 population.
By the end of the third stage, infant mortality reaches a
level of less than 25 deaths per 1,000 live births.
When the health transition is at an advanced stage, life
expectancy may exceed 80 years.
However, the prevalence of one or more diseases means
that such a long life also includes, on average, a
relatively long period of morbidity.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 18
19. Population Pyramids
A Population Pyramid also called an age pyramid or age
picture is a graphical illustration that shows the
distribution of various age groups in a population.
Most often, a population pyramid consists of two back-
to-back bar graphs
Population is plotted on the X-axis and age on the Y-axis
One bar graph shows the males, while the other graph
shows females in a particular population
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 19
20. Conti…
The ages are made up of five-year age groups (also called
cohorts).
Males are shown on the left and females on the right.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 20
21. Parts of a pop pyramid
Title
Y axis- Age
of people
Oldest people
on top
Youngest people
on bottom
X axis- # of people of a certain age
* Men are usually on the left side, women on the right.
* *
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 21
24. Population pyramid gives a clear picture of how a country
transitions from high fertility to low fertility rate.
The population pyramid here indicates stage 3 on
the demographic transition.
The broad base of the pyramid means the majority of
population lies between ages 0–14, which tells us that the
fertility rate of the country is high and above
population Sub-replacement fertility .
There is a higher dependency ratio of younger population
over the working population.
Moreover, there is lesser older population due to
shorter life expectancy which is around 60 years
24
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25. Types of Pyramids
Pyramid shapes differ from country to country, or within a
country, region to region.
However, four general pyramid shapes, as determined by
fertility rates and mortality rates, have been noted.
1) Expansive
2) Stable growth
3) Stationary
4) Declining
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 25
26. 1-Expansive (Outgoing)
A broad base, indicating a
high proportion of
children, a rapid rate of
population growth and a
low proportion of older
people.
The pyramid points
upward.
Fertility is high so the
many children are born
replacing the parents.
26
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi
27. 2. Stable growth
Slow Growth/Stable :
A structure with bars
that even out and reflect
stable or slow growth
over a period.
A even proportion of
elderly and children that
reduces in number as the
people become older.
It has a general shape of
a pentagon.
27
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28. 3. Stationary
Stationary
A narrow base and
roughly equal numbers
in each age group,
narrowing off at the
older ages.
The base and the
centre of the pyramid
make a box shape.
In this case, fertility
equals mortality.
28
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29. 4. Declining
This pyramid has a small
base suggesting a low
proportion of children to
many older people.
The pyramid points
downward.
Fertility is so low that the
number of children born
does NOT replace the
parents.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 29
30. Population changes and Human Determinants of Transitions
Technological change
Alterations in the environment
Alterations in food type, availability,
production, preparation, and consumption
Alterations in patterns of energy
expenditure
Interplay of environmental factors and the
genetic pool of a community
30
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31. Factors effecting population changes
There are four factors that affect population change in a
country.
1) BIRTH RATE:
the number of live births per 1000 in a year
Birth rates are affected by such factors as nutrition, fertility,
attitudes about abortion, labor value of children, government
policies, social value, the availability of contraception and
culture.
31
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi
32. 2) DEATH RATE
The number of deaths per 1000 in a year
Death rates are affected by disease, war, medical
technology, improved health care, transportation
development and nutrition.
3) IMMIGRATION
The number of people moving into a country.
Pull factors-characteristics of a place that attracts people to
it.
32
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33. 4) EMIGRATION
The number of people leaving a country
Push Factors-characteristics of a place that causes people
to leave.
Refugees- people who are forced to leave their country
due to war, life-threatening discrimination, food shortage,
or natural disasters
33
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34. Sex ratio
Sex ratio is the demographic concept that measures the
proportion of males to females in a given population.
It is usually measured as the number of males per 100
females.
The ratio is expressed as in the form of 105:100, where in this
example there would be 105 males for every 100 females in a
population.
34
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi
35. Cont….
The average natural sex ratio for humans from birth is
approximately 105:100.
Scientists are not sure why there are 105 males born for
every 100 females around the world.
Today, sex-selective abortions are unfortunately common in
countries like India and China.
The introduction of ultrasound machines throughout China
in the 1990s led to a sex ratio of up to 120:100 at birth due
to familial and cultural pressure to have one's only child as
a male.
35
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi
36. Cont….
In later life, the life expectancy of men tends to be
shorter than women and thus men die earlier in life.
Thus, many countries have a very high proportion of
women to men in the over age 65 range...
Russia – 45:100
Seychelles – 46:100
Belarus – 48:100
Latvia – 49:100
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 36
37. 'Dependency Ratio
A measure showing the number of dependents (aged
0-14 and over the age of 65) to the total population
(aged 15-64). Also referred to as the "total
dependency ratio".
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 37
38. 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8 10
80 and over
79-75
74-70
69-65
64-60
59-55
54-50
49-45
44-40
39-35
34-30
29-25
24-20
19-15
14-10
9-5
4-0
Percentof Total Population
Age
Group
Age-Sex Pyramid of Afghanistan,
2010
Male Female
8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 8
80 and over
79-75
74-70
69-65
64-60
59-55
54-50
49-45
44-40
39-35
34-30
29-25
24-20
19-15
14-10
9-5
4-0
Percentof Total Population
Age
Group
Age-Sex Pyramid of Pakistan,
2010
Male Female
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 38
39. BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 39
Gordis: Epidemiology, 4th ed. 2008
Palmore,J.A,& Gardner,R.W. (1983) Measuring Mortality,
Fertility, and Natural Increase: A self teaching guide to
elementary measures. Honolulu.
Newell C. Methods and model in demography. Arnoled:
oxford press.
Hinde A. Demographic methods. John Willey & sons:
New York.
40. REFERENCES'
Gordis: Epidemiology, 4th ed. 2008
Palmore,J.A,& Gardner,R.W. (1983) Measuring
Mortality, Fertility, and Natural Increase: A self
teaching guide to elementary measures. Honolulu.
Newell C. Methods and model in demography.
Arnoled: oxford press.
Hinde A. Demographic methods. John Willey & sons:
New York.
BURHAN UDDIN, Karachi 40