Geography

1. AP Human Geography
Key Issue 2-3
Why Is Population Increasing at
Different Rates in Different
Countries?

2. Variations in Population Growth
• The Demographic Transition
– 1. Low growth – 3. Moderate growth
– 2. High growth – 4. Low growth
• Population pyramids
– Age distribution
– Sex ratio
• Countries in different stages of demographic
transition
• Demographic transition and world population
growth

3. What is the Demographic Transition?
• The shift from highhigh to low mortality and
fertility through four distinct stages.
• Based on the experience of Western Europe’s
Industrial Age.
• Began by Warren Thompson in 1929.
• Further developed in 1945 by Frank Notestein
• A sign of socio-economic progress?

4. The Demographic Transition

5. In Depth New Model

6. Stage 1 - High Fluctuating
 Birth Rate and Death rate are both high. Population growth is slow and
fluctuating.
 Reasons
 Birth Rate is high as a result of:
 Lack of family planning
 High Infant Mortality Rate: putting babies in the 'bank'
 Need for workers in agriculture
 Religious beliefs
 Children as economic assets
 Death Rate is high because of:
 High levels of disease
 Famine
 Lack of clean water and sanitation
 Lack of health care
 War
 Competition for food from predators such as rats
 Lack of education
 Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically Developed
Countries (LEDC's) today.

7. In Depth New Model

8. Stage 2 - Early Expanding
Birth Rate remains high. Death Rate is falling.
Population begins to rise steadily.
Reasons
 Death Rate is falling as a result of:
 Improved health care (e.g. Smallpox Vaccine)
 Improved Hygiene (Water for drinking boiled)
 Improved sanitation
 Improved food production and storage
 Improved transport for food
 Decreased Infant Mortality Rates
Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria

9. In Depth New Model

10. Stage 3 - Late Expanding
Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to
fall. Population rising.
Reasons:
 Family planning available
 Lower Infant Mortality Rate
 Increased mechanization reduces need for workers
 Increased standard of living
 Changing status of women
 Typical of Britain in late 19th and early 20th century;
China; Brazil.

11. In Depth New Model

12. Stage 4 - Low Fluctuating
• Birth Rate and Death Rate both low. Population
steady.
– Economy is settled
– Fully developed Middle Class
– Political stability
• Typical of USA; Sweden; Japan; Britain

13. In Depth New Model

14. Stage 5? – Declining Population
• Theoretical
• Death Rate exceeds Birth Rate.
• Negative NIR
• Mostly Eastern European Countries
– Russia
– Belarus
– Germany
– Italy
– Japan
• Many developed countries are predicted to experience
population decline.
– Factor of more elderly than young population in these countries
– Fewer young women who will be entering their childbearing years
– Elderly Support Ratio - The number of working-age people (ages
15–64) divided by the number of persons 65 or older

15. © 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
ELDERLY SUPPORT RATIO

18. Is the Demographic Transition Model Still
Useful?
• How well does the classic model work?
• Is it a useful framework for developing
countries?
• Do developing countries need to share the
experiences of Europe and the United States?
• Is the socioeconomic change experienced by
industrialized countries a prerequisite or a
consequence of demographic transition?

19. Is the model universally applicable?
• Like all models, the demographic transition model
has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to
predict, several factors and events:
– 1 Birth rates in several MDCs have fallen below death
rates (Germany, Sweden). This has caused, for the first
time, a population decline which suggests that perhaps
the model should have a fifth stage added to it.
– 2 The model assumes that in time all countries pass
through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely,
however, that many LDCs, especially in Africa, will ever
become industrialized.

20. – 3 The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in
Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialization. In
many countries, the fall in the birth rate in Stage 3 has
been less rapid than the model suggests due to religious
and/or political opposition to birth control (Brazil),
whereas the fall was much more rapid, and came earlier,
in China following the government-introduced ‘one
child’ policy. The timescale of the model, especially in
several South-east Asian countries such as Hong Kong
and Malaysia, is being squashed as they develop at a
much faster rate than did the early industrialized
countries.
– 4 Countries that grew as a consequence of emigration
from Europe (USA, Canada, Australia) did not pass
through the early stages of the model.

21. Population Pyramid

22. Population Pyramids = graphic device
that represents a population’s age and
sex composition.
Pyramid describes diagram’s shape
for many countries in 1800’s when
was created.

23. • The most important demographic characteristic of a
population is its age-sex structure. Age-sex
pyramids (also known as population pyramids)
graphically display this information to improve
understanding and ease comparison.
• Age-sex pyramids display the percentage or actual
amount of a population broken down by gender and
age. The five-year age increments on the y-axis
allow the pyramid to vividly reflect long term trends
in the birth and death rates but also reflect shorter
term baby-booms, wars, and epidemics.
Population Pyramid Overview

24. Population Pyramids
• The shape of a pyramid is primarily determined by the
crude death rate in the community.
• Dependency ratio-the number of people who are too
young or too old to work, compared to the number of
people in their productive years.
• People who are 0-14 and 65-plus normally are classified
as dependents.
• The “graying” of a population refers to the aging of a
community.
• Population pyramids also foretell future problems from
present population policies or practices. Ex. China’s
population policies skewed in favor of males.

25. • Number of people who are too young or too old
to work, compared to the number of people in
their productive years
• Indicates financial burden on a society’s
productive population
• Dependency Ratio = measure of # of dependents –
old and young that each 100 people in productive
years (15 – 64)
© 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
Dependency ratio

26. Sex Ratio
• The number of males per hundred females in
the population is the sex ratio. In Europe and
North America the ratio of men to women is
about 95:100
• In poorer countries the high mortality rate
during childbirth partly explains the lower
percentage of women.

27. There are three key types
of population pyramids:
Rapid Growth:
This pyramid of
the Philippines
shows a triangle-
shaped pyramid
and reflects a
high growth rate
of about 2.1
percent annually.

28. There are three key types
of population pyramids:
Slow Growth:
In the United States,
the population is
growing at a rate of
about 1.7 percent
annually. This growth
rate is reflected in the
more square-like
structure of the
pyramid. Note the
lump in the pyramid
between the ages of
about 35 to 50.

29. In wealthy countries with very slow rate of
population growth – population is nearly equally
divided - so pyramids have
• Almost vertical sides.
• War can be reflected by showing depleted age
cohorts and male – female disparities.
• The % of a country’s population in each age group
strongly influences demand for goods and services
within that national economy.
• Country with high % of young has high demand for
educational facilities and health delivery services.

30. There are three key
types of population
pyramids:
Negative Growth:
Germany is
experiencing a period of
negative growth (-
0.1%). As negative
growth in a country
continues, the
population is reduced.
A population can shrink
due to a low birth rate
and a stable death rate.
Increased emigration
may also be a
contributor to a
declining population.

31. Population Pyramids in U.S. cities

32. Countries In Different Stages of
Demographic Transition

33. Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about
1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history
reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

34. Moderate Growth in Chile
Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

35. Low Growth in Denmark
Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition
since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its
population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and
few children.

36. 2.5 The Demographic Transition
© 2013 Pearson Education, Inc.
POPULATION PYRAMID AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION
FOR CAPE VERDE (LEFT), CHILE (CENTER), DENMARK (RIGHT)

37. Census taking in China

38. Demographic Transition and World
Population Growth
• How many countries are in each of the
following stages of the demographic
transition?
– Stage 1- None
– Stage 2 and 3- majority of countries (i.e. Egypt,
Kenya, India)
– Stage 4- USA, Japan, France, UK
– Stage 5 – Germany?

39. Two “big breaks” & their causes
• The first break-the sudden drop in the death
rate that comes from technological
innovation
• The second break-sudden drop in the birth
rate that comes from changing social
customs