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Epidemiological Methods
1
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Learning Objectives
At the completion of this unit learners will be able to:
1. Discuss the Descriptive in term of Time, place and
Person.
2. Discuss the Analytical and basic Concepts of Cross
Sectional
3. Describe the Intervention / Experimental study
2
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Epidemiology
 Epidemiology is the study of the distribution
and determinants of health-related states or
events (including disease),
and
 the application of this study to the control of
diseases and other health problems.
(WHO 2017)
3
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Study Design /Method
A study design is a specific plan or protocol for
conducting the study, which allows the
investigator to translate the conceptual
hypothesis into an operational one.
4
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Epidemiology Methods
Experimental
(RCTs)
Observational
Analytical Descriptive
Case-Control Cohort
+ cross-sectional & ecologic
5
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Epidemiology Methods
• Descriptive studies
– Examine patterns of disease
• Analytical studies
– Studies of suspected causes of diseases
• Experimental studies
– Compare treatment modalities
6
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Epidemiology Methods
7
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Hierarchy of Epidemiologic Study Design
Tower & Spector, 2007 8
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Observational Studies
(no control over the circumstances)
- Descriptive: Most basic demographic studies
* Case Report
* Case Series
* Cross sectional
* Ecological/Correlation study
- Analytical: Comparative studies testing an hypothesis
* Cross-sectional
(a snapshot; no idea on cause-and-effect relationship)
* Cohort
(prospective; cause-and-effect relationship can be inferred)
* Case-control
(retrospective; cause-and-effect relationship can be inferred)
9
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Epidemiology Methods
10
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Case Report
• What?
• The profile of a single
patient is reported in
detail by one or more
clinicians
• Example
• In 1961, a published
case report of a 40
year-old women who
developed pulmonary
embolism after
beginning use oral
contraceptive
11
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Case Series
• What?
• An individual case
report that has been
expanded to include a
number of patients
with a given disease
• Example
• In Los Angeles, five
young homosexuals
men, previously
healthy, were
diagnosed with
pneumocyst cariini
pneumonia in
6-months period
12
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Ecological or Correlation
• Ecological Studies
– whole population is the unit of analysis
– relationship between exposure and outcome at the
individual level is missing (incomplete design)
– ecological fallacy
13
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Analytical Studies
(comparative studies testing an hypothesis)
• Cohort (prospective)
– Begins with an exposure (smokers and non-
smokers)
• Case-control (retrospective)
– Begins with outcome (cancer cases and healthy
controls)
14
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Population
People without
disease
Exposed
Not exposed
Disease
No disease
Disease
No disease
Cohort Studies
15
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
time
Study begins here
Study
population
free of
disease
Factor
present
Factor
absent
disease
no disease
disease
no disease
present
future
16
Advantages of Cohort Studies
 Can establish population-based incidence
 Accurate relative risk (risk ratio) estimation
 Can examine rare exposures (asbestos > lung cancer)
 Temporal relationship can be inferred (prospective design)
 Time-to-event analysis is possible
 Can be used where randomization is not possible
 Magnitude of a risk factor’s effect can be quantified
 Selection and information biases are decreased
 Multiple outcomes can be studied
smoking > lung cancer, COPD, larynx cancer)
17
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Disadvantages of Cohort Studies
 Lengthy and expensive
 May require very large samples
 Not suitable for rare diseases
 Not suitable for diseases with long-latency
 Unexpected environmental changes may influence the
association
 Non-response, migration and loss-to-follow-up biases
 Sampling, ascertainment and observer biases are still possible
18
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
time
Exposure Study starts
Disease
occurrence
Prospective Cohort Study
Exposure
Study starts
Disease
occurrence
time
EPIET
19
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Retrospective cohort studies
Exposure
time
Disease
occurrence Study starts
EPIET
20
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Population
Cases
Controls
Exposed
Case-Control Studies
Not exposed
Exposed
Not exposed
21
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Case-Control Studies
Schulz & Grimes, 2002
22
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Advantages of Case-Control Studies
 Cheap, easy and quick studies
 Multiple exposures can be examined
 Rare diseases and diseases with long latency can
be studied
 Suitable when randomization is unethical
(alcohol and pregnancy outcome)
23
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Disadvantages of Case-Control Studies
 Case and control selection trouble some
 Subject to bias (selection, recall, misclassification)
 Direct incidence estimation is not possible
 Temporal relationship is not clear
 Multiple outcomes cannot be studied
 If the incidence of exposure is high, it is difficult to
show the difference between cases and controls
Reverse causation is a problem in interpretation
24
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Application Exercise:
Case / Control Study
• Describe a case/control study on the
relationship between childhood obesity,
smoking history, and occurrence of
hypertension in middle-aged men.
• What research question can we answer?
25
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Cross-Sectional Studies
• Measurement of risk and outcome at the
same time.
Risk factor
Outcome 26
Cross-Sectional Design
• The only study
capable of calculating
prevalence.
– Proportion of the
population with
the outcome at any
point in time.
27
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Application Exercise:
Cross-Sectional Study
• Design a cross-sectional study that examines
the relationship between dietary sodium and
hypertension in middle-aged men.
• What research question can we answer?
28
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Advantages of Cross-Sectional Studies
• Cheap and quick studies.
• Data is frequently available through current
records or statistics.
• Ideal for generating new hypothesis.
29
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Disadvantages of Cross-Sectional Studies
The importance of the relationship between the
cause and the effect cannot be determined.
• Temporal weakness:
– Cannot determine if cause preceded the effect or
the effect was responsible for the cause.
– The rules of contributory cause cannot be fulfilled.
30
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Type of
Study
Alternative
Name
Clinical Trials
Unit of
Study
Patients
Randomised Controlled
Trials
Field Trials
Community Trials
Community
Intervention Studies
Healthy People
Communities
31
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Types of trials
Blinded Not blinded
Randomised Not randomised
Controlled Not controlled
Trial
32
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
time
Study begins here (baseline point)
Study
population
outcome
Intervention
no outcome
outcome
Control
no outcome
baseline
future
RANDOMIZATION
33
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Intervention Randomisation
Control Blinding
34
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Experimental Studies are Useful for Evaluating
• New drug or other treatment for disease
• New medical/health care technology
• Methods of prevention
• Methods of health promotion
• New health protection policies
• Programs for screening and diagnosis
• Methods of providing health care
• New health care policies
35
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Ethical Considerations in
Experimental Studies
• Is proposed treatment safe?
• For the sake of trial, can a treatment ethically be
withheld?
• What patients may be brought into trial and
allocated randomly to treatments?
• Is it ethical to use a placebo or dummy treatment?
• Is it proper for the trial to be in any way masked?
Adapted from Hill (1977)
36
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Advantages (I)
– the “gold standard” of research designs.
They thus provide the most convincing
evidence of relationship between exposure
and effect. Example:
• trials of hormone replacement therapy in
menopausal women found no protection
for heart disease, contradicting findings
of prior observational studies
37
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Advantages (II)
 Best evidence study design
 No selection bias (using blinding)
 Controlling for possible confounders
 Comparable Groups (using randomization)
38
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
Disadvantages
• Is the most expensive study design in terms of
money, time, and number of patients.
– Issues of patient attrition and compliance may
invalidate the results.
– Can be problematic for ethical reasons.
• Use of placebo
• Harm outweighing benefits
• Zero tolerance for some exposures
39
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
40
Burhan Uddin, Karachi
41
Burhan Uddin, Karachi

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Learn Epidemiology Methods in 40 Characters

  • 2. Learning Objectives At the completion of this unit learners will be able to: 1. Discuss the Descriptive in term of Time, place and Person. 2. Discuss the Analytical and basic Concepts of Cross Sectional 3. Describe the Intervention / Experimental study 2 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 3. Epidemiology  Epidemiology is the study of the distribution and determinants of health-related states or events (including disease), and  the application of this study to the control of diseases and other health problems. (WHO 2017) 3 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 4. Study Design /Method A study design is a specific plan or protocol for conducting the study, which allows the investigator to translate the conceptual hypothesis into an operational one. 4 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 5. Epidemiology Methods Experimental (RCTs) Observational Analytical Descriptive Case-Control Cohort + cross-sectional & ecologic 5 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 6. Epidemiology Methods • Descriptive studies – Examine patterns of disease • Analytical studies – Studies of suspected causes of diseases • Experimental studies – Compare treatment modalities 6 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 8. Hierarchy of Epidemiologic Study Design Tower & Spector, 2007 8 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 9. Observational Studies (no control over the circumstances) - Descriptive: Most basic demographic studies * Case Report * Case Series * Cross sectional * Ecological/Correlation study - Analytical: Comparative studies testing an hypothesis * Cross-sectional (a snapshot; no idea on cause-and-effect relationship) * Cohort (prospective; cause-and-effect relationship can be inferred) * Case-control (retrospective; cause-and-effect relationship can be inferred) 9 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 11. Case Report • What? • The profile of a single patient is reported in detail by one or more clinicians • Example • In 1961, a published case report of a 40 year-old women who developed pulmonary embolism after beginning use oral contraceptive 11 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 12. Case Series • What? • An individual case report that has been expanded to include a number of patients with a given disease • Example • In Los Angeles, five young homosexuals men, previously healthy, were diagnosed with pneumocyst cariini pneumonia in 6-months period 12 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 13. Ecological or Correlation • Ecological Studies – whole population is the unit of analysis – relationship between exposure and outcome at the individual level is missing (incomplete design) – ecological fallacy 13 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 14. Analytical Studies (comparative studies testing an hypothesis) • Cohort (prospective) – Begins with an exposure (smokers and non- smokers) • Case-control (retrospective) – Begins with outcome (cancer cases and healthy controls) 14 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 15. Population People without disease Exposed Not exposed Disease No disease Disease No disease Cohort Studies 15 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 16. time Study begins here Study population free of disease Factor present Factor absent disease no disease disease no disease present future 16
  • 17. Advantages of Cohort Studies  Can establish population-based incidence  Accurate relative risk (risk ratio) estimation  Can examine rare exposures (asbestos > lung cancer)  Temporal relationship can be inferred (prospective design)  Time-to-event analysis is possible  Can be used where randomization is not possible  Magnitude of a risk factor’s effect can be quantified  Selection and information biases are decreased  Multiple outcomes can be studied smoking > lung cancer, COPD, larynx cancer) 17 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 18. Disadvantages of Cohort Studies  Lengthy and expensive  May require very large samples  Not suitable for rare diseases  Not suitable for diseases with long-latency  Unexpected environmental changes may influence the association  Non-response, migration and loss-to-follow-up biases  Sampling, ascertainment and observer biases are still possible 18 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 19. time Exposure Study starts Disease occurrence Prospective Cohort Study Exposure Study starts Disease occurrence time EPIET 19 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 20. Retrospective cohort studies Exposure time Disease occurrence Study starts EPIET 20 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 22. Case-Control Studies Schulz & Grimes, 2002 22 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 23. Advantages of Case-Control Studies  Cheap, easy and quick studies  Multiple exposures can be examined  Rare diseases and diseases with long latency can be studied  Suitable when randomization is unethical (alcohol and pregnancy outcome) 23 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 24. Disadvantages of Case-Control Studies  Case and control selection trouble some  Subject to bias (selection, recall, misclassification)  Direct incidence estimation is not possible  Temporal relationship is not clear  Multiple outcomes cannot be studied  If the incidence of exposure is high, it is difficult to show the difference between cases and controls Reverse causation is a problem in interpretation 24 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 25. Application Exercise: Case / Control Study • Describe a case/control study on the relationship between childhood obesity, smoking history, and occurrence of hypertension in middle-aged men. • What research question can we answer? 25 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 26. Cross-Sectional Studies • Measurement of risk and outcome at the same time. Risk factor Outcome 26
  • 27. Cross-Sectional Design • The only study capable of calculating prevalence. – Proportion of the population with the outcome at any point in time. 27 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 28. Application Exercise: Cross-Sectional Study • Design a cross-sectional study that examines the relationship between dietary sodium and hypertension in middle-aged men. • What research question can we answer? 28 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 29. Advantages of Cross-Sectional Studies • Cheap and quick studies. • Data is frequently available through current records or statistics. • Ideal for generating new hypothesis. 29 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 30. Disadvantages of Cross-Sectional Studies The importance of the relationship between the cause and the effect cannot be determined. • Temporal weakness: – Cannot determine if cause preceded the effect or the effect was responsible for the cause. – The rules of contributory cause cannot be fulfilled. 30 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 31. Type of Study Alternative Name Clinical Trials Unit of Study Patients Randomised Controlled Trials Field Trials Community Trials Community Intervention Studies Healthy People Communities 31 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 32. Types of trials Blinded Not blinded Randomised Not randomised Controlled Not controlled Trial 32 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 33. time Study begins here (baseline point) Study population outcome Intervention no outcome outcome Control no outcome baseline future RANDOMIZATION 33 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 35. Experimental Studies are Useful for Evaluating • New drug or other treatment for disease • New medical/health care technology • Methods of prevention • Methods of health promotion • New health protection policies • Programs for screening and diagnosis • Methods of providing health care • New health care policies 35 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 36. Ethical Considerations in Experimental Studies • Is proposed treatment safe? • For the sake of trial, can a treatment ethically be withheld? • What patients may be brought into trial and allocated randomly to treatments? • Is it ethical to use a placebo or dummy treatment? • Is it proper for the trial to be in any way masked? Adapted from Hill (1977) 36 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 37. Advantages (I) – the “gold standard” of research designs. They thus provide the most convincing evidence of relationship between exposure and effect. Example: • trials of hormone replacement therapy in menopausal women found no protection for heart disease, contradicting findings of prior observational studies 37 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 38. Advantages (II)  Best evidence study design  No selection bias (using blinding)  Controlling for possible confounders  Comparable Groups (using randomization) 38 Burhan Uddin, Karachi
  • 39. Disadvantages • Is the most expensive study design in terms of money, time, and number of patients. – Issues of patient attrition and compliance may invalidate the results. – Can be problematic for ethical reasons. • Use of placebo • Harm outweighing benefits • Zero tolerance for some exposures 39 Burhan Uddin, Karachi