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IQPC International Armoured Vehicles Conference – Farnborough UK
                         7 February 2013




               Training and Simulation
                 for Decision Makers




                      Andy Fawkes
Overview


•   Training and Education
•   Simulation
•   Live-Simulation Balance
•   Beyond Simulation
•   Beyond Training
Training and Education
UK Military Training and Education

•   Scale - 257,160 Military/Civilian (2011)
•   Depth – eg. Fighter Pilot, Reactor Operator
•   Breadth – Apache Pilot through to Cook
•   Flexibility – Changing Operations




                Source DASA:- UK Defence Statistics 2011
How do the Armed Forces Achieve this Level of
     Training and Education Capability?

 • The Military understands that training and
   education is fundamental to their endeavour
 • People are assessed by how well they do in
   Training
 • Career progression depends on training and
   education
 • Much of military life is spent training and
   exercising
 • Lessons Learnt are fed back
Armoured Vehicle Training and Education

   •   Individual
   •   Crew
   •   Collective
   •   Joint
   •   Combined
   •   Support and Maintenance
   •   OA, Experimentation and Acquisition
Simulation
What is Simulation?

      Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or
      system over time

      Typically a military training simulation is interactive, with a “human in the
      loop”
      eg. a flight simulator or driving simulator




Source: Wikipedia; Pictures: Lockheed Martin, Royal Navy, CAE, PA
Why Use Simulation?

Improve
                            Safety
Training


Reduce                      Reduce
 Costs                   Environmental
                            Impact

           Reduce Time
             to Train
Nothing New? Predominantly Mechanical Era




               Images - Imperial War Museum
Predominantly Bespoke Electronic Era




               Images: Lockheed Martin
Networked Simulation – SIMNET – 1980s/90s
Predominantly Consumer-Driven Digital Era




             The Defence Equipment Plan 2012



               Images: MoD, Royal Navy, Army, Bohemia
Trends

1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s

                                                                        Cloud?
                                                                        Mobile?

                                                             Predominantly
                                                            Digital Consumer

                                    Predominantly Bespoke
                                          Electronic

            Predominantly
             Mechanical


1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
Access to Simulation



                                                        1000’s
Numbers




                                         100’s


          10’s

                 1990             2000           2010
Live-Simulation Balance
Live-Synthetic Balance



!!                          
            ?        *       #
      !          ?
The Mysteries of Simulation
                  CGF          VV&A     LVC      SEDRIS
 SOAP                                                     DIS
          MSHTF         TENA           Agent-based
  DTEC                                                     HLA
            RTI                 Architectures       ASP
                   Federate
  SISO                         SCORM         CBML     CORBA
             DLP         AI
  MCTS                         AR     DTED    Serious Gaming
          SEBA      CATT
   VR                          Distributed M&S        AVCATT
             Monte Carlo
                                              FOM
      NMSG              Human-in-the-loop            DoDAF
synthetic environment            DSALT              ITEC
                       BOM               Latency
                                   I/ITSEC       Emulation
          Constructive Accreditation
Cost of Training?

Weapons

  Fuel

Platforms

 People            Fuel
                Simulation
                  People
 Estate
                  Estate
  Live           Simulation
How much?
        ?
• “Cost Simulation 20% of Live Training”

            • “Save £100m‟s”
                                           $
£
     • “Cost Simulation 5% of Live Training”

  • “Training 20% of Defence Budget”       €
The Live Synthetic Balance




•   Language – What does the word “Synthetic” Convey?
•   Culture - “Live will never be replaced”
•   Assessing Training Cost Effectiveness is Difficult
•   The simulation needs to be in place first
•   Technology is Changing and so do Operations
•   How often do we change the Way we Manage?
Simulation Cost/Capability Spectrum

                                                        Expanding
£20m+



                                                          areas:



                                     Full Motion
£5m




                                     Simulators

                         Part Task
£1m




                         Trainers                  Mission Trainers
        Training Media

          Individual            Crew                Collective
Tomorrow’s Conflict
    Nature of Conflict                  Role of Simulation
• Joint/Combined                     Competency/Familiarity
• Preparation
   – Short notice                    Deployed, in theatre training
   – Distributed planning/training   Course of Action analysis
• Duration                           No planned Msn Specific
   – Shorter than HERRICK(!)         Training
• „More-from-less‟                   Max efficiency thru rehearsal
• Area of Operations                 Familiarisation (database)
   – Unfamiliar
   – (non/semi)permissive?           Force-on-Force preparation
• Political complexities             Minimising risk (rehearsals)
Beyond Simulation
And it‟s not just Simulation….. 20 Years Ago
Now - Training and Education
Knowledge in Your Hands
Digital and Online Classrooms

    South Korea 2015



                      Florida 2015



Stanford University
                          2012 - 23,000 Graduates
Recruit Expectations
Time Spent in Training and Education?

 Now


   “Classroom”       “Simulation”            “Live”



 Future?


“Classroom”      “Simulation”       “Live”
Barriers

                           Learning
Simulation
                             Tech




              Office and
             C2 Systems
Convergence?


             Learning
Simulation
               Tech


      Office and
     C2 Systems
Improved Interoperability and Collective Training   Training and Education Operating Model?
                                                                                Co-ordination                        Unification

                                                                                • Diverse Software,     • Single Infrastructure
                                                     Organisation Integration


                                                                                  Shared Data & Network   and Services



                                                                                Diversification                      Replication
                                                                                • Diverse Software, no               • Similar Software, no
                                                                                  Data Sharing &                       Data Sharing &
                                                                                  Network                              Network


                                                                                            Organisation Standardisation

                                                                                    Decreasing Procurement Costs? Less Innovation?

                                                                                            Derived from MIT Sloan School of Management
Getting it Wrong




Photograph: Alamy
Beyond Training
Military & Civilian Technology Convergence?
and there’s more… Interfaces & Augmented Reality




                  Images: Microsoft, Organic Motion
and there’s even more…
                                         Sensors




“Internet of Things”
                        Image Paul Sloan/CNET




                       Image Beam Technologies




                       Image CES
The Future of Knowledge and Skills?
        Larry Page - 2004
        "Search will be included in people's
        brains…. Eventually, you'll have the
        implant, where if you think about a
        fact, it will just tell you the answer.“




              Sergey Brin – 2012
              “You'll ride in robot
              cars within 5 years”




                 Images - Google
Train Less.. Train at All?
Diluting the Human Experience?
Retaining the Ability to Manage the Human
            Aspects of Warfare
Who/What is the Technology Benefitting?

       • The Organisation
         – eg. improved cost effectiveness
       • The Trainee
         – eg. 24/7 access to knowledge
       • The Trainer
         – eg. audio/visual aids
       • All of the Above
Questions




?                              ?

    andy.fawkes@thinke.co.uk

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Training and Simulation for Decision Makers

  • 1. IQPC International Armoured Vehicles Conference – Farnborough UK 7 February 2013 Training and Simulation for Decision Makers Andy Fawkes
  • 2. Overview • Training and Education • Simulation • Live-Simulation Balance • Beyond Simulation • Beyond Training
  • 4. UK Military Training and Education • Scale - 257,160 Military/Civilian (2011) • Depth – eg. Fighter Pilot, Reactor Operator • Breadth – Apache Pilot through to Cook • Flexibility – Changing Operations Source DASA:- UK Defence Statistics 2011
  • 5. How do the Armed Forces Achieve this Level of Training and Education Capability? • The Military understands that training and education is fundamental to their endeavour • People are assessed by how well they do in Training • Career progression depends on training and education • Much of military life is spent training and exercising • Lessons Learnt are fed back
  • 6. Armoured Vehicle Training and Education • Individual • Crew • Collective • Joint • Combined • Support and Maintenance • OA, Experimentation and Acquisition
  • 8. What is Simulation? Simulation is the imitation of the operation of a real-world process or system over time Typically a military training simulation is interactive, with a “human in the loop” eg. a flight simulator or driving simulator Source: Wikipedia; Pictures: Lockheed Martin, Royal Navy, CAE, PA
  • 9. Why Use Simulation? Improve Safety Training Reduce Reduce Costs Environmental Impact Reduce Time to Train
  • 10. Nothing New? Predominantly Mechanical Era Images - Imperial War Museum
  • 11. Predominantly Bespoke Electronic Era Images: Lockheed Martin
  • 12. Networked Simulation – SIMNET – 1980s/90s
  • 13. Predominantly Consumer-Driven Digital Era The Defence Equipment Plan 2012 Images: MoD, Royal Navy, Army, Bohemia
  • 14. Trends 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s Cloud? Mobile? Predominantly Digital Consumer Predominantly Bespoke Electronic Predominantly Mechanical 1900s 1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s
  • 15. Access to Simulation 1000’s Numbers 100’s 10’s 1990 2000 2010
  • 17. Live-Synthetic Balance !!   ? * #  ! ?
  • 18. The Mysteries of Simulation CGF VV&A LVC SEDRIS SOAP DIS MSHTF TENA Agent-based DTEC HLA RTI Architectures ASP Federate SISO SCORM CBML CORBA DLP AI MCTS AR DTED Serious Gaming SEBA CATT VR Distributed M&S AVCATT Monte Carlo FOM NMSG Human-in-the-loop DoDAF synthetic environment DSALT ITEC BOM Latency I/ITSEC Emulation Constructive Accreditation
  • 19. Cost of Training? Weapons Fuel Platforms People Fuel Simulation People Estate Estate Live Simulation
  • 20. How much? ? • “Cost Simulation 20% of Live Training” • “Save £100m‟s” $ £ • “Cost Simulation 5% of Live Training” • “Training 20% of Defence Budget” €
  • 21. The Live Synthetic Balance • Language – What does the word “Synthetic” Convey? • Culture - “Live will never be replaced” • Assessing Training Cost Effectiveness is Difficult • The simulation needs to be in place first • Technology is Changing and so do Operations • How often do we change the Way we Manage?
  • 22. Simulation Cost/Capability Spectrum Expanding £20m+ areas: Full Motion £5m Simulators Part Task £1m Trainers Mission Trainers Training Media Individual Crew Collective
  • 23. Tomorrow’s Conflict Nature of Conflict Role of Simulation • Joint/Combined Competency/Familiarity • Preparation – Short notice Deployed, in theatre training – Distributed planning/training Course of Action analysis • Duration No planned Msn Specific – Shorter than HERRICK(!) Training • „More-from-less‟ Max efficiency thru rehearsal • Area of Operations Familiarisation (database) – Unfamiliar – (non/semi)permissive? Force-on-Force preparation • Political complexities Minimising risk (rehearsals)
  • 25. And it‟s not just Simulation….. 20 Years Ago
  • 26. Now - Training and Education
  • 28. Digital and Online Classrooms South Korea 2015 Florida 2015 Stanford University 2012 - 23,000 Graduates
  • 30. Time Spent in Training and Education? Now “Classroom” “Simulation” “Live” Future? “Classroom” “Simulation” “Live”
  • 31. Barriers Learning Simulation Tech Office and C2 Systems
  • 32. Convergence? Learning Simulation Tech Office and C2 Systems
  • 33. Improved Interoperability and Collective Training Training and Education Operating Model? Co-ordination Unification • Diverse Software, • Single Infrastructure Organisation Integration Shared Data & Network and Services Diversification Replication • Diverse Software, no • Similar Software, no Data Sharing & Data Sharing & Network Network Organisation Standardisation Decreasing Procurement Costs? Less Innovation? Derived from MIT Sloan School of Management
  • 36. Military & Civilian Technology Convergence?
  • 37. and there’s more… Interfaces & Augmented Reality Images: Microsoft, Organic Motion
  • 38. and there’s even more… Sensors “Internet of Things” Image Paul Sloan/CNET Image Beam Technologies Image CES
  • 39. The Future of Knowledge and Skills? Larry Page - 2004 "Search will be included in people's brains…. Eventually, you'll have the implant, where if you think about a fact, it will just tell you the answer.“ Sergey Brin – 2012 “You'll ride in robot cars within 5 years” Images - Google
  • 41. Diluting the Human Experience? Retaining the Ability to Manage the Human Aspects of Warfare
  • 42. Who/What is the Technology Benefitting? • The Organisation – eg. improved cost effectiveness • The Trainee – eg. 24/7 access to knowledge • The Trainer – eg. audio/visual aids • All of the Above
  • 43. Questions ? ? andy.fawkes@thinke.co.uk

Editor's Notes

  1. Varies from system to system.Trend lines -