The future of wood based energy
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This document discusses the potential for expanding wood-based energy sustainably. It notes that modern biomass could more than triple by 2030, providing over 90 exajoules of energy. However, challenges include issues related to food security, land use change, and low oil prices. These can be addressed through sustainable intensification of agriculture and forestry to boost yields without expanding land use, making use of residues, and improving efficiency. There are large potential sources of biomass from closing yield gaps, better use of pastureland, and reducing food losses, totaling over 2 billion hectares that could provide around 300 exajoules. Policies to support planted forests and short-rotation tree crops on appropriate lands could boost
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The future of wood based energy
- 1. Setting the Stage for Sustainable Expansion of Wood-Based Energy TICAD VI - Special Event on the Future of Wood-Based Energy World Agroforestry Centre Nairobi, 25 August 2016 Jeff Skeer International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)
- 2. 2 Established: April 2011 Mission: Accelerate deployment of renewable energy Strategy: Hub, voice and objective information source for RE Members: 176 countries engaged; 149 ratified (23 June 2016) Mandate: Sustainable deployment of the six RE resources (Biomass, Geothermal, Hydro, Ocean, Solar, Wind) Location: Headquarters in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates Innovation and Technology Centre: Bonn, Germany Lead: Director-General, Adnan Amin International Renewable Energy Agency
- 3. Sustainable Development Goal 7 Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Sustainable Development Goal 15 Protect, restore and promote sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, sustainably manage forests, combat desertification, and halt and reverse land degradation and halt biodiversity loss https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/ sdgs Article 5.1: Parties should take action to conserve and enhance, as appropriate, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases … including forests. Preamble: need to promote universal access to sustainable energy in developing countries, in particular in Africa, through the enhanced deployment of renewable energy. http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop 21/eng/10a01.pdf UN on Renewable Energy and Forests
- 4. Renewables would mainly replace coal to become the largest source of primary energy by 2030 in the REmap scenario. 4 Renewables as Largest Primary Energy Source
- 5. Savings from reducing human health damage and CO2 emissions would be 4 to 15 times the cost of the doubling renewable share 5 Savings greatly exceed costs 40% of all options identified are cost effective even neglecting external benefits All options are cost effective if health and environmental externalities are considered
- 6. RE Doubling Needed to Limit Temperature Rise to 1.5-2.0oC 6
- 7. Benefits of a doubling 7
- 8. Updated REMAP Cost Curve with Health and Environment 8
- 9. Biomass Supply Curve (REmap 2030) 9
- 10. Expanding RE in All Sectors 10 (19 billion BOE; 2,770 Mtoe)
- 11. Modern Biomass May More than Triple 26 EJ in 2010 94 EJ in 2030 11 2030 Total 108 EJ Transport Power Industry Buildings 23 EJ 24 EJ 19 EJ 28 EJ Transport Power Industry Buildings Traditional 27 EJ 5 EJ 8 EJ 8 EJ 5 EJ
- 12. Challenges to Bioenergy • Social: Food vs Fuel • Environmental: Land Use Change • Economic: Low Price of Oil 12
- 13. Meeting the Challenges • Social: Food vs Fuel Sustainable intensification: higher yields Allows to produce more food AND fuel. • Environmental: Land Use Change Sustainable intensification: energy crops Keep forest as forest, grassland as grassland Convert degraded land to productive use • Economic: Low Price of Oil Efficient use of biomass for cooking, heat, power Competition not mainly with oil in these sectors Count value of reducing atmospheric pollutants 13
- 14. Pockets of Sustainable Bioenergy • Agriculture Residues associated with growing food production Higher yields on cropland (sustainable intensification) Efficient livestock husbandry: freeing up pastureland Reduced food losses and waste: freeing up farmland • Forestry Residues (complementary fellings on timberland) Higher yields in planted forests (better management) Afforestation of degraded forest and marginal lands • Algae 14
- 15. Residues from Expanding Food Supply • Two main types of agricultural residues Harvest residues (sustainably collect 25% - 50%) Processing residues (practically collect 90% or more) • Potential for biofuels from the residues 79 to 128 EJ of agricultural residues collectable by 2050 33 EJ of residue projected to be needed for animal feed 46 to 95 EJ remaining available for conversion to biofuel 40% efficient process for converting lignocellulose 18 to 38 EJ of advanced biofuel could be produced (22 EJ used for marine shipping and aviation in 2012) 15
- 16. Yield Gap: Illustrated by Maize 16 Ratio of Actual to Potential Yield for Maize (Year 2000) Source: Global Agro-Ecological Zones
- 17. Pastureland (3.4 billion ha) Cropland (1.5 billion ha) Agricultural Land (Billion Hectares) 0 %Dietaryprotein 20 40 60 80 100 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 %HarvestedCrops 20 40 60 80 100 1.4 billion ha prime & good 1.5 billion ha marginal & very Could possibly grow some energy crops adapted to saline or desert conditions 70 million ha more for food by 2050 (FAO)Could be more suitable for energy crops than food crops Pastureland Available Globally for Biofuel Crops
- 18. Best Practice Losses by Food Chain Stage 18 Food Type Agricultural Production Postharvest Handling & Storage Processing and Packaging Distribution: Supermarket Retail Consumption Cereals 2% 2% 3.5% 2% 1% Roots & Tubers 6% 7% 10% 3% 2% Oilseeds & Pulses 6% 0% 5% 1% 1% Fruits & Vegetables 10% 4% 2% 8% 5% Meat 2.9% 0.2% 5% 4% 2% Milk 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
- 20. Potential Land for Solid Biomass • Closing the Yield Gap:550 M ha • Better Use of Pasture Land: 950 M ha • Reduced Food Chain Losses: 270 M ha • Forest Landscape Restoration: 350 M ha • TOTAL: OVER 2 BILLION HECTARES, 300 EJ 20
- 21. Wood Focus: Planted Forest Model • Harvest Most Wood As Long-Lasting Lumber Strong land tenure allows long-run investment About two-thirds of wood extraction as lumber • Far more valuable than energy wood • Lasts up to a century, sequestering carbon • Displaces carbon-intensive concrete • Use Wood Residues for Heat and Power Highly efficient (80-90%) combined heat and power, district heating systems, home furnaces Displaces carbon-intensive fossil fuel 21
- 22. Wood Focus: Short Rotation Model • Harvest Most Wood from Fast-Growing Trees Traditional land tenure may well suffice. Compatible with agro-forestry approaches. Carbon uptake and release in balance. • Use Wood Residues for Cooking, Heat and Power Highest priority use in modern cookstoves • Reduced indoor pollution • Reduced wood collection time • Reduced pressure on local forests Efficient heat and power uses as with forest wood 22
- 23. Policies to Boost Wood-Based Energy • Accelerate improvement of crop yields by expanding extension services to spread modern farming techniques. • Reduce waste and losses in the food chain through better labeling, public information, refrigeration and infrastructure. • Improve the efficiency of land use for raising livestock. • Collect comprehensive data on land that could be used for cultivation of wood species, including likely yields. • Conduct in-depth research on practices for cultivating short-rotation tree crops on different types of land. • Institute more secure land tenure and better governance to provide incentives for more intensive land management. • Provide incentives to plant trees on degraded lands. 23
- 24. 24
Editor's Notes
- I am very happy on behalf of the International Renewable Energy Agency to offer keynote remarks on setting the stage for sustainable expansion of wood-based energy. Many thanks to Japan and ICRAF for inviting us.
- IRENA was established just five years ago but already has 149 full-fledged members. We are dedicated to accelerating the sustainable deployment of all renewable energy resources – wind, solar, ocean, hydro, geothermal and bioenergy.
- Clearly renewable energy – including wood energy from forests – is very much on the global agenda, as we can see from examining the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the climate agreement concluded in Paris. Sustainable development goals include energy access for all and sustainable management of forests. The climate agreement calls for enhanced deployment of renewable energy, especially in Africa, while also enhancing reservoirs of greenhouse gases, including forests. So we need to figure out ways to expand the use of renewable energy – including wood energy – while sustainably managing forests for the future. I’d like to start with some general context on the growing role of renewable energy in the overall energy mix, then to focus on the importance of bioenergy within the renewable energy mix, and finally to look at the role of wood in supplying bioenergy.
- We see renewables becoming the largest primary energy source – by taking market share away from fossil fuels, especially coal.
- From an economic perspective, especially counting health and environmental externalities, the benefits of doubling renewables should greatly exceed the costs. Two-fifths of the options we identified are cost-effective on a pure accounting basis. When health and environmental externalities are considered (indoor air pollution in green, carbon emissions in purple), all the renewable options identified are cost-effective – with benefits at least 4 times as great as costs, and perhaps 15 times as great
- Environmentally, renewables will play a role on a par with that of energy efficiency in limiting global temperature rise as agreed in Paris. Pledged EE efforts, shown in purple [INDCs – Intended Nationally Determined Contributions] should bring around 8 Gt of CO2-e reductions, and so should achieving a 30% RE share (shown in green). Doubling the RE share to 36% would bring a further 5 Gt of reductions (shown in blue).
- From a social perspective, there are many benefits, including nearly a tripling of renewable energy jobs (from around 9 million to 24 million), a substantial boost to incomes from higher GDP, and better health saving up to 4 million lives each year due to reduced air pollution. Think, for example, of the jobs created, the time saved, the indoor pollution avoided, if wood crops can be sustainably raised alongside food crops and used in highly efficient modern cook stoves.
- As lead agency for the Renewable energy “High Impact Opportunity” (HIO) under the UN Sustainable Development for All (SE4All) initiative, IRENA has undertaken an extensive “REmap” effort to identify cost-effective renewable energy options that could double the share of renewable energy in the overall energy mix by 2030. We’ve racked up all the options from most to least cost-saving. [This chart shows 40% of options (below the x-axis) are cost-saving and 60% (above the x-axis) cost inducing – before consideration of external costs that renewable energy is avoiding. Most of the cost-saving options become even more cost-saving, and most of the cost-inducing options become cost-saving (as shown by the string-like downward arrows), when the health effects of indoor and outdoor air pollution and the climate change effects of carbon dioxide emissions are considered. [Source: Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future: 2016 Edition, page 93.]
- Here’s a close-up showing just the biomass options. Projected costs are shown on the y-axis, cumulative supply potential on the x-axis. Current biomass prices are shown on the right for reference. Agro processing residue (in brown) and agricultural and consumer wastes (in yellow) are the cheapest options for expansion. Next come harvesting residues (in gold). Wood logging and processing residue are shown in light green, construction and furniture waste in darker green. Energy crops, in orange, could also play an important role – in a locally-chosen mix of food and fuel crops that enhances food yields, expands energy access, preserves biodiversity, and provides resiliency against droughts and flood – and in helping to restore degraded forest land. Short-rotation wood crops – from high-yielding species like acacia and gliricidia – are important energy crops to consider.
- Based on the cost comparisons, we see 116 EJ of renewable energy could be economically supplied for different final uses in 2030. Just 10% would be transport, the rest split fairly evenly between electric power and heat. Roughly half would be some form of bioenergy (shown in green).
- Let’s take a closer look at the biomass portion – here shown in terms of primary biomass supplied to different end-use sectors. Half of all current primary biomass energy use [dark blue in pie chart on the left] is traditional biomass – wood fires and cookstoves. The other half is divided evenly between heating systems for buildings [yellow], industrial process heat [gray], electrical power [orange], and transport biofuels [sky blue]. REmap suggests that overall biomass use should nearly double, and modern biomass use should more than triple – from 26 exajoules in 2010 to 94 exajoules in 2030 (moving from the pie on the left to the pie on the right) – as traditional uses are modernized. Which raises the question: where is this biomass going to come from? Our suggested answer: a large portion of it will probably come from wood.
- It’s challenging: the reputation and prospects of bioenergy have suffered from at least three major blows. First, concern over food versus fuel production has called into question the social sustainability. Second, concern over land-use change has called into question the environmental sustainability. Third, most recently, the low price of oil has called into question the economic sustainability.
- Luckily, there are ways to expand bioenergy production, without reducing food supplies, without reducing sequestration of carbon, without competing with oil. The main underlying principle is sustainable intensification of agriculture: growing more food on the same land by raising yields, thereby making land available for energy crops without directly OR INDIRECTLY requiring additional land for such crops. In terms of land use, since we know that there is a very large carbon deficit associated with the conversion of forest or peat bogs to farmland – which has happened in places like Indonesia – the key is to focus on bioenergy approaches that use land more efficiently, avoid forest loss and encourage forest expansion. Keep forest as forest, grassland as grassland, farmland as farmland – while increasing carbon sequestration and productive yields on each. And convert degraded land – not in use – to productive farm or forest. In terms of economics, we can focus not just on liquid biofuels for transport, which compete with oil, but also on use of biomass for cooking and heat and power – which accounts for 3/4 of the anticipated biomass contribution and often competes with gas and coal, The value for human health and the environment of reducing emissions of carbon and other pollutants from fossil energy should also be counted.
- There are several ways to sustainably produce more solid biomass for bioenergy through agriculture– without reducing food production or requiring extra land. These include (1) collecting more crop residues (2) raising crop yields to free up farm land for bioenergy crops, (3) raising livestock more efficiently to free up pasture for such crops, (4) reducing waste and losses in the food chain to free up further land. Short-rotation wood crops – as part of a mixed agro-forestry approach – could be grown on much of the land freed up. There is also potential for expanding sustainable wood based energy from forests - through better collection of residues from timber production, management for higher yields, and afforestation of degraded lands. Over the longer term, algae may also become a cost-effective bioenergy feedstock.
- While food and fuel production are often seen as being in conflict, they can actually grow simultaneously. As food production expands to feed growing populations, there are also more agricultural residues. A quarter to half of residues left in the field, and nearly all residues still attached to crops when they enter processing plants, can be sustainably collected. Projecting food supply and residues to 2050, subtracting residues needed for animal feed, and converting the remainder to advanced biofuel at 40% efficiency, there would be more than enough to displace the fuel that is currently used for marine shipping and aviation.
- There is also a lot of potential to raise yields on farmland, potentially freeing up a lot of land for bioenergy crops like wood and grasses while still growing food to feed the world’s growing population. The Food and Agricultural Organization, FAO, projects that global average yield for major food crops will improve from 4.2 t/ha in 2010 to 5.1 t/ha in 2050 [when 1,076 M ha of land will be needed for food]. But that is still less than half the potential yield of 10.4 t/ha. If the yield gap were closed, less than half as much land would be needed for food, leaving some 550 M ha for biofuel crops – including wood crops. As the freed up land would be widely distributed and dispersed across existing agricultural land, it would be ideal for the application of mixed agro-forestry approaches, which should reinforce yield increases and land liberation. For maize, a leading biofuel feedstock today, actual yield is close to the potential maximum in Europe (shown in dark green), but less than 70% even in the rich corn belt of the United States (mint green). By comparison, it is 25% to 55% in most of East Asia, and less than 25% in India and most of Africa. (In this context, it is very exciting to learn from ICRAF how a mixed agroforestry approach – intercropping of maize with gliricidia in Malawi - can triple maize yields.)
- Beyond the 1.5 billion hectares of land that is used today to grow food crops, shown on the right, 1.4 billion hectares of prime and good pasture land is available, shown in the middle. While there is nearly the same amount of prime and good agricultural land worldwide used for pasture as for farming, the pasture land provides just 3 percent of the food consumed by humans while the farmland provides 97 percent. With modern mixed farming techniques, it is entirely feasible to produce the same meat and milk on a quarter of the pasture land that is currently used to do so – eventually freeing up the other three quarters – 950 M ha - for high-yielding grasses and short rotation wood species as energy crops, planted in a mix to enhance biodiversity.
- Land for energy crops could also be made available by reducing waste and losses in the food chain, which account for one out of every three tons of food produced for human consumption. For each type of food and each stage of the food chain, this chart shows the lowest share of waste achieved by any region in the world. For example, Africa has the lowest waste at the stage of consumption – once food is purchased by consumers. But other regions have lower losses in other stages of the food chain, such as production, post-harvest handling and storage, processing and packaging, distribution and consumption. If food waste and losses were reduced to best practice levels in all regions, 270 M ha could be freed up for bioenergy crops globally.
- Additional energy crops might well be grown by reclaiming degraded lands. The Bonn Challenge and New York Declaration have committed countries to restore 350 M ha by 2030. The African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative (AFR100), launched at COP21 in Paris, aims to restore 100 M of these hectares. It has already been joined by 15 African countries which together have pledged to restore 55 M ha. It is a golden opportunity to try out different agro-forestry approaches, including short-rotation coppice wood that can be harvested every few years for energy. (This is the subject of more detailed panel discussion tomorrow.) AFR 100 Goal:100 M ha by 2030 (Already pledged: 55 M ha by 2030) Ethiopia (15 Mha), DRC (8 Mha), Kenya (5.1 Mha), Cote D’Ivoire (5), Central African Republic (3.5), Niger (3.2), Uganda (2.5), Burundi (2), Congo (2), Ghana (2), Guinea (2), Rwanda (2), Liberia (1), Madagascar (1), Mozambique (1)
- Adding up the potential from higher yields on farmland, better use of pastureland, reduced waste in the food chain and commitments to restore degraded forest, over two billion hectares of land could theoretically become available for growing wood or other solid biomass. Assuming an average yield of 10 t/ha and an average energy content of 15 GJ/t, this would equate to over 300 EJ of biomass. Converted to advanced biofuels at 40% efficiency, that would supply most or all the world’s liquid transport fuel needs in 2050. Otherwise, it could be converted at 80% efficiency to a mix of conventional biofuels, heat and power.
- One model for sustainably expanding wood-based energy, which has been successfully applied in Europe and North America, is based on long-term nurturing of planted forests. This model requires strong land tenure, giving foresters the incentive to plant more trees on the same land and harvest them for long-lasting, high-value uses. Most of the wood is NOT burned for energy – at least right away. Rather, trees are grown for lumber, which fetches several times the market price of energy wood. And the lumber goes to build houses where it reduces carbon emissions by displacing cement. And the houses may last a hundred years – continuing to sequester the carbon in the wood they contain. Meanwhile, new trees are planted to sequester additional carbon and only the complementary fellings (or residues) are used for energy. These residues are burned in highly efficient combined heat and power plants, district heating systems, and home furnaces, displacing carbon emissions from less-efficient systems fueled by gas and coal.
- Another model for sustainably expanding wood-based energy, which may be particularly suited to developing countries with less secure land tenure, is based on short rotation. High-yielding tree species like gliricidia and acacia are grown together with food crops in an agro-forestry approach. The wood is harvested every few years, keeping carbon uptake and release in balance. It can be used not only for modern heat and power systems as in the planted forest model, but also to accelerate the conversion of traditional wood stoves to modern cook stoves with double or triple the efficiency and far less indoor smoke. This means better health, less time required to collect wood, and less pressure from wood collection on local forests.
- A number of policies and measures could help put more wood-based energy in place. Some relate to making more land available for energy crops – by boosting crop and livestock yields and reducing food waste. Crop yields could grow faster if more resources were dedicated to expand extension services that promote modern farming techniques. Food waste and losses could be reduced by better information on food quality, public education, better transport infrastructure and renewable refrigeration and food drying. More livestock could be raised on less land through modern mixed systems for milk and meat production. Other policies and measures could focus on how to grow more wood on the land that’s available. Better data on available land could encourage farmers and foresters to invest in it, and so could a clearer understanding of agroforestry practices for planting a carbon-sequestering mix of trees and grasses with higher yields and profits. More secure land tenure and honest governance practices are essential to give local stakeholders a stake in managing their land more intensively by ensuring they can reap the fruits of their investment. Incentives to plant trees on degraded forests may well be the element of solid biomass strategy with the quickest, surest payoff. To provide the political foundation for such policies, it is vital to communicate to policy makers and the public that wood-based energy can grow ALONG WITH food production and carbon-sequestering forest cover, while boosting income and employment.
- For further details, please read our reports and supporting analyses on www.irena.org.