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Kazumasa Aonashi* and Hisaki Eito Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan   [email_address] July 27, 2011  IGARSS2011   Displaced Ensemble variational  assimilation method  to   incorporate microwave imager TBs into a cloud-resolving model
Satellite Observation (TRMM) Infrared Imager SST, Winds Cloud Particles Frozen Precip. Snow Aggregates Melting Layer Rain Drops Radiation from Rain Scattering by Frozen Particles Radar Back scattering from Precip. Scattering Radiation 0℃ Microwave Imager Cloud Top Temp. 10 μm 3 mm-3cm (100-10 GH z) 2cm 19 GH z 85 GHz
Cloud-Resolving Model used   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Explicitly forecasts 6 species of water substances
Goal: Data assimilation of MWI TBs into CRMs Hydrological Model Cloud Reslv. Model  + Data Assim System MWI TBs (PR) Precip.
OUTLINE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TMI 040609.OP37437
OUTLINE ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Why  Ensemble-based   method?:   200km 10km Heavy Rain Area Rain-free Area To estimate the flow-dependency  of the error covariance   Ensemble forecast error corr. of PT (04/6/9/22 UTC)
Why Variational Method  ?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],To address the non-linearity of TBs
Presupposition of Ensemble-based assimilation Analysis ensemble mean T=t0 T=t1 T=t2 Analysis w/ errors FCST ensemble mean Ensemble forecasts have enough spread to include (Obs. – Ens. Mean) Obs.
Displacement error betw. Observation & Ensemble forecast ,[object Object],[object Object],AMSRE  TB19v (2003/1/27/04z) Mean of Ensemble Forecast (2003/1/26/21 UTC FT=7h )
Ensemble-based assimilation for observed rain areas without forecasted rain Analysis ensemble mean T=t0 T=t1 T=t2 Analysis w/ errors FCST ensemble mean Assimilation can give erroneous analysis when the presupposition is not satisfied. Signals from rain can be misinterpreted as those from other variables Displacement error correction is needed! Obs.
Displaced Ensemble variational  assimilation method ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fig. 1: CRM Ensemble  Forecasts Displacement Error Correction Ensemble-based Variational  Assimilation MWI TBs Assimilation method
DEC scheme: min. cost function for d ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Detection of the large-scale pattern of optimum displacement ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fig. 1: CRM Ensemble  Forecasts Displacement Error Correction Ensemble-based Variational  Assimilation MWI TBs Assimilation method
EnVA: min. cost function in the Ensemble forecast error subspace  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Calculation of the optimum analysis  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Application   results ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Case  ( 2004/6/9/22 UTC) TY CONSON 1) Assimilate TMI TBs    (10v, 19v, 21v   ) 2) 100 member Ensemble (init. 04/6/9/15 UTC : FG) TMI TB19 v RAM (mm/hr)
TB19v from TMI and CRM outputs FG : First  guess DE : After  DEC ND: NoDE+ EnVA CN : DE+ EnVA TMI
RAM and Rain mix. ratio analysis (z=930m) FG DE RAM ND CN
RH(contours) and W(shades) along N-S FG DE CN ND S N S N S N M
CRM Variables vs. TBc at Point M FG FG DE DE Qr(930m)  vs.TB19v RTW (3880m) vs.TB21v
Hourly Precip. forecasts (FT=0-1 h) 22-23Z 9th RAM DE CN ND FG
Hourly Precip. Forecasts (FT=3-4 h) 01-02Z 10th  RAM DE CN ND FG
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Forecast error corr. of W (04/6/9/15z 7h fcst) Heavy rain (170,195) Weak rain (260,210) Rain-free (220,150) 200 km 200 km Severe sampling error for precip-related variables
Thank you for your attention. End
Ensemble-based Variational Assimilation Method Why  Ensemble-based   Assimilation method?:      To address the flow-dependency of the error covariance   Why Variational Assimilation Method  ? :    To address the non-linearity of TBs
Why  Ensemble-based   method?:   Ensemble forecast corr. of PT (04/6/9/22 UTC) 200km 10km 1000 km Heavy Rain Area Rain-free Area To address the flow-dependency  of the error covariance
Presupposition of Ensemble-based assimilation ,[object Object],[object Object]
Cloud-Resolving Model used   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Cloud Microphysical Scheme
Why EnVA? Emission & Scattering signals vs. hydrometers Convective rain (Jan. 27, 2003) Emission Singals At 18 GHz τ  ∝  LN(Ts-TB) Ts-TB= Ts(1- ε s)exp(-2 τ ) Scattering Singals At 89 GHz τ  ∝  LN(TB/TBflh) TB=TBflh Exp(- τ )
Fig. 1: CRM Ensemble  Forecasts Displacement Error Correction Ensemble-based Variational  Assimilation MWI TBs Assimilation method
Post-fit residuals FG : DE : ND: CN : LN: DE+ EnVA. 1st Jx=24316.6 Jb=0 Jo=24316.6 Jx= 9435.2 Jb=0 Jo= 9435.2 Jx= 4105.4 Jb=  834.5 Jo= 3270.9 Jx= 2431.9 Jb=  290.9 Jo= 2141.0 Jx=  6883.0 Jb=  14.5 Jo=  6868.4

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4_Presentation.DE+EnVA.20110727.ppt

  • 1. Kazumasa Aonashi* and Hisaki Eito Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan [email_address] July 27, 2011 IGARSS2011   Displaced Ensemble variational assimilation method to   incorporate microwave imager TBs into a cloud-resolving model
  • 2. Satellite Observation (TRMM) Infrared Imager SST, Winds Cloud Particles Frozen Precip. Snow Aggregates Melting Layer Rain Drops Radiation from Rain Scattering by Frozen Particles Radar Back scattering from Precip. Scattering Radiation 0℃ Microwave Imager Cloud Top Temp. 10 μm 3 mm-3cm (100-10 GH z) 2cm 19 GH z 85 GHz
  • 3.
  • 4. Goal: Data assimilation of MWI TBs into CRMs Hydrological Model Cloud Reslv. Model + Data Assim System MWI TBs (PR) Precip.
  • 5.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Why Ensemble-based method?: 200km 10km Heavy Rain Area Rain-free Area To estimate the flow-dependency of the error covariance Ensemble forecast error corr. of PT (04/6/9/22 UTC)
  • 10.
  • 11. Presupposition of Ensemble-based assimilation Analysis ensemble mean T=t0 T=t1 T=t2 Analysis w/ errors FCST ensemble mean Ensemble forecasts have enough spread to include (Obs. – Ens. Mean) Obs.
  • 12.
  • 13. Ensemble-based assimilation for observed rain areas without forecasted rain Analysis ensemble mean T=t0 T=t1 T=t2 Analysis w/ errors FCST ensemble mean Assimilation can give erroneous analysis when the presupposition is not satisfied. Signals from rain can be misinterpreted as those from other variables Displacement error correction is needed! Obs.
  • 14.
  • 15. Fig. 1: CRM Ensemble Forecasts Displacement Error Correction Ensemble-based Variational Assimilation MWI TBs Assimilation method
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. Fig. 1: CRM Ensemble Forecasts Displacement Error Correction Ensemble-based Variational Assimilation MWI TBs Assimilation method
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22. Case ( 2004/6/9/22 UTC) TY CONSON 1) Assimilate TMI TBs   (10v, 19v, 21v ) 2) 100 member Ensemble (init. 04/6/9/15 UTC : FG) TMI TB19 v RAM (mm/hr)
  • 23. TB19v from TMI and CRM outputs FG : First guess DE : After DEC ND: NoDE+ EnVA CN : DE+ EnVA TMI
  • 24. RAM and Rain mix. ratio analysis (z=930m) FG DE RAM ND CN
  • 25. RH(contours) and W(shades) along N-S FG DE CN ND S N S N S N M
  • 26. CRM Variables vs. TBc at Point M FG FG DE DE Qr(930m) vs.TB19v RTW (3880m) vs.TB21v
  • 27. Hourly Precip. forecasts (FT=0-1 h) 22-23Z 9th RAM DE CN ND FG
  • 28. Hourly Precip. Forecasts (FT=3-4 h) 01-02Z 10th RAM DE CN ND FG
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. Forecast error corr. of W (04/6/9/15z 7h fcst) Heavy rain (170,195) Weak rain (260,210) Rain-free (220,150) 200 km 200 km Severe sampling error for precip-related variables
  • 32. Thank you for your attention. End
  • 33. Ensemble-based Variational Assimilation Method Why Ensemble-based Assimilation method?:    To address the flow-dependency of the error covariance Why Variational Assimilation Method ? :    To address the non-linearity of TBs
  • 34. Why Ensemble-based method?: Ensemble forecast corr. of PT (04/6/9/22 UTC) 200km 10km 1000 km Heavy Rain Area Rain-free Area To address the flow-dependency of the error covariance
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37.
  • 38. Why EnVA? Emission & Scattering signals vs. hydrometers Convective rain (Jan. 27, 2003) Emission Singals At 18 GHz τ ∝ LN(Ts-TB) Ts-TB= Ts(1- ε s)exp(-2 τ ) Scattering Singals At 89 GHz τ ∝ LN(TB/TBflh) TB=TBflh Exp(- τ )
  • 39. Fig. 1: CRM Ensemble Forecasts Displacement Error Correction Ensemble-based Variational Assimilation MWI TBs Assimilation method
  • 40. Post-fit residuals FG : DE : ND: CN : LN: DE+ EnVA. 1st Jx=24316.6 Jb=0 Jo=24316.6 Jx= 9435.2 Jb=0 Jo= 9435.2 Jx= 4105.4 Jb= 834.5 Jo= 3270.9 Jx= 2431.9 Jb= 290.9 Jo= 2141.0 Jx= 6883.0 Jb= 14.5 Jo= 6868.4

Editor's Notes

  1. In this study, CRM with the horizontal grid size of 1km were used. The calculation domain has 2000 x 2000 x 38 in CRM with horizontal and vertical grids. These figure show the calculation domain and topography. It should be noticed that the simulation with this scale without the Earth Simulator is quite difficult to do. The initial and boundary conditions for the CRM are provided from output produced by RSM, which is a hydrostatic model used operationally in the Japan Meteorological Agency. CRM simulations are one-way nested within the RSM forecast.
  2. In this study, CRM with the horizontal grid size of 1km were used. The calculation domain has 2000 x 2000 x 38 in CRM with horizontal and vertical grids. These figure show the calculation domain and topography. It should be noticed that the simulation with this scale without the Earth Simulator is quite difficult to do. The initial and boundary conditions for the CRM are provided from output produced by RSM, which is a hydrostatic model used operationally in the Japan Meteorological Agency. CRM simulations are one-way nested within the RSM forecast.
  3. The bulk cloud microphysics scheme is employed in the CRM In this scheme, the water substances are categorized into 6 water species (water vapor, cloud water, rain, cloud ice, snow and graupel) This scheme explicitly predicts the mixing ratios and number concentrations of all water species.