Earned Value analysis (EVA) is the most efficient tool used for transitional review of project execution .It is helpful to project managers and management team to value the progress of project work throughout the project life cycle. The Earned Schedule (ES) is used to approximate the time or duration of project/ s for appropriate evaluation of project execution. ES also help to forecast the time required to complete the project. When combined with schedule analysis, ES can enhance the project. EVA provides the controlling tool for better decision making in project management. The paper discuss about the probability distribution of Cost performance Index (CPI) and Schedule performance Index (SPI). Best fitted distribution will help for forecasting project duration effectively. This helps the Project Manager to prevent the over budgeted cost in future. So an attempt is made to find the alternative distribution of CPI and SPI for better decision making. If the project schedule performance shows poor results then manager need to take the corrective action with the help of this tool. Weibull, Gamma and Exponentiated Exponential Distribution functions are used to study the effect of SPI on CPI. For making better decision in project scheduling, Project managers can review the parameters using EVM tool. The tool is useful in all types of civil engineering and software engineering projects.
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a technique
that forecasts the project giving an early warning of cost &
schedule. It not onely measures the project performance but also
measure the progress of the schedule. It is an effective tool to
measure cost, schedule & performance of the project. The EVA is
useful in various fields such as IT, Industries and Construction
companies etc.
The value of Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is dependent on
two key areas i.e. Precise Cost information and pragmatic
progress of project. If these two key areas are efficient then
benefit of the project will definitely get valued. This paper
summarizes the evolution, basic terminologies of Earned value
Analysis and effective use of it in the construction industries by
MS Project. There are many ways to implement EVA in the
construction project. MS Project is a tool to determine the EV
and its parameters in an efficient way with accuracy and within
time constraints.
Construction Project Schedule Template- Residential BuildingSHAZEBALIKHAN1
The excel template is a ready-to-use project schedule for a residential building construction project. The article gives the basic idea of a project schedule for residential building construction. Download the excel file through the hyperlink in the article.
Earned Value Probabilistic Forecasting Using Monte Carlo SimulationRicardo Viana Vargas
The aim of this article is to present a proposal of interconnection between models and probabilistic simulations of project as possible ways to determine EAC (Final cost) through Earned Value Analysis. The article proves that the use of the 3 main models of projection (constant index, CPI and SCI) as the basis of a triangular probabilistic distribution that, through Monte Carlo simulation will permit associate and determine the probability according to the accomplishment of budgets and costs of the project.
Production Planning and control: Forecasting techniques – causal and time series models, moving average,
exponential smoothing, trend and seasonality; aggregate production planning; master production scheduling; materials
requirement planning (MRP) and MRP‐II; routing, scheduling and priority dispatching, concept of JIT manufacturing
System.
Project Management: Project network analysis, CPM, PERT and Project crashing.
Earned Value Management (EVM) is a technique
that forecasts the project giving an early warning of cost &
schedule. It not onely measures the project performance but also
measure the progress of the schedule. It is an effective tool to
measure cost, schedule & performance of the project. The EVA is
useful in various fields such as IT, Industries and Construction
companies etc.
The value of Earned Value Analysis (EVA) is dependent on
two key areas i.e. Precise Cost information and pragmatic
progress of project. If these two key areas are efficient then
benefit of the project will definitely get valued. This paper
summarizes the evolution, basic terminologies of Earned value
Analysis and effective use of it in the construction industries by
MS Project. There are many ways to implement EVA in the
construction project. MS Project is a tool to determine the EV
and its parameters in an efficient way with accuracy and within
time constraints.
Construction Project Schedule Template- Residential BuildingSHAZEBALIKHAN1
The excel template is a ready-to-use project schedule for a residential building construction project. The article gives the basic idea of a project schedule for residential building construction. Download the excel file through the hyperlink in the article.
Earned Value Probabilistic Forecasting Using Monte Carlo SimulationRicardo Viana Vargas
The aim of this article is to present a proposal of interconnection between models and probabilistic simulations of project as possible ways to determine EAC (Final cost) through Earned Value Analysis. The article proves that the use of the 3 main models of projection (constant index, CPI and SCI) as the basis of a triangular probabilistic distribution that, through Monte Carlo simulation will permit associate and determine the probability according to the accomplishment of budgets and costs of the project.
Production Planning and control: Forecasting techniques – causal and time series models, moving average,
exponential smoothing, trend and seasonality; aggregate production planning; master production scheduling; materials
requirement planning (MRP) and MRP‐II; routing, scheduling and priority dispatching, concept of JIT manufacturing
System.
Project Management: Project network analysis, CPM, PERT and Project crashing.
Performance Evaluation of Construction Projects by EVM Method, Using Primaver...Mohammad Lemar ZALMAİ
Abstract
Most of the construction projects are exposed to time and cost overruns due to various factors and this is a major problem. As a solution to this, the Earned Value Management (EVM) method is considered. EVM is a powerful and well-known method used in monitoring and controlling the project. EVM gives an early indication that either project is delayed or not and the project is either over budget or under budget at any particular day by tracking it. Thus, it helps to improve the management control system of a construction project, to detect and control the problems in potential risk areas and to suggest the importance and purpose of monitoring the construction work. This paper explains the main parameters of the EVM system involved in the calculation of time and cost for construction projects. In this study, the Primavera P6 software is used to deals with the
project monitoring process of a seven-storey (G+6) faculty building whose construction is in progress at Istanbul, Turkey. A comparison between the planned progress of construction activities and actual progress is performed and the analysis results are interpreted. This case study justifies the benefits of using EVM for project cash flow analysis and forecasting.
Keywords: construction cost management, construction planning, earned value management (EVM), Primavera p6, project management, project scheduling.
Economics of project evaluation cpm module2ahsanrabbani
Introduction: The competencies required for developing business cases comprise a range of skills, including those for:
• facilitation and negotiation
• demand management
• risk management
• value management
• economic, social, environmental and budget analyses, and
• strategic planning.
Cost management is the process of planning and controlling the budget of a business. Cost management is a form of management accounting that allows a business to predict impending expenditures to help reduce the chance of going over budget.
A CCP is an experienced practitioner with advanced knowledge and technical expertise to apply the broad principles and best practices of Total Cost Management (TCM) in the planning, execution and management of any organizational project or program. CCPs also demonstrate the ability to research and communicate aspects of TCM principles and practices to all levels of project or program stakeholders, both internally and externally.
Introduction
CPM/PERT or Network Analysis as the technique is sometimes called, developed along two parallel streams, one industrial and the other military.
CPM (Critical Path Method) was the discovery of M.R.Walker of E.I.Du Pont de Nemours & Co. and J.E.Kelly of Remington Rand, circa 1957. The computation was designed for the UNIVAC-I computer. The first test was made in 1958, when CPM was applied to the construction of a new chemical plant. In March 1959, the method was applied to maintenance shut-down at the Du Pont works in Louisville, Kentucky. Unproductive time was reduced from 125 to 93 hours.
PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) was devised in 1958 for the POLARIS missile program by the Program Evaluation Branch of the Special Projects office of the U.S.Navy, helped by the Lockheed Missile Systems division and the Consultant firm of Booz-Allen & Hamilton. The calculations were so arranged so that they could be carried out on the IBM Naval Ordinance Research Computer (NORC) at Dahlgren, Virginia.
Earned Value Management involves more that just cost and schedule. Six Business Systems, including EVM, are the basis of credible program performance management.
Here's a suggestion of how to "connect the dots."
International Journal of Engineering Research and DevelopmentIJERD Editor
Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering,
Information Engineering and Technology,
Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering,
Automation and Mechatronics Engineering,
Material and Chemical Engineering,
Civil and Architecture Engineering,
Biotechnology and Bio Engineering,
Environmental Engineering,
Petroleum and Mining Engineering,
Marine and Agriculture engineering,
Aerospace Engineering.
Why do we need Project Controls? The financial decision to execute a project implies a given investment completed at a given time and owners need to get the most out of the amounts of capital invested. In today’s business climate, “real time” information is essential to make better decisions.
A CCP is an experienced practitioner with advanced knowledge and technical expertise to apply the broad principles and best practices of Total Cost Management (TCM) in the planning, execution and management of any organizational project or program. CCPs also demonstrate the ability to research and communicate aspects of TCM principles and practices to all levels of project or program stakeholders, both internally and externally.
Predicting Software Defects Using Bayesian Network Approachtheijes
Software defects are very predominant especially in large software these days because programmers do not take the pain to properly debug and test their software before releasing them to customers and users. When these software are put into use, the defects manifest themselves especially if they are dormant or inactive at the time the software is being developed. As a result, they do cause errors and eventually failure if not quickly handled thereby causing serious damages in terms of human and material loss. This paper proposed the Bayesian network model for predicting software defects. In the model, certain software inputs are tested to determine the number of defects in them. Therefore, our program which is developed in Java programming language is able to count the number of inputs and outputs using certain parameters and expressions. This is possible when we input query into the network. The program is able to determine that a query has been supplied, the query type, the various events that takes place at each stage of the query determination, the choices made and the probability of defects being found or not being found in the software.
Methods for Risk Management of Mining Excavator through FMEA and FMECAtheijes
Management of maintenance systems in the mining industry is an important condition for their operation. If we recognize the need for risk analysis and management of individual maintenance system, it can generate potential overall efficiency and effectiveness. Special importance for the realization of the objectives of the mining industry belongs to redesign, system harmonization between the various technical structure, standardization, technical diagnostics, analysis of different levels of criticality with variant selection and application of optimal solutions. The potential for the destruction of the complex maintenance systems are a reality in the mining industry and their expression in various applications is a realistic one. For different aspects of the analysis it is possible to decrease risk index range from the threshold to the range of high and low threshold of moderate and acceptable risk. Application of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) and FMECA (Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis) methods are used to manage risk related to the initial phase of defining the prediction of all possible risks, risk factors and RPN budget priorities. Some risks can be grouped according to the type of errors that occur due to their realization. For effective risk analysis and implement measures to reduce their need is and competent team. No matter what the risks involved, FMECA method can reliably estimate the possibility of their implementation with a satisfactory degree of flexibility and compatibility. In this paper an attempt has been made to develop an effective maintenance methodology of excavator such that the maintenance cost is minimized and technical constraints (such as engine, hydraulic and transmission system, break system, electrical and safety system, suspension and track) are efficiently monitored and maintained. These technical constraints depends upon many factors such as a) Geotechnical parameters, b) Geological parameters, c) Mine parameters, d) Production rate, e) Equipment specification and f) Dig ability assessment etc. Based on the above factors maintenance plans are prepared. This paper discusses a risk management strategy system for Optimal Maintenance Program (OMP) of excavators. The OMP includes functional analysis method of FMEA and FMECA. To develop a successful operation system, it is first necessary to create a risk management program. A prudent management program is one that ensures safety and is environmentally and economically responsible.
Performance Evaluation of Construction Projects by EVM Method, Using Primaver...Mohammad Lemar ZALMAİ
Abstract
Most of the construction projects are exposed to time and cost overruns due to various factors and this is a major problem. As a solution to this, the Earned Value Management (EVM) method is considered. EVM is a powerful and well-known method used in monitoring and controlling the project. EVM gives an early indication that either project is delayed or not and the project is either over budget or under budget at any particular day by tracking it. Thus, it helps to improve the management control system of a construction project, to detect and control the problems in potential risk areas and to suggest the importance and purpose of monitoring the construction work. This paper explains the main parameters of the EVM system involved in the calculation of time and cost for construction projects. In this study, the Primavera P6 software is used to deals with the
project monitoring process of a seven-storey (G+6) faculty building whose construction is in progress at Istanbul, Turkey. A comparison between the planned progress of construction activities and actual progress is performed and the analysis results are interpreted. This case study justifies the benefits of using EVM for project cash flow analysis and forecasting.
Keywords: construction cost management, construction planning, earned value management (EVM), Primavera p6, project management, project scheduling.
Economics of project evaluation cpm module2ahsanrabbani
Introduction: The competencies required for developing business cases comprise a range of skills, including those for:
• facilitation and negotiation
• demand management
• risk management
• value management
• economic, social, environmental and budget analyses, and
• strategic planning.
Cost management is the process of planning and controlling the budget of a business. Cost management is a form of management accounting that allows a business to predict impending expenditures to help reduce the chance of going over budget.
A CCP is an experienced practitioner with advanced knowledge and technical expertise to apply the broad principles and best practices of Total Cost Management (TCM) in the planning, execution and management of any organizational project or program. CCPs also demonstrate the ability to research and communicate aspects of TCM principles and practices to all levels of project or program stakeholders, both internally and externally.
Introduction
CPM/PERT or Network Analysis as the technique is sometimes called, developed along two parallel streams, one industrial and the other military.
CPM (Critical Path Method) was the discovery of M.R.Walker of E.I.Du Pont de Nemours & Co. and J.E.Kelly of Remington Rand, circa 1957. The computation was designed for the UNIVAC-I computer. The first test was made in 1958, when CPM was applied to the construction of a new chemical plant. In March 1959, the method was applied to maintenance shut-down at the Du Pont works in Louisville, Kentucky. Unproductive time was reduced from 125 to 93 hours.
PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) was devised in 1958 for the POLARIS missile program by the Program Evaluation Branch of the Special Projects office of the U.S.Navy, helped by the Lockheed Missile Systems division and the Consultant firm of Booz-Allen & Hamilton. The calculations were so arranged so that they could be carried out on the IBM Naval Ordinance Research Computer (NORC) at Dahlgren, Virginia.
Earned Value Management involves more that just cost and schedule. Six Business Systems, including EVM, are the basis of credible program performance management.
Here's a suggestion of how to "connect the dots."
International Journal of Engineering Research and DevelopmentIJERD Editor
Electrical, Electronics and Computer Engineering,
Information Engineering and Technology,
Mechanical, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering,
Automation and Mechatronics Engineering,
Material and Chemical Engineering,
Civil and Architecture Engineering,
Biotechnology and Bio Engineering,
Environmental Engineering,
Petroleum and Mining Engineering,
Marine and Agriculture engineering,
Aerospace Engineering.
Why do we need Project Controls? The financial decision to execute a project implies a given investment completed at a given time and owners need to get the most out of the amounts of capital invested. In today’s business climate, “real time” information is essential to make better decisions.
A CCP is an experienced practitioner with advanced knowledge and technical expertise to apply the broad principles and best practices of Total Cost Management (TCM) in the planning, execution and management of any organizational project or program. CCPs also demonstrate the ability to research and communicate aspects of TCM principles and practices to all levels of project or program stakeholders, both internally and externally.
Predicting Software Defects Using Bayesian Network Approachtheijes
Software defects are very predominant especially in large software these days because programmers do not take the pain to properly debug and test their software before releasing them to customers and users. When these software are put into use, the defects manifest themselves especially if they are dormant or inactive at the time the software is being developed. As a result, they do cause errors and eventually failure if not quickly handled thereby causing serious damages in terms of human and material loss. This paper proposed the Bayesian network model for predicting software defects. In the model, certain software inputs are tested to determine the number of defects in them. Therefore, our program which is developed in Java programming language is able to count the number of inputs and outputs using certain parameters and expressions. This is possible when we input query into the network. The program is able to determine that a query has been supplied, the query type, the various events that takes place at each stage of the query determination, the choices made and the probability of defects being found or not being found in the software.
Methods for Risk Management of Mining Excavator through FMEA and FMECAtheijes
Management of maintenance systems in the mining industry is an important condition for their operation. If we recognize the need for risk analysis and management of individual maintenance system, it can generate potential overall efficiency and effectiveness. Special importance for the realization of the objectives of the mining industry belongs to redesign, system harmonization between the various technical structure, standardization, technical diagnostics, analysis of different levels of criticality with variant selection and application of optimal solutions. The potential for the destruction of the complex maintenance systems are a reality in the mining industry and their expression in various applications is a realistic one. For different aspects of the analysis it is possible to decrease risk index range from the threshold to the range of high and low threshold of moderate and acceptable risk. Application of FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis) and FMECA (Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis) methods are used to manage risk related to the initial phase of defining the prediction of all possible risks, risk factors and RPN budget priorities. Some risks can be grouped according to the type of errors that occur due to their realization. For effective risk analysis and implement measures to reduce their need is and competent team. No matter what the risks involved, FMECA method can reliably estimate the possibility of their implementation with a satisfactory degree of flexibility and compatibility. In this paper an attempt has been made to develop an effective maintenance methodology of excavator such that the maintenance cost is minimized and technical constraints (such as engine, hydraulic and transmission system, break system, electrical and safety system, suspension and track) are efficiently monitored and maintained. These technical constraints depends upon many factors such as a) Geotechnical parameters, b) Geological parameters, c) Mine parameters, d) Production rate, e) Equipment specification and f) Dig ability assessment etc. Based on the above factors maintenance plans are prepared. This paper discusses a risk management strategy system for Optimal Maintenance Program (OMP) of excavators. The OMP includes functional analysis method of FMEA and FMECA. To develop a successful operation system, it is first necessary to create a risk management program. A prudent management program is one that ensures safety and is environmentally and economically responsible.
Safety aspect in automotive engineering is of prime importance. Effective Braking system along with good suspension systems, good handling and safe cornering is very important for determining the performance of the vehicle. The objective of this work is to design, analyze and investigate the strength and stiffness of the brake calliper during braking operation using ANSYS Workbench 15.0This analysis is further used to identify the critical locations of low stiffness on the brake calliper and also aimed at evaluating the performance of brake calliper under severe braking conditions. Hence best suitable design is suggested based on the performance and strength criteria
Performance Analysis of Apodized Fiber Bragg Gratings Formats in Optical Comm...theijes
This paper presents the performance analysis of apodized fiber bragg an optical communication system. The effected fiber bragg for capacities uniform, Gaussian and tanh capacity has been implemented and investigated. The variable file of FBG performance is talented for the distinctive apodized capacity, including utilization in the RZ beat generator. The corresponding framework throughout the fiber mode channel is simulated using optisystem version 9 programs. Results show a fit correlation for the range, eye diagram and Q-variable figure
Testing and Evaluation of Particle Motion in a Multi-Pass VibroFluidized Bed ...theijes
Multi-pass vibro-fluidized bed dryer is a novel energy saving design concept which involved a drying chamber with three sloping decks fixed vertically in a zigzag path as a single unit and sloped in opposite directions to facilitate uniform particle motion. Each deck measured 3.6 m x 0.78 m and consisted of perforated sheets having 13 holes per square centimeter where each perforation diameter was 1.5 mm. The three decks unit was horizontally vibrated at 3 mm amplitude using an eccentric shaft driven by a 5 kW electric motor. A centrifugal fan (5 kW) with the capacity of 2.83 m3 /s was used for supplying air for fluidization. The scope of this study was limited to optimize the vibration frequency and slope of the deck to obtain the expected particle moving speed of 6 mm/s at different moisture contents (MC). Orthodox rolled tea dhools at three levels of moisture (10%, 30% and 55%) were used for testing at different vibration frequencies and slope of the deck at the fixed amplitude and air flow rate. Results revealed that the optimum bed slopes were determined as 3%, 4% and 5% for 10%, 30% and 55% MC (wet basis), respectively, at 38Hz (504 rpm).
Illuminance Performance of Design Block Windows in Public Basic Schools in Ta...theijes
Illuminance is an important measure of the quantity of light falling on a surface especially in learning spaces. Design block windows are fast becoming a common window choice for schools as it is cheaper to maintain and provides more security. Scanty or no information exists on classroom illuminance for this window type especially for public basic schools.This research examined the illuminance in classrooms with design block windows per existing standards of classroom illuminance. Classrooms were measured and mapped into a variety of environmental variables and illuminance measurements taken using lux metres(LX 1330B) with only daylight at 0.72m from floor level with four parameters. Fourty percent of the classrooms studied had at any test time/condition, the recommended amount of lighting of 300-500 lux whiles 60 percent were either below or above this range. The study concluded that, more attention has to be given to the development and enhancement of passive daylighting through alternative ventilation systems like design block windows which can stay open in all conditions and under any weather.
Analysis Of Physic-Chemical Characteristics Of Polluted Water Samples And Eva...theijes
Water Quality Index values were also computed to evaluate the pollution load of waste water. Almost all the water quality parameters of the dyeing effluents have been found to be very high and well above the permissible limit as suggested by Bureau of Indian Standards1 . Effluent of dyeing samples were collected from common effluent treatment plants (CETPs) at Tiruchirapalli and analysed monthly for a period of 12 months in order to understand various physic-chemical characteristics of the water samples Ratios like Kellys2 , Magnesium, Sodium Absorption and percent sodium are well above the prescribed limits for irrigation and public use. Correlation studies have been carried out by using least squares method. The values of correlation co-efficients (range of r = -0.683 to 0.999).have been computed for correlations between all possible pair of physic-chemical water quality parameters of dyeing units effluents. Statistically significant correlations are noted between the pairs of water quality parameters as EC and TDS (r= 0.980), WQI and Na (r= 0.998), TH and Mg (=0.974), EC and Na (r= 0.870). Linear relationships have been developed for these correlations. Such correlation equations are found to be highly useful in predicting the water quality parameters
Boost Converter with Improved Voltage Conversion Ratio Using Bootstrap Capaci...theijes
In this paper, a high voltage boosting converter based on bootstrap capacitor and boost inductor is designed for improving the voltage conversion ratio. This is based on the fact that the number of inductors and capacitors are increased, and these inductors and capacitors are connected in series during the demagnetizing period, thereby pumping the energy created by the input voltage and the energy stored in the inductors into the output terminal. By changing the connection position of the anode of the diode and by using different pulse-widthmodulation control strategies, different voltage conversion ratios can be obtained. The boost converter is controlled by PID controller. This makes a very high voltage conversion ratio than existing methods. Simulation study has been carried out in MATLAB/Simulink.
The Concept of Control and Manage Plastic Pollution of India/Worldtheijes
The Plastic is part of requirement. So we can’t avoid them. Every country tired from plastic pollution. Government try to stop problem, so it creating many rules, but it’s not effected in human mentality. In this research paper, given direction to protect our country from plastic pollution problem, in which 1) Given financial demand to waste plastic, 2) Swachh Bharat Abhiyan inside creating ‘Bharat Swccata Knedra’. 3)There make product, which use in Plastic dam construction also use like road divider, foot path etc. In this concept plastic is set as like place which is recent requirement of people. In this paper I’m given example of India, how to India protect from Plastic pollution problem. And I know all world accept this technique because this is requirement of world.
Improvement of MFSK -BER Performance Using MIMO Technology on Multipath Non L...theijes
Digital communications has evolved rapidly with a lot of success. The new trend seems to be the reinvention of already existing and even discredited or discarded theories or in this case, channels. Extensive research into optimizing or enhancing already existing schemes is still gaining momentum with practical results for all to experience and utilize. This paper describes the design and BER performance of an M-ary frequency shift keyed (FSK) signaling and demodulation scheme improved by MIMO antenna technology for wireless communications. MFSK and MIMO systems were briefly reviewed including AWGN, Non LOS fading and an important factor employed to estimate the performance of digital transmission. The research was performed using MATLAB for simulation and evaluation of the BER
Improved Sugar Yield for Bioethanol Production by Modelling Enzymatic Hydroly...theijes
Alternative lignocellulosic substrates to produce high value-added products such as biofuel have been attractive. A Box-Behnken design was used to evaluate the effects of three parameters namely L/S ratio (50_ 100 mL/g), cellulase concentration (10_ 60 U/g) and incubation time (4_ 44h), on the enzymatic hydrolysis yield of physically pretreated Peganum harmala leaves. The fitted mathematical model allowed us to plot response surfaces as well as isoresponse curves and to determine optimal saccharification conditions. Statistical results indicated that the hydrolysis time and the enzyme concentration were the main factors influencing the release of reducing sugars. The selected optimal saccharification conditions were: L/S ratio of 75.0 mL/g, enzyme concentration of 35.0 U/g, and reaction time of 44.0h. These conditions allowed 39.6% of enzymatic hydrolysis yield versus 37.8±2.9%, respectively for the predicted values. The saccharification efficiency using enzyme treated biomass under optimized conditions was about 20-fold higher than before optimization. Fermentation of optimized cellulosic hydrolysate containing 12.6% glucose was performed using Saccharomyces cerevisiae yielded 4.75% ethanol production within 48h. These results showed a promising future of applying Peganum harmala leaves as potential lignocellulosic biomass for second generation bioethanol production.
Numerical Solution of Third Order Time-Invariant Linear Differential Equation...theijes
In this paper, we state the Adomian Decomposition Method (ADM) for third order time-invariant linear homogeneous differential equations. And we applied it to find solutions to the same class of equations. Three test problems were used as concrete examples to validate the reliability of the method, and the result shows remarkable solutions as those that are obtained by any knows analytical method(s).
Evaluation of Various Polymorphs by Different Techniques and Their Characteri...theijes
Polymorphism evolved out as a major point of attention for industry as well as regulatory agencies. Many pharmaceutical compounds exist in different crystalline forms and thus exhibit polymorphism. Polymorphism may affect Chemical and Physical Stability, Apparent Solubility, Dissolution, Bioavailability and Bioequivalence and Manufacturability of drug product, which require special attention during product development as it affects the quality, safety and efficacy of drug product. In addition to this, impact of polymorphism, monitoring and control of polymorphism and reporting scheme of polymorphic information in Abbreviated New Drug Application.
Microstructural and Dielectric Characterization of Sr doped Ba(Fe0.5Ta0.5)O3 ...theijes
Solid state reaction method was used to synthesize Ba1-xSrx(Fe0.5Ta0.5)O3 ceramic(x=0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5). The raw materials of making Sr doped Ba(Fe0.5Ta0.5)O3 were BaCO3, SrCO3, Fe2O3, Ta2O5 (purity better than 99%). Pellet and ring shaped samples prepared from each composition were sintered at 1400 and 1450ºC for 5 hour. The phase formation of Ba1-xSrx(Fe0.5Ta0.5)O3 was checked using X-ray diffraction (XRD) technique and observed a cubic perovskite crystal structure in space group Pm3m (221). Microstructure of the individual compound was examined by the field emission scanning electron micrograph (FESEM). Grain size was found to be varied with Sr content. The lattice parameter decreased with increasing Sr content. Dielectric spectroscopy was applied to investigate the electrical properties of BSFT at room temperature and in a frequency range of 100Hz–100 MHz. An analysis of the dielectric constant εʹ and loss tangent tan with frequency was performed assuming a distribution of relaxation times. The low frequency dielectric dispersion corresponds to the DC electrical conductivity.
Yanamadurru Drain Water Quality Assessment during 12-13 March, 2016theijes
The south foot of hill ranges on north side of West Godavari District is the birth of Yerrakaluva, within few kilometers in down stream, a reservoir constructed near Konguvarigudem. Yerrakaluva ends up at Duvva Village to Yanamadurru drain separated by a weir. Yanamadurru acts as a drain for discharging waste water from the fields and ends by confluence with Upputeru at Naidupalem. On upstream of Yanamadurru drain from Bhemavaram village, River Gasthani confluenced with this Drain. River Gosthani and Yanamadurru drain downstream from Garagaparru influenced with industrial discharges, municipal sewage, aqua culture waste discharges and causing pollution nuisance to the people adjacent to Bhimavaram Town. The stretch of Yanamadurru drain is surveyed with water sample collections and found that the drain water, from its starting point is meeting drinking water standards crossed the limit acceptable of 500mg/L TDS at Peppara and further deterioration found and exceeded permissible limit of 2100mg/L at Garagaparru before confluence of River Gosthani. The COD and BOD concentrations are reached 116 and 42mg/L further increased when crossing Bhimavaram Town due to sewage and MSW joins to Yanamadurru drain.
Today human-machine interaction is moving away from mouse and pen and is becoming pervasive and much more compatible with the physical world. With each passing day the gap between machines and humans is being reduced with the introduction of new technologies to ease the standard of living. In this paper, a rigorous analysis of different techniques of “Human-Machine Interaction” using gestures has been presented using accelerometer. Gestures can originate from any bodily motion or state but commonly originate from the face or hand. Robotics is the branch of engineering that deals with the design, construction, operation, and application of robots, as well as computer systems for their control, sensory feedback, and information processing we have implemented a system through which the user can give commands to a wireless robot using gestures. Through this method, the user can control or navigate the robot by using gestures of his/her palm, thereby interacting with the robotic system. The command signals are generated from these gestures using accelerometer sensing [1]. These signals are then passed to the robot to navigate it in the specified directions.
Fish Larval Nutrition: A Review on New Developmentstheijes
Despite considerable progress in recent years, many questions regarding fishlarval nutrition remain largely unanswered, and several research avenues remain open. A holistic understanding of the supply line of nutrients is important for developing diets for use in larval culture and for the adaptation of rearing conditions that meet the larval requirements for the optimal presentation of food organisms and ⁄ or microdiets. Marine fish larvae fed microdiets have not, at this stage, matched the growth and survival performances demonstrated by larvae fed live feeds such as rotifers and Artemia. This chapter discusses the issues related to the use of microdiets as a sole or partial feed for marine fish larvae. The techniques and methods of manufacturing microdiet particles, chemical and physical properties and the relationship to the ingestion and digestion are described. The aim of the present review is to revise the state of the art and to pinpoint the gaps in knowledge regarding larval nutritional requirements, the nutritional value of live feeds and challenges and opportunities in the development of formulated larval diets.
The Analysis of Men’s Emotional State from Heart Rate Using Daq & Labviewtheijes
The purpose of this project is to develop a system for men to assess the emotional states with the help of pulsometry. The system design comprises the hardware realization of signal detection, data recording and analysis. In this project two signals were selected for the analysis – pulse wave and facial video. In pulse wave, the threshold level is constant in between the range of 70 to 100. With the help of DAQmx library of LabVIEW environment, the data was recorded in LabVIEW NI USB-6008 device, which in turn connected to the pulse wave sensor, has been implemented. Facial video image capture and video analysis can be done in LabVIEW environment. For facial video, vision acquisition and vision assistant libraries are used. The advantages of LabVIEW are well observed in terms of the synchronous recording and analysis of the different types of signals. This project is the concern of the physicians, engineers of medical equipment and professionals occupied in the areas of human activity where the information about the men’s emotional state increases the work safety. In future, it can be enhanced with the help of facial expressions.
Reaction of consumers against the rising milk prices in Vietnam: A case study...theijes
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The objectives of this paper are two folds. The first one is to improve the time forecasting produced from the well known Earned Value Management (EVM), using the polynomial function. The time prediction observed from the polynomial model, which is compared against that observed from the most common method for time forecasting (critical path method), is a more accurate (mean absolute percentage of error is less than 2%) than that observed from the conventional deterministic forecasting methods (CDFMs). The second is to evaluate and forecast the overall project performance under uncertainty using the fuzzy inference. As the uncertainty is inherent in real life projects, the polynomial function and fuzzy inference model (PFFI) can assist the project managers, to estimate the future status of the project in a more robust and reliable way. Two examples are used to illustrate how the new method can be implemented in reality.
Abstract— Execution of engineering projects are tracked against critical metrics such as safety, quality,
delivery cost and inventory. Earned value is a key parameter that helps in assessing delivery (schedule) and cost.
Static shows that 70% of projects are over budget behind schedule, 52% of all projects finish at 189% of their
initial budget and some, after huge investments of time and money, are simply never completed. The rest of this
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With this time series information in the repository, analysis of trends, cost and schedule forecasts, and confidence levels of these performance estimates can be calculated using statistical analysis techniques enabled by the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) algorithm provided by the R programming system. ARIMA provides a statistically informed Estimate At Completion (EAC) and Estimate to Complete (ETC) to the program in ways not available using standard EVM calculations. Using ARIMA reveals underlying trends not available through standard EVM reporting calculations.
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For credible decisions to be made, we need confidence intervals on all the numbers we use to make decisions.
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Project Cost Management includes the processes involved in planning, estimating, budgeting, and controlling costs so that the project can be completed within the approved budget.
Making Agile Development work in Government ContractingGlen Alleman
Before any of the current “agile” development
methods, Earned Value Management provided information
for planning and controlling complex projects by
measuring how much “value” was produced for a given
cost in a period of time. One shortcoming of an agile
development method is its inability to forecast the future
cost and schedule of the project beyond the use of “yesterdays
weather” metrics. These agile methods assume
the delivered value, “velocity” in the case of XP, is compared
with the estimated value – this is a simple comparison
between budget and actual cost resulting in a Cost
Variance.
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Study of Probability Distributions of Cpi and Spi in Earned Value Analysis
1. The International Journal Of Engineering And Science (IJES)
|| Volume || 5 || Issue || 5 || Pages || PP -131-136 || 2016 ||
ISSN (e): 2319 – 1813 ISSN (p): 2319 – 1805
www.theijes.com The IJES Page 131
Study of Probability Distributions of Cpi and Spi in Earned Value Analysis
Priya Deshpande1
, Harihar S. Lunge2
1
Institute of Industrial and Computer management and Research, Nigdi , Pune.(M.S.)
2
Shri Shivaji Science college, Amaravati , (M.S.)
--------------------------------------------------------ABSTRACT-----------------------------------------------------------
Earned Value analysis (EVA) is the most efficient tool used for transitional review of project execution .It is
helpful to project managers and management team to value the progress of project work throughout the project
life cycle. The Earned Schedule (ES) is used to approximate the time or duration of project/ s for appropriate
evaluation of project execution. ES also help to forecast the time required to complete the project. When
combined with schedule analysis, ES can enhance the project. EVA provides the controlling tool for better
decision making in project management. The paper discuss about the probability distribution of Cost
performance Index (CPI) and Schedule performance Index (SPI). Best fitted distribution will help for
forecasting project duration effectively. This helps the Project Manager to prevent the over budgeted cost in
future. So an attempt is made to find the alternative distribution of CPI and SPI for better decision making. If the
project schedule performance shows poor results then manager need to take the corrective action with the help
of this tool. Weibull, Gamma and Exponentiated Exponential Distribution functions are used to study the effect
of SPI on CPI. For making better decision in project scheduling, Project managers can review the parameters
using EVM tool. The tool is useful in all types of civil engineering and software engineering projects.
Keywords: Earned Value Analysis(EVA), Earned Value Management(EVM), Cost Performance Index(CPI),
Scheduled Performance Index(SPI) , Probability distribution.
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Date of Submission: 06 May 2016 Date of Accepted: 25 May 2016
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I. INTRODUCTION
In project management, it is very important to keep the completion deadlines and project cost in control .Each
project should be completed in scheduled time and in budgeted cost and as per customer‟s dynamic expectation,
is a big task. Guiding the project team in appropriate direction with proper risk assessment associated with
project activities is not a very easy task. If the project manager is capable of executing the project plan as per
schedule with minimum variation, then it will certainly shows better performance as the project progresses.
If some problem arises during project execution, then some reserved sources are used to compensate that impact
on project. EVA minimizes the use of reserves by anticipating and estimating the performance of activities
during the execution of project. The effective use of EVA and ES will create good opportunities to complete the
project within time and cost.
In EVM, Earned value analysis (EVA) is used for measuring project progress in an effective way. EVA has the
capability to measurements of scope, schedule, and cost collectively. Earned value is the cumulative value of
work completed at that point of time. Planned value is the budgeted cost for accomplishing that activity. Actual
cost is the cumulative money spent to accomplish that activity at given point of time. The Earned Value
Management (EVM) indicators are Schedule Variance (SV) is used to compute the cost difference, i.e.SV=
Earned Value –Planned Value, while the Cost Variance (CV) = Earned Value – Actual Cost. The Cost and
Schedule Performance Indexes, CPI and SPI, respectively, are ratios. SPI is computed from the ratio, EV/PV,
while CPI equals EV/AC.
The cost indicators behave differently from those for schedule. The cost indicators appear to establish a trend
with some variation. Similarly, the schedule indicators initially appear to establish a trend, The study of Cost
Performance Index (CPI), Schedule Performance Index (SPI), will be studied to develop the new regression
model to forecast the project cost.
This paper discusses about effectiveness of Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule for better results
and proper decision making in Project and risk management. By knowing the over exact function form of CPI
and SPI, Project manager can work better on cost and time so as to reduce delay time. Project manager can
prepare alternative contingency plan to reduce risk and avoid the delay in project completion in minimal over
budget cast.
2. Study of Probability Distributions of CPI and SPI in Earned Value Analysis….
www.theijes.com The IJES Page 132
1.2.1 Problem statement: How to control the risk, delay in time and cost of the project using Earned Value
Management and Earned Scheduled?
1.2.2 Research objective: The main objective of this paper is to study the best suited distribution for CPI and
SPI to reduce risk, to study delay time in completion and to estimate the minimum budgeted cost.
H0: The assumed distribution of the data set is same as the observed one.
H1: The assumed distribution of the data set is not same as the observed one
II. LITERATURE REVIEW
(ES) is an extension to Earned Value Management (EVM) providing the capability of schedule analysis. ES was
introduced in 2003 by Lipke in article “Schedule Is Different” 6
. “Connecting Earned Value to the Schedule,” 6
“ES can be used for much more. It facilitates the ability to identify constraints, impediments, and the possibility
of rework at the task level. This information is very useful for management purposes, but it does not provide
performance indicators below the project level. ES can be applied to sub-levels of the project. Using this
capability, the project manager can analyze schedule performance at virtually any level desired – control
accounts, work packages, and critical path activities.”6
Earned Value Management is a system which integrate the scope, cost and time management of project by using
the resource –loaded project schedule and facilitate the systematic measurement of various factors involved in
it.11
EVM is endorsed by the Project management Institute 10
and is implemented by public and private
organization for project progress evaluation .The main benefit of EVM is that it is applicable to all types and
sizes of projects. Furthermore, the method is being used in research, instructed in several universities, and is
included in recent project management texts and the newer EVM analysis tools. Presently an appendix
describing ES is being prepared for inclusion in the PMIPractice Standard for Earned Value Management 9
.
III. TERMINOLOGY AND METHODS
3.1 Project Management
There are many tools to measure the project progress and evaluate the performance of the project. But EVA and
ES gives the efficient way of measuring the performance using cost performance index , schedule performance
index, ,earned scheduled and the various indices associated with it. During project execution if CPI = 1, it
indicates that the project is as per scheduled and completed at planned or budgeted cost. If SPI = 1 then it
indicates that the project is on schedule and it will be completed in estimated time. Now the project manager is
capable of estimating the delay time and over budgeted cost and can use the reserved resources to complete the
project in forecasted time and with minimal use of reserved resources.
3.1.1 Elements of Earned Value Management
There are 3 major elements of project management: scope, cost and time management. In EVM the review is
taken after specific interval of time and continuous monitoring is required to find the actual expenses and actual
amount of work completed. The periodic comparison is done between actual expenses and planned or budgeted
cost of that work done and ii) actual amount of work done and scheduled amount of work to be done in that
period. In this regard, two performance indices SPI and CPI are measured in terms of four indicators using three
functions.
3.1.2 Three functions of EVM:
1) Planned value,(PV) 2) Earned value (EV) and 3) Actual cost (AC)
Four factors and indicators used to in Earned value Analysis: -
1) Cost variance (CV) = EV – AC
2) Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV /AC
3) Schedule Variance (SV) = EV – PV
4) Schedule Performance Index (SPI) = EV/ PV
Earned Value Management (EVM) has been applied to various projects from several years. It has proven to be
a successful tool to project planning, tracking, and decision-making. And, the Reporting methods of EVM are
proved a very good tool for communicating with management ,customers and stakeholders. From many years,
in the Software Development Industry ,the EVM is applied to study the project performance . Statistical
techniques are used to predict project outcomes, and past data is used for new project planning. To confidently
apply EVM data for outcome prediction and project planning, data must be recorded in correct and accurate
manner. It is identified that the schedule indicators of EVM fall short to provide correct and good information.
To overcome this deficiency, the Software Development Industry has been applying the concept and methods of
“Earned Schedule”.
3. Study of Probability Distributions of CPI and SPI in Earned Value Analysis….
www.theijes.com The IJES Page 133
3.2 Earned Value Analysis
(EVA): Earned Value Analysis is computed by taking product os budgeted cost per activity and completion
percentage and sum all activities in the project. Basic elements required for Earned Value Analysis are :Budget
At Completion (BAC).
Total budgeted cost of project.
Planned value (PV): Earlier it is also called as Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled (BCWS).
Budgeted cost of work performed (BCWP): Budgeted cost of work that is completed in given point of time in
project.
Actual cost (AC) or Actual Cost of Work Performed (ACWP).
3.3 ES: Earned Schedule
ES method is largely measured to be a important advancement to the practice of EVM. Canada, India, Japan and
other countries, as ES is being used majorly in all industries where EVM is applied for all sizes of projects.
The measure of ES has provided schedule analysis and forecasting capacity to those using EVM. ES facilitates a
simple calculation for the forecasting of project duration and completion dates. In addition, it has been shown
that the forecasting is improved through the application of statistical methods 16
. “Earned Schedule is a fairly
new method for analyzing schedule performance; it is a derived application of Earned Value Management
(EVM) data. Created three years ago, the method has propagated to several countries and been used for various
types of work spanning a large and varied range of project sizes.
3.4 Forecasts
“A significant advantage from applying ES is that the method provides the capability to forecast the project
duration and the expected completion date. Other methods exist; however, through studies it has been shown
that ES is the most reliable forecasting method using EVM data.” 15
3.4.1 Elements of Earned Schedule Management
Various parameters used in Earned Value Management and Earned Schedule:
Actual Time (AT): This is the duration from the beginning of the project to status date.
Schedule at Completion (SAC): This is the original planned completion duration of the project.
Earned Schedule (ES): This is the duration from the beginning of the project to the date on which PV should
have been equal to the current value of EV.
ES = % Complete x SAC
Time Variance (TV): The Time variance is a measure of schedule performance in time units rather than cost
units.
TV = ES – AT
If TV value is negative the project is behind schedule, and if it is positive it is ahead of schedule.
Planned Value (PV) is the estimated value of the work planned to be done.
Earned Value (EV) is the estimated value of the work actually accomplished.
Actual Cost (AC) is the actual cost incurred for the work accomplished.
Cost Variance CV = EV - AC If it is negative then project is going to be over Budget.
Cost Performance Index (CPI) = EV / AC
Critical Ratio (CR) = CPI * SPI Overall Performance of the Project.
IV. PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
The basic need of knowing the exact form of distribution followed by CPI and SPI is to understand the nature of
these parameters. With the help of accurate function form of CPI and SPI, forecasting models can be developed
based on these distributions to reduce delay time and ultimately project cost.
Alternative distribution function forms will be available for predictive analysis which will enhance the
application domain area of the predictive models based on these distribution in Project management.
Diversity in projects causes the limitation for application of specific distribution in forecasting or predictive
models of project management.
To overcome this limitation, the paper discusses the set of various distributions which will be available to
develop the models for different types of projects.
Following distributions are used in project forecasting models:
4.1 Gamma-Type Density Function:
The Gamma-Type Density Function is having both a shape and a scale parameter. In Gamma distribution the
shape and scale parameters equal to 1, this results in the exponential density function.
The p.d.f. of Gamma distribution is:
f (x, α, α) = ( αα
/αα) xα– 1
e- αx
; α, α, x >0
4. Study of Probability Distributions of CPI and SPI in Earned Value Analysis….
www.theijes.com The IJES Page 134
Applications: It is used for the variables which are one sided bounded at one side ; for example x greater than
or equal to zero. The gamma density gives distribution of time required for exactly k independent events to
occur, assuming events take place at a constant rate. It is used frequently in queuing theory, reliability, and other
industrial applications. The parameters of Gamma distribution describes the scale and shape of the distribution.
The distribution shows great flexibility for analysis for positive real data.
Comments: Erlangian, Exponential, and Chi-square distributions are special cases. The negative binomial is an
similar to gamma distribution with discrete random variable.
Limitations of Gamma distribution: The distribution function or survival function cannot be expressed in a
closed form if shape parameter is not integer17
.
4.2 Exponentiated Exponential distribution:The Probability density function of exponentiated exponential is
defined by Gupta and Kunda (2001) with parameters α and λ as
f (x,α, α) =αα(1αeααx )α α.eααx 1 Where α, α, x > 0
Here α is the shape parameter and λ is the scale parameter. When α=1 it represent the exponential family.
Application: It gives distribution of time between independent events occurring at a constant rate.
Example: Distribution of time between arrival of jobs at a machine. It is useful in framing the strategy and
techniques in preventive maintenance.
4.3 Weibull distribution: Weibull distribution is more popular than Gamma distribution according to Gupta
and Kundu for analysis of lifetime data. 17
The p.d.f. of Weibull distribution is as follows:
f (x, α, α) = αα(x α)α-1
e(- αα)
; α, α, x >0
Application: Weibull distribution is generally useful for random variables which are left side bounded. To
determine the hazard rate of a system Weibull distribution is widely used.
The Weibull distribution is often used to model "time until failure." In this manner, it is applied in actuarial
science and in engineering work.
Example: Life distribution for some capacitors, ball bearings, relays, and similar variables..
Comments: Rayleigh and exponential distribution are special cases.
Advantage of Weibull distribution over Gamma distribution: Weibull distribution has an important property that
distribution function of Weibull distribution can be expressed in closed form for fractional and integer value
which does not hold true in Gamma distribution.
Due to this property, Weibull distribution is useful for any type of data.
Extreme value Distribution:
Application: Limiting model for the distribution of the maximum or minimum of N values selected from an
"exponential-type" distribution, such as the normal, gamma, or exponential.
Example: Distribution of breaking strength of some materials, capacitor breakdown voltage, gust velocities
encountered by airplanes, bacteria extinction times. These distributions are useful in Civil and Mechanical
engineering project management.
V. DATA SOURCES
The Secondary data 14
of eight projects is used.CPI and SPI of projects are computed from the data available
using SPSS version 20.The correlation between CPI and SPI is shown in the Table no.1
5.1 Data analysis for CPI and SPI in EVM and ES for performance measures
Data analysis is done using MS- Excel and SPSS Version 20 .Chi- square test is used to test the goodness of fit.
The chi-square test is used to test the validity of a distribution assumed for a random phenomenon. The test
evaluates the null hypotheses
H0: The data are governed by the assumed distribution against
H1
: The data are not drawn from the assumed distribution.
Comparison of Correlation and regression coefficient using Weibull , Gamma, and Exponential distribution.
5. Study of Probability Distributions of CPI and SPI in Earned Value Analysis….
www.theijes.com The IJES Page 135
Function Weibull Gamma Exponetial
CPI and SPI
Correlation
coefficient
0.4692 0.4692 0.4586
Regression
coefficient
0.4968 0.4968 0.4843
Table 1
Graph 1
The correlation is used to describe the existence of relationship between variables.
Pearson Correlation coefficients is used to evaluate the correlation between two variables is. It is denoted by „r‟
and it lies between -1 and 1.
If r = 1, then there is prefect positive correlation between variables under consideration.
Gamma distribution:
The table shows 2 and 3 the results of test of Goodness of fit using SPSS version 20.
Outcome of Chi- square Test of Goodness of Fit
Table 2
Test Statistics
EE_SPI weibull_SPI Gamma_SPI
Chi-Square .000a
.000a
.000a
Df 7 7 7
Asymp. Sig. 1.000 1.000 1.000
a. 8 cells (100.0%) have expected frequencies less than 5.
The minimum expected cell frequency is 1.0.
Table 3
Test Statistics
Weibull_CPI Gamma_CPI EE_CPI
Chi-Square .000a
.000a
.000a
Df 7 7 7
Asymp. Sig. 1.000 1.000 1.000
a. 8 cells (100.0%) have expected frequencies less than 5. The
minimum expected cell frequency is 1.0.
From the Table No. 2 and 3, we have observed that Weibull , Gamma and EE distributions are equally suitable
to know the nature of CPI and SPI. We accept the hypothesis that the distribution assumed for CPI and SPI is
same as the observed one.
CPI and SPI follows the Weibull and Gamma distribution according to 11
but EE also became an alternative
distribution to measure the CPI and SPI of the projects. This finding will help to measure the CPI and SPI in
case of weak performance of Weibull and Gamma distribution in forecasting models of project management.
VI. CONCLUSION
Project management is concerned with planning, controlling, checking project progress, monitoring milestones,
deliverables and managing risk in project execution. Earned Value Management provides the alarming signals to
project manager for making strategic decisions to avoid future loss. Earned Value Management technique helps
Project Manager to take corrective actions if project is not going as per schedule. It also helps to reduce the risk