The document provides an introduction to seismic hazard analysis which includes four main steps: 1) Characterization of seismic sources and estimation of seismicity parameters for each source. 2) Selection of ground motion attenuation models. 3) Quantification of seismic hazard by calculating probabilities of exceeding certain ground motion levels. 4) Mapping of seismic hazard across a region. It then discusses source characterization in more detail, including defining fault rupture zones, magnitude-area relations, earthquake catalogs, and magnitude frequency distributions models like characteristic and Gutenberg-Richter.

1. Introduction to Seismology Seismic Hazard Analysis 2 Department of Earth Sciences KFUPM Ali Oncel [email_address] Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

2. Seismic source characterization Estimation of seismicity (recurrence) parameters for each source Selection of ground motion attenuation models Quantification of the seismic hazard Sari and Manuel Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM log( N) M RECURRENCE Probability of exceedance Acceleration SEISMIC HAZARD CURVES F 2 F 1 Faults (line sources) Area source SOURCE MODELS pga, S a , A i GROUND MOTION ATTENUATION distance SEISMIC HAZARD MAP

3. PART 1: SOURCE CHARACTERIZATION Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

4. From Koji Okumura

5. Rupture zones for large historical earthquakes along the North and East Anatolian faults (Ambraseys & Finkel, 1988; Ambraseys & Finkel, 1995; Barka, 1992; Ikeda et al., 1991) from Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM 1254 967 1784 1668 1035 1050 1043 From Koji Okumura

6. Both walls Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM east west First multi-event trench on the North Anatolian fault Koji Okumura

8. Magnitude area relations Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

9. Magnitude scales: Body wave magnitude (Mb) Richter magnitude (ML) Surface wave magnitude (Ms) Moment magnitude (Mw) Catalogs: Preliminary Determination of Earthquakes (PDE) International Seismic Centre (ISC) Local catalogs (Ambraseys) EARTHQUAKE CATALOGS Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

10. Magnitude saturation Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

11. NEIC: Earthquake Search Results Rectangular Grid Search Latitude Range: 39 to 41.5 Longitude Range: 27.25 to 31 Number of Earthquakes: 3468 Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

12. Development of one catalog from several catalogs Declustering Use of Catalog Calculation of Gutenberg-Richter a and b-values Smooth seismicity model (background) Comparison with model rates of seismicity Developing uniform catalog: Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

13. 1. Characteristic a. Assess magnitude of potential earthquakes (segmentation, floating) b. Calculate recurrence of earthquake= moment of char earthquake/moment rate of fault = rigidity*area*displacement/rigidity*area*slip rate rigidity modulus (resistance to shearing motion used in U.S. is 3.0 X 10exp11 gm/cm*s*s(dynes/cm*cm ) 2. Truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution a. log N=a-b M MAGNITUDE FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM Log of no. of earthquakes >=M Magnitude (M) Magnitude (M) Characteristic Gutenberg-Richter

14. Assumes that where smaller magnitude earthquakes have occurred in the past is where larger earthquakes will occur in the future. Smoothed Seismicity Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM

15. Quiz of the Week For Central Arabian Graben Zone, seismicity parameters are given as: a=4.02 b= 0.65 Mmax=6.2 Considering the regional maximum magnitude (6.2), calculate The frequency of M6.2? The recurrence period of M6.2? Earthquake Probability of M6.2 for 50 yrs? P(t)= 1-e -t/T Equations Introduction to Seismology-KFUPM