This document summarizes climate change projections for the Cairngorms National Park region in Scotland. It discusses how climate models are used to project impacts under different emissions scenarios. Key findings include increasing winter precipitation but decreasing summer precipitation and snowfall by 2050. Temperature is projected to increase by 1.5°C on average by 2050 under a medium-high emissions scenario. The document also describes plans to develop a community-led adaptation strategy for the tourism sector in the region to address climate change vulnerabilities.

1. WP2 Vulnerability to Climate Change
WP3 Development of community-led
adaptation strategy
Alexandre Gagnon
Environmental Initiatives Research Group
University of the West of Scotland
John McClatchey
Environmental Research Institute, North Highland College, UHI
Clive Bowman
Centre for Mountain Studies, Perth College, UHI

2. How to predict the impacts of climate
change?
Fig. Flow-chart for assessing climate change impacts.
Source: Dr. Mark New, Oxford University
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3. SRES emission scenarios
 SRES: four future storylines
Source: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
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4. From emissions to concentrations
 By using biogeochemical cycle models that estimate the fate of
emitted greenhouse gases
Source: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
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5. Global and regional models
 General circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere and ocean
simulate the response of the climate system to increased
concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
Fig. Example of a GCM Source: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007
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6. Regional models
 Higher resolution than General Circulation Models (GCMs)
Fig. UK average winter precipitation.
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7. Climate change scenarios
 Outputs from regional climate model of the Hadley Centre
 50 resolution grid points
 Four GHG emission scenarios. Alternative projections of how
the future climate might evolve over the 21st century:
◦ Low
◦ Medium-low
◦ Medium-high (also referred to as ‘Business As Usual scenario’)
scenario.
◦ High
 Time periods
◦ 2020s
◦ 2050s
◦ 2080s
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8. Temperature projections
Monthly daily mean temperature
Low emissions scenario
20 Cairngorm National Park
15
Temperature (°C)
10
5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
month
1961-1990 2020s 2050s 2080s
Monthly daily mean temperature
High emissions scenario
20 Cairngorm National Park
15
Temperature (°C)
10
5
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
month
29/04/2009 1961-1990 Gagnon
A. S. 2020s 2050s 2080s

9. Precipitation projections for the UK
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10. Precipitation projections
Monthly total precipitation rate
Medium-High emissions scenario
Cairngorm National Park
100
Precipitation (mm/month)
75
50
25
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
month
1961-1990 2020s 2050s 2080s
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11. Wind projections
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12. Snowfall projections
 Gridpoint centred over Cairngorm National Park
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13. Scenarios obtained for other climate
variables
 Max and min temperature
 Relative humidity
 Fractional cloud cover
 Soil moisture content
 Inter-annual variability of temperature and precipitation (2080s only)
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14. Summary of climate change projections
 Predicted climate, in general terms, suggests increasingly wetter winter
half year and drier summer half year. Predicted temperature changes
are for progressive warming over the next 100 years.
 Assuming a ‘Business-As-Usual’ scenario by 2050, annual temperature
is expected to be approximately 1.5 C warmer on average
 Precipitation is projected to increase in the winter, but decrease in the
summer months
 For snowfall, the model projections are provided for the months of
December, January, and February only. By 2050, snowfall is projected
to decrease by 44%, 40%, and 40% respectively, during those three
months. Seasonally, the decrease in snowfall will be 41.5%
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15. Data provided at higher resolution
 5km grid – better for ski resorts but no snowfall data
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16. UKCIP08 -> UKCP09
 Postponed from Autumn 2008 to early summer 2009
 Dummy data have not been provided
 Higher spatial and temporal resolution
 Better assessment of uncertainty – two types of uncertainty
Output 1 Output 2
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17. Further analysis using local data
 Climate change and tourism
 Cairngorm skiing industry and its ability to adapt to a changing
climate
 Viability of snow-based tourism not a simple function of winter
temperature
 Winters may be milder but wetter and therefore when
snowfall occurs there may be greater amounts falling
 Wind direction – changes in frequency of winds that
encourage distribution towards the pistes during snowfall
events?
 Tourism climatic index
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18. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

19. Combination of climate and socio-
economic processes
 Cairngorm National Park
 Focus on adaptation strategy for tourism sector
Climate
Climate
processes
 Socio-economic development at national scale needs to be processes
considered in the development of adaptation strategy
e.g. ageing and wealthier population
 Social change scenarios up to 2031 Vulnerability
 time scale for adaptation? assessment
 Transnationality aspect
Socio-
 Sweden and Finland (winter tourism) Socio-economic
economic
processes
processes
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20. Workshop – WP3
 Development of a community-led climate change adaptation
strategy for the tourism sector
 Participatory approach
 Transnationality
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