Bill Gething, architect and chair, BRE Global Sustainability Board

1. Specifying Low Carbon Buildings
Fit for the Future?
Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture
October 2010

2. What future? Temperature: Global Mean – Change ºC
7 High
(A1F1)
6
Med
5
30% coastal wetlands lost (A1B)
4
Low
3
(B1)
30% extinction
2
1
0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

3. Shaping the Future? Global GHG Emissions (Gt CO2 eq/ yr)
160
140
High
120
(A1F1)
100
80
Med
60
(A1B)
40
Low
20
(B1)
World
Stabilisation
Scenario
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
(-4%/ yr from 2016)

4. Facing up to a changing climate
Hotter drier summers
Wetter warmer winters
Extreme events more likely
Sea level rise

5. Facing up to a changing climate
Hotter drier summers
Wetter warmer winters
Extreme events more likely
Sea level rise

6. UK Climate Change Projections A probabilistic approach
Median value
Probability of change
1 2 3 4 5
Change in temperature

7. Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East
7
6
5
90%
4
67%
3
50% Likely Very Likely
33%
2
10%
Low
1
0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
1º C

8. Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East
7
6
5
Med
4
Zero Carbon Hub
Recommended target
3
2
1
0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
2º C

9. Temperature: Annual Mean – Change ºC South East
7
High
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
3º C

13. 2020
2050
Zero Carbon Hub
Recommended target
+4 ºC
2 ºC (2003)
2080
+4>5 ºC
10% 10% 50% 90% 90%

14. Precipitation + Soil shrinkage
2050s Med 50%
Summer Annual Winter

15. Precipitation + Soil shrinkage
Xtra Lo 2050s Med 50% Xtra Hi
Summer Annual Winter

16. Design agenda: Comfort
Construction
Water
Context: Regional variation + geographic specifics
Existing stock
Low carbon imperative + infrastructure resilience
Robustness/ maintenance
Delight.
Tactics: Behavioural adaptation
Timing
Scale
Competition, consensus and regulation.

17. Comfort
Keeping cool - internal
Climate issues & information
Climate headlines
Keeping cool - external
Timescale
Keeping warm

18. Comfort
?
ps
Ga
Keeping cool - internal
Climate issues & information
Climate headlines
Keeping cool - external
Timescale
Keeping warm

19. Climate headlines
Comfort
Keeping warm
Keeping cool - internal
Keeping cool - external
Tr
an
sl
Climate issues & information at
io
n?
Timescale

20. Construction
?
ps
Ga
Stability –above ground
Stability –below ground
Fixings and weatherproofing
Materials behaviour
Work on site

21. Water
Water conservation
Drainage
Flooding
Landscape

22. Modern methods of construction
Deep plan
Lightweight walls
Large glazed openings
Flat roofs
Short life, high maintenance materials

23. Retrofitting comfort
Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Kips Bay Apartments, New York, I M Pei 1961

24. “Designing in” comfort
Source: Reyner Banham: The Architecture of the Well-tempered Environment: Lafayette Apartments, Detroit, I Mies vander Rohe 1961

25. Local Distinctiveness
Moscow Izmir Sao Paulo Abu Dhabi
Sydney Shanghai Harare

26. Resilience
The Eastgate Centre, Harare Mick Pearce + Ove Arup, 1996

27. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad

28. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
Photos: Morley von Sternberg

29. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
Photos: Morley von Sternberg

30. Enveloping adaptation: Rich Mix – Penoryre & Prasad
Photos: Morley von Sternberg

31. http://www.innovateuk.org/_assets/pdf/other-publications/tsb-climatechangereport-0510_final1.pdf
Bill Gething: Sustainability + Architecture bill@billgething.co.uk