This document discusses climate change impacts and the need for adaptation. It provides an overview of projected temperature and precipitation changes for the UK, and how extremes may change. It outlines tools and guidance from the UK Climate Impacts Programme to help with adaptation planning, including building adaptive capacity and delivering adaptation actions. Options discussed include preventing effects through climate resilience, accepting losses, and changing location or use. The document promotes continued learning and information sharing to support effective adaptation.

2. Supporting Adaption: Guidance, Tools and Learning through Doing Mr Roger Street UK Climate Impacts Program

3. Climate Changing: Are you ready? Supporting Adaptation: Guidance, Tools and Learning through Doing Tuesday, 25 th September 2007 Roger B. Street – UK Climate Impacts Programme Action Planning and Opportunities for Land-Based Businesses

4. Climate is Changing Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air (and ocean) temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level (IPCC WG1 – AR4) Impacts of these changes are already apparent - globally, nationally and locally . Individuals/businesses and organizations are at risk and some have already begun to respond adaptation. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995-2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record (since 1850)

5. Climate Will Continue to Change Global average surface temperature increase: <10% probability less than 1.5 o C Likely range 2-4.5 o C with best guess 3 o C Higher than 4.5 o C cannot be excluded Over the next two decades warming of about 0.2 o C per decade regardless of future emissions. Even if GHG and aerosols stabilised at 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 o C per decade is expected.

6. Regional Nature of Projected Temperature Increases – UKCIP02

7. Projected Precipitation Change – UKCIP02 2020s 2050s 2080s

9. Changes in Extremes Source: Peter Stott, Hadley Centre Increase in the number of extremely warm days (2080s) Winter: 6-12 days/year Summer: 12-30 days/year observations Medium-High emissions Temperature change, ° C 8 6 4 2 0

10. Need for Adaptation and Mitigation Adaptation is needed as we are already committed to some degree of climate change irregardless of mitigation efforts. Mitigation is needed to reduce the amount and rate of future climate change – avoiding dangerous or unacceptable climate change Influenced by historic emissions Determined by current and future emissions

11. Adaptation – for the long haul

12. UKCIP Tools and Guidance

13. Adaptation Strategies & Measures Building Adaptive Capacity – creating information, social capital, conditions (regulatory, institutional, and managerial), and support systems and means that are needed as a foundation for delivering adaptation actions Awareness raising Data collection and monitoring Changing standards Developing supportive policies Research Organizational learning Delivering Adaptation Actions – actions that help to reduce vulnerability to climate risks or to exploit climate opportunities Building climate resilience Accepting losses Changing use and/or location Exploiting opportunities

17. UKCIP08 – The next generation Previous climate scenarios (e.g. UKCIP02) were essentially single model runs – other climate models produced different results UKCIP02 One way of doing this is to use many versions of the model – the user will be presented with a spread of results that reflects the range of plausible outcomes Important to determine the uncertainty associated with the climate model results

19. Keeping Informed www.ukcip.org.uk More information on impacts, adaptation and tools and guidance UKCIP08 to be launched in October 2008 UKCIP08 Climate Trends Report to be published Autumn 2007 More information available through the UKCIP Scenarios Gateway :

21. Break Out Sessions 45mins for each session

22. Conclusions – The 4 big Issues Mr Poul Christensen Chairman