As one of the most populated tropical forest countries in the world, Indonesia faces huge challenges in balancing development, livelihood improvement of its citizens and conservation of its natural assets. Many stakeholders are not involved in the process. An important step to improve the current situation is to facilitate a more collaborative land use planning and allocation process that benefits all parties. Through a series of multiple stakeholder workshops over a two-year period, PPA allowed diverse actors and interests to jointly predict and anticipate trajectories of land use change. CIFOR Scientist Bayuni Shantiko with Nining Liswanti presented on 8 June 2013 for the panel discussion "Spatial planning in Indonesia: Insights from research and action in West Kalimantan and Moluccas Provinces" at the 2013 IASC conference held on Mount Fuji in Japan.

1. Scenarios building in complex
commons:Challenges, opportunities and lessons learned in engaging multiple stakeholders to
improve land use decisions
Bayuni Shantiko & Nining Liswanti

2. Background
 Multiple layers of governance and
stakeholders
 High uncertainty for the future in
complex common in developing
tropical countries
 The public and decision makers need
to be better informed on what could
happen in the future

3. Research
Question
What process can allow multiple needs of land
taken into account in land use decision
process?

4. Participatory prospective
analysis
 An applied foresighting
approach developed by CIRAD
 PPA group “experts”: district
government, local community,
customary leaders, private
sector, NGOs
 Develop action plan to be
integrated with regency
planning

5. STAKEHOLDERS
 Local government agencies
and parliament
 National Park
 Private sectors
 Communities
 Customary leaders
 Universities and NGO
 15 – 20 stakeholders

6. The 8 steps of PPA

7. System Boundary
Q: What could be the
future of land use?
Time: 20 years
Geographic boundary:
Kapuas Hulu regency
Central Seram
regency
Define the
boundary of the
system (Topic)
Identify the variables
Define the variables
Analyze their mutual
influences

8. Variables
 Economic, social, politic,
environment
 For example:
• Customary law
• Education
• Income

9. 4. Analysis mutual influence
 Direct influence variable i to variable j ;
 Direct influence = 1; No influence = 0
 Indirect influence (i k) :
i j k

10. I/D Matrix
(Influence/Dependence)
50 INTERNAL VARIABLES

11. Key drivers: Government policy, use of
technology, customary law and wisdom,
mindset, participation, education and skills

12. Building scenarios process
3
2
4
1

14. From Scenario to Action
vs
STEPS IN HARMONY PANNING THE GOLD GETTING THE STONE
Policies that favor and compiled together with
the community, enhance public participation in
the planning process to monitoring and
supervision
Access to education and skills are
improved
PEOPLE MASTER APPROPRIATE AND
ENVIRONMENTALLY FRIENDLY
TECHNOLOGY.
Synergy between customary law and
positive law supports the course of
development
EDUCATION IS NOT ACCESSIBLE FOR ALL
THE PEOPLE
Indigenous peoples have split as a result of
the weakening of customary law and
indigenous knowledge
the stakeholders seek to win personal and
group interests over the land use
Conflicts in society escalate triggered by the
exclusion of the society in the development
process

15. Challenge
 Who pays the cost of
participation once ongoing donor
assistance is over, especially for
future monitoring of the
implementation?
 How to institutionalize the
process into current government
system?
 Idealistic vs. realistic scenarios?

16. Conclusion
 The PPA process proved successful in bringing together different
stakeholders to view their environment from a very different
perspective.
 Using PPA and its scenario development, different stakeholders
started realizing the need of working together, to collaborate for
further action to make change affecting their future

17. Thank you
Arigato Contact:
b.shantiko@cgiar.org
n.liswanti@cgiar.org