The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

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Hawaii Democrats Ed Case and Mazie Hirono both sit at 46 percent in a new survey of likely primary voters.

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The Civil Beat Poll — June 2012 Democratic Senate Primary

  1. 1. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 1 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%--If the Democratic Senate primary were held today, would you vote forCongresswoman Mazie Hirono, or former Congressman Ed Case?[NOTE: Order of presentation of candidate names was randomized] QDemMatchup Hirono 46% Case 46% Unsure 8% Total 100%
  2. 2. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 2 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * US Crosstabulation% within US US Right Wrong UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 54% 27% 61% Case 39% 63% 23% Unsure 7% 10% 16%Total 100% 100% 100% US * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureUS Right 69% 50% 45% Wrong 20% 46% 39% Unsure 12% 5% 16%Total 100% 100% 100%
  3. 3. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 3 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Hawaii Crosstabulation% within Hawaii Hawaii Right Wrong UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 60% 26% 58% Case 33% 64% 31% Unsure 7% 10% 11%Total 100% 100% 100% Hawaii * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureHawaii Right 68% 37% 44% Wrong 24% 58% 48% Unsure 8% 4% 8%Total 100% 100% 100%
  4. 4. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 4 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%Oahu Only: DemMatchup * Rail Crosstabulation% within Rail Rail Support Oppose UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 55% 35% 48% Case 38% 58% 27% Unsure 7% 6% 25%Total 100% 100% 100%Oahu Only: Rail * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureRail Support 58% 41% 40% Oppose 33% 54% 32% Unsure 10% 5% 27%Total 100% 100% 100%
  5. 5. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 5 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Marriage Crosstabulation% within Marriage Marriage Yes No UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 56% 32% 36% Case 37% 58% 49% Unsure 7% 10% 15%Total 100% 100% 100% Marriage * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureMarriage Yes 67% 44% 41% No 25% 46% 41% Unsure 8% 11% 17%Total 100% 100% 100%
  6. 6. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 6 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Economy Crosstabulation% within Economy Economy Jobs/Economy Debt/SS/Medi UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 53% 41% 44% Case 37% 52% 43% Unsure 9% 7% 13%Total 100% 100% 100% Economy * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureEconomy Jobs/Economy 42% 30% 40% Debt/SS/Medi 45% 58% 40% Unsure 13% 12% 19%Total 100% 100% 100%
  7. 7. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 7 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Obama Crosstabulation% within Obama Obama Approve Approve Disapprove Disapprove strongly somewhat somewhat strongly UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 58% 44% 29% 3% 36% Case 35% 41% 61% 92% 36% Unsure 7% 15% 11% 6% 27%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Obama * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureObama Approve strongly 78% 48% 48% Approve somewhat 16% 15% 31% Disapprove somewhat 3% 7% 6% Disapprove strongly 1% 29% 10% Unsure 1% 1% 5%Total 100% 100% 100%
  8. 8. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 8 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Obama_Condensed Crosstabulation% within Obama_Condensed Obama_Condensed Approve Disapprove UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 55% 10% 36% Case 37% 84% 36% Unsure 8% 6% 27%Total 100% 100% 100% Obama_Condensed * DemMatchup Crosstabulation% within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case UnsureObama_Condensed Approve 95% 63% 80% Disapprove 4% 36% 15% Unsure 1% 1% 5%Total 100% 100% 100%
  9. 9. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 9 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Congressional_District Crosstabulation% within Congressional_District Congressional_District 1 2DemMatchup Hirono 44% 48% Case 46% 45% Unsure 10% 7%Total 100% 100% DemMatchup * County Crosstabulation% within County County Oahu Hawaii Maui KauaiDemMatchup Hirono 42% 57% 55% 48% Case 49% 39% 32% 46% Unsure 9% 3% 12% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% DemMatchup * County_CD Crosstabulation% within County_CD County_CD Oahu 1 Oahu 2 Hawaii Maui KauaiDemMatchup Hirono 44% 39% 57% 55% 48% Case 46% 55% 39% 32% 46% Unsure 10% 6% 3% 12% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  10. 10. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 10 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Gender Crosstabulation% within Gender Gender Male FemaleDemMatchup Hirono 48% 45% Case 45% 47% Unsure 7% 9%Total 100% 100% DemMatchup * Age Crosstabulation% within Age Age 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65+DemMatchup Hirono 19% 36% 40% 51% 49% Case 73% 52% 53% 39% 44% Unsure 8% 12% 8% 9% 7%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  11. 11. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 11 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Politics Crosstabulation% within Politics Politics Liberal/Progressive Moderate Conservative UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 58% 38% 33% 54% Case 36% 53% 61% 33% Unsure 7% 9% 6% 13%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% DemMatchup * PartyID Crosstabulation% within PartyID PartyID Democrat Republican Independent UnsureDemMatchup Hirono 58% 20% 27% 34% Case 35% 73% 62% 55% Unsure 7% 6% 11% 10%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  12. 12. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 12 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Race_Ethnicity Crosstabulation% within Race_Ethnicity Race_Ethnicity Caucasian Japanese Filipino Hawaiian Chinese Hispanic Other/MixedDemMatchu Hirono 44% 47% 44% 62% 37% 38% 49%p Case 50% 42% 43% 29% 57% 63% 44% Unsure 6% 11% 13% 9% 6% 8%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% DemMatchup * Education Crosstabulation% within Education Education High School College Graduate No Degree Degree Degree DegreeDemMatchup Hirono 42% 50% 45% 45% Case 45% 40% 47% 47% Unsure 13% 10% 8% 7%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% DemMatchup * Religion Crosstabulation% within Religion Religion Other Evangelic Christia Buddhis Catholic al Mormon n t Shinto Jewish Other NoneDemMatch Hirono 46% 30% 42% 43% 62% 80% 60% 35% 48%up Case 47% 58% 42% 47% 28% 20% 40% 62% 45% Unsure 7% 12% 15% 10% 10% 3% 6%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
  13. 13. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 13 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6% DemMatchup * Military_Family Crosstabulation% within Military_Family Military_Family Yes NoDemMatchup Hirono 40% 47% Case 50% 45% Unsure 10% 8%Total 100% 100% DemMatchup * Annual Household Income Crosstabulation% within Annual Household Income Annual Household Income $50,000 or $50,000- $100,000 less $100,000 or MoreDemMatchup Hirono 53% 45% 38% Case 38% 48% 54% Unsure 9% 7% 8%Total 100% 100% 100%
  14. 14. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 14 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%Second Congressional District Only: DemMatchup * Congress Crosstabulation % within Congress Congress Marx Gabbard Hanneman Kiaaina Unsure DemMatchup Hirono 58% 46% 49% 56% 38% Case 39% 48% 46% 44% 40% Unsure 3% 7% 5% 23% Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%Oahu Only: DemMatchup * Mayor Crosstabulation % within Mayor Mayor Cayetano Carlisle Caldwell Unsure DemMatchup Hirono 32% 50% 54% 33% Case 61% 39% 41% 41% Unsure 7% 11% 5% 25% Total 100% 100% 100% 100%
  15. 15. Civil Beat Poll, June 5-7, 2012 15 731 Likely Democratic Senate Primary Voters – Margin of Error +/- 3.6%--In a [General Election] contest between Mazie Hirono and Linda Lingle, whowould you vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only] QHironoLingle Hirono 65% Lingle 28% Unsure 7% Total 100% HironoLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation % within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure HironoLingle Hirono 94% 38% 50% Lingle 4% 55% 19% Unsure 2% 7% 31% Total 100% 100% 100%--In a [General Election] contest between Ed Case and Linda Lingle, who wouldyou vote for? [NOTE: Democratic Primary Voters only] QCaseLingle Case 68% Lingle 18% Unsure 14% Total 100% CaseLingle * DemMatchup Crosstabulation % within DemMatchup DemMatchup Hirono Case Unsure CaseLingle Case 68% 70% 52% Lingle 12% 25% 15% Unsure 20% 5% 33% Total 100% 100% 100%

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