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Ipsos MORI: Political Monitor September 2012

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Labour keep lead, but David Cameron outscores Ed Miliband on many leadership qualities, says our latest Political Monitor poll

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Ipsos MORI: Political Monitor September 2012

  1. 1. POLITICAL MONITOR September 2012Contacts: Bobby.Duffy@ipsos.com Gideon.Skinner@ipsos.com Tomasz.Mludzinski@ipsos.com 020 7347 3000
  2. 2. Voting Intentions
  3. 3. Voting Intention: all giving an opinion vs. those“certain to vote” 3How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?” All giving a voting All certain to vote: 55% intention: 81% 14% 16% Labour 32% 30% Conservative 12% 13% Lib Dem Other 42% 41% Conservative lead = -10 Conservative lead = -11Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012, all certain to vote = 567 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  4. 4. Voting Intentions January ‘03 – September ‘12 (all certain to vote) 4 How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow? 2005 Howard elected General Brown as PM 2010 (Nov 03) Election (Jun 07) General Cameron elected Election50 (Dec 05) 41%4030 30%20 13%10 0 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jul-03 Sep-03 Jul-04 Sep-04 Jul-05 Sep-05 Jul-06 Sep-06 Jul-07 Sep-07 Jul-08 Sep-08 Jul-09 Sep-09 Jul-10 Sep-10 Jul-11 Sep-11 Jul-12 Sep-12 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 May-03 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Base: c. 1,000 British adults certain to vote each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  5. 5. Satisfaction with the Coalitionand Party Leaders
  6. 6. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 6How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country /doing his job as Prime Minister/Deputy Prime Minister/Leader of the Labour Party? Net change Net from August satisfaction 2012 % Dissatisfied % SatisfiedDavid Cameron 58 34 -24 -8Nick Clegg 66 23 -43 -16Ed Miliband 47 38 -9 -7The Government 64 28 -36 -8Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  7. 7. Satisfaction with Party leaders August ‘07 – September ‘12 7 How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is running the country / doing his job as … ? 70 General Clegg elected Election (Jan 08) 60 50 Cameron 40 38%% satisfied 30 34% Miliband 20 Brown Clegg 23% 10 Campbell 0 Jul-12 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Nov-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-09 Nov-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Nov-11 Sep-12 Mar-12 Mar-09 Mar-11 May-10 May-12 May-08 May-09 May-11 Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  8. 8. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers 8How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister? CAMERON Net satisfaction Number of months from becoming Prime Minister THATCHER BLAIR MAJOR BROWN Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephoneBase: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  9. 9. David Cameron (satisfaction) 9 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? September 2012 January 2006 – September 2012 Don’t know Satisfied Dissatisfied 60 7% 50 34% 40 30 Satisfied 20 10 58% 0Dissatisfied Net = -24 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  10. 10. David Cameron 10 (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way David Cameron is doing his job as leader of the Conservative Party/ as Prime Minister? September 2012 January 2006 – September 2012 Don’t know Satisfied 100 4% 90Dissatisfied 80 70 27% 60 Satisfied 50 40 Dissatisfied 30 20 69% 10 0 Net = +42 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 254 Conservative supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  11. 11. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders 11(1994 – 2012)How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party? BLAIR (1994-1997) CAMERON (2005-2010) Net satisfaction HOWARD (2003-2005) Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader MILIBAND (2010-2012) HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003) Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  12. 12. Ed Miliband (satisfaction) 12 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? September 2012 October 2010 – September 2012 Don’t know Satisfied 60 Dissatisfied 14% 50 38% 40 30 Satisfied 20 47% 10Dissatisfied Net = -9 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  13. 13. Ed Miliband 13 (satisfaction among Labour supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Ed Miliband is doing his job as leader of the Labour Party? September 2012 October 2010 – September 2012 Don’t know Satisfied 70 11% 60 Satisfied 50 40 30 34% 55% 20 Dissatisfied 10 0Dissatisfied Net = +21 Base: 342 Labour supporters 18+, 15th - 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  14. 14. Nick Clegg (satisfaction) 14Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/as Deputy Prime Minister? September 2012 January 2008 – September 2012 Don’t know Satisfied 70 Dissatisfied 11% 60 23% 50 40 30 20 Satisfied 10 0 66% Dissatisfied Net = -43 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephoneBase: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  15. 15. Nick Clegg 15 (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters) Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Nick Clegg is doing his job as leader of the Liberal Democrats/ as Deputy Prime Minister? September 2012 January 2008 – September 2012 Don’t know Satisfied 100Dissatisfied 6% 90 80 Satisfied 70 60 43% 50 40 30 51% 20 Dissatisfied 10 0 Net = -8 Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone Base: 100 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  16. 16. Economic Optimism
  17. 17. Economic Optimism Index 17 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse over the next 12 months? September 2012 80 Don’t know 70 3% Improve Get worse 60 Stay the same 26% 50 35% 40 30 20 10 ImproveGet worse 36% 0 Sep-11 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-11 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-12 May-04 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-12 May-11 Stay the same EOI = -9 Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  18. 18. Index (get better minus get worse) 20 40 0 -80 -60 -40 -20 Jan-97 May-97 Sep-97 +28 Jan-98 May-98 Sep-98 Jan-99 May-99Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Sep-99 over the next 12 months? Jan-00 -46 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 -56 May-02 Sep-02 Jan-03 May-03 Sep-03 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Jan-06 May-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Jan-09 May-09 -64 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 +23 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Do you think that the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same or get worse Jan-12 May-12 -48Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Sep-12 -9 18
  19. 19. Leader image
  20. 20. Leader image 20In your opinion, which party leader, David Cameron or Ed Miliband, is stronger on each of the following? Eloquent 59% Cameron 15% Miliband Prime Ministerial 57% 17% Tough enough for the job of PM 54% 18% Smart enough for the job of PM 54% 22% Represents Britain 46% 26% Likeable 38% 29% Has the right values 37% 35% Is a good person 35% 30% A man of faith 34% 16% Would be fun to meet in person 34% 21% Will protect British jobs 31% 37% Understands people like me 26% 36%Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

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