3. Polls over the past two weeks have shown an average of an almost completely even race, with Mitt
Romney holding a very slight edge over Barack Obama. The polls have stayed roughly around where
they were directly after the first debate, suggesting that Romney’s gains were more permanent than
originally thought.
Presidential Race
Tie R+1 R+6 O+2 O+3 O+1 R+1 R+1 R+4 Tie
100%
90%
80%
47% 48% 45% 47% 49% 49% 46% 45% 45% 45%
70%
60%
7% 3% 4% 7% 9% 6%
50% 12% 5% 3% 10%
40%
30% Obama
47% 49% 51% 46% 48% 47% 46% 49% Undecided
20% 45% 45%
Romney
10%
0%
Page 3
4. Despite being expected to lose, Romney clearly won the first debate. The first debate
shifted the race in a significant way as it is now tied at 47% after Obama’s pre-debate
lead of 5 points.
Pre-First Debate Poll on who was expected to
perform better Post-First Debate Poll on who won the debate
100% 100%
80% 80% 72%
60%
56% 60%
40% 32% 40%
19%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Romney Obama Romney Obama
Gallup Tracking before and after the First Debate
100%
80%
60%
45% 50% 47% 47%
40%
20%
0%
9/30-10-3 10/3-10/5
Romney Obama
Source: CNN/ORC and Gallup
Page 4
5. Gallup’s Presidential Tracking has shown upward trend in the weeks following the first debate, and in
their first official numbers following the second debate, Mitt Romney has opened up a 6-point lead
among likely voters. While many considered the second debate to be a draw or close Obama victory,
Romney’s performance has not stopped his momentum.
Gallup Presidential Tracking Following the Presidential Debates
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
49% 49% 49% 49% 49% 50% 51%
48% 48% 48%
50%
48% 47% 48% 47% 47% 47% 47% 47% 46% 45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
October 1-7 October 2-8 October 3-9 October 4-10 October 5-11 October 6-12 October 7-13 October 8-14 October 9-15 October 10-16
Romney Obama
Page 5
7. Out of the 33 Senate seats up for election in 2012, 22 seats are considered likely
wins or safe for Republicans or Democrats. Fifteen seats are likely or safe Democrat
and seven states are likely or safe Republican.
Dark red and dark blue states represent
safe Republican and Democrat seats
respectively. Light red and light blue states
represent likely wins for Republicans and
Democrats respectively.
Page 7
8. There are eleven Senate seats that are currently considered toss-ups .Republicans
hold slim leads in only 4 out of the 11 seats, but different polls for the toss-up seats
show a variety of possible outcomes.
Page 8
9. Arizona has a very tight Senate race currently, with the RCP average at 43% for both
Carmona and Flake. Recent polls have some strong differences though, ranging from
Flake +7 to Carmona +4.
Arizona Senate Race
Tie D+4 D+2 R+3 R+6
100%
90%
80%
43% 44% 40% 41%
45%
70%
60%
12% Carmona
50% 14% 17%
16% 12%
Undecided/Other
40% Flake
30%
43% 43% 43% 47%
20% 40%
10%
0%
RCP Average Behavior Research PPP (D) (Oct. 1-3) HIghGround/Moore Rasmussen Reports
Center (Oct. 4-10) (R)® (Sep. 25-26) (Sep. 25)
Page 9
10. Despite being soundly beaten by 12 points in 2010, Linda McMahon has reemerged in 2012 to
put the traditional blue state of Connecticut in play for Republicans. She trails Murphy by two
points in the RCP average, but individual polls show a range of Murphy+5 to McMahon+1.
Connecticut Senate Race
D+2 D+2 D+5 R+1
100%
90%
80%
48% 46% 47%
51%
70%
60%
50% 5% Murphy
6% 10% 3% Undecided/Other
40%
McMahon
30%
46% 44% 46% 48%
20%
10%
0%
RCP Average Siena (Oct. 4-14) Rasmussen (Oct. 7) Quinnipiac (Sep. 28-
Oct. 2)
Page 10
11. In Florida, one of the most discussed swing states in the election, there is a large
spread among various polls , ranging from +12 for Bill Nelson on the high end to only
Bill Nelson +1 at the other end. The RCP average stands at Nelson+7.
Florida Senate Race
D+7 D+8 D+1 D+5 D+13
100%
90%
80%
48% 45% 46% 47%
52%
70%
60% Nelson
50% 9% Undecided
11% 18% 11%
9% Mack
40%
30%
20% 41% 45% 42%
37% 39%
10%
0%
RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 12-14) Rasmussen Reports (Oct. TBT/Herald/Mason-Dixon NBC/WSJ/Marist (Oct. 7-
11) (Oct. 8-10) 9)
Page 11
12. Recent polling in Indiana has been limited, but even among two polls it’s apparent
that there is variance in the results. Rasmussen shows Mourdock +5, but a
Howey/DePauw poll has Donnelly with a 2-point lead.
Indiana Senate Race
R+5 D+2
100%
90%
80% 42% 40%
70%
60%
Donnelly
11%
50% 22% Undecided/Other
40% Mourdock
30%
47%
20% 38%
10%
0%
Rasmussen Reports (Oct. 10-11) Howey/DePauw (Sep. 19-23)
Page 12
13. Brown’s surprise victory in the 2009 Special Election gave a historically safe Democrat seat to
the Republicans and set up a close contest for 2012. Warren holds a 3-point lead in the RCP
average but the individual polls show a Brown +3 lead in one poll and Warren +6 in another.
Massachusetts Senate Race
D+3 D+2 D+6 R+3 D+5
100%
90%
80%
49% 49% 45%
50% 50%
70%
60%
50% 7% Warren
5% 4% 6% 5%
40% Undecided/Other
Brown
30%
46% 47% 44% 48% 45%
20%
10%
0%
RCP Average Rasmussen PPP (D) (Oct. 9-11) WBUR/MassINC Western NE
Reports (Oct. 10) (Oct. 5-7) University (Sep.
28-Oct. 4)
Page 13
14. What was once considered to be a relatively safe Republican victory in Missouri turned into dead-
heat following Todd Akin’s unfortunate comments regarding “legitimate rape.” Though Akin lost his
lead, the race remains very close, with Akin only trailing by two points in the RCP average.
Missouri Senate Race
D+2 D+6 D+6 D+1 R+4
100%
90%
80% 40%
46% 46% 46%
51%
70%
60%
50% 16% McCaskill
10% 9%
4% 14% Undecided/Other
40%
Akin
30%
44% 45% 45% 44%
20% 40%
10%
0%
RCP Average Rasmussen PPP (D) (Oct. 1-3) WeAskAmerica Gravis Marketing
Reports (Oct. 2) (Sep. 25-27) Sep. 16-17)
Page 14
15. Montana’s Senate race has become one of the closest races in the nation this cycle,
with Rehberg and Tester tied in the RCP average. The differences in the individual
polls range from Tester +2 to Rehberg +3.
Montana Senate Race
Tie Tie D+2 R+3
100%
90%
80%
46% 48% 45% 45%
70%
60%
7% Tester
50% 8% 4% 12%
Undecided/Other
40%
Rehberg
30%
46% 48% 48%
20% 43%
10%
0%
RCP Average Rasmussen Reports PPP (D) (Oct. 8-10) Mason-Dixon (Sep. 17-
(Oct. 14) 19)
Page 15
16. Nevada has become an increasingly favorable seat for the Republican, as Heller
holds a 3-point lead over Berkley in the RCP average and holds a lead in all three of
the recent polls conducted in the race.
Nevada Senate Race
R+3 R+3 R+3 R+3
100%
90%
80% 37%
42% 44% 45%
70%
60%
50% 13% 9% 7% 23% Berkley
Undecided/Other
40%
Heller
30%
45% 47% 48%
20% 40%
10%
0%
RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 8-10) Rasmussen Reports Suffolk/KSNV (Oct. 6-9)
(Oct. 8)
Page 16
17. The Ohio Senate race has looked strong for Sherrod Brown throughout most of the year, but Mandel
has the RCP average down to only a 5-point lead for Brown. The individual polls have stark contrasts,
with Brown holding an 11-point lead in one poll, but only a single point lead in another.
Ohio Senate Race
D+5 D+7 D+1 D+11 D+4 D+2
100%
90%
80% 42%
47% 49% 47% 46%
52%
70%
60% Brown
50% Undecided/Other
11% 7% 20% 10%
9% 7% Mandel
40%
30%
42% 42% 46% 44%
20% 41% 38%
10%
0%
RCP Average PPP (D) (Oct. 12- Rasmussen NBC/WSJ/Marist SurveyUSA (Oct. 5- WeAskAmerica
13) Reports (Oct. 10) (Oct. 7-9) 8) (Oct. 4)
Page 17
18. Virginia’s battle for the Senate has been one of the most followed races in the nation. Currently
Kaine holds a 3-point lead over Allen in RCP average, but the individual polls are very sporadic,
with Kaine holding a 7-point lead in one poll, but trailing Allen by 5 points in another poll.
Virginia Senate Race
D+3 D+1 R+5 D+1 D+7 D+7
100%
90%
80% 41%
48% 48% 47% 51% 51%
70%
60% Kaine
50% 13% Undecided
7% 5% 7%
5% 5%
40% Allen
30%
45% 47% 46% 46% 44% 44%
20%
10%
0%
RCP Average Rasumussen Reports WeAskAmerica (Oct. NBC/WSJ/Marist CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac PPP (D) (Oct. 4-7)
(Oct. 11) 7-9) (Oct. 7-9) (Oct. 4-9)
Page 18
19. Wisconsin’s Senate race has turned into a surprisingly close competition, with
Baldwin only holding a 3-point lead over Thompson in the RCP Average. While
Baldwin leads all of the individual polls, his largest lead is only 4%.
Wisconsin Senate Race
D+3 D+4 D+2 D+3
100%
90%
80%
49% 51% 48% 49%
70%
60%
50% Baldwin
5% 2% 6% 5%
Undecided/Other
40%
Thompson
30%
46% 47% 46% 46%
20%
10%
0%
RCP Average Rasmussen Reports CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac PPP (D) (Oct. 4-6)
(Oct. 9) (Oct. 4-9)
Page 19
21. The Generic Congressional ballot is very tight with only three weeks to go. Currently, Democrats
hold a slight 1-point lead over Republicans, which is much closer than leads held in previous
election years. This suggests that the Republicans will likely retain control of the House.
Previous Election Day Generic
Generic Congressional Ballot Ballots
100% 100%
90% 90%
R +7 D +37 D +29 R +69
80% 80%
70% 70%
60% 60% 54% 53% 52%
49% 47%
50% 45% 50% 46% 45%
43%
40% 40%
44%
30% 30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Republican Democrat
Democrat Republican
Source: Real Clear Politics
Page 21
22. In previous Presidential Election years, House gains have typically been modest, even
in landslide victories. With a very close 2012 Presidential race, there is a small
likelihood that either party makes substantial gains.
Correlation: 0.65
Incumbent President Vote Difference & Seats Gained in Congress
50
1964
40
President’s Political Party Congressional Seat Gain
30 1944
20 1936
1984
1992 2004
10
1940 1972
1956
0
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
-10 1996
-20
-30
-40
1980 -50
-60
Incumbent President Vote Difference
Source: WPA Analysis
Page 22
23. For additional information about this data,
please feel free to contact:
Chris Wilson
Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
CWilson@WPAResearch.com
Page 23
