The presentation was part of the Food Security in India: the Interactions of Climate Change, Economics, Politics and Trade workshop, organized by IFPRI-CUTS on March 11 in New Delhi, India. The project seeks to explore a model for analyzing food security in India through the interactions of climate change, economics, politics and trade.

1. The Impact of Climate Change on India’s
Agricultural Economy
Workshop on Food Security in India (FOODSEC project)
NASC complex, Pusa, New Delhi
11 March 2014
Siwa Msangi & colleagues
(Environ. & Prodn Tech division, IFPRI)

2. In this presentation
I will:
 Discuss some of the key drivers of change in Indian
agriculture to 2030 and beyond
 Describe the impacts of climate change on India’s
agriculture looking at important food sectors
 Discuss some implications for livestock productivity
 Discuss the relevant “shock absorbers” for Indian agriculture
 Describe some possible avenues for adaptation and some
policy conclusions
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3. Page
3
Climate change is part of overall global
socio-economic & environmental change
 Human and natural systems are closely linked
 Much of the environmental change seen in the last
few centuries is due to human activity
 Therefore the key to modifying the rate of
environmental change is to modify human behavior
 This is difficult – requires coordination and policy
interventions
 Climate change has the potential to affect (mostly
negatively) human welfare & well-being
 Therefore mitigation of future climate change and
adaptation to ongoing changes are both

4. Page 4
Climate outcomes are linked to
well-being outcomes
 The climate outcomes than affect economic activities and
human welfare & well-being

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5
Climate change poses a challenge to India’s
agricultural sector both now and in future
Agriculture is already facing climate stresses (from
drought & floods) – even without longer-term changes
 Many regions will continue to rely on rainfed
agriculture as irrigation expansion is very limited
 For some regions – some crops may no longer be
possible; while others may become possible
The stresses from climate go beyond the farm-field
 Has implications for the entire post-harvest chain
 Infrastructure also needs to be upgraded to
withstand future stresses from floods and heat

6. Agriculture’s Role in the Economy
 Per Capita GDP is increasing, but agriculture’s share
of the overall economy has been falling

7. Page 7
Climate Change Impacts in India
(AR4-based results)

8. Page 8
Uncertainties in climate outcomes
 Even for the same socio-economic projection, there
are differences in how different climate models will
project future changes in climate conditions
 Many of the differences come from the way in which
models handle important air-land-water interactions
and how heat is transferred across these
boundaries
 The earth system is complex – therefore we expect
that there are multiple ways in which the same
driver of change will result in future changes

9. Average temperatures could increase substantially
Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)
SRES scenario
differences small
until after 2050
(but GCM
differences big!)

10. Page 10
The socio-economic scenario ‘family’
underlying climate outcomes
Source: IPCC

11. Changes in annual precipitation between 2000-
2050
Change in precip (mm)
CNRM-CM3 GCM CSIRO-MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2

12. Changes in maximum temperature 2000-50
Change in annual
maximum temperature
CNRM-CM3 GCM CSIRO-MK3 GCM
ECHAM5 GCM MIROC3.2

13. Grouping of spatial units within India
North West
North
North East
East
South
Central

14. Production losses/gains for rice

15. Production losses/gains for wheat

16. Production losses/gains for maize

17. Production losses/gains for potato

18. Production losses/gains for pulses
pigeonpea
chickpea

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Capturing the effects on livestock
 A lot of attention has been given to crop impacts, but
not as much on livestock
 There are many crop agronomic models (DSSAT,
DNDC, APSIM,CropSyst,EPIC,LPJmL,etc) – but very
few biophysical models of livestock productivity
(RUMINANT is one example we use)
 Need to engage more with animal scientists – need
to capture impacts of CC on grassland productivity
 Need to capture the differences across livestock
production systems (extensive, intensive, mixed)
In the past, we haven’t captured the effects of climate on
livestock very well – a problem common across studies

20. Breakdown of livestock production across
system classifications
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Share of production across systems in India (% of total prodn)
beef pork lamb poultry eggs milk
Extensive 6% 0% 8% 0% 0% 1%
Mixed crop-
livestock 67% 0% 69% 0% 0% 87%
intensive 16% 18% 4% 9% 25% 3%
other 11% 82% 18% 91% 75% 8%

21. Productivity impacts for bovines in mixed
crop-livestock systems
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loss in liveweight gain due to feed losses distributed across categories

22. Productivity impacts for bovines in mixed
crop-livestock systems
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loss in milk production due to feed losses distributed across categories

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What are the “shock absorbers” of
India’s agricultural economy?
So far we have shown the impacts on productivity –
but there are some was in which such shocks can be
buffered
 Storage and ‘banking’ – this can apply to both
natural and financial resources
• Physical storage can only go one way in time (store
now to use later) – but financial banking can go both
ways (save for later or borrow against the future)
 Exchange mechanisms – especially trade
• This can happen in terms of goods or the resources
that produce them (i.e. water) – helps to mitigate
scarcity over space and improve welfare
 Both of these mechanisms need working institutions

24. Page 24
Illustrating the importance of
groundwater
 In this experiment, we use the IMPACT model
simulate what would happen if the groundwater
availability in northern India (Gujarat, Rajasthan,
Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar)
were to decrease dramatically over 2010-2020
 Essentially halving the water available for irrigation
(since GW supplies ~50% irrigated area)
 Simulated over the corresponding IMPACT basins
(Indus, Ganges, Mahi-Tapti & Luni basins)
 Observe the impact on food production, prices,
consumption and malnutrition in India & the world

25. Ganges
Mahi-Tapti
Luni
Indus
Key Indian basins targeted in scenario

26. Global cereal production changes
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27. Shifts in global cereal net trade to compensate
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28. Increases in global cereal prices
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29. Looking at the demand for water in agriculture
Page 29
Derived per-hectare demand for Water in the Kharif and Rabi Seasons for Hivre Bazaar
(Rs per unit water per hectare)
We fully expect that
the demand for
water is higher in the
drier Rabi season,
compared to the
Kharif when rainfall
is more abundant

30. Page 30
Water demands in two Maharashtra villages
Derived per-hectare demand for Water in the Kharif Season for Hivre Bazaar and
Shivni villages
(Rs per unit water per hectare)
Demand for water is
higher in Hivre Bazaar
compared to Shivni
village, in the Kharif
season – largely due to the
higher value of
agricultural production in
Hivre Bazaar

31. Page 31
Water demands in two Maharashtra villages
Derived per-hectare demand for Water in the Rabi Season for Hivre Bazaar and Shivni
villages
(Rs per unit water per hectare)
Water demand is higher during
the Rabi season for both Hivre
Bazaar and Shivni villages.
Demand in Hivre Bazaar is still
higher thougth difference with
Shivni is smaller

32. Page 32
Illustrating the gains from trade
Where transfers are possible – there could be mutual gains for trade b/w
farms or regions
Equilibrium w/o TCs
Initial point w/o tradeEquilibrium with TCs

33. Need to think about new institutions (e.g.
markets) to deal with climate pressures
As is happening in other climate-stressed parts of the world
(California, Australia) – need to set up new and innovative
arrangements to deal with periodic scarcities
 California has set up a ‘drought water bank’ in the past
 Australia has had markets for water in Murray-Darling
 Dealing with large farms is easier than smaller ones – in the
latter case, the govt or village authorities need to help
 Need to enable existing institutions to function better
 Groundwater is an important buffer – but suffers from open
access problems (could community-based GWM work?)
 Feed markets for livestock are key (esp high-quality
fodder)
 Grain storage needs to be handled better (reduce losses)
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34. A range of adaptation strategies
 At crop-production level:
• Change varieties or crop species and planting dates
• Improve water-use efficiency
 For livestock:
• Preserve diversity in animal genetic resources
• Improve crop residue management (for soil moisture as
well as for feeds)
• Help farmers to rebuild their stocks quickly after shocks
 At resource level
• Enhance recharge where possible
• Encourage collective action to reduce GW overdraft

35. Conclusions
 Climate change will present a challenge to food
security in India through 2050 – despite uncertainty,
we know that the results are significant
 Climate change will reduce yields in many regions by
5-25% -- although there are gains in some
 Need to look at livestock impacts in a better way
 Also need to characterize variability – which can be
even more challenging to deal with
 Besides technological options for climate change
adaptation – also need to look at institutional
innovations needed to strengthen the “shock
absorbers” of India’s agriculture

36. THANK YOU!
See: http://www.ifpri.org/

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37
Extra slides

38. Production losses/gains for coarse grains
Sorghum
Millet

39. Production losses/gains for cotton