Shenggen Fan CAER-IFPRI Annual Conference Guangzhou, China November 9, 2018

1. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Shenggen Fan | Director General
International Food Policy Research Institute
Guangzhou, China | November 9, 2018
Anti-
globalization and
global food and
nutrition security
CAER-IFPRI Annual Conference

2. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Outline
Reshaping food systems is key to address these global
trends
Anti-globalization sentiments add to these challenges
Mega-trends threaten global food security and nutrition

3. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Mega-trends threaten global food security and nutrition
Rapid population growth
and urbanization
Conflict, hunger,
and famine
Climate change

4. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Projected urban share of global population
Urban
68%
20502015
Urban
54%
Source: Ruel et al. 2017
• Nearly 90% of projected urban population increase
is concentrated in Asia and Africa
‒ China, India, and Nigeria alone expected to add 900
million urban residents
• Burdens of malnutrition shifting from rural areas
to urban areas
Source: UN 2018
Rapid urbanization and changing diets are increasing
pressure on food systems
World East Asia Europe
Historical changes in diet composition
(kcal/capita/day)
North America South Asia Africa
Source: FAO 2018

5. Shenggen Fan, November 2018 Source: Campbell et al. 2017
Agriculture is pushing planetary boundaries
Climate change and agriculture affect one another
• Climate change reduces crop yields and food availability
‒ Climate variability associated with approx. 60% of global
yield variations in maize, rice, wheat and soybean
‒ For every 1°C of warming, 3-11% reductions in global
production of wheat rice, maize, and soybean
• Production for livestock and fisheries also impacted
‒ Global decline of livestock by 8-10% expected at ~2°C
warming
‒ Associated economic losses of US$9.7–12.6 billion
‒ Temperature rise by 1-3.5°C above the preindustrial period
estimated to decrease global catch of marine fisheries by
more than 3 million metric tons/per degree of warming
Source: IPCC 2018

6. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
In 2017, conflict and insecurity was the main driver of food insecurity
in 18 countries, affecting 74 million people
Global Report on Food Crises: Main drivers of hunger in 2017
Source: FSIN 2018 Source: FAO 2017
Famine risk: largest food crises in 70 years
Source: FSIN 2018
Conflict and crises drive food insecurity

7. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Threats to investmentsTrade protectionism
Knowledge & data flow
restrictions
Tightening borders
Stalled farm policy reforms Anti-multilateralism
Yet, global integration of national food systems is key
to progress in food security and nutrition
Anti-globalization sentiments add to challenges

8. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Trade protectionism is costly for food systems and beyond
• Trade protectionism has high costs for food security and nutrition
‒ Staple crops heavily taxed on average globally – wheat (12.6%), rice (24%), beef &
veal and poultry (13.5%), dairy (15%)
‒ Higher food prices, reduced incentives and market opportunities for farmers in
developing countries threaten food security and nutrition
• Cutting trade leads to losses in jobs
‒ Raises prices for domestic producers – who become less competitive in global
markets – and less able to sustain jobs at home
• Potential for significant global GDP loss
‒ 10 percentage point increase in trade costs for all partners of Europe, US, and
China estimated to lower world GDP by 1.4% and global trade by 6%
• Negative environmental impact is likely
‒ Intensifying production can pressure local water and fertilizer use in countries with
resource scarcity
‒ E.g.) Expansion of soybean production in China and other countries due to trade
conflict will add to already significant deforestation, especially in South America
Source: OECD 2016, Smaller and Laborde 2018
Water content embedded in
international trade
Source: Laborde 2017

9. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Free flow of goods
is key for food security and nutrition
• Support trade opening with active and strong institutions to guarantee
cooperative behavior and coordination
• Design policies to address challenges or externalities associated with trade
‒ Address inequality and private volatility with safety nets and investment in
human capital
‒ Address environmental impacts with resource management policies
 Mainstream good management into production rather than limiting trade
‒ Address overnutrition with education and other policies targeting consumption
 Can be more effective than banning or limiting trade of calorie-dense foods

10. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is slowing down
• Global FDI flows fell in 2017 by 23% to
US$1.43 trillion despite accelerated growth
in GDP and trade
• Avg. growth in global value chain
participation decreased by 10 percentage
points this decade compared to the last, in
both developed and developing economies
• Some promising outlooks, especially for
developing economies
‒ FDI inflows to SE Asia rose by ~11% from
agriculture, manufacturing, finance and trade driven
by rising investment in and among ASEAN countries
‒ Investment from agribusiness corporations and
information and communication MNEs expected in
developing economies
FDI flows, total and in agriculture (1991-2017)
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
0
4000
8000
12000
16000
20000
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
FDI outflows to Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing FDI inflows to Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Total FDI inflows Total FDI outflows
FDItoagri.,forestry,fishing,US$(Millions)
TotalFDI,US$(Millions)
Source: FAO 2018Source: UNCTAD 2018

11. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
International investment
benefits local food security
• International investment is key to eliminating
hunger
‒ Increases production, improves value chains, develops
infrastructure, etc.
• Agribusiness investments can benefit local food
security—inclusion is key
• Promote public-private partnerships for agro-
infrastructure and inclusive business models
• Encourage investors to follow voluntary
guidelines on governance of tenure of land,
fisheries, and forests
Product and market focus of
investors in agriculture
Source: UNCTAD and World Bank

12. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Migration, conflict, and food insecurity are linked
• Conflict, forced migration, and food
insecurity can feed into each other,
creating a vicious circle
• Conflict may be intensified by movements
of people driven by food insecurity and
poor access to natural resources
• People from countries or areas with high
levels of undernourishment are more
likely to become refugees
‒ 1% increase of food insecurity associated with
nearly 2% greater outflow of refugees
International migration and refugee population
(millions)
Source: WFP 2017, FAO and IFPRI 2017

13. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
International migration
plays a major role in food security
• Voluntary migration can improve food security for
migrants and families
‒ Increases incomes and reduces pressure on
natural resources
‒ But migration involves upfront costs that can
exclude the poor
• Despite concerns, refugee camps can stimulate
incomes and entrepreneurship in local
communities
• Improve seasonal migration mechanisms and
innovative financial products to facilitate
migration
• Support ag. and rural development to help
populations recover from and prevent conflict
Top 20 destinations (left) and origins (right) of
international migrants in 2015 (millions)
Source: De Brauw and Ambler 2018, IOM 2018

14. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Open access knowledge and data
drive improved performance in food systems
• Accessible data and evidence is critical for
decision making in food systems, from farm to
consumers
• Open data can enhance accountability of all
actors in food systems, including government
• Data quality and ease of use are essential for
open access to succeed
• Build open data initiatives, enhance knowledge
transfer efficiency, and empower citizens
through capacity building
IFPRI dataset downloads
Source: Yerramareddy and Babu 2018

15. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Addressing radical changes
is central for progress in the global food system
• Encourage an open, efficient, and fair trading system
• Support rural development to break the vicious cycle of conflict, food insecurity, and
forced migration
• Invest more in research and innovation for food systems
• Enhance evidence-based policy making
• Promote cooperation and mutual learning
• Leverage new opportunities in emerging technologies and knowledge-sharing
Reshaping agri-food systems will be key for inclusivity and to ensure
trade, investment, and migration makes everyone better off

16. Shenggen Fan, November 2018
Upcoming global learning event bringing
together decision makers, practitioners,
researchers, and other stakeholders
Break the silos to accelerate progress