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Big picture overview of challenges and opportunities for achieving food security in Asia


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“Big picture overview of challenges and opportunities for achieving food security in Asia”, presented by Sohail Malik, Chairman, Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd., Islamabad, Pakistan and Visiting Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI at the ReSAKSS-Asia Conference, Nov 14-16, 2011, in Kathmandu, Nepal.

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Big picture overview of challenges and opportunities for achieving food security in Asia

  1. 1. Overview of Challenges and Opportunities for Achieving Food Security in Asia – the Big Picture Keynote Address Sohail Jehangir Malik Chairman, Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd. Pakistan KNOWLEDGE, TOOLS AND LESSONS FOR INFORMING THE DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION OF FOOD SECURITY STRATEGIES IN ASIA A TECHNICAL WORKSHOP AND CONFERENCE Kathmandu, Nepal November 14, 2011
  2. 2. Broad Lessons from Asia’s Experience • Asia’s dramatic poverty reduction in the past was driven by pro-poor economic growth especially in China, India and Southeast Asia. • Successful Green Revolution, led by high- yielding rice varieties (and wheat in South Asia and north China); – Rice, essentially a small holder crop played a dominant role in much of East and Southeast Asia (more than half the dietary intake even as diets begin to diversify as incomes increase) • Massive investments in rural infrastructure, including irrigation; and • The ready availability of fertilizer.
  3. 3. The region’s agriculture supplied enough food to satisfy demand and reduce food insecurity • Agriculture growth continues to be the critical challenge • Continued technological change and yield growth needed – Major improvements in land and water use efficiencies • However,…………………
  4. 4. attention to Agriculture in Asia is declining ……..
  5. 5. And this is also reflected in flows of aid to agriculture from major aid donors
  6. 6. Overall Research and Development is a low priority 0.90 0.77 0.49 0.13 0.14 0.25 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 China India Malaysia Pakistan Sri Lanka Thailand As%ofGDP 2000
  7. 7. Four Elements of Food security Food availability - The availability of sufficient quantities of food of appropriate quality, supplied through domestic production or imports, including food aid. Food access - Access by individuals to adequate resources - entitlements -- for acquiring appropriate foods for a nutritious diet. Utilization - Utilization of food through adequate diet, clean water, sanitation and health care to reach a state of nutritional well-being where all physiological needs are met. Stability - To be food secure, a population, household or individual must have access to adequate food at all times. Stability is thus needed in both availability and access.
  8. 8. Food Security in the Region is Under Stress from • Population growth and demographic changes • Changes in food preferences with rising incomes • Instability in International Markets - High and volatile prices • Land degradation and water constraints • Climate change and natural disasters
  9. 9. Land and soil degradation
  10. 10. Water scarcity
  11. 11. Asia: The most prone region to natural disasters 1975-2009
  12. 12. Asia: The Impact of Natural Disasters 2009
  13. 13. Asia: Intensity and type of Disaster varies across sub- regions of Asia
  14. 14. Global Food Crises • On the supply side – Weather-related production shortfalls – Stock levels depletion as demand outstrips supply – Increasing fuel costs that have raised the cost of agricultural production • On the demand side – Biofuels and agricultural commodities – Changing structure of household demand. • Other relevant factors – Operations on financial markets: – Short-term policy actions and exchange rate swings
  15. 15. The Current Global Economic Crisis came on top of the Food Price Crisis. This Implies…………………… ………….. • Less capital for agriculture now and in the future • Higher debt burden for small farmers who already invested in agriculture expansion • Policy attention further diverted away from agriculture leading to lower public investment • Reduced employment and wages of unskilled workers Source: von Braun 2009.
  16. 16. Agriculture and Nutrition • Agriculture has succeeded in massively increasing the amount of staple grains produced, but the world still faces serious challenges related to nutrition: • The number of hungry people rose from 873 million in 2004–06 to 925 million in 2010. • About 115 million children are underweight, and 186 million under age five are stunted. • Nearly half of the world’s preschool-age children suffer from anemia, and one-third are deficient in vitamin A. • Under-nutrition is the underlying cause of nearly one in three deaths from all diseases in preschool-age children. • 1.7 billion people are overweight, and 500 million of them are obese.
  17. 17. Two billion+ suffer from micronutrient deficiencies Iron deficiency anemia • Africa and South Asia have the highest prevalence. • In some parts of India, 90 percent of girls suffer from this deficiency. Vitamin A deficiency • 163 million are vitamin A deficient in developing countries. • 44.4 percent of children in South Asia alone suffer from this deficiency. Iodine deficiency • 1.7 billion people worldwide are affected by iodine deficiency, and 1.3 billion of them are in Asia. Source: UNSCN 6th Report & Bharati et al 2009
  18. 18. 26 countries have serious/alarming levels of hunger (2011 GHI) GHI components: •Proportion of undernourished •Prevalence of underweight in children •Under-five mortality rate
  19. 19. The Decline in Money-metric Poverty in Asia is not reflected in comparable improvement in child malnutrition – And there is great heterogeneity of experiences across regions Population below $1 a day per capita (ave. exp) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 1990-1994 1995-1999 2000-2004 2005-2010 East & North-East Asia South-East Asia South & South-West Asia North & Central Asia Percentage of children under 5 who are underweight 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Cambodia China Indonesia Korea,Dem.Rep. LaoPDR Malaysia Mongolia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Timor-Leste Vietnam Afghanistan Bangladesh India Maldives Nepal Pakistan SriLanka Percent 1993-07 2002-06 Percent
  20. 20. Women’s Status in Society - an important determinant of food security and nutritional security is lowest in South Asia
  21. 21. Agriculture and health – serious risks to both food producers and food consumers need to be addressed • Agriculture is one of the most hazardous of occupations worldwide. • Health risks include – microbial and other pollutants from wastewater irrigation, – exposure to zoonotic pathogens and chemicals like pesticides and herbicides, – accidents and exposure to extreme weather events or patterns. • Three-quarters of emerging diseases are zoonotic in origin. • In developing countries, 4.5 billion people are chronically exposed to aflatoxin, a highly carcinogenic natural toxin that is thought to affect 25 percent of the world’s food crops.
  22. 22. Food Security and Climate Change • Climate change affects food production – Directly: changes in agro-ecological conditions – Indirectly: changes in econ growth and distribution of incomes, thus demand for agricultural produce • Climate change offsets some of the benefits of income growth. • Broad-based economic development is central to improvements in human well-being, including sustainable food security and resilience to climate change. • International trade plays an essential role in compensating for various climate change affects • Properly targeted agricultural productivity investments can mitigate the impacts of climate change and enhance sustainable food security. * Exceprted from Nelson, Rosegrant, Palazzo et al. 2010. "Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options“ IFPRI, Washington DC.
  23. 23. 1. Understanding the Characteristics of the RNFE 2. Understanding Rural dynamics: what drives change in the RNFE? Spatial and Sectoral Dynamics? – Structural transformation – Agricultural growth linkages • Production, consumption, labor market, investment and spatial – Other motors of RNF growth • technology, export markets, foreign investment and globalization Using the RNFE as an engine of pro-poor growth Attention is only now being paid to Understanding the role of Rural Non-farm Economy (RNFE) for Poverty Reduction and Food Security
  24. 24. Exciting Opportunities • Learning from the diversity of Experience – Replicating and Up-scaling what we know works • Avoiding what we does not work • Using this knowledge, and the tools and lessons for informing the design and implementation of Food Security Strategies
  25. 25. Exciting Opportunities The Millions Fed Initiative – Learning from Success
  26. 26. Business as Usual is Not Enough Fan (2010)
  27. 27. Fill Knowledge Gaps Minimize Harm Scale Up Innovative Solutions Create a Cooperative Environment Way Forward from the IFPRI 2020 Conference: The Building Blocks
  28. 28. (1) Fill the Knowledge Gaps Learn how different patterns of agric. growth affect nutrition • More program evaluation to build up a stronger evidence base about impacts of different strategies and scenarios. Invest in research, evaluation, education systems that are cross- sectoral – Universities should encourage multi-disciplinary approaches Fill gap in governance knowledge at global, national, and community levels – Maximize synergies using policies, regulations and other tools of governance. –Promote leadership that galvanizes cross-sectoral collaboration.
  29. 29. (2) Do No Harm Mitigate health risks posed by agriculture along the value chain • Better monitoring and assessment of agric. development to identify health hazards and risks. • Improve production and processing technologies, cost-effective, risk- based technologies that are accessible to small farm holders. Design health and nutrition interventions that contribute to productivity of agricultural labor – Examples: Home-based gardens, HIV/AIDS interventions Examine downstream effects of subsidies for production or consumption on consumers’ nutrition and health
  30. 30. (3) Seek Out and Scale Up Innovative Solutions Scale up successful interventions – Learn from case studies at country and project level Design agriculture, nutrition and health programs with cross- sectoral benefits Incorporate nutrition into value chain for food production – Look for opportunities across entire value chain, from food production to post-harvest processing Use all available levers for change (i.e. economic, social, science and technology, governance)
  31. 31. (4) Create An Environment In Which Cooperation Can Thrive Focus on cross-sectoral partnerships • Eliminate “jargon,” develop a common language Develop mutual accountability mechanisms – Encourage transparency and openness, develop clear guidelines for stakeholder responsibility and resource allocation Correct market failures – Promote policies that recognize true value- both positive and negative- of different foods, health services and ag. practices. Use communication and advocacy to bring about change
  32. 32. “DO IT, TRY IT, FIX IT”: NEXT STEPS  Accelerate research to better shape programs and policies  Raise awareness and interest through communication strategies  Reach out to potential partners, and build links and networks
  33. 33. Young Entrepreneurs of Pakistan Program Bringing Umeed (hope) – Linking Youth Groups across regions in Pakistan with each other and with national and international Knowledge to generate incomes and employment for food security • Using the existing IT structure and other infrastructure of district level universities across the country for communications, outreach and commerce • Coordinated and Funded by the Government through a large national social fund - PPAF • Mobilizing Youth Groups across different regions into young entrepreneurs • Organizing production, trade and services arising out of agriculture according to the comparative advantage of the region and the youth group • Facilitating access to resources, technology and know how • Linking groups with each other for trade and commerce conditional on social responsibility. • M&E for accountability and lesson learning to ensure replicability and scalability An initiative under the IFPRI IDS USAID Pakistan Strategy Support Program
  34. 34. Thank you so much for your Attention