“Drought Monitoring and Management in the Horn of Africa” by Tsegaye Tadesse at the 2023 Water for Food Global Conference. A recording of the presentation can be found on the conference playlist: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSBeKOIXsg3JNyPowwJj6NDSpx4vlnCYj.

1. Drought Monitoring and Management
in the Horn of Africa
Some perspectives on the current drought management in
southern Ethiopia and northern Kenya
Tsegaye Tadesse, Ph.D.
Research Professor of Applied Climatology and Remote Sensing
Geospatial Coordinator
National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln

2. Brief History of Drought and Its Impact
in the Greater Horn of Africa
• 44% (about 100 million people) live in areas prone to extreme food
shortages and recurrent drought
• Horn of African countries were threatened by famine at least once each
decade (more frequent in recent years)
• Examples:
• 18 million people were suffering from food shortages during the drought’s peak in
early 2006
• The 2010-11 drought affected more than 13 million people
• About 36.4 million people are affected by the most prolonged and severe drought in
recent history in the last months of 2022,
• including 24.1 million in Ethiopia, 7.8 million in Somalia and 4.5 million in Kenya.

3. Recent Droughts in Africa: Key Observations
Figure 3. Report on the 2016 “El Niño-related”
food security impact in the world. Over 50% of the
people affected are in Africa. Source: WFP, 2016.
The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the
World 2022. Source: FAO

4. Future Droughts in Africa
• Projections of an increased frequency and severity of drought conditions provide further cause for
concern (IPCC,2014; IPCC 2023).
• Specifically, soil moisture drying is most prominent in the Mediterranean and southern Africa
Figure 5. Observed and projected changes in annual average (a) temperature and (b) precipitation
maps of CMIP5 multi-model results for the scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in 2081–2100.
In the future, the impacts of climate
change, as well as growing populations
and declining per capita agricultural
capacity, are expected to further
threaten food security, increase
environmental degradation, and
enhance the risk of
outbreaks/spreading of plant and
animal diseases.
IPCC 2023

5. Impacts of Global Climate Change
Increased frequency of extreme weather events

6. The Cycle of Disaster Management
“Governments should prepare for droughts
by developing and implementing strategies
and plans that reduce associated impacts.”
-Wilhite and Glantz, 1985
Proactive
Reactive
Risk management increases coping capacity, builds resilience
Prof. Don Wilhite
We need a paradigm shift from Reactive/Crisis to
Proactive/Risk management.

7. Mapping out a strategy!

8. Building a Strategy for Africa
https://www.africandroughtconference.com/
Adaption of “The Windhoek Declaration for Enhancing
Resilience to Drought in Africa” on 19 August 2016.

9. The Three Pillars of Integrated Drought Risk Management
• The three key elements (also known as the “three pillars”) of
a drought preparedness plan include:
1. Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems;
2. Drought Vulnerability and Impact Assessment; and
3. Drought Mitigation and Response. -Wilhite et al, 2011
Drought Toolbox:
https://www.unccd.int/land-and-
life/drought/toolbox

10. Examples of Drought Management and
Related National Level Efforts in Africa
Ethiopia
• In 1973, an ad-hoc response to the crisis resulted in the formation of the
Relief & Rehabilitation Commission (RRC)
• In 1995 evolved into the Disaster Prevention and Preparedness
Commission (DPPC).
• In 2004, the DPPC evolved to the formation of the Disaster Prevention and
Preparedness Agency (DPPA) and Food Security Coordination Bureau
(FSCB), with a revised mandate for DPPA to focus on emergency
response and FSCB to focus on responding to chronic food insecurity.
• In 2007-08, the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector
(DRMFSS) under the Ministry of Agriculture was established with a
primary emphasis on proactive disaster risk management instead of
reactive crises management.
• In 2013, Ethiopia published a “National Policy and Strategy on Disaster
Risk Management (NPSDRM).
• The policy includes planning for emergency response as well as development of
an integrated risk management facility, with contingency funds and a weather-
indexed insurance scheme.
• The Ethiopian Disaster Risk Management Commission
(EDRMC) was established in 2015 by the Council of Ministers
through Regulation No. 363/2015 and was relocated in late 2021
to report directly to the Prime Minister
• The Disaster Risk Management Commission (DRMC) oversees all
disasters including drought in the country accountable to the prime
minister.
Source: http://www.infoplease.com/atlas/country/ethiopia.html

11. https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/midterm-review-implementation-
sendai-framework-disaster-risk-reduction-2015-2030-ethiopian-voluntary-
national-report-september-2022
Source:
Organizational structure of Ethiopian
Disaster Risk Management Commission

12. Examples of Drought Management and Related
Efforts in Africa
Kenya
• Since 1985, Kenya designed of a drought contingency planning system in Turkana,
Kenya.
• In 1992, the system was gradually expanded by the Emergency Drought Recovery
Project and its successor, the Arid Lands Resource Management Project (ALRMP).
• Then, Kenya established a “Country Programming Framework” for ending recurrent
drought emergencies (EDE).
• The framework combines the efforts of the local communities, the Government of
Kenya, civil society, the private sector, states in the Horn of Africa, and
development partners.
• In 2016, the Kenyan government established the National Drought Management
Authority (NDMA).
• NDMA is mandated to establish mechanisms that ensure that drought does not result in
emergencies and that the impacts of climate change are sufficiently mitigated.
• The NDMA provides a platform for long-term planning and action, as well as a
mechanism for coordination across government and with all other stakeholders.
Source: http://studentevents.tumblr.com/post/13056056405/my-country-kenya
NDMA visiting scientists at the NDMC in 2010

13. Rainfall Anomaly in
Drought Years:
Horn of Africa

14. Source: NASA - The most severe
drought in 70 years of record
keeping threatens the Horn of
Africa with famine.
Worst Drought on Record Parches Horn of Africa
March - September 2022 October - December 2022

15. Eastern Africa Regional Drought Crisis
(2022-2023)
• An estimated 24.1 million people in
Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia need
humanitarian assistance because of
drought triggered by fourth consecutive
failed rainy seasons.
• “In Ethiopia, the lack of water and grazing
is driving households to migrate alongside
their livestock in search of water, pasture,
and food.”
• An estimated 23–26 million people faced
acute food insecurity by February 2023 in
Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia… facing
Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) food insecurity
outcomes.
Source:
OCHA, 21 September 2022
Source: https://www.acaps.org/country/ethiopia/crisis/eastern-africa-regional-drought-crisis
Assessment Capacities Project (ACAPS)

16. 2022 GLOBAL HUNGER INDEX BY SEVERITY
Source:
https://www.globalhungerindex.org/

17. Ethiopia –National Drought Crisis (2022-23)
Source: FEWS NET August 2022
“The world's worst acute food insecurity emergency of
2022 is occurring over the Horn of Africa.”
“Severe levels of acute food insecurity are expected to persist in
southern and southeastern areas afflicted by a multi-year historic
drought and in conflict-affected northern areas, where food access
remains limited for millions of households.”
Source: FEWSNET January 2023

18. BUILDING PROACTIVE AND DROUGHT RESILIENT AFRICA
• The Challenge
• Most governments have not given a proper priority to drought risk management—instead, relying on the
crisis management approach
• Lack of full commitment in several African countries is a big challenge to progress in building drought risk management at
national, regional, and continental levels.
• Social and political issues related to race, class, and gender need to be addressed to build proactive and
drought-resilient communities.
• Even though progress has been made, the role of women in drought risk management is limited in Africa.
• Severe drought, together with complex socioeconomic and political factors, has been a growing
motivation for migration in many parts of Africa.
• COP21 in Paris adopted a nonbinding contract to protect those displaced by natural disasters including droughts (MPI,
2015)
• The lack of financial resources … Capacity building
• Projections of an increased frequency and severity of drought conditions provide further cause for
concern.
• Even though there are some progress to adopt risk management policy, the implementation of the policy
and structure is not yet efficient resulting loss of life and other several damages.

19. Final Thoughts
• The current experience in the Horn of Africa countries indicates that most
governments have not yet given a proper priority in implementing drought risk
management and continue to rely on the crisis management approach.
• This was evident by the severe levels of acute food insecurity in the region, loss
of several livestock, and displacements in the recent 2022-2023 drought.
• The necessary mechanisms for implementation of a strategic framework or
drought plan include:
• Strong political will and leadership,
• An initial investment in building greater institutional capacity,
• Creating a collaborative environment that supports and encourages coordination within
and between national institutes, and all levels of government and the private sector within
each country,
• Needs an engaged and supportive citizens and stakeholders, and
• Involves an engaged research community, including higher education institutions and
strong outreach and media programs.
• In summary, the recurrent droughts in the Horn of Africa, exacerbated by
climate change, requires more effective drought planning and the development
and implementation of appropriate mitigation strategies to reduce its impacts.
Source: http://mindforums.com/the-eight-millennium-
development-goals-cont-step-one
African Leadership

20. Thank You!
Tsegaye Tadesse, Ph.D.
Research Professor of Applied Climatology
and Remote Sensing
Geospatial Coordinator
National Drought Mitigation Center,
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Email: ttadesse2@unl.edu