1. Market Outlook
India Research
July 27, 2010
Dealer’s Diary Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
The key benchmark indices suffered losses to hit fresh intraday lows as
BSE Sensex -0.6% (110.9) 18,020
European stocks moved off highs as US index futures fell. The market hovered
Nifty -0.6% (30.5) 5,419
around the negative zone near the flat line in early trade, shedding initial gains.
MID CAP -1.0% (71.7) 7,362
Stocks slided lower in morning trade and the market was range bound in early
SMALL CAP -0.8% (76.1) 9,363
afternoon trade. The market hit a fresh intraday low in mid-afternoon trade and
the trend prevailed in late trade. The Sensex and Nifty were down by 0.6% BSE HC -0.1% (3.0) 5,626
each. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices also ended the trade in red, down by BSE PSU -0.8% (72.4) 9,454
1.0% and 0.8%, respectively. Among the front liners, Bharti Airtel, TCS, Infosys, BANKEX -0.8% (91.1) 11,400
HDFC Bank and ITC gained between 1–2%, while Maruti Suzuki, Hero Honda, AUTO -3.3% (273.6) 8,140
Jaiprakash Associates, SBI and DLF lost between 3–12%. Among mid caps, METAL -0.3% (50.9) 15,465
Lakshmi Machines Works, MVL, IFCI, KGN Industries and S.Kumar Nation OIL & GAS -0.7% (76.3) 10,458
gained between 3–5%, while Indian Bank, United Breweries Holdings, REI Agro, BSE IT 0.6% 32.5 5,506
Jubilant Foodworks and Whirlpool were down by 5–12%. Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Markets Today Dow Jones 1.0% 100.8 10,525
NASDAQ 1.2% 27.0 2,296
The trend deciding level for the day is 18069/5431 levels. If NIFTY trades
above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a FTSE 0.7% 38.5 5,351
further rally up to 18145–18270/5454– 5488 levels. However, if NIFTY trades Nikkei 0.8% 72.7 9,504
below 18069/5431 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct Hang Seng 0.1% 24.6 20,840
up to 17945 – 17869/5396 – 5374 levels. Straits Times -0.2% (6.5) 2,967
Indices S2 S1 R1 R2 Shanghai Com 0.7% 16.7 2,589
SENSEX 17,869 17,945 18,145 18,270
NIFTY 5,374 5,396 5,454 5,488 Indian ADRs Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)
Infosys 0.8% 0.5 $60.7
News Analysis Wipro 1.2% 0.2 $13.4
Dabur acquires Turkish Hobi Group for US $69mn Satyam 1.4% 0.1 $5.1
ICICI Bank 0.1% 0.0 $39.4
Result Reviews: Bharat Forge, Bluestar, Dabur, Dena Bank, Gateway
HDFC Bank 0.5% 0.8 $153.5
Distriparks, GlaxoSmithKline Pharma, NTPC, Sterlite, Taj GVK, Union Bank
of India, United Phosphorus
Result Previews: Ashok Leyland, Asian Paints, Cadila Healthcare, Ceat, CIL, Advances / Declines BSE NSE
HUL, IRB, JK Lakshmi Cement, L&T, RIL, Titan Industries Advances 1,085 389
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page. Declines 1,854 958
Unchanged 73 31
Net Inflows (July 23, 2010)
Rs cr Purch Sales Net MTD YTD
Volumes (Rs cr)
FII 3,131 2,286 845 10,972 41,255
BSE 3,722
MFs 520 661 (140) (2,417) (10,635)
NSE 11,856
FII Derivatives (July 23, 2010)
Open
Rs cr Purch Sales Net
Interest
Index Futures 4,430 4,416 14 16,426
Stock Futures 5,682 5,959 (277) 35,160
Gainers / Losers
Gainers Losers
Price Price Chg
Company Chg (%) Company
(Rs) (Rs) (%)
IFCI 62 3.8 Maruti Suzuki 1,191 (12.3)
Lupin 1,967 3.6 Indian Bank 222 (11.8)
Exide Inds 137 2.5 Hero Honda 1,812 (7.5)
Bajaj Auto 2,527 2.3 Engineers India 317 (6.2) 1
LIC Housing Fin 1,059 2.3 JP Associates 121 (5.8)
Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report Sebi Registration No: INB 010996539
2. Market Outlook | India Research
Dabur acquires Turkish Hobi Group for US$69mn
Dabur India, through its wholly owned subsidiary Dabur International, has entered into an
agreement to acquire 100% stake in Hobi group of firms, a Turkish personal care products
firm for a consideration of US$69mn at 2.6x sales and 15x EBITDA based on CY2009
financials of a turnover of US$27mn and an EBITDA of ~4.6mn (17% OPM). Hobi group
of firms include 3 companies – 1) Hobi Kozmetik (core products/distribution arm), 2) Zeki
Plastik (captive packaging company and 3) Ra Pazarlama (sales and marketing company).
The transaction is likely to be completed in 3QFY2011 post regulatory formalities. The
current management will continue to run the operations. Set up in 1974, Hobi Kozmetik is
a leading personal care products company in Turkey and markets a wide range of hair
care (gels, conditioners, shampoos and styling products) and skin care products (skin care,
liquid soaps and wet wipes) under Hobby and New Era brands. The current acquisition
provides Dabur an entry into attractive new market like Turkey via complementary product
portfolio. The management has stated that current brand portfolio of Hobi is under-
leveraged in Turkey and there exists scope for further expansion in hair care and skin care.
Moreover, there exist synergistic benefits in terms of utilising sales & distribution network of
Hobi to market Dabur products in Turkey and extend Hobi brands into other IBD markets
like MENA, Africa and South Africa.
We believe the acquisition is little expensive (unlike recent acquisitions in FMCG space
done at ~2x sales). Dabur is well placed to fund the acquisition via mix of internal
accruals and debt. Assuming a 50:50 mix, the deal is likely to be EPS neutral. We maintain
our Reduce rating on the stock.
Result Reviews-1QFY2011
Bharat Forge
Bharat Forge (BFL) registered 76% yoy growth in net sales to Rs630cr (Rs359cr) for
1QFY2011. Sales growth was 9% above our estimates. Growth was largely aided by 83%
yoy increase in domestic revenue and about 63% yoy growth in export sales. On the
operating front, EBITDA margin expanded by 431bp to 25.2%, ahead of our expectations.
Net profit for the quarter also came in above our expectations at Rs59cr, largely because
of better-than-expected operating performance on a standalone basis. On a consolidated
basis, performance was marginally above our expectations with top-line growth of 66%
yoy to Rs1,013cr (Rs609cr). Bottom line stood at Rs62cr (net loss of Rs46cr in 1QFY2010),
largely on account of a sharp turnaround in overseas operations. EBITDA margins, on a
consolidated basis, improved by almost 860bp yoy to 18.2% (9.6% in 1QFY2010) in
1QFY2011. Overall, turnaround of overseas subsidiaries supported a strong recovery at
consolidated levels. Owing to better-than-expected 1QFY2011 performance, we will be
revising our estimates upwards by 5–6%. The stock rating is under review.
Blue Star
Blue Star reported its results. Net sales, at Rs664.8cr (Rs531.0cr), were slightly ahead of
our estimates. However, OPM declined by 281bp yoy to 9.2%(12.0%), resulting in a 10%
decline in operating profits. The reason for a lower-than-expected OPM was rise in input
costs and change in the revenue mix. Consequently, net profit declined 10% yoy to
Rs37.2cr (Rs41.2cr). On the positive side, the carry forward order book increased to
Rs1976cr (Rs1717cr), an increase of nearly 15%. The company has also announced a
consideration of Rs80cr for the acquisition of DS Gupta Construction. Currently, the stock
is under review and we will revise our numbers post the conference call.
July 27, 2010 2
3. Market Outlook | India Research
Dabur
Dabur posted healthy growth in the top line by 23% yoy to Rs917cr (Rs743cr) on a
consolidated basis led by the highest-ever volume growth of 19.5% yoy. Domestic business
kicked in about 17% growth, out of which around 15.5% was volume. International
business, in rupee terms, posted growth of 29% yoy (37–38% in constant currency terms,
strengthening of the rupee led to lower growth). In terms of categories, CCD recorded its
highest-ever growth of 19% yoy (largely volume driven), aided by strong 43% yoy growth
in health supplements, 31% yoy growth in homecare and 20% yoy growth in oral care.
Dabur’s reported earnings for the quarter on a consolidated basis registered healthy
growth of 17% yoy to Rs917cr (Rs743cr), lower than our estimates due to margin
contraction and higher tax rate (up 238bp yoy). On the operating front, Dabur India
delivered a margin contraction of 100bp yoy to 14.9% (15.9%) resulting into modest
growth of 16% yoy in EBITDA to Rs137cr (Rs118cr). While gross margins were stable
despite strong volume growth (down 10bp yoy), higher ad spends (up 113bp yoy) led to
margin contraction. Management has indicated that the company is seeing softening of
prices in key commodities such as edible oils and the price increases would further
increase the headroom for growth.
Dabur announced the acquisition of Hobi Group (Turkish firm), present in personal
products category, for an all cash deal of US $69mn (to be completed in 3QFY2011). It
also announced a bonus issue of 1:1. We maintain Reduce on the stock (the target price is
under review).
Dena Bank
Dena Bank has announced its results, wherein it has registered net profit growth of 20.7%
on a yoy basis to Rs139cr, which is better than our estimate of Rs120cr mainly on account
of better-than-expected growth in NII. Non-interest income, however, was below
expectations by 15%. Steady operating performance with asset quality pressure was the key
highlight of the result. NII increased by robust 43.9% yoy and 10.5% qoq to Rs360cr. Non-
interest income stood at Rs1.7cr, down 31.1% yoy and 38.8% on a sequential basis.
Operating costs increased 12.0% yoy and 3.7% qoq to Rs229cr. The cost-to-income ratio
stood at 49.0%, higher with its eight-quarter average of 51.5%. The bank’s asset quality
witnessed pressure during the quarter. Gross NPAs increased by 24.7% sequentially to
Rs801cr, while net NPAs stood at Rs561cr compared to Rs428cr (a rise of 31.2%) in
4QFY2010. The bank’s gross and net NPA ratio stood at 2.1% (1.8% in 4QFY2010) and
1.5% (1.2% in 4QFY2010), respectively. The bank’s CAR increased by 83bp to 11.8% as
compared to 12.7% in 4QFY2010.
We would revisit our earnings estimates and target price post our interaction with the
bank’s management. At the CMP, the stock is trading at attractive valuations of 4.6x
FY2012E EPS of Rs21.9 and 0.8x FY2012E adjusted book value of Rs120.6. We have an
Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of Rs115.
July 27, 2010 3
4. Market Outlook | India Research
Gateway Distriparks
Gateway Distriparks (GDL) reported subdued revenue growth of 3.8% yoy to Rs129cr,
against our estimates of Rs143cr on account of lower volumes in its Punjab Conware CFS.
Revenue from Mumbai CFS declined by 2.4% yoy to Rs38cr as capacity utilisation at
Punjab Conware facility (JNPT) is yet to get fully operational due to the fire at CFS in
February 2010. Other CFS reported strong volume growth of 29.6% to 24,821 TEU on
account of low base and recovery in Exim trade. However, realisations in other CFS fell by
13.0% yoy on account of lower ground rent and increasing competition. Consequently,
total revenue from CFS was flat yoy at Rs475cr. GDL reported 17.2% yoy volume growth in
the rail segment led by addition of new rakes and improving capacity utilisation. However,
there has been a delay in commissioning of three additional rakes in 1QFY2011, which
limited volume growth in the current quarter.
GDL reported subdued revenue growth of 2.9% yoy on account of lower realisations (down
12.2% yoy) as it earned lower ground rent at Garhi ICD and change in the product mix.
Higher depreciation and interest expenses dragged losses to Rs42.7cr (up 14.8% yoy) in
1QFY2011, much higher than our expectations. There has also been a delay in Blackstone
funding, which will delay the company’s rail expansion plan.
EBITDA margin came in at 23.9% (down 263bp yoy) on account of lower ground rent
across and increasing competition in CFS. Consequently, GDL’s reported PAT declined by
15.5% yoy to Rs14cr against our estimate of Rs19cr.
We have downgraded our EPS estimates by 18.9% and 21.4% in FY2011E and FY2012E,
respectively, on account of delay in Blackstone funding and increasing competition in the
CFS business. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 11.8x FY2012E EPS and 1.8x P/BV
FY2012E. Hence, we have downgraded the stock from Buy to Accumulate with a revised
target price of Rs123.
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma
GlaxoSmithKline Pharma (Glaxo) reported its 2QCY2010 results, which were below our
expectations. Net sales came in at Rs497.9cr (Rs457.4cr), which were up by mere 9% as
the company faced supply constraints on the vaccine front. Glaxo reported OPM of 36.5%
(35.6%), which was higher than our estimates on the back of lower raw-material cost.
However, net profit came in flat at Rs129.0cr (Rs124.4cr), impacted by lower other
income. The stock is currently trading at 31.7x CY2010E and 28.0x CY2011E earnings.
We recommend Sell with a target price of Rs1,700.
NTPC
NTPC posted 7.8% yoy growth in net sales to Rs12,945cr, aided by higher sales volume
and improvement in realisations. The company had started commercial operations of the
500MW Unit-7 of Kahalgoan plant in 4QFY2010, which contributed to its sales volume
during 1QFY2011. Volume growth was also boosted by higher PLF of gas-based plants
due to increased availability of gas from KG-D6 basin. On the operating front, OPM for
the quarter fell by 134bp yoy to 25.1% on account of higher fuel and employee expenses,
which grew by 12.4% and 15.8%, respectively, on a yoy basis. On the bottom-line front,
the company’s net profit declined by 16% yoy to Rs1,842cr. The stock is currently trading
at 2.1x FY2012E book value, we maintain an Accumulate rating on the stock with a target
price of Rs230.
July 27, 2010 4
5. Market Outlook | India Research
Sterlite
Sterlite's net revenue grew by 30.6% yoy to Rs5,925cr during the quarter, aided by higher
metal prices. While the company sold 480mn units of merchant power (287mn units in
1QFY2010) due to the closure of BALCO 1 plant, average realisations were lower at
Rs4.98/unit (Rs5.43/unit in 1QFY2010). Despite being negatively affected by higher staff
cost, EBITDA margin expanded by 292bp yoy to 24.5%. Consequently, EBITDA grew by
48.3% yoy to Rs1,452cr. While other income increased by 64.6% yoy to Rs692cr and
interest expenses increased by 97.8% yoy to Rs141cr. Thus, net profit grew by 49.9% yoy to
Rs1,008cr, below our estimates of Rs1,259cr. The stock is currently under review.
TAJGVK
For 1QFY2011, TAJGVK reported robust 27.6% yoy growth in net sales to Rs61cr
(Rs47.8cr). With occupancy rates (ORs) and average room rates (ARRs) on a rise, fixed
costs are getting absorbed resulting in a multiplier effect on EBITDA (up 46.7% in
1QFY2011) and PAT (Rs10.1cr up 106.7% during the quarter). EBITDA margin improved
by 480bp yoy to 37.4% (32.6%) in 1QFY2011. Going ahead, we expect the company to
post a decent performance on the back of improving industry dynamics. Considering the
company’s growth prospects and attractive valuations at the current juncture, we maintain
our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs240
Union Bank of India
Union Bank of India has announced its 1QFY2011 results, wherein it has registered net
profit growth of 36.0% on a yoy basis to Rs601cr, which is better than our estimate of
Rs542cr mainly on account of lower provisioning expenses. Steady operating performance
with stable asset quality was the key highlight of the result. NII increased by robust 68.2%
yoy but was down by 3.4% qoq to Rs1,348cr. Non-interest income stood at Rs435cr, down
17.7% yoy and 11.7% on a sequential basis. Operating costs increased 36.2% yoy but
were down marginally by 0.2% qoq to Rs739cr. The cost-to-income ratio stood at 41.5%,
marginally higher with its eight-quarter average of 41.3%. The bank’s asset quality
remained stable during the quarter. Gross NPAs increased by 2.4% sequentially to
Rs2,736cr, while net NPAs stood at Rs1,150cr compared to Rs965cr (a rise of 19.1%) in
4QFY2010. The bank’s gross and net NPA ratio stood at 2.2% (2.2% in 4QFY2010) and
0.9% (0.8% in 4QFY2010), respectively. The provision coverage ratio (without tech write-
offs) declined to 58.0% compared to 63.9% in 4QFY2010. The bank’s CAR increased by
10bp to 12.6% as compared to 12.5% in 4QFY2010.
We would revisit our earnings estimates and target price post our interaction with the
bank’s management. We maintain our neutral outlook on the stock. At the CMP, the stock
is trading at valuations of 1.3x FY2012E ABV. We have a Neutral rating on the stock.
United Phosphorus
United Phosphorus (UPL) reported its 1QFY2011 results. Net sales came in at Rs1469cr
(Rs1639cr), which were down by 10% on account of currency fluctuation and a decline in
realisations. OPM came in at 19.7%, which was ahead of our estimate of 18%, leading to
higher-than-estimated adjusted PAT of Rs192cr, against our estimate of Rs185cr. We have
revised our sales estimate downwards due to poor sales performance in 1Q; however, we
are increasing our OPM estimate due to better-than-expected performance. The stock is
currently trading at attractive valuation of 10x FY2012E earnings. Hence, we maintain our
Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs228.
July 27, 2010 5
6. Market Outlook | India Research
Result Previews-1QFY2011
Asian Paints
Asian Paints (APL) is expected to announce its results. For the quarter, we expect APL to
report 16.9% yoy consolidated top-line growth to Rs1,706cr, driven by steady volume
growth and strong pricing power. We expect APL’s bottom line to register growth of 19.1%
yoy to Rs210.4cr, aided by margin expansion of 26bp yoy to 19.2%. We maintain a
Neutral rating on the stock.
Ashok Leyland
Ashok Leyland is slated to announce its results. We expect the company’s top line to grow
substantially by 191.6% yoy to Rs2,661cr on account of 178% yoy growth in volumes and
marginal increase in realisations. On the operating front, EBITDA margin is expected to
expand by 803bp yoy to 11.0% on account of better operating leverage. Hence, the
bottom line is expected to surge by 1,903% yoy to Rs155.4cr. The stock rating is under
review.
Cadila Healthcare
Cadila Healthcare is slated to announce its results. The company is expected to post strong
top-line growth of 13.9% to Rs1,002cr for the quarter, driven by robust growth in the
export and domestic formulation fronts. We expect the company's OPM to remain flat at
20.7%. However, net profit is expected to increase by 17.2% to Rs146cr, driven by top-line
growth and lower financial cost. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a target price
of Rs714.
Ceat
Ceat is slated to announce its 1QFY2011 results. The company is expected to deliver
20.8% yoy growth in revenue to Rs814cr for the quarter. On the operating front, the
company is expected to post 1,190bp yoy decline in margins to 3.5% on account of
increased natural rubber prices. Net profit is expected to decline substantially by 82.4% yoy
to Rs10.6cr. The stock rating is under review.
Cairn India
We expect CIL to report strong top-line growth of 287.8% yoy to Rs795cr (Rs205cr).
Growth was largely on account of higher crude oil production following the commissioning
of Mangala field coupled with higher oil prices, up 34% yoy. On account of the same,
operating profit during the quarter is expected to register growth of 229.3% to Rs435cr
(Rs132.1cr). Operating margin during the quarter is likely to decline by 972bp; however,
the same is likely to slightly improve on a qoq basis. We believe full effect of the pipeline
commission and benefits of lower opex are likely to be seen in the consequent quarters.
Bottom line during the quarter is expected to register lower growth of 51.6% in comparison
to strong growth in sales and EBITDA on account of increased DD&A expenditure for the
company. We expect bottom line during the quarter to stand at Rs317cr (Rs209cr). We
have a Neutral rating on the stock.
July 27, 2010 6
7. Market Outlook | India Research
HUL
HUL is expected to announce its 1QFY2011 results. We expect the company to report
modest 5.7% yoy growth in its revenue to Rs4,733cr, largely driven by volumes (modeled
10% volume growth), as price cuts in the S&D segment will continue to drag overall growth
and margins. Hence, earnings are also expected to remain muted at 3.6% at Rs562.7cr
due to margin contraction, largely aided by higher other income on a low base. We
maintain our Reduce view on the stock.
IRB Infra
IRB Infra is expected to announce its 1QFY2011 results. We expect IRB to register robust
growth of 72.5% yoy to Rs714cr on the top-line front. On the operating margin front,
performance is expected to be flat with a yoy dip of 44bp to 39.7%, whereas net profit is
expected to register 15.6% growth to Rs94.1cr. We maintain our Accumulate view on the
stock.
JK Lakshmi Cement
JK Lakshmi Cement is expected to announce its results. We expect the top line to grow by
14.7% yoy to Rs402cr. OPM is expected to decline by 816bp yoy to 25.8%. On the
bottom-line front, we expect the company to register a 32.8% yoy decline in net profit to
Rs52.7cr. We maintain a Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs98.
Larsen & Toubro
Larsen & Toubro (L&T) is expected to announce its results. We expect L&T to post modest
top-line growth of 13.5% to Rs8,437cr. On the operating margin front, performance is
expected to be flat with a 65bp drop yoy to 10.7%. Net profit is expected to register a
18.6% decline yoy to Rs592cr. In light of the rich valuations that the stock trades at, we
maintain our Neutral view.
Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is scheduled to announce its results. We expect the
company’s top line to increase by 87.6% yoy to Rs60,126cr during the quarter, largely on
account of increased crude oil prices, commencement of gas production from the KG
basin and increased refinery throughput. Operating profits are expected to increase by
63.5% yoy to Rs9,680cr (Rs5,921cr), largely on account of higher gas production from the
KG basin, coupled with increased production from the new refinery. Despite strong EBITDA
growth, we expect the company’s bottom line to increase at a lower rate of 34.0% yoy to
Rs4,872cr (Rs3,874cr). However, RIL is likely to report subdued qoq performance (bottom-
line growth of 3.4% qoq) primarily on account of subdued refining margins and
petrochemical margins coupled with stagnant gas production. We expect RIL to report
average refining margins of US $8.0/bbl for the quarter. On the petrochemical front,
performance is likely to be flat on a qoq basis. While cracker margins have weakened, PP
margins and polyester margins have improved on a qoq basis. Production of gas from the
KG basin is likely to average at around 60mmscmd during the quarter. We recommend
Buy on the stock with a target price of Rs1,260.
July 27, 2010 7
8. Market Outlook | India Research
Titan Industries
Titan Industries Limited (Titan) is scheduled to announce its results. The company’s top line
is expected to grow 29.5% yoy to Rs1,143cr. On the operating front, we expect the
company’s margins to witness a yoy increase of 80bp to 6.4%. Net profit is expected to
grow 73.6% yoy to Rs43.4cr. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.
Economic and Political News
Investment norms for FDI-funded companies likely to be relaxed
Japan to lend Rs88.5cr for Delhi-Mumbai corridor
Moody’s upgrades India’s sovereign currency rating
Corporate News
Fortis Healthcare divests entire stake in Parkway to Khazanah for S$3.95 per share
Reliance Media World signs 5yr Delhi Metro Rail Corporation Mandate
DLF to Buy Dubai world in JV
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Events for the day
3i Infotech Results
Ashok Leyland Results
Asian Hotels Results
Asian Paints Results
Astrazeneca Pharma India Results
Binani Cement Results
Blue Dart Results
Cadila Health Results
Cairn India Results
Ceat Results
Elder Pharma Results
Glenmark Pharma Results
Godrej Industries Results
Greenply Industries Results
GTL Results
HCL Technologies Results
HUL Results
IRB Infra Results
JK Lakshmi Cement Results
JSW Steel Results
Jubilant Organosys Results
L&T Results
Oil India Results
Patni Computers Results
RIL Results
Spicejet Results
Titan Industries Results
July 27, 2010 8
9. Market Outlook | India Research
Research Team Tel: 022-4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
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