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Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF-Chem) Model
This document summarizes information from various sources about climate change impacts and weather and climate modeling. It discusses increasing costs of extreme weather events, improvements in weather forecasting, projected increases in Pakistan's temperatures by 2050, changes in monsoon patterns, recent disasters in Pakistan, increased runoff projections from the Himalayas, socioeconomic and climate interactions, risks from climate change for different regions, downscaling of global models to regional models, and calls for early warning systems and disaster risk reduction.
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- 1. Weather Research & Forecasting (WRF-Chem) Model Lokhaze Ali PhD Student NUST
- 3. The New Norms(Most Likely) • US $222 billion during 2010 alone • $16 billion associated with Pakistan floods 2010, 2011 & 2012 (Chairman NDMA) • $80 billion with 2008 Katrina Hurricane, USA • $200-240 billion with 2011 Japan Earthquake
- 4. Met Office UK BBC 24 September, 2014 • Four-day forecast as accurate as one-day forecast 30 years ago • Data crunching • Petaflop • One thousand million million calculations a second 1015 • Two-and-a-half hours to process data • 20 different scenarios for a forecast (most likely)
- 5. World Climate ResearchProgramme (WCRP)
- 6. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)
- 7. Data Collection &Climate Projections Mean Air Temp Change CMIP5 RCP4.5 2011-2100 Summer Mean Temp JJAS (1979-2005)
- 8. Climate of Pakistan(1981-2010)
- 9. Pakistan 2050 +2.50C +1.50C +1.90C Ref: Dr. G Rasul (PMD), 2014
- 10. Change in MonsoonPatterns
- 11. Recent Disasters inPakistan (NDMA) Cyclones Yemyin-2007 Phat-2010 Malakand Displacements 2009 / 10 Earthquakes Ziarat-2008 Dalbandeen-2010 Maskhel,Awaran 2013 Landslides / GLOF Attabad-2010, Gyari 2012 Floods: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 Drought Tharparker (2014)
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- 15. Weather Systems Tracks 2010, 2011 & 2014 Ref: Dr Hanif (PMD), 2014 15
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- 19. North Atlantic Oscillations(NAO) & Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
- 20. STUDIES OF EMISSIONSAND ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, CLOUDS AND CLIMATE COUPLING BY REGIONAL SURVEYS (SEAC4RS) • Influence of Asian emissions on clouds, climate, and air quality • Asian monsoon circulation
- 21. FRAPPE - FRONTRANGE AIR POLLUTION AND PHOTOCHEMISTRY EXPERIMENT • C-130 Aircraft • DISCOVER-AQ Mission
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- 24. Increase in Runoff Higher Glacier Melt & Precipitation • Avg annual runoff generation (TR) ref period (1998– 2007, REF • Mean projected annual total runoff (PTR) for the future (2041– 2050 RCP4.5) • PTR is split into four contributors • BF: baseflow • GM: glacier melt • SM: snow melt • RR: rainfall runoff).
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- 26. SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Socioeconomic Pathways Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Governance CLIMATE Natural Variability Anthropogenic Climate Change Vulnerability Hazards RISK Exposure IMPACTS EMISSIONS and Land-use Change
- 27. POLAR REGIONS Risksfor Health r Risk Level with Current Adaptation Risk-Level Very Low Med Potential for Additional Adaptation to Reduce Risk Present Near Term (2030-2040 2°C Risk Level with High Adaptation Very High 4°C Long Term (2080-2100 SMALL ISLANDS Loss of Livelihoods, Settlements, Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Stability Risks for Low-Lying Coastal Areas Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE Compounded Stress on Water Resources Reduced Crop Productivity and Livelihood and Food Security Vector- and Water- Borne Diseases AFRICA ASIA Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure , Livelihoods, and Settlements Heat-Related Human Mortality Increased Drought- Related Water and Food Shortage Increased Losses and Impacts from Extreme Heat Events Increased Water Restrictions Significant Change in Composition and Structure of Coral Reef Systems Increased Flood Damage to Infrastructure and Settlements AUSTRALASIA Increased Risks to Coastal Infrastructure and Low-Lying Ecosystems Increased Risks from Wildfires Heat-Related Human Mortality Damages from River and Coastal Urban Floods NORTH AMERICA CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA Reduced Water Availability and Increased Flooding and Landslides Reduced Food Production and Quality Vector-Borne Diseases THE OCEAN Reduced Fisheries Catch Potential at Low Latitudes Increased Mass Coral Bleaching and Mortality Coastal Inundation and Habitat Loss Unprecedented Challenges, Especially from Rate of Change Risks for Ecosystems and Well-Being
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- 29. Invest Today forThe Next Generation (Our Tomorrow) • Early Warning Systems (EWS) • Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) • Disaster Management • Remote Sensing
- 30. Technology 2100 (Itwas Our power that made) the violent (unruly) wind flow (tamely) for Solomon, to his order, to the land which We had blessed: for We do know all things… (Al-Quran)