The document discusses natural hazard analysis, emphasizing the classification and characteristics of hazards, their potential impacts, and the importance of hazard identification, assessment, and mapping in disaster risk reduction. It outlines various types of hazards, including natural, quasi-natural, and technological, along with their origins and effects on populations and environments. The document also highlights the need for dynamic monitoring and predictive assessments to mitigate the risks associated with hazards in Indonesia's diverse landscape.

1. HAZARDS ANALYSIS
Natural Hazards Study
Dr. Danang Sri Hadmoko
ProSPER.Net Young Researchers’ School
“Ecosystem-based Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change
Adaptation” 3-10 March 2019

2. • Understanding the importance of natural hazard study
• The concepts of hazard, hazard event, secondary hazards, multiple
hazards and disaster
• Classify and describe types of hazards, explain hazard characteristics such as
magnitude, frequency, intensity and rate of onset and their importance
• Conduct hazard identification, hazard assessment and hazard mapping
and explain their functional value
The Objective of this Session

3. Understanding the importance of natural
hazard study

4. INDONESIA: THE WORLD’S BIGGEST ARCHIPELAGIC COUNTRY
250
million
17,508
islands
82.505
Villages
99,093 km
coastlines
34
Provinces
1158
Local
languages

5. 95° E 105° E 115° E 125° E 135° E
0° N
5° N
0° N
5° N
Océan Indien
Océan Pacifique
Mer de Chine Méridionale
Plaque INDO-AUSTRALIENNE
Plaque CAROLINE
Plaque EURASIATIQUE
6.5 cm/an
Java
INDONESIA: JUNCTION OF 3 ACTIVE PLATE TECTONICS

7. Top 10 countries/territories in terms of absolute
losses (billion US$) 1998-2017

8. Number of disasters by major category per
year 1998-2017
UNISDR, 2018
In terms of occurrences, climate-related disasters dominate the picture over the past 20 years,
accounting for 91% of all 7,255 recorded events between 1998 and 2017

9. Numbers of disasters per type 1998-2017
UNISDR, 2018

11. The concepts/ terminology of hazard,
hazard event, secondary hazards,
multiple hazards and disaster

12. Hazards
• Hazards can include latent conditions that may represent future threats. They
can be natural in origin (geological, hydro-meteorological and biological) and/or
induced by human processes (environmental degradation and technological
hazards).
• Hazards can be single, sequential or combined in their origin and effects.
• Each hazard is characterized by its location, intensity, magnitude, area of extent
and probability.

13. Hazard is an event or occurrence that has
the potential for causing injuries to life and
damaging property and the environment.
A natural hazard refers to the probability
of occurrence in a specific time period
and geographic area of a potentially
damaging phenomenon.
There is a potential for the
occurrence of a disaster
event
Visualizing a Hazard

14. Elements at Risk
• People - death, injury, disease and stress
• Human activity – economic, educational etc.
• Property - property damage, economic loss of
• Environment - loss fauna and flora, pollution, loss of amenities.
A Hazard is a threat. A future source of danger. It has the potential
to cause harm to (element at risk):
Persons, buildings, crops or other such like societal components exposed to known
hazard, which are likely to be adversely affected by the impact of the hazard.

15. HAZARD
Potential
Damage Elements at Risk
Slopes of hills
Sea & Sea-coast
Low-lying Areas
River/Stream Banks
Natural Features
Unsecured personal assets
Livelihood tools / Equipment
Public Infrastructure
Agri. & Horticultural crops
Weak Buildings
Huts & Semi-permanent Houses
People & Live-stock
Societal Elements
Element at Risk

16. Visualizing Disaster
An event, either man‐made or natural, sudden or progressive, causing
widespread human, material or environmental losses

17. Natural Disaster vs Natural Phenomenon
• A natural disaster is the consequence of the combination of a
natural hazard (a physical event e.g. volcanic eruption,
earthquake, landslide) and human activities.
• A natural phenomena is the occurring of such kind of natural
processes within given magnitude which is not harmful to human
activities

18. A cyclone that surges over the ocean or an uninhabited
island does not result in a disaster.
However, it would be a disaster
if it hit the populated coast and
caused extensive loss of lives
and property.
Natural Disaster vs Natural Phenomenon
NASA

19. Natural Phenomenon VS Natural Disaster
Natural phenomenon Disaster

20. Dome’s photo: January 26, 2014
Imagery source: GeoEye-1

21. Ingredients of Risks
= H x V
C

22. Classify and describe types of hazards,
explain hazard characteristics such as
magnitude, frequency, intensity and rate
of onset and their importance

23. Type of Hazards
1. Natural hazards such as earthquakes
or floods arise from purely natural
processes in the environment.
2. Quasi-natural hazards such as smog or
desertification arise through the
interaction of natural processes and
human activities.
3. Technological (or man-made) hazards
such as the toxicity of pesticides to
fauna, accidental release of chemicals
or radiation from a nuclear plant.
These arise directly as a result of
human activities.

24. Type of Hazards
1. Endogenous vs Exogenous Hazards
2. Primary vs Secondary Hazards
3. Single vs Multiple Hazards vs Collateral Hazards
4. Natural Hazards vs Natural Hazard induced by humans vs
Technological Hazards

25. Type of Hazards
Endogenous
Hazards
Earthquake
Volcanic Eruption
Flood
Tsunami
Landslides
Forest Fire
Climate
Change
Drought
Exogenous
Hazards
Seismically
controlled
Climatically Controlled

26. Volcanic Eruption and associated hazards
VOLCANIC
GASSES
PYROCLASTIC
FLOWS
VOLCANIC
ASHESTSUNAMI
LAHARSCLIMATE
DISTURBANCE

27. 8 Octobre 2007
23 Octobre 2007
26 Octobre 2007 29 Octobre 2007
Example of
Hazards:
Evolution of water
color at Kelud Lake
in 2007
(photos DVGHM)

28. Lava Dome, Anak Kelut,
December 2007
Effusive Eruption: Example of Disaster
Photo DVGHM

29. SECONDARY HAZARD: LAHAR
Anis Efizudin, VivaNews.com, 9 Desember 2010
Lahar is Javanese term to explain a rapidly flowing,
high-concentration, poorly sorted sediment-laden
mixtures of rock debris and water from a volcano.

30. - Lahars as main secondary hazard of Volcanic Eruption
Movie by Lavigne

31. Boyong, Merapi, December 1994
Boyong, Merapi, Februari 1995
LAHARS

32. Lahar in Code River (29 November 2010)
(Nearby Sardjito Hospital)
Flood Plain Flood Plain

33. the impact of 2010 MERAPI ERUPTION
in Code River “Yogyakarta City”
Lahar Flood in December 2010

34. PLINIAN ERUPTION OF KRAKATOA (1883)
Erupted on August 26–27, 1883

35. Segara Anak Lake
Barujari cone
Mount Rinjani
(3726 m)
Sector
collapse
CRISP, 2012
Sector
collapse

36. • VEI = 7 (> 100 km3)
• Eruption intensity = 12
• High dispersal index D
>49,000 km2
• Ultraplinian eruption
• Samalas volcano in Lombok
is a solid source candidate
for one the biggest volcanic
eruption of the Holocene,
AD 1257;
• Greater magnitude than
the nearby Tambora;
• Drastic local effects in
Indonesia:
• Total destruction of the
Pamatan Kingdom
• in Lombok (this ancient city
probably lies buried
beneath tephra deposits);
• No sovereign in Bali for 64
years since AD 1260 for an
unknown reason.
ULTRAPLINIAN ERUPTION OF SAMALAS (1257 AD)

37. • Large volume of aerosols into the atmosphere for at
least two years (two dark lunar eclipses observed in
Europe in May and November 1258)
• Climate disturbance in the continental northern
hemisphere in 1258: winter warming, widespread
summer cooling (a “year without a summer »
revealed by written sources and tree-ring data) =>
bad harvests that may have led to local disasters.
 Global impacts of the AD 1257 ultraplinian Samalas eruption
Archaeologists
recently determined
a date of AD 1258
for mass burial of
thousands of
medieval skeletons
in London, which
can thus be linked to
the global impacts
of the AD 1257
Samalas eruption.

39. Perturbation of Aerial Transportation
Ex.: Galunggung, 1982
“Ladies and gentlemen, this is your captain speaking. We
have a small problem. All four engines have stopped. We are
doing our damnedest to get them under control. I trust you
are not in too much distress”
Boeing 747 du vol 9 British Airways, 263 passagers
After the four reactors were shut down, the aircraft continued its flight for 16
minutes, losing 7500 meters from its initial altitude of 11,500 meters.

40. Example: Earthquake as a primary hazard
• Building collapse
• Dam failure
• Fire
• Hazardous material spill
• Interruption of power/ water supply/ communication/
transportation/ waste disposal
• Landslide
• Soil liquefaction
• Tsunami (tidal wave)
• Water pollution
SecondaryHazards

41. Hazard identification, hazard assessment and
hazard mapping

42. Natural Hazards Analysis
The identification, study and
monitoring of any hazard to
determine its potential, origin,
characteristics and behavior.
Identification Mapping
Assessment Monitoring Forecasting

43. Questions related to Hazards identification and
mapping
1. What kind of hazards that potentially threatening the area you live in ?
2. Could this hazard affect the area you live in?
3. Is this hazard a significant threat there?
4. How often does it pose a threat? E.g. Once every 5 years? 10 years?
5. What is a close estimate of the population size that could be affected by this hazard event? Give a
rating. Very high? High? Medium? Low?
6. What is the expected duration of the hazard?
7. What is the expected damage from the hazard event? Give a rating. Very high? High? Medium? Low?
8. What is the expected intensity of impact expected? Give a rating. Very high? High? Medium? Low?
9. How predictable is the threat?
10.Can the effect of the event be reduced?

44. Hazards Assessment / Zoning
Hazard zoning – The subdivision of the area in zones that are
characterized by the probability of occurrence of natural hazards of a
particular size/magnitude, area, volume, within a given period of
time.
Hazard Assessment is the process of estimating, for defined areas, the
probabilities of the occurrence of potentially-damaging phenomenon of
given magnitude within a specified period of time. UNDRO

45. Hazards Assessment
Spatial Probability/
Susceptibiity
Temporal Probability

46. Hazards assessment approach
1. Qualitative hazards assessment
2. Semi-quantitative hazards assessment
3. Quantitative hazards assessment
1. Probabilistic approach
2. Deterministic approach / physical-based approach

47. Determining hazards: an example
(HAZARDS)
Spatial
Probability
Temporal
Probability
Landuse
Soil
Geology
Slope
Landslide
event
Landslide
event
Triggering
factor
Eartrthquake
Rainfall
(VULNERABILITY)
Agriculture
Road
Houses
Infrastructure
Population
Element
at risk
Qualitative
Semi-
Quantitative
Probabilistic
Deterministic
METHODS
Magnitudo
Frequency
HAZARDS
Spatio-temporal
Probability
Potetntial damage
and loss of elemet
at risk
Economic value of
element at risk
(loss)
0 1 0 1 Rupiah
Total potential loss

48. Presenting Hazards Information: Example of Pegunungan Menoreh
U

49. Landslide probability map
ProSpatial probability of landslide = (V1*0,1297) + (V2*0,2396) + (V3*0,0916) + (V4*0,0855) +
(V5*0,136) + (V6*0,0714) + (V7*0,0374) + (V8*0,1339) + (V9*0,0748)
Histogram probabilitas kejadian
Spatial
Probability
(Sumber: Hadmoko, 2009)

50. Example of Spatial Probability Map -> Landslide
?

51. 0 %10 %20 %25 %30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %75 %80 %90 %100 %
Very High
High
medium
low
Landslide probability:
Degree of Saturation:
Deterministic Approach (Hydrodynamic approach)

52. Example of microzonation of
tsunami hazards: Aceh

53. Run-up data:
tsunami Aceh
51 m
Lavigne,2005

54. Wave height measurement
using laser system

55. Hazards monitoring and forecasting
• Hazards are dynamic processes, they can be different from one year
to another, therefore hazards map should be updated in order to
adjust to the environmental dynamic/ change.
• Series of phenomena have to be monitored in order to determine the
pattern, therefore the future threat can be forecasted.

56. Terima Kasih