Presentation held by Karl Rose Senior Director of the World Energy Council, London regarding the publication made about the world's energy scenarios.

1. © World Energy Council 2013
World Energy Scenarios
Composing Energy Futures to 2050
Prof. Karl Rose, Senior Director, WEC London

2. © World Energy Council 2013
The scenarios are designed to
help a range of stakeholders to
address the “energy trilemma” –
of achieving environmental
sustainability, energy security and
energy equity.
WEC’s latest scenarios study:
Comprises of two scenarios
Stories quantified by Paul Scherrer
Institute (project partner)

3. © World Energy Council 2013
What are scenarios?
►portray a range of conceivable
outcomes and aid the
understanding of how different
factors can interact and shape
the future.
►identify robust trends; „what-if‟
assumptions about future.
Scenarios are not forecast.
- Plausible, pertinent, alternative stories of the future which:
Figure: The uncertainty funnel:
WEC Scenarios are explorative,
rather than normative

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Scenario Building Process

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 Two Scenarios stories, exploratory, different and equally
probable rather than good and bad
 Jazz:
Trade based, consumer driven, focussed on access and
affordability. achieving growth through low cost energy.
Governments facilitate GHG actions.
 Symphony:
Government led, voter driven, focussed on environmental
goals and energy security, national and regional measures
to increase share of renewables in energy mix. Binding
international agreement on GHG emissions
WEC Scenarios
Deriving the scenario stories
5

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Jazz
Highlighted results:
The share of fossils fuels in the total primary energy supply:
• In Jazz in 2050: 77%
• In Symphony in 2050: 59%
(cf. share of fossils in 2010: 80%)
Global final energy demand:
• Jazz 2050: 629 EJ
• Symphony 2050: 491 EJ
(cf. the demand in 2010: 373 EJ)
Per capita electricity consumption will roughly double:
• In Jazz by 2050: 5440kWh/y
• In Symphony by 2050: 4600kWh/y
(cf. consumption in 2010: 2580kWh/y)
The cumulative CO₂ emissions are for 2010 to 2050:
• Jazz: 2000Gt
• Symphony: 1400Gt
(cf. roughly 1000Gt from the period 1900-2004, source: www.wri.org)

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Global total primary energy supply
JAZZ:
• Upstream liberalized;
• technology
development,
• supply surge/more
producers
• Coal remains dominant
in some regions
SYMPHONY:
• Tighter supply (lower
E&P)
• Higher infrastructure
costs
• Energy security drives
reduced fossil use
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony
2050
EJ/y
Renewables: output of electricity and heat;
Biomass: primary supply incl. waste;
Nuclear: 33% efficiency
Renewables
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

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Electricity production by primary energy
JAZZ:
• coal: expected to
remain dominant
• gas: share increases
(esp. N. America),
• nuclear: mainly non-
OECD
SYMPHONY:
• coal: share drops, CCS
increasingly required
• nuclear: increasing; led
by governments
• Renewables: stable &
quicker transition0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony
2050
TWh/y
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass (with
CCS)
Biomass
Hydro
Hydrogen
Nuclear
Gas
Gas (with CCS)
Oil
Coal

9. © World Energy Council 2013 9
Renewable electricity production
Jazz Symphony
Renewables undergo rapid
development, accounting for almost
50% of total electricity generation in
2050 (cf. 20% in 2010)
Hydro and wind electricity are
competitive. Renewables account for
roughly 30% of total electricity
generation by 2050.

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The global economy will be challenged to meet the 450 ppm target
without enormous economic costs
Resulting CO₂ emissions (black lines)

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Results for Europe

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Total primary energy supply: Europe
JAZZ:
• Functioning carbon
markets (albeit low
prices).
• Biomass, wind and
solar play a key role
after 2030.
SYMPHONY:
• Energy policy
implemented via a
central mechanism
• specific technologies
chosen for investment
(incl. CC(U)S)
• The share of fossil
fuels drops to 52% in
2050.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony 2050
EJ/y
Renewables
Hydro
Biomass
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal

13. © World Energy Council 2013 13
Electricity production by primary energy: Europe
JAZZ:
• Gas and coal to remain
an integral part of the
electricity generation mix
• Share of wind to increase
SYMPHONY:
• Significant share of
nuclear in the electricity
generation mix
• Coal with CCS to emerge
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2010 Jazz 2050 Symphony
2050
TWh/y
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass (with CCS)
Biomass
Hydro
Hydrogen
Nuclear
Gas
Gas (with CCS)
Oil
Coal
Coal (with CCS)

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Investment in Electricity Generation in Europe
Cumulative 2010-2050 in GW
0
1000
2000
3000
JAZZ SYMPHONY
Geothermal
Solar
Wind
Biomass (with CCS)
Biomass
Hydropower
Hydrogen
Nuclear
Gas
Gas (with CCS)
Oil
Coal
Coal (with CCS)
Symphony cumul. undiscounted investment:
Jazz cumul. undiscounted investment:
4.4
3.3
trillion US$2010
trillion US$2010
JAZZ:
• Investment needs are
highest in wind, gas and
coal
SYMPHONY:
• Investment needs in
wind even higher than in
the Jazz scenario,
followed by gas and solar

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Investment needs: Europe
Total investment is roughly 3 trillion in Jazz and 4 trillion in Symphony in European
electricity generation, (2010-2050, USD2010, undiscounted)

16. © World Energy Council 2013
► Energy efficiency and energy conservation are absolutely
crucial in dealing with demand outstripping supply
► Coal remains a dominant fuel (especially in China and
India), increasing challenges around CCS
► Natural gas will gain more importance in the energy share
► Oil will continue to be a dominant fuel in transport globally,
but e-mobility will be strong in Europe
► Nuclear is not a game changer
► Wind: great economic potential of wind power in both
scenarios
► Renewables: overall share will increase significantly
Energy mix in 2050