This document summarizes a presentation on the UK's energy policy goals and low carbon transition. It discusses the shifting priorities of security, affordability and emissions reductions. It outlines the UK's progress in reducing emissions through changes in electricity supply, including less coal and more gas, nuclear and renewables. However, it notes significant uncertainties around technology costs and the role of gas in providing secure, low carbon electricity. Flexibility options and greater interconnectors are proposed to maintain security as the system transitions to lower carbon sources.

1. Click to add title
A UK Energy Systems Perspective
Jim Watson, UKERC Research Director
APGTF Annual Workshop, London, 12-13 March 2014

2. Click to add titleOverview
The UK’s energy policy goals: a shifting agenda
Low carbon transitions for the power sector
The role of fossil fuels and CCS
Relative costs & cost trajectories
Flexibility and electricity system security
Public values & energy system change

3. The UK’s energy policy goals
‘Security of supply, affordability,
and playing our part in combating
climate change. And that for me is
the order’
Michael Fallon, 2nd Dec 2013

4. Reducing carbon emissions
Source: Committee on Climate

5. Important for many reasons:
• High energy prices since mid 2000s
• Geopolitics and conflicts (e.g. Iraq war;
Russia-Ukraine disputes)
• Impacts of extreme weather events (e.g.
power blackouts; hurricane Katrina)
• Ageing and/or inadequate infrastructure
(power plants; gas storage capacity)
Debates often focus on international
risks, but many risks closer to home
Domestic energy sources are not
always more secure than imports
Maintaining energy security

6. -200.0
-100.0
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
TWh
Exports Pipeline Imports LNG Imports Net Imports
Source: DECC
Maintaining energy security
From gas exporter to importer / trader
Maintaining energy security:
from gas exporter to importer

7. 0
100
200
300
400
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Index(2000=100)
Gas Electricity
Gas prices have
trebled since 2000
Electricity prices have
doubled since 2000
Affordability:
Domestic gas & electricity prices
Affordability for consumers

8. Click to add titleAffordability and Fuel Poverty
Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change

9. Trade-offs between policy goals

10. The UK’s low carbon transition:
so far, so good?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Emissions:mtCO2(equiv)
CO2 emissions Other GHGs Total GHGs
Source: Department of Energy and Climate Change
CO2 emissions
are down 19%
since 1990

11. Click to add titleThe UK’s low carbon transition
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Electricitysupplied(GWh)
Conventional thermal, incl biomass CCGTs Nuclear Other renewables
Source: DECC Statistics

12. The UK’s low carbon transition:
CCC projection for 2020
Source: Committee on Climate Change (May 2013)
12GW of fossil and 3.5GW of nuclear plant retires
EU renewables target: 30-35% of electricity by 2020
Energy efficiency; two CCS demos; 5GW unabated gas

13. The UK’s low carbon transition
CCC scenarios for 50g/kWh in 2030
Source: Committee on Climate Change (May 2013)

14. 3. Innovation systems & developmentSignificant cost uncertainties
Unclear which technologies will ‘win’
Source: UKERC

15. 3. Innovation systems & developmentSignificant cost uncertainties
Unclear which technologies will ‘win’
Source: UKERC

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Significant cost uncertainties
Will costs fall in future?
Source: CCS Cost
Reduction Task Force

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Significant cost uncertainties
Costs go up as well as down
FGD capital costs in the USA (1997$)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
$/kW

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Significant cost uncertainties
The case of offshore wind
Source: The Crown Estate (May 2012)
Drivers of increase include:
Commodity prices; exchange
rates; deeper water, supply chain
limitations; reliability problems

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Significant cost uncertainties
Where are we for CCS?
Here?
Here?
Or here?

20. Click to add titleSecure, low carbon electricity?
The CCC say that all of their electricity scenarios are
‘compatible with’ maintaining security
15% of electricity demand is flexible, at least within day
(Sustainability First estimate technical potential is 10-
18GW or one third of load)
Much more interconnection: 10GW
A bit more pumped storage (up 0.6GW to 3.3GW)
Significant increase in gas-fired capacity
Also assume that wind can make a contribution to
system security at some times of day / year

21. Secure, low carbon electricity?
‘[A] substantial investment in gas
generation and gas import
infrastructure here in the UK is
completely consistent with Britain’s
plans to cut carbon emissions, set
out in our Carbon Plan. In electricity
generation alone, I expect new gas
capacity of around 20GW to be built
between now and 2030’
Ed Davey, 8th October 2012

22. Secure, low carbon electricity?
‘An enterprise strategy means
investing in renewable energy, and
opening up the newly discovered
shale gas reserves beneath our land.
We are today consulting on a
generous new tax regime for shale so
that Britain is not left behind as gas
prices tumble on the other side of the
Atlantic.’
George Osborne, 8th October 2012
(Simultaneously!)

23. Secure, low carbon electricity?
Many (government) views on role of gas
NB: Gas capacity is not fitted with CCS
Source: DECC Gas Strategy
100g / kWh George: 200g / kWh Ed: 50g / kWh
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Powerfromgas(%)
37GW 49GW 31GW

24. Maintaining energy security
From gas exporter to importer / trader
Secure, low carbon electricity?
More pressing issues in the short-term
Source: Ofgem
(June 2013)

25. Maintaining energy security
From gas exporter to importer / trader
Source:
UKERC
Public attitudes and values

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Thanks
http://www.ukerc.ac.uk
https://twitter.com/watsonjim2