The document discusses several key points about global energy trends and cities:
1) Current global energy trends are unsustainable environmentally, socially, and economically. World energy demand is projected to increase significantly by 2030, with coal accounting for over a third of that growth.
2) Cities already account for around two-thirds of global primary energy use and this is projected to increase to over 73% by 2030. Most of the growth in city energy use will come from non-OECD countries.
3) To achieve resilience in energy systems and mitigate climate change, cities need to show leadership in their own energy use and influence their communities through actions like energy efficiency, renewable energy, and sustainable transportation policies.
Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Energy Sector
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
International Energy Agency
World Energy Council
Rome, 19th March 2009
The mammoth energy requirements of India coupled with the strong push being provided by the government to renewable sources of energy makes this sector a lucrative business prospect. This presentation details the overview of the renewable energy sector in India as well as Gujarat and highlights the business opportunities available within the sector.
Energy Reimagined - Influencing outcomes of the future of energy mixEY
What's the recipe for tomorrow's energy mix? We explored three scenarios around the present and future of the energy landscape as introduced at EY’s Energy Reimagined Summit.
Impact of the Financial Crisis on the Energy Sector
Dr. Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
International Energy Agency
World Energy Council
Rome, 19th March 2009
The mammoth energy requirements of India coupled with the strong push being provided by the government to renewable sources of energy makes this sector a lucrative business prospect. This presentation details the overview of the renewable energy sector in India as well as Gujarat and highlights the business opportunities available within the sector.
Energy Reimagined - Influencing outcomes of the future of energy mixEY
What's the recipe for tomorrow's energy mix? We explored three scenarios around the present and future of the energy landscape as introduced at EY’s Energy Reimagined Summit.
A new global energy landscape is emerging, resetting long-held expectations for our energy future. Bringing together the latest data and policy developments, the World Energy Outlook 2013 presents up to date, projections of energy trends through to 2035, fuel by fuel, sector by sector, region by region and scenario by scenario. Oil is analysed in-depth: resources, production, demand, refining and international trade. Energy efficiency is treated in much the same way as conventional fuels: Its prospects and contribution are presented in a dedicated chapter. The report examines the outlook for Brazil's energy sector and provides updates on three key areas of critical importance to energy and climate trends: (i) achieving universal energy access; (ii) developments in subsidies to fossil fuels and renewables; and (iii) the impact of energy use on climate change. Oil supply, demand and trade: a fresh look at the economics and decline rates of different types of oil production around the world, the prospects for light tight oil inside and outside North America, along with new analysis of oil products and the refining sector. By Fatih Birol, Chief Economist, International Energy Agency
Energy power shift 04 2015 rallis vasilis Vasilis Rallis
Webinar, Manchester Business School, MBA Energy and Industry Club
A general outlook on the energy industry and changes shaping the future. The presentation describes the shifting trends in Oil, Gas, Power (Electricity and RES), Climate Change and emerging business models
Bjorn Stigson's Presentation to the V100 Business ForumVenture Publishing
Bjorn Stigson is the president of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. This is the presentation he gave to the attendees of Alberta Venture's V100 Business Forum in Edmonton and Calgary, Alberta on Oct. 19-20.
The webinar will present the main results of the analysis in the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2017, and will cover:
- The implications of Southeast Asia’s growing role in global energy consumption for energy security, the environment and economic development
- A roadmap towards universal electricity access across the region, with details on the mix of fuels and technologies that could achieve this at the lowest cost
- A pathway towards mitigating Southeast Asia’s growing energy security and environmental concerns illustrated in The Sustainable Development Scenario, including the implications for energy sector investment to 2040
This is the third webinar in a series that is presenting the key findings and analysis from the World Energy Outlook 2017.
Presentation from the OECD Workshop “Climate transition scenarios: integrating models into risk assessment under uncertainty and the cost of delayed action” (6 July 2022) - Session 1, Blandine Barreau, International Energy Agency (IEA)
Cédric PHILIBERT, analyst in Energy and Climate Change, IEA, provided an overview of the renewable energies development and of the associated challenges and opportunities for the power grids.
The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) together with US-ASEAN Connect and the US Mission to ASEAN, hosted a discussion on with Ambassador Virginia E. Palmer, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the U.S. State Department’s Bureau of Energy Resources. This is a presentation by Prof Jun Arima, ERIA's Senior Policy Fellow for Energy Environment.
Energy Efficiency: A Sign of Personal Virtue or an Untapped Business Opportun...Sasin SEC
by Peter du Pont, Vice-President, Government & Clean Energy Consulting, Nexant Inc.
According to the Asian Development Bank, a total of $944 billion of investment will be needed in energy savings opportunities by 2020 in order for China, India, and Southeast Asian countries to meet their national targets for EE and greenhouse gas emission reductions. Yet only a fraction of this investment is currently being planned. This talk will address the proverbial $20 bill lying on the ground and describe why there are so few takers, and what is needed to “sex” up energy efficiency so that it becomes a more broadly bankable business opportunity. It will describe different business and regulatory models for stimulating investments in energy efficiency in buildings, factories, and the transport sector.
Dr. Peter du Pont leads the clean energy initiatives at Nexant Asia and has more than 25 years of experience developing sustainable energy and efficiency programs in the U.S. and Asia.
Similar to Global Scenario - Energy, (ICLEI World Congress 2009) (20)
Challenges and Outlook for the 21thCentury
ICLEI World Congress 2009, F2 Building and Construction, 17 June 2009
Philipp Tepper, Project Officer, ICLEI European Secretariat
Holger Robrecht from ICLEI European Secretariat gives an introduction to "Sustainability Management" or how to run our cities and towns in an environmentally friendly way.
DevOps and Testing slides at DASA ConnectKari Kakkonen
My and Rik Marselis slides at 30.5.2024 DASA Connect conference. We discuss about what is testing, then what is agile testing and finally what is Testing in DevOps. Finally we had lovely workshop with the participants trying to find out different ways to think about quality and testing in different parts of the DevOps infinity loop.
LF Energy Webinar: Electrical Grid Modelling and Simulation Through PowSyBl -...DanBrown980551
Do you want to learn how to model and simulate an electrical network from scratch in under an hour?
Then welcome to this PowSyBl workshop, hosted by Rte, the French Transmission System Operator (TSO)!
During the webinar, you will discover the PowSyBl ecosystem as well as handle and study an electrical network through an interactive Python notebook.
PowSyBl is an open source project hosted by LF Energy, which offers a comprehensive set of features for electrical grid modelling and simulation. Among other advanced features, PowSyBl provides:
- A fully editable and extendable library for grid component modelling;
- Visualization tools to display your network;
- Grid simulation tools, such as power flows, security analyses (with or without remedial actions) and sensitivity analyses;
The framework is mostly written in Java, with a Python binding so that Python developers can access PowSyBl functionalities as well.
What you will learn during the webinar:
- For beginners: discover PowSyBl's functionalities through a quick general presentation and the notebook, without needing any expert coding skills;
- For advanced developers: master the skills to efficiently apply PowSyBl functionalities to your real-world scenarios.
PHP Frameworks: I want to break free (IPC Berlin 2024)Ralf Eggert
In this presentation, we examine the challenges and limitations of relying too heavily on PHP frameworks in web development. We discuss the history of PHP and its frameworks to understand how this dependence has evolved. The focus will be on providing concrete tips and strategies to reduce reliance on these frameworks, based on real-world examples and practical considerations. The goal is to equip developers with the skills and knowledge to create more flexible and future-proof web applications. We'll explore the importance of maintaining autonomy in a rapidly changing tech landscape and how to make informed decisions in PHP development.
This talk is aimed at encouraging a more independent approach to using PHP frameworks, moving towards a more flexible and future-proof approach to PHP development.
Software Delivery At the Speed of AI: Inflectra Invests In AI-Powered QualityInflectra
In this insightful webinar, Inflectra explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming software development and testing. Discover how AI-powered tools are revolutionizing every stage of the software development lifecycle (SDLC), from design and prototyping to testing, deployment, and monitoring.
Learn about:
• The Future of Testing: How AI is shifting testing towards verification, analysis, and higher-level skills, while reducing repetitive tasks.
• Test Automation: How AI-powered test case generation, optimization, and self-healing tests are making testing more efficient and effective.
• Visual Testing: Explore the emerging capabilities of AI in visual testing and how it's set to revolutionize UI verification.
• Inflectra's AI Solutions: See demonstrations of Inflectra's cutting-edge AI tools like the ChatGPT plugin and Azure Open AI platform, designed to streamline your testing process.
Whether you're a developer, tester, or QA professional, this webinar will give you valuable insights into how AI is shaping the future of software delivery.
State of ICS and IoT Cyber Threat Landscape Report 2024 previewPrayukth K V
The IoT and OT threat landscape report has been prepared by the Threat Research Team at Sectrio using data from Sectrio, cyber threat intelligence farming facilities spread across over 85 cities around the world. In addition, Sectrio also runs AI-based advanced threat and payload engagement facilities that serve as sinks to attract and engage sophisticated threat actors, and newer malware including new variants and latent threats that are at an earlier stage of development.
The latest edition of the OT/ICS and IoT security Threat Landscape Report 2024 also covers:
State of global ICS asset and network exposure
Sectoral targets and attacks as well as the cost of ransom
Global APT activity, AI usage, actor and tactic profiles, and implications
Rise in volumes of AI-powered cyberattacks
Major cyber events in 2024
Malware and malicious payload trends
Cyberattack types and targets
Vulnerability exploit attempts on CVEs
Attacks on counties – USA
Expansion of bot farms – how, where, and why
In-depth analysis of the cyber threat landscape across North America, South America, Europe, APAC, and the Middle East
Why are attacks on smart factories rising?
Cyber risk predictions
Axis of attacks – Europe
Systemic attacks in the Middle East
Download the full report from here:
https://sectrio.com/resources/ot-threat-landscape-reports/sectrio-releases-ot-ics-and-iot-security-threat-landscape-report-2024/
UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series, part 4DianaGray10
Welcome to UiPath Test Automation using UiPath Test Suite series part 4. In this session, we will cover Test Manager overview along with SAP heatmap.
The UiPath Test Manager overview with SAP heatmap webinar offers a concise yet comprehensive exploration of the role of a Test Manager within SAP environments, coupled with the utilization of heatmaps for effective testing strategies.
Participants will gain insights into the responsibilities, challenges, and best practices associated with test management in SAP projects. Additionally, the webinar delves into the significance of heatmaps as a visual aid for identifying testing priorities, areas of risk, and resource allocation within SAP landscapes. Through this session, attendees can expect to enhance their understanding of test management principles while learning practical approaches to optimize testing processes in SAP environments using heatmap visualization techniques
What will you get from this session?
1. Insights into SAP testing best practices
2. Heatmap utilization for testing
3. Optimization of testing processes
4. Demo
Topics covered:
Execution from the test manager
Orchestrator execution result
Defect reporting
SAP heatmap example with demo
Speaker:
Deepak Rai, Automation Practice Lead, Boundaryless Group and UiPath MVP
Connector Corner: Automate dynamic content and events by pushing a buttonDianaGray10
Here is something new! In our next Connector Corner webinar, we will demonstrate how you can use a single workflow to:
Create a campaign using Mailchimp with merge tags/fields
Send an interactive Slack channel message (using buttons)
Have the message received by managers and peers along with a test email for review
But there’s more:
In a second workflow supporting the same use case, you’ll see:
Your campaign sent to target colleagues for approval
If the “Approve” button is clicked, a Jira/Zendesk ticket is created for the marketing design team
But—if the “Reject” button is pushed, colleagues will be alerted via Slack message
Join us to learn more about this new, human-in-the-loop capability, brought to you by Integration Service connectors.
And...
Speakers:
Akshay Agnihotri, Product Manager
Charlie Greenberg, Host
Essentials of Automations: Optimizing FME Workflows with ParametersSafe Software
Are you looking to streamline your workflows and boost your projects’ efficiency? Do you find yourself searching for ways to add flexibility and control over your FME workflows? If so, you’re in the right place.
Join us for an insightful dive into the world of FME parameters, a critical element in optimizing workflow efficiency. This webinar marks the beginning of our three-part “Essentials of Automation” series. This first webinar is designed to equip you with the knowledge and skills to utilize parameters effectively: enhancing the flexibility, maintainability, and user control of your FME projects.
Here’s what you’ll gain:
- Essentials of FME Parameters: Understand the pivotal role of parameters, including Reader/Writer, Transformer, User, and FME Flow categories. Discover how they are the key to unlocking automation and optimization within your workflows.
- Practical Applications in FME Form: Delve into key user parameter types including choice, connections, and file URLs. Allow users to control how a workflow runs, making your workflows more reusable. Learn to import values and deliver the best user experience for your workflows while enhancing accuracy.
- Optimization Strategies in FME Flow: Explore the creation and strategic deployment of parameters in FME Flow, including the use of deployment and geometry parameters, to maximize workflow efficiency.
- Pro Tips for Success: Gain insights on parameterizing connections and leveraging new features like Conditional Visibility for clarity and simplicity.
We’ll wrap up with a glimpse into future webinars, followed by a Q&A session to address your specific questions surrounding this topic.
Don’t miss this opportunity to elevate your FME expertise and drive your projects to new heights of efficiency.
7. World primary energy demand in t he Reference Scenario: this is unsustainable! 0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000 18 000 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Mtoe Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas Coal Oil World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third of the overall rise
8. Change in oil demand by region in the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 China Middle East India Other Asia Latin America E. Europe/Eurasia Africa OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific mb/d All of the growth in oil demand comes from non-OECD, with China contributing 43%, the Middle East & India each about 20% & other emerging Asian economies most of the rest
9. World oil production by source in the Reference Scenario 64 mb/d of gross capacity needs to be installed between 2007 & 2030 – six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia – to meet demand growth & offset decline 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 mb/d Natural gas liquids Non-conventional oil Crude oil - yet to be developed (inc. EOR) or found Crude oil - currently producing fields
10. The continuing importance of coal in world primary energy demand Increase in primary demand, 2000 - 2007 Demand for coal has been growing faster than any other energy source & is projected to account for more than a third of incremental global energy demand to 2030 Mtoe 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Non-OECD OECD All other fuels Coal Shares of incremental energy demand Reference Scenario, 2006 - 2030 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1 000 Coal Oil Gas Renewables Nuclear 4.8% 1.6% 2.6% 2.2% 0.8% % = average annual rate of growth
11. Cumulative energy-supply investment in the Reference Scenario , 2007-2030 I nvestment of $26 trillion, or over $1 trillion/year, is needed, but t he credit squeeze could delay spending, potentially setting up a supply-crunch once the economy recovers Power generation 50% Transmission & distribution 50% Mining 91% Shipping & ports 9% Exploration and development 80% Refining 16% Shipping 4% Exploration & development 61% LNG chain 8% Transmission & distribution 31% Power 52% $13.6 trillion Oil 24% $6.3 trillion Gas 21% $5.5 trillion Coal 3% $0.7 trillion Biofuels <1% $0.2 trillion
12. Reductions in energy-related CO 2 emissions in the climate-policy scenarios While technological progress is needed to achieve some emissions reductions, efficiency gains and deployment of existing low-carbon energy accounts for most of the savings 20 25 30 35 40 45 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Gigatonnes Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario CCS Renewables & biofuels Nuclear Energy efficiency 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario 54% 23% 14% 9%
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16. Cities are important: The world is becoming more urbanised “… by 2030, cities will house 60% of the world’s population — equivalent to the total global population in 1986” (IEA, 2008) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% OECD North America Latin America OECD Pacific OECD Europe Middle East E. Europe/ Eurasia Asia Africa Urbanisation rate 1980 2006 2030
17. Cities are important: Cities energy use is growing 81% of projected growth in city energy use from non-OECD countries
18. Cities are important: Cities are large energy users In 2006, cities used around 2/3 of global primary energy By 2030, cities use more than 73% of energy 2006 2006 City as a % of global 2015 City as a % of global 2030 City as a % of global 2006-2030* Total Primary Energy Demand 7 908 67% 9 785 69% 12 374 73% 1.9% Coal 2 330 76% 3 145 78% 3 964 81% 2.2% Oil 2 519 63% 2 873 63% 3 394 66% 1.2% Gas 1 984 82% 2 418 83% 3 176 87% 2.0% Nuclear 551 76% 630 77% 726 81% 1.2% Hydro 195 75% 245 76% 330 79% 2.2% Biomass & Waste 280 24% 358 26% 520 31% 2.6% Other Renewables 48 72% 115 73% 264 75% 7.4% Electricity 1 019 76% 1 367 77% 1 912 79% 2.7%
19. Global C ity CO 2 emissions CO2 emissions from cities were 19.8 Gt in 2006 and rises to 30.8 Gt in 2030, increasing faster than global emissions. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2006 2020 2030 Gigatonnes 70% 72% 74% 76% 78% 80% Non-OECD cities OECD cities Share of cities in world (right axis)
Currently 26 member countries – all members of the OECD Two candidate countries (Poland and Slovakia) Two countries not members (Iceland and Mexico) Also work closely with many countries outside of the membership – especially China, India, Russia Also discussions with OPEC Our member countries tell us what to do Each has delegation that works solely with OECD and its entities – energy delegates assigned to IEA, regular contact Committees (Governing Board, but also Oil Markets, Technology, Policy, Global Dialogue) meet several times a year Programme of Work Ministerial meeting every two years WHAT DOES THE IEA DO? Quite simply, we advise our member countries on energy policy HOW DID WE GET STARTED?
RS takes account of those government policies and measures that were enacted or adopted up to mid-2008, but not new ones, providing a baseline against which we can quantify the extent to which we need to change course. World primary energy demand projected in RS grows by 45% from 2006 to 2030, average annual increase of 1.6% per year – driven by rising population and GDP. Demand reaches 17 billion toe in 2030 up from 11.7 btoe in 2006. Demand grows at a slower rate than projected in WEO-2007, mainly due to higher energy prices and slightly slower economic growth - as well as new government policies to curb demand and emissions growth introduced in the past year. All fuels increase in absolute terms: - Oil remains single largest fuel in the global primary energy mix, growing 1% year. - Coal grows fastest among fossil fuels (2% p.a.). - Demand for gas grows 1.8% p.a. - Modern renewable technologies grow most rapidly, by 7.2% p.a. (excl biomass), overtaking gas to become the second-largest source of electricity, behind coal, soon after 2010. These trends are patently unsustainable – economically, socially and environmentally. Rising oil and gas demand would lead to higher imports and reliance on OPEC, heightening concerns about energy sectuiry, while increased use of fossil fuels would worsen climate change. World GDP is assumed to grow by an average of 3.3% per year over the period 2006-2030. This is lower than assumed in last year’s Outlook (3.6%), in part because of the impact of higher energy prices and weaker prospects for global economic growth in the near term. The average IEA crude oil import price is assumed to average $100 per barrel (in real year-2007 dollars) through to 2015 and then rise again slowly thereafter, reaching $110 in 2020 and $122 in 2030 ($206 in nominal terms)
Let’s begin with oil Where is this oil demand growth occurring? In Asia and Middle east. ____________________ Global primary demand for oil (excl biofuels) rises by 1% per year on average, from 85 million barrels per day in 2007 to 106 mb/d in 2030. Its share of world energy use drops, from 34% to 30%. Oil demand in 2030 has been revised downwards by 10 mb/d since last year’s Outlook. All of the projected increase in world oil demand comes from non-OECD countries: - Over four-fifths of increase comes from China, India & Middle East - OECD oil demand falls slightly, due largely to declining non-transport oil demand. “ In 1980, non-OECD accounted for 35% of world oil demand, today for 43% and by 2030 for 58%. In 2015, non-OECD oil demand surpasses OECD.”
Let’s talk about Peak Oil Our economies currently depend on oil And our growing economies need growing oil supplies But oil production is declining in the currently producing fields – around 6.7% per annum (weighted average) in 2007 What will make up the shortfall? New oil discoveries? But our estimates suggest these will only be enough to maintain current production levels – not enough to meet new demand Nonconventional expensive oil production Or, can we have an energy revolution? Promote energy efficiency and renewables? We’ll look at these later. __________________________ Declines in crude oil production at existing fields (those already in production in 2007) mean that the gross additions to capacity far exceed the net additions needed to meet the growth in demand. In fact, our analysis shows that future capacity needs are far most sensitive to decline rates at existing fields than to the rate of growth in demand. Gross additions between 2007 and 2030 amount to 64 mb/d – or six times the current capacity of Saudi Arabia. Two-thirds are needed just to offset declines at existing fields. By 2030, two-thirds of world production will come from new fields, that are either awaiting development today or are yet to to be found. Worldwide, production of conventional crude oil alone increases only modestly, from 70.2 mb/d to 75.2 mb/d. The shares of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional oil (mainly from Canadian oil sands) in total oil production rise substantially.
What about coal? Coal consolidates it position as the world’s 2 nd most important energy source after oil. Since 2000, global coal consumption has grown faster than any other fuel, despite higher prices, by 4.9% per year between 2000 and 2006. Most of this growth occurred in non-OECD countries. [CLICK TO REVEAL RIGHT CHART] In the RS, coal demand advances by 2% a year on average, its share in global energy demand climbing from 26% in 2006 to 29% in 2030. Coal accounts for well over a third of the increase in total energy demand. Non-OECD countries account for 97% of the increase in global coal demand over the Outlook period, with China alone accounting for two-thirds of the increase &India for a further 19%. Most of the increase in demand in all regions comes form power generation. In fact, 85% of the increase in global coal demand comes from the power sector in China & India alone.
The reference scenario looks even more daunting when you consider the huge amount of investment needed to supply the growing energy requirements. Huge inflows of capital are needed to expand supply capacity to meet demand in this scenario rising demand, as well as to replace existing and future supply facilities that will be retired during the projection period. Our Reference Scenario projections call for cumulative investment in energy-supply infrastructure of $26.3 trillion (in year-2007 dollars) over 2007-2030 . This is around $4.4 trillion higher than in WEO-2007, because of an upward revision in assumed unit costs, which have continued to soar in the last year. Of the cumulative investment of $26.3 trillion, 63% is needed in non-OECD countries. More than half of global investment, or $13.6 trillion goes towards the power sector. Oil- and gas-sector investments total $11.7 trillion. Coal-industry investments (not including transportation) are much smaller, totaling less than $730 billion, or 3% of total energy investment. There are major concerns about whether all of this investment will in fact be forthcoming – particularly in the near term in view of the current financial crisis.
So what needs to be done? Lets consider the IPCC’s 4 th Assessment Report - of what is needed to achieve a given climate goal. If we want to achieve CO2 equivalent concentration of 550 ppm 450ppm Our trajectories for energy-related CO2 emissions to 2030 are based both on our own analysis of the energy sector and on other work – such as the IPCC’s 4 th Assessment Report - of what is needed to achieve a given climate goal. Our trajectories are consistent with the corresponding ranges of long-term emissions pathways set out in the IPCC’s report, and imply a need for action in all sectors as well as even more substantial reductions after 2030. The 450 and 550 Policy Scenarios follow a similar trajectory until 2020. This means that the 450 Policy Scenario will initially overshoot the 450 ppm level, before declining – this is necessary, as otherwise emissions would have to peak in 2-3 years. It will take time to agree and implement a global climate change framework – and a substantial proportion of energy emissions are already locked-in. Three quarters of 2020 emissions in the power sector come from plants that already exist today, or are in the process of being built. Both scenarios require a transformation of the energy sector. The 550 Policy Scenario is achieved mainly through the deployment of existing technologies, or incremental improvements to these. There is a change in the energy mix: the power sector sees more renewable energy, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage. In the transport sector, CO2 savings come from enhancement of the internal combustion engine, from more rapid penetration of hybrid cars and lightweight materials and from biofuels. Overall, improved energy efficiency makes the biggest contribution to lowering emissions in both scenarios as shown here. Realising these efficiency gains in the Policy Scenarios is an enormous challenge. This depends on the purchases of efficient technologies, such as clean vehicles, efficient appliances or energy-efficient buildings, by hundreds of millions of households worldwide. As well as even more widespread deployment of existing low-carbon technologies, 450 Policy Scenario can only be achieved through stepped-up research, development and subsequent demonstration and deployment of new technologies, to achieve sharp reductions in emissions after 2020. It assumes extensive deployment of CCS in OECD+ and Major Economies, including retro-fitting. In the transport sector, it requires the introduction of advanced biofuels and the penetration of electric or fuel-cell vehicles.
In WEO 2008 we made detailed global energy demand and CO2 emissions projections through to 2030 for the world’s cities, broken down by fuel and by sector. This work was only possible with the collaboration of a group of experts in the field of energy in cities, some of which are here today, and as far as we know this is the first time a study like this has been made. So what did we find….
Also, the geographic distribution of urban population is set to change: Global urbanisation in the first half of the 20 th century was dominated by European cities, Now, the majority of urban residents today live in Asia,
This increasing global urban population, combined with the increasing wealth of urban residents, and greater access to energy services drives rapidly increasing urban energy demand. In the Reference Scenario, global city energy use is projected to grow by 1.9% per year (compared to an overall global growth rate of 1.6% per year), from 7 900 Mtoe to almost 12 400 Mtoe in 2030. Its share of global energy use rises from 67% to 73%. Non-OECD countries account for 81% of the growth in energy use in cities over the Outlook period.
Urbanisation 2006 ~ 50% 2030 60% 2006 Two thirds energy use (7900 Mtoe) 71% CO2 (developing country city residents switched from CO2 neutral biomass to fossil fuels) 2030 73% energy use (12400 Mtoe) City energy use related to: Population Economic activity Level of income
And this increasing energy demand of course leads to increasing CO2 emissions from cities. In 2006 cities accounted for 19.8 Gt of global CO2 emissions — roughly 71% of global energy-related CO2 emissions The share of global CO2 emissions in cities is higher than that for energy use because as developing countries urbanise, they tend to shift from biomass and waste (assumed to be CO2 neutral) to more CO2-intensive energy sources. In the Reference Scenario, CO2 emissions from cities increase at 1.8% per annum, faster than global CO2 emissions at 1.6%. By 2030, it is projected that almost 30.8 Gt will be emitted in the world’s cities, a 55% increase over 2006 levels by 2030, the equivalent of adding twice the entire emissions of the United States. The share of cities in global CO2-emissions by 2030 is 76%. As is the case for energy use, the vast majority (89%) of CO2-emissions growth in cities through the Outlook period comes from non-OECD countries. Cities in non-OECD countries account for two-thirds of the global CO2 emissions in 2030, up from 53% today.
So what to do? The aim is to build resilient cities I want to draw on work of Buzz Holling and Brian Walker and their notion of ‘Resilience’ Resilience draws attention to tradeoffs between efficiency on the one hand and persistence on the other Four crucial aspects of resilience: Latitude: the maximum amount a system can be changed before losing its ability to recover (before crossing a threshold which, if breached, makes recovery difficult or impossible). Resistance: the ease or difficulty of changing the system; how “resistant” it is to being changed. Precariousness: how close the current state of the system is to a limit or “threshold.” Panarchy: because of cross-scale interactions, the resilience of a system at a particular focal scale will depend on the influences from states and dynamics at scales above and below. For example, external oppressive politics, invasions, market shifts, or global climate change can trigger local surprises and regime shifts.in Resilience in energy systems Anticipate and plan for the future Reduce dependence. – and those on energy in total as well as external energy supplies.
A starting point for local governments needs to be prioritising climate change mitigation actions in their own facilities through energy management and strategic investment. In addition, cities should encourage CCHP, the energy efficiency of buildings, use land-use planning measures such as low-emission zones, congestion charges, and improvements to make public transport more attractive.
Local governments also need to expand the outreach of networks such as ICLEI, Climate Alliance and Energie-Cités. These and other networks can help to pool resources, and know-how. There is an urgent need for national governments to further engage local governments in mitigation action. This engagement can range from providing additional funding to address climate change and providing clear legal requirements to relatively indirect approaches such as guidebooks. Another avenue for enhancing local government action in climate change mitigation is encouraging greater local government participation in international climate change policy processes (Climate Alliance & Energie-Cités 2002). Such involvement can provide cities/local governments with recognition of the value of their on-the-ground policy experience. In the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and Kyoto Protocol processes, local governments currently play a minor role, and the visibility of local-government actions is limited. We can identify three key options for involving cities in the UNFCCC process. As a first step, national governments could invite local and regional representatives in their national delegations. Second, a range of topics ranging from local climate policy, options for national governments to promote local action, and models of multi-level arrangements could be considered at thematic workshops on mitigation and adaptation in the UN process. Third, local and regional activities can be included in national communications. Another promising option could be to directly involve large cities in Non-Annex 1 countries in new approaches discussed in the context of future commitments to be adopted at COP15 December 2009 in Copenhagen, such as the sustainable development policies and measures (SD-PAMs) approach.
To assist governments
Green Municipal Fund (Canada) - Encouraging sustainability at the local level in Canada Klimaatconvenant (Netherlands) – voluntary agreements in the Netherlands Finland : Voluntary Energy Conservation Agreement Hungary: Public Sector Energy Efficiency Programme Switzerland – SwissEnergie New Zealand - “ Legislative and policy requirements” in Land Transport New Zealand (2004)
Mostly top-down, national and international governments initiated most programmes. Mostly voluntary – will these programmes evolve into mandatory ones? Mostly governed by provision - participation is not mandatory, but national government provides incentives to take action. Majority of funding comes from the national/intl. government, even when multiple parties are involved. Challenges capacity building sustainability scaling up evaluation voluntary v. regulations Innovations engaging new players financing innovative ideas learning to collaborate across levels increasing capabilities through training, information sharing reaching jurisdictions outside of sphere of influence addressing social issues (not just climate, economic and security issues)