- The document discusses climate change and the challenges it poses globally, including rising populations, urbanization, energy consumption, and greenhouse gas emissions. - It provides data on topics like population growth, energy use by fuel type in various regions, cumulative emissions by country and continent, and the carbon intensity of economic activity. - The document advocates for solutions like carbon capture and storage from coal-fired power plants to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and help address climate change while still utilizing coal resources.

1. Uniwersytet Otwarty AGH
Krakow, 20 stycznia, 2018
Prof. Józef M. Pacyna
NILU – Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway
AGH University of Science and Technology, Kraków, Poland
Zmiany klimatyczne:
mity czy realia

2. Climate Change: Global challenges
affecting all

3. PopulationPopulationPopulationPopulation
15
12
9
6
0
1200
%Urban
3
Total population % Urban
75
60
45
15
0
30
Populationinbillions
1000
1600
1700
1800
19001950
2025
1500
2050
2000

4. Source: Nakicenovic et al., 2000, figure is on page 233.
Night lights: 2000

5. Source: Nakicenovic et al., 2000, figure is on page 233.
Night lights: 2070

6. Energy consumption by energy type - global
Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2014, with growth rates indicated for the
more recent period of 2010 to 2014 for the globe
Source: BP 2015; Jackson et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

7. Energy consumption by energy type - China
Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2014, with growth rates indicated for the
more recent period of 2010 to 2014 for China
Source: BP 2015; Jackson et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

8. About 27% of the overall power generation in the EU is providedAbout 27% of the overall power generation in the EU is providedAbout 27% of the overall power generation in the EU is providedAbout 27% of the overall power generation in the EU is provided
by coalby coalby coalby coal fired power plantsfired power plantsfired power plantsfired power plants
However, continued technology innovation is needed for coalHowever, continued technology innovation is needed for coalHowever, continued technology innovation is needed for coalHowever, continued technology innovation is needed for coal
to remain competitiveto remain competitiveto remain competitiveto remain competitive
A. Mestre /SYNDEX , A. Jakubowki / S.PARTNERS. ETUC Conference, London, 2009

9. COAL IS THERE !COAL IS THERE !COAL IS THERE !COAL IS THERE !
65%65%

10. Coal technologies are the cheapest in economic termsCoal technologies are the cheapest in economic termsCoal technologies are the cheapest in economic termsCoal technologies are the cheapest in economic terms

11. Current anthropogenic contributionsCurrent anthropogenic contributionsCurrent anthropogenic contributionsCurrent anthropogenic contributions
to greenhouse gasesto greenhouse gasesto greenhouse gasesto greenhouse gases
CFCs & halons
(17%)
Ozone (7%)
Carbon dioxide
(55%)
Nitrous oxide (6%)
Methane (15%)
Fossil fuel
combustion
Ruminants
Rice paddies
Fertilizer runoff
Aerosols
Foam products
Refrigerants
Solvents
Biomass burning
Deforestation

12. Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 35.9 ±±±± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2014, 60% over 1990
Projection for 2015: 35.7 ±±±± 1.8 GtCO2, 59% over 1990
Estimates for 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015 are preliminary
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry

14. Observed emissions and emissions scenarios
The emission pledges submitted to the Paris climate summit avoid the worst effects of climate
change (red), most studies suggest a likely temperature increase of about 3°C (brown)
Over 1000 scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are shown
Source: Fuss et al 2014; CDIAC; Global Carbon Budget 2015

15. Top fossil fuel emitters
The top four emitters in 2014 covered 59% of global emissions
China (27%), United States (15%), EU28 (10%), India (7%)
Bunker fuels are used for international transport is 3.0% of global emissions
Statistical differences are between the global estimates and sum of national totals is 1.1% of global emissions
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

16. World COWorld COWorld COWorld CO2222 emissionsemissionsemissionsemissions
Source: The GuardianSource: The GuardianSource: The GuardianSource: The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2011/jan/31/world-carbon-dioxide-
emissions-country-data-co2#img-1
5.1 % of global total

17. Historical cumulative emissions by country
Cumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement were distributed (1870–2014):
USA (26%), EU28 (23%), China (12%), and India (3%) covering 64% of the total share
Cumulative emissions (1990–2014) were distributed USA (20%), China (19%), EU28 (15%), India (5%)
‘All others’ includes all other countries along with bunker fuels and statistical differences
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

18. Historical cumulative emissions by continent
Cumulative emissions from fossil-fuel and cement (1870–2014)
North America and Europe responsible for most cumulative emissions, but Asia growing fast
The figure excludes bunker fuels and statistical differences
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

19. Carbon intensity of economic activity - global
Financial crises have had little lasting effect on emissions growth
Global carbon intensity has returned to a phase of improvement after stalling for some years
Economic activity is measured in Purchasing Power Parity
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

20. Consumption-based emissions (carbon footprint)
Allocating emissions to the consumption of goods and services provides an alternative
perspective on emission drivers
Consumption-based emissions are calculated by adjusting the
standard production-based emissions to account for international trade
Source: Le Quéré et al 2015; Peters et al 2011; Global Carbon Project 2015

21. Total global emissions
Total global emissions: 39.9 ± 3.8 GtCO2 in 2014, 44% over 1990
Percentage land-use change: 36% in 1960, 19% in 1990, 10% in 2014
Three different methods have been used to estimate
land-use change emissions, indicated here by different shades of grey
Source: CDIAC; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015

22. 9.5±2.9 GtCO2/yr
30%
Fate of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (2005-2014 average)
Source: CDIAC; NOAA-ESRL; Houghton et al 2012; Giglio et al 2013; Le Quéré et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2015
26%
10.9±1.8 GtCO2/yr
33.0±1.6 GtCO2/yr 91%
3.4±1.8 GtCO2/yr 9%
16.0±0.4 GtCO2/yr
44%
Calculated as the residual
of all other flux components
Sources
Partitioning

24. Atmospheric concentration
The global CO2 concentration increased from ~277ppm in 1750 to 397ppm in 2014 (up 43%)
Mauna Loa registered the first seasonally-corrected monthly mean over 400 ppm in 2015
Globally averaged surface atmospheric CO2 concentration. Data from: NOAA-ESRL after 1980;
the Scripps Institution of Oceanography before 1980 (harmonised to recent data by adding 0.542ppm)
Source: NOAA-ESRL; Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Global Carbon Budget 2015

25. 78°54’ N, 11°53’E, 474 m.a.s.l.
Kongs-
fjorden
Isfjorden
Ny-Ålesund
Longyearbyen
Spitzbergen
Spitzbergen Zeppelin Station
Address: Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard

26. Monitoring programme Ny-Ålesund
Pollution
Surface ozone
Main components
Hg (gas, particles, reactive)
As,Cd,Cr,Co,Cu,Pb,Mn,Ni,V,Zn
210Lead
POPs (PCB, HCH/B,DDT,PAH..)
POPs (passive campaign)
222Radon
Climate parameters
Meteorologi
CH4
CFCs, HCFCs, HFCs
CO, (H2)
CO2
CH4, CO, H2, N2O, SF6, CO2 (flask)
Trace gasses (FTIR)
Ozone & UV
Stratospheric ozone
total ozone
UV index
NO2 column
Particles
Black carbon
Black carbon
AOD (Sun Photometer)
Total aerosol number density
(OPC)
Size distribution (DMPS)
Volatile properties (V-TDMA)
Light absorption (PSAP)
Light scatter (nephelometer)
Aerosol vertical distribution (lidar)
NILU, Stockholm Univ, NOAA, INT Greece, Env Canada, Univ. of Heidelberg, FMI, AWI

27. 0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Mtoe
Other renewables
Hydro
Nuclear
Biomass
Gas
Coal
Oil
World energy demand expands by 45% between now and 2030 – an average
rate of increase of 1.6% per year – with coal accounting for more than a third
of the overall rise
World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario:World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario:World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario:World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario:
this is unsustainable!this is unsustainable!this is unsustainable!this is unsustainable!this is unsustainable!this is unsustainable!this is unsustainable!this is unsustainable!
IEA WEO 2008IEA WEO 2008IEA WEO 2008IEA WEO 2008

28. Total power generation capacity today and in 2030Total power generation capacity today and in 2030Total power generation capacity today and in 2030Total power generation capacity today and in 2030
by scenarioby scenarioby scenarioby scenario
In the 450 Policy Scenario, the power sector undergoes a dramatic change –
with CCS, renewables and nuclear each playing a crucial role
0 1 000 2 000 3 000
Other renewables
Wind
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal and gas with CCS
Gas
Coal
GW
1.2 x today
1.5 x today
13.5 x today
2.1 x today
1.8 x today
12.5 x today
15% of today’s coal & gas capacity
Today Reference Scenario 2030 450 Policy Scenario 2030

29. World average
~30%
~1116 gCO2/kWh
~38%
~881 gCO2/kWh
EU average
~45%
~743 gCO2/kWh
High performance
PC/IGCC
~50%
~669 gCO2/kWh
700 oC blocks
CCS
<2020
VGB 2007; efficiency – HHV,net
gCO2/kWh
Increase of efficiency results in significant effects, but only CCS leads to
real CO2 emission reduction
CO2 emission reduction as a result of
technological changes
significant reduction
possible only with
But: efficiency loss of 10-12 %
21 %
33 %
40 %
90 %
we are here

30. COCOCOCO2222 and theand theand theand the EUEUEUEU
• Possibility of CO2 reduction by 20% or even 30%
• Currently the world CO2 emission is about 28 bilion tons/year
of which EU accounts for about 3 billion tons/year (about 10%)
• The need for global action, otherwise the CO2 will increase by 2030 to 50
billion tons
• No rules in many countries outside EU
• Acute EU policy in the subject of CO2 can lead to deterioration of
competitivness and relocation of production outside EU, where standards
are less restrictive

31. © IEA Clean Coal Centre www.iea-
coal.org.uk
Coal use in China, India and South Africa
Subcrit
PCC
SC/USC
PCC
FBC IGCC
China X X X X
India X (X) X X
South
Africa
X (X)
Power generation:
•Shanghai, 900 MW SC units
•Fuyang Huaren, 660 MW SC units
Sipat power plant, India

32. © IEA Clean Coal Centre www.iea-
coal.org.uk
Nordjylland 3, Denmark – highlights
• Most efficient coal-fired plant
• Operating net efficiency 47% LHV, power only mode/44.9% HHV (not annual)
• High steam conditions 29 MPa/582°C/580°C/580°C at boiler by early use of new
materials (P91)
• Large number of feedwater heating stages
• Double reheat has prevented LP blade erosion
• Very low emissions and full waste utilisation
• NOx abatement Combustion measures and SCR
• Particulates removal ESP
• Desulphurisation Wet FGD
USC, tower boiler, tangential corner firing,
int. bituminous coals, cold sea water

33. CCS applied to a modern conventional power plant could reduce CO 2
emissions to the atmosphere by approximately 80-90% compared
to a plant without CCS
CCS applied to a modern conventional power plant could reduce CO 2
emissions to the atmosphere by approximately 80-90% compared
to a plant without CCS
What is the solution?What is the solution?What is the solution?What is the solution?

34. © IEA Clean Coal Centre www.iea-coal.org.uk
Carbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storageCarbon capture and storage
Capture
Transport
Storage
Three Options;
• Post-combustion
• Pre-combustion
• Oxyfuel Two Options;
• Pipelines
• Ships
Three Options;
• Coal seams, 40 Gt CO2
• Oil and gas fields, 1,000
Gt CO2
• Deep saline aquifers – up
to 10,000 Gt CO2

35. FUTURE COAL-FIRED PLANTFUTURE COAL-FIRED PLANT
CO2 separation after
combustion process
Combustion
in oxygen atmosphere
CO2 separation
before combustion process
ZERO-EMISSION PLANTS WITH CO2 SEPARATION
Image source: Vattenfall

36. 36
Oxy-combustion in PC and CFB boilers
CFB, PC
STEAM
CYCLE
ASU
CO2 sequestration
possible conceptions:
chemical absorption
physical absorption
membrane techniques
cryogenic separation
INTEGRATION

37. Sorbent based on ash from coal power stationSorbent based on ash from coal power stationSorbent based on ash from coal power stationSorbent based on ash from coal power station

38. PRO_CCS:PRO_CCS:PRO_CCS:PRO_CCS:
Economically efficient and socially acceptedEconomically efficient and socially acceptedEconomically efficient and socially acceptedEconomically efficient and socially accepted
CCS/EOR processesCCS/EOR processesCCS/EOR processesCCS/EOR processes
Source:Bellona.org Source:subseaworldnews.com
LCA will focus on the comparison between shippingLCA will focus on the comparison between shippingLCA will focus on the comparison between shippingLCA will focus on the comparison between shipping
and pipelines for COand pipelines for COand pipelines for COand pipelines for CO2222 transport to storage sitestransport to storage sitestransport to storage sitestransport to storage sites
LCA will also compare post-combustion carbon
capture in CHP/PC power plant or an industrial
installation, and without CO2 capture

39. Industrial CO2
emitters
CO2 transport by ship
CO
2 transport
by
pipelines
Offshore CCS/EOR
systems
Produced
oil
CO2
Storage sites which may be
used as a relief for EOR
CO2 ready for transport
CO2 ready for transport
Producedoil
Oil
This project is funded from Norway Grants in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme operated by the
National Centre for Research and Development
Economically efficient and socially
accepted CCS/EOR processes

40. This project is funded from Norway Grants in the Polish-Norwegian Research Programme operated by the
National Centre for Research and Development 40
EOR site selection

41. Risks from CCS
DirectDirectDirectDirect –––– Depends on the technologyDepends on the technologyDepends on the technologyDepends on the technology
•Post combustion:Post combustion:Post combustion:Post combustion:
•Solvents (amines or equivalent) and
degradation products (NH3 and VOC)
emitted to air or water
•Toxicity and carcinogenic effects
•Eutrophication and acidification
•Pre combustionPre combustionPre combustionPre combustion
•NOx enriched due to combustion
characteristics – concern in urban areas
•DeNOx installation required, resulting in
NH3 emissions - eutrophication
•OxyOxyOxyOxy----fuelfuelfuelfuel
•Oxygen and Nitrogen –asphyxiation risk
IndirectIndirectIndirectIndirect –––– Resulting from EnergyResulting from EnergyResulting from EnergyResulting from Energy
penaltypenaltypenaltypenalty
•More coal combustedMore coal combustedMore coal combustedMore coal combusted
•Combustion products increased
•Upstream and downstream emissionsUpstream and downstream emissionsUpstream and downstream emissionsUpstream and downstream emissions
increasedincreasedincreasedincreased
•More coal mined/transported (fuel
combustion and material
consumption increased)
•Increased waste processing – extra
waste from all processes, e.g. from
amine waste sludge
•Increased Hg in waste
•Additional resources usedAdditional resources usedAdditional resources usedAdditional resources used
•Water and land

42. CCS Energy Penalty
Source: Koornneef, J., et al.,Source: Koornneef, J., et al.,Source: Koornneef, J., et al.,Source: Koornneef, J., et al., The environmental impact and risk assessment of CO2 capture,
transport and storage - An evaluation of the knowledge base. Progress in Energy and
Combustion Science, 2012. 38383838(1): p. 62-86.

43. BackgroundBackgroundBackgroundBackground
http://www.ieapower.com/solar-power-installation/http://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/subtopics/wind/ https://www.iea.org/topics/renewables/subtopics/hydropower/
http://www.fires-gas.com/energy-ideas/different-types-of-fossil-
fuels.html
http://www.undeerc.org/pcor/household-energy/electricity/
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2016/08/06/crude-oil-
prices-stabilize-after-worst-month-in-a-year/
2020 Climate and Energy Package2020 Climate and Energy Package2020 Climate and Energy Package2020 Climate and Energy Package 2030 Climate and Energy Framework2030 Climate and Energy Framework2030 Climate and Energy Framework2030 Climate and Energy Framework
At least 27 % share renewables by 203020 % share renewables by 2020

44. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Electricity_generated_from_renewable_energy_sources,_EU-28,_2004%E2%80%9314_YB16.png
Renewable Electricity in Europe (EURenewable Electricity in Europe (EURenewable Electricity in Europe (EURenewable Electricity in Europe (EU----28), 200428), 200428), 200428), 2004----2014201420142014

45. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-
explained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewables_in_gross_final_energy_consumption,_2014_and_2
020_(%25)_YB16.png
Renewable Share (%) in Europe, 2014 and 2020 TargetsRenewable Share (%) in Europe, 2014 and 2020 TargetsRenewable Share (%) in Europe, 2014 and 2020 TargetsRenewable Share (%) in Europe, 2014 and 2020 Targets

46. http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-
explained/index.php/File:Share_of_renewable_energy_in_fuel_consumption_of_transport,_2014_(
%25)_YB16.png
Rewewable Share (%) in Transport (Europe), 2014Rewewable Share (%) in Transport (Europe), 2014Rewewable Share (%) in Transport (Europe), 2014Rewewable Share (%) in Transport (Europe), 2014

47. SummarySummarySummarySummary
• Some way to go toSome way to go toSome way to go toSome way to go to
meet targets.meet targets.meet targets.meet targets.
• Comparison ofComparison ofComparison ofComparison of
energy types canenergy types canenergy types canenergy types can
be complicated,be complicated,be complicated,be complicated,
leading toleading toleading toleading to
confusion.confusion.confusion.confusion.
• Impacts/risksImpacts/risksImpacts/risksImpacts/risks
need to beneed to beneed to beneed to be
understood, oftenunderstood, oftenunderstood, oftenunderstood, often
casecasecasecase----bybybyby----casecasecasecase
basis.basis.basis.basis.
• Policy making (andPolicy making (andPolicy making (andPolicy making (and
incentives) key toincentives) key toincentives) key toincentives) key to
success.success.success.success.
http://www.proprofs.com/flashcards/story.php?title=physics-topic-8-energy-power-
climate-change

48. • Production of biogas from meat industry wastes and
agriculture residues. Purification of biogas
• Catalytic pyrolysis of biomass for production of biofuels
• Liquefaction of lignin and algae into pulp mills and oil
refineries
• Bioenergy from sewage using various technologies
• Production of synthetic gasoline (e.g. from glycerol)
Selected priorities in bioenergy area:Selected priorities in bioenergy area:Selected priorities in bioenergy area:Selected priorities in bioenergy area:
innovative bioenergy solutionsinnovative bioenergy solutionsinnovative bioenergy solutionsinnovative bioenergy solutions

49. 12700 m3 of wastes
Biological
process
Biomass
distillation
Pyrolysis of
solid residue
0,93 mln m3 CH4
0,11 mln m3 CH4
0,35 mln m3 CH4
1,38 mln m3 CH4
gross
0,06 mln m3 CH4
System power
supply
Biogas plant
13,2 mln m3 CH4
netto
5 GWh
electricity
4,1 GWh
heat (steam)
0,9 GWh
Residual heat
10 GWh
gross
Energetic Part
Energy balance (An example)

50. New, highly efficient combustion technologies are needed to produce
electricity and heat (new blocks with supercritical vapor conditions, co-
generation, hybrid systems, etc).
Carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced through the
implementation of pre-combustion, post-combustion methods, or
combustion in oxygen.
CCS technologies should be implemented mainly in new power stations
(storage of carbon monoxide should be resolved).
Co-control technologies should be employed to reduce emissions of
various contaminants, such as mercury (e.g. various adsorbers).
Cost of the above technologies should not lead to deterioration of
competitivness and relocation of energy production outside EU, where
standards are less restrictive.
Can coal combustion be environment friendly?Can coal combustion be environment friendly?Can coal combustion be environment friendly?Can coal combustion be environment friendly?
YES, it can, BUT:YES, it can, BUT:YES, it can, BUT:YES, it can, BUT:

51. • Combustion of fossil fuels for production of electricity and
heat will play less important role in the future
• Renewable energy sources will replace partly the role of fossil
fuel combustion in the future
• Future projects on bioenergy shall increase, economic
feasibility, resource efficiency, environmental capability,
positive social impacts and public acceptance of bioenergy
pathways and concepts
• Waste –to-energy technologies would play an important role
in future energy production and safe waste management
Concluding remarksConcluding remarksConcluding remarksConcluding remarks

53. Thank you for your attention
Emission reductions are achievableEmission reductions are achievable

57. The Greenhouse gases