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World Energy Scenarios 2016 (preliminary)
The document summarizes key findings from the World Energy Council's Global Scenario Study. It presents 3 scenarios for global energy development to 2060: Modern Jazz, Unfinished Symphony, and Hard Rock. The scenarios differ in assumptions around economic growth, policies, and technologies. Key findings include: 1) world primary energy growth peaks before 2030 due to new efficiencies, 2) electricity demand doubles requiring major infrastructure, 3) wind and solar continue rapid growth, 4) coal and oil demand peaks may create stranded resources, 5) decarbonizing transport is very challenging, and 6) a 2°C target requires unprecedented global cooperation and carbon pricing. The study was conducted by PSI using its Global MARKAL energy systems model
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World Energy Scenarios 2016 (preliminary)
- 1. WIR SCHAFFEN WISSEN– HEUTE FÜR MORGEN Highlights from the Global Scenario Study of the World Energy Council in partnership with PSI T. Kober, E. Panos :: Energy Economics Group :: Paul Scherrer Institut Workshop at the 70th semi-annual ETSAP meeting, Madrid, 17.11.16
- 2. Energy scenarios ofPSI and WEC Page 2 2011 2013 2016 Global transport scenarios 2050 World energy scenarios to 2050 World energy scenarios to 2060 http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2011/global-transport-scenarios-2050/ http://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2013/world-energy-scenarios-composing-energy-futures-to-2050/ https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/2016/world-energy-scenarios-2016-the-grand-transition/
- 3. • The Congressin Istanbul: More than 9000 participants, including head of states and CEOs More than 80 countries represented PSI present with 3 representatives World Energy Scenarios 2016 launched at the 23d World Energy Congress in Istanbul Page 3 • WEC hosts the World Energy Congress, enabling dialog among Ministers, CEOs and industry experts • It is the world‘s largest energy event covering all aspects of energy agenda • So far the congress has been stated in 21 cities in the world
- 4. • Evolutions ofkey scenario drivers are expressed in coherent storylines of future economic and social developments • Scenario storylines quantified by PSI using its Global MARKAL Model (GMM) Scenario quantification framework Page 4 Scenario Population demographic transitions, timing GDP patterns of economic develop- ment, structural change, catch-up, dematerialisation Resource availability Policies GMM ModelTechnological Development uptake / discovery of new technologies, improvements to existing Energy Service Intensity/Efficiency Storyline Quantification Energy system configuration Fuel & Technology mix • Final energy consumption • Primary energy supply • Electricity generation mix • etc. Capacity expansion plan • Upstream sector • Refineries • Electricity sector • Hydrogen production • etc. Emission levels Energy system cost
- 5. • Represents indetail the energy system of a region from resource extraction to energy end uses • Includes more than 400 technologies with their technical-economic characteristics • Cost optimization of the energy system over the period of 2010 – 2100 • Non-cost and behavioral assumptions are modeled as side-constraints Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM) Page 5
- 6. • 15 worldregions, some of which corresponding to single countries • Separation criteria of the regions: Current economic sizes and expected development Fossil fuel resources Intra-regional economic/social/cultural integration, geography, political situation Global Multi-regional MARKAL model (GMM) Page 6
- 7. For the WorldEnergy Scenarios aggregated results are reported for the 8 WEC regions Page 7 NAM LAC (Latin America, Caribbean) EUROPE E-ASIA (East Asia) P-ASIA (South-East Asia, Pacific) MENA AFRICA C-ASIA (South-Central Asia)
- 8. Main assumptions ofthe three WEC scenarios Page 8 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock • Open economies • Affordable energy for all • Global convergence • Climate focused policies • Fragmented economies • Energy security policies Goals Economic growth GDP growth: 3.3% p.a GDP growth: 2.9% p.a GDP growth: 1.7% p.a Population Global population reaches 10 billion by 2060 Energy efficiency Increases based on markets Promoted by governments Reflects historical trends Renewables • Wind & solar supported • Hydro limited support Climate change mitigation policies promote renewables Energy security policies drive renewables Nuclear & CCS Low acceptance by markets and consumers Climate change mitigation policies favor them Energy security policies drive nuclear deployment Unconv. oil & gas Expanded opening of markets Regulation (for water use, market access) Expanded due to energy security policies Electric vehicles R&D on batteries decreases costs Climate change mitigation policies favor them Not a priority
- 9. • Energy consumptionin less developed regions doubles from today’s level • Asia accounts for more than 2/3 of the primary energy growth globally • The energy demand in emerging regions is sensitive to the scenarios’ assumptions Volatility on economic conditions, cost of energy and local resource exploration Regional contribution to primary energy Page 9 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 1990 2013 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Primaryenergyconsumption(EJ/yr) Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East & North Africa Latin America & Caribbean South East Asia & Pacific East Asia South & Central Asia North America Europe
- 10. Globally, per capitaprimary energy consumption peaks before 2030 Page 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 World Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard rock Primaryenergypercapita(GJ/capita)
- 11. 11% 23% 29% 37% 5% 22% 24% 50% Global primary energysupply Page 11 2013 2060 568 EJ 715 EJ 634 EJ 767 EJ Nuclear Biomass Hydro Other renewable energy Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 29% 31% 21%19% Coal Oil Gas Non-fossil energy 5% 10% 2% 1% 7% 16% 3% 10% 13% 20% 4% 13% 9% 11% 3% 7% 29% 31% 21% 19% 17% 28% 24% 30%
- 12. • Peaking around2030 • Shift towards unconventional production (North America) in the medium term (2030) • Middle East remains at high level Oil production Page 12 Annualoilproduction(EJ) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld Modern Jazz Hard Rock Modern Jazz Hard Rock 2010 2030 2060 unconventional conventional
- 13. • Significant productionincrease in Asia, South America and Africa • Shift towards unconventional production (North America) in the medium term (2030) Natural gas production Page 13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld MiddleEast,NorthAfrica NorthAmerica Europe(incl.Russia) RestofWorld Modern Jazz Hard Rock Modern Jazz Hard Rock 2010 2030 2060 unconventional conventional Annualgasproduction(EJ)
- 14. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony HardRock 2013 2060 PWh/y Other Geothermal Solar Wind Biomass (with CCS) Biomass Hydro Nuclear Gas (with CCS) Gas Oil Coal (with CCS) Coal Global electricity generation Page 14 67% 40% 20% 45% 13% 10% 17% 15% 20% 50% 63% 40% Renewable energy Nuclear energy Fossil energy 2013 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock 2060 times two Shares of total generation
- 15. In addition torenewable energy - importance of nuclear and CCS in Unfinished Symphony Page 15 0 2 4 6 8 10 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 PWh/y Coal (with CCS) Coal 0 2 4 6 8 10 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 PWh/y Gas (with CCS) Gas 0 2 4 6 8 10 2013 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 PWh/y Nuclear
- 16. Europe North America South &Central Asia East Asia Southeast Asia & Pacific South America Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa • CCS becomes increasingly important under climate change mitigation ambition • Maximum annual global CO2 capture: 5 Gt CO2 Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) Page 16 In total*: 47 Gt In total*: 89 Gt Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony *cumulative quantities of CO2 captured for the period until 2060
- 17. • In future,capacity additions for renewable energy technology higher than historic annual capacity additions for fossil fuels New global capacity investments in the power sector Page 17 Averageannualnewcapacityadditions(GW/yr) N.B. Bars represent cross-scenario averages. Historical data correspond to 2000-2010, except for nuclear energy (1980-1990) and are assembled from: EPIA (2012), GWEC (2013), IEA-CCS (2012) and Platts (2013). 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Coal Gas Nuclear Wind Solar Coal(withCCS) Coal Gas(withCCS) Gas Nuclear Biomass Wind Solar Historical 2011-2060 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock
- 18. 7817 6895 638512611 3049 2488 2546 2899 Europe North America South &Central Asia East Asia Southeast Asia & Pacific South America Middle East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Coal 3530 1625 4231 Oil 348 265 404 Gas 9836 8114 7631 Nuclear 2287 3535 3212 Hydropower 2775 3385 2737 Biomass 2482 3276 2257 Wind 12175 12943 8808 Solar 7660 10202 6615 Others 858 1343 616 Total 40953 44690 36512 Global cumulative power generation investments (2011-2060, billion USD2010 undiscounted) Page 18 Unfinished Symphony
- 19. • Switch fromfossil fuel based applications to electricity in particular relevant if stringent climate targets need to be met Increasing electrification of the final energy demand Page 19 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Modern Jazz Unfinished Symphony Hard Rock Shareofelectricityoftotalfinalenergydemand
- 20. Global final energyconsumption Page 20 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 EJ/y Modern Jazz 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 EJ/y Unfinished Symphony Other (e) Biomass & Biofuels (d) Heat Electricity Gas Oil Coal (c) Finalenergyconsumption(EJ/y)
- 21. Oil 67% Gas 7% Biofuels16% Electricity 8% Others 3% Oil 92% Gas 4% Biofuels 3% Electricity 1% Others 0% Oil 60% Gas 6% Biofuels 21% Electricity 10% Others 3% Fuel consumption in transport in 2013 and 2060 Page 21 2013 108 EJ Modern Jazz 144 EJ Unfinished Symphony 131 EJ Hard Rock 164 EJ Oil 78% Gas 7% Biofuels 10% Electricity 4% Others 1%
- 22. • Changes intransport starkly reflected in the car fleet • Fleet grows substantially from 1.1 bn units in 2013, to a range of 2.8-3.0 bn vehicles globally in 2060 across all three scenarios • Global car fleet in 2060: Diversification in the car stock Page 22
- 23. • Modern Jazzon track for +3oC temperature increase in 2100 from pre-industrial levels • Unfinished Symphony slightly above +2oC • Hard Rock on track for 3.5 - 4oC Global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion Page 23 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 CO2emissions(GtCO2) Hard Rock: +5% compared to 2014 Modern Jazz: -28% compared to 2014 Unfinished Symphony: -61% compared to 2014
- 24. • The 2000Wsociety is an environmental vision introduced in 1998 by ETH Zurich • It pictures the average “First World” citizen reducing its primary energy usage to no more than 48 kWh per day by the year 2050, without lowering the living standard Can we achieve the vision of a 2000W society? Page 24 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300 2400 2500 2600 1970 2000 2030 2060 PrimaryenergyconsumptrioninWattper capita World Average Modern Jazz Grand Symphony Hard Rock 2000 Watt society 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Jazz Symphony Hard Rock 1990 2013 2060 PrimaryenergyconsumptioninWattper capita «First World» Average Europe North America
- 25. 1. Dampened worldprimary energy growth and a peaking in per capita energy before 2030 due to unprecedented efficiencies created by new technologies and tightening policies 2. Demand for electricity to double to 2060, meeting this demand with cleaner energy sources requires substantial infrastructure investments and system integration to deliver benefits to all consumers 3. Wind and solar continue to grow at an unprecedented rate and create new opportunities and challenges for energy systems 4. Demand peaks for coal and oil may create “Stranded Resources” 5. Transitioning global transport forms one of the hardest obstacles to overcome in order to decarbonise future energy systems 6. 2C climate target will require an exceptional and enduring effort, far beyond already pledged commitments, and with very high carbon prices 7. Global cooperation, sustainable economic growth, and technology innovation are needed to balance the Energy Trilemma Seven key findings Page 25
- 26. PSI team forWorld Energy Scenarios 2016 & acknowledgements Page 26 Evangelos Panos Kathrin Volkart Tom Kober Stefan Hirschberg Post-doctoral fellow - Energy systems analysis with the Global MARKAL Model (GMM) - Macro-economic drivers - Energy technology & resources - Energy access - Energy security PhD researcher - Energy resources - Energy systems analysis Head Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis - Scientific advise Head Energy Economics Group - PSI project lead - Energy systems analysis - Stakeholder involvement The PSI World Energy Scenario Team is deeply grateful to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (BfE) and the Swiss Energy Council for their support.!
- 27. Page 27 Wir schaffenWissen – heute für morgen PSI Energy Economics: www.psi.ch/eem