Presentation to the Shropshire Hills AONB Partnership




Credit Crunch
Energy Crunch
Climate Crunch
From ‘Why Should We?’...
Good Morning!
Climate Change + Energy Security + Finite Fossil Fuel
                     = The Same Actions
West Midlands
population: 5.3 million
   CO2 : 50 million
       tonnes
West Midlands
population: 5.3 million
   CO2 : 50 million
       tonnes




                          Nigeria
            ...
quot;Regardless
      of which route we
     choose, the world's
    current predicament
  limits our maneuvering
        ...
3Ds
Demand Reduction
Decarbonisation
Decentralisation
Decarbonisation by 2020
Options……..
 Onshore wind
 Offshore wind
 Biomass with solid
 recovered fuels (waste!)
 Carbon cap...
=
x 476
=
    x 10,000
Fuels used in E generation/Mtoe
Fuel               2003   2007
Coal               31.6   31.9
Oil                0.7    0....
Cost of Renewables
Technology           £ million/MW

Onshore wind (big)   1.1

Offshore wind        2.3

Hydro           ...
‘To ensure we achieve maximum efficiency from all of our renewable energy projects we
need to remove some of the existing ...
‘Earlier this year we
published our draft
Renewable Energy Strategy.
What is clear to me is not
only the scale of that
cha...
EU 20/20/20 by 2020
• UK Target = 15% of all energy from renewables by
  2020 (cf 1.5% currently)
• Suggested that to meet...
The heart of the matter   DEMAND REDUCTION
• In 2003 final consumption of E was 336,218GWh
• In 2007 final consumption of ...
Challenge: What can we say YES to?
• How to reduce the carbon emissions
  from the AONB (Shropshire, West
  Midlands) by 8...
“In the past, we didn’t understand the effect
  of our actions. Unknowingly, we sowed the
  wind and now, literally, we ar...
Don’t just stand there, do something!
thank you
Doesn't the dirty back-up power required when the wind stops blowing
mean that the CO2 saving is wiped out?
This rather bi...
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008
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Shropshire Hills Aonb Presentation 21st October 2008

  1. 1. Presentation to the Shropshire Hills AONB Partnership Credit Crunch Energy Crunch Climate Crunch From ‘Why Should We?’ to ‘How Can We?’ Richard Davies Director
  2. 2. Good Morning!
  3. 3. Climate Change + Energy Security + Finite Fossil Fuel = The Same Actions
  4. 4. West Midlands population: 5.3 million CO2 : 50 million tonnes
  5. 5. West Midlands population: 5.3 million CO2 : 50 million tonnes Nigeria population: 140 million CO2 : 52 million tonnes Sources: WDM, IEA
  6. 6. quot;Regardless of which route we choose, the world's current predicament limits our maneuvering room. We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to population growth and economic development, and Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.quot; Jeroen van der Veer, CEO Shell 28th January 2008
  7. 7. 3Ds Demand Reduction Decarbonisation Decentralisation
  8. 8. Decarbonisation by 2020 Options…….. Onshore wind Offshore wind Biomass with solid recovered fuels (waste!) Carbon capture & storage Nuclear power
  9. 9. = x 476
  10. 10. = x 10,000
  11. 11. Fuels used in E generation/Mtoe Fuel 2003 2007 Coal 31.6 31.9 Oil 0.7 0.8 Gas 24.5 27.5 Nuclear 20.0 14.0 Hydro 0.2 0.4 Other renewables 0.4 0.6 Net imports 0.2 0.4
  12. 12. Cost of Renewables Technology £ million/MW Onshore wind (big) 1.1 Offshore wind 2.3 Hydro 3.0+??? Other technologies 4.0+???
  13. 13. ‘To ensure we achieve maximum efficiency from all of our renewable energy projects we need to remove some of the existing barriers to deployment. In the past, suppliers have been critical over the cost & length of time it takes for planning permission to be granted. While it is essential we maintain the democratic, participatory nature of our planning system, we must balance that with wider national policy and industry needs.’ Malcolm Wicks, Minister of State for Energy DBERR
  14. 14. ‘Earlier this year we published our draft Renewable Energy Strategy. What is clear to me is not only the scale of that challenge but also the urgency of getting on with delivery.’ ‘The Renewables Obligation has tripled supply in the last five years and we are making further changes in its structure, in planning policy and in access to the grid.’ Ed Miliband Secretary of State for Energy & Climate Change, 16th October 2008
  15. 15. EU 20/20/20 by 2020 • UK Target = 15% of all energy from renewables by 2020 (cf 1.5% currently) • Suggested that to meet this some 36% of electricity will come from wind by 2020 (onshore & offshore) • ~36% of Electricity = 123,120,000,000 kWh/annum • Or 46,849 MW of wind needed by 2020 (BWEA say 33,000 MW) • Equal to 15,000 x 3MW turbines • 3,750 MW/annum • 1,250 x 3MW turbines/annum • Or 5 per day (weekends off!) for the next 12 years • 2007 saw UK deliver 450 MW (need a 9 fold increase in rate of deployment compared with last year)
  16. 16. The heart of the matter DEMAND REDUCTION • In 2003 final consumption of E was 336,218GWh • In 2007 final consumption of E was 341,945GWh • Up 1.7% or 5,727GWh • All wind projects (on and offshore) in 2007 generated some 5,274GWh of E • This was just 92% of the extra electricity we used over 48 months ending 2007 • Simplistically we are collectively squandering the efforts to DECARBONISE because we are failing to reduce DEMAND
  17. 17. Challenge: What can we say YES to? • How to reduce the carbon emissions from the AONB (Shropshire, West Midlands) by 80% by 2050. • Year on year 4% reduction • West Midlands carbon dioxide emissions went up 2.1% 2005 to 2006
  18. 18. “In the past, we didn’t understand the effect of our actions. Unknowingly, we sowed the wind and now, literally, we are reaping the whirlwind. But we no longer have that excuse: now we do recognise the consequences of our behaviour. Now surely, we must act to reform it: individually & collectively; nationally & internationally.” David Attenborough “Search all the parks in all your cities; you'll find no statues of committees.” David Ogilvy 1911-1999
  19. 19. Don’t just stand there, do something!
  20. 20. thank you
  21. 21. Doesn't the dirty back-up power required when the wind stops blowing mean that the CO2 saving is wiped out? This rather bizarre claim is increasingly commonly made by anti-wind campaigners The national grid needs back-up regardless of wind power because it is needed for all forms of energy generation to cover unexpected increases in demand (a cold snap in winter, England playing football on television, etc). In fact, one of the biggest back-up requirements on the system these days is because of Sizewell B nuclear power station. When it fails (as it has done recently due to safety concerns) it knocks out a huge amount of capacity in an instant - unlike wind, where any variation is both gentle and predictable. Only when there is a very large capacity of wind on the system (above 10%) will the variability of the wind become noticeable over the normal variation on the system. Only then will any of the required back-up be specifically due to wind power, and only at this point could any carbon emissions from back-up plant be counted against wind power. In fact, it is widely accepted that only very minor levels of back-up would be needed even if wind were to account for 20% wind of the generating capacity on the grid system. Under current government policies this level of wind power is not likely to be achieved until after 2020. In terms of emissions, even if the back-up was provided by the dirtiest option (coal power), with 10% wind power on the system, only 1% of the CO2 saved by the wind would be emitted from the back-up, and 99% would be saved. Coal, of course, is not the only option for back-up - gas is about half as quot;dirtyquot;, and both hydro-power and biomass are renewable forms of energy that can perform the same function. In the future a wide range of renewable energy technologies would complement one another and offer the chance for completely secure and completely clean energy system, including both primary generation and back-up.

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