This document summarizes the results of an Ipsos MORI Political Monitor survey conducted in April 2017. Key findings include:
- If a general election were held, 49% would vote Conservative compared to 26% for Labour, giving the Conservatives a 23 point lead.
- Conservative voters are more firmly decided than Labour or Liberal Democrat voters. Brexit, healthcare, and the economy are top issues for voters.
- Theresa May is seen as the most capable Prime Minister over Jeremy Corbyn by 61% to 23%.
- The Conservatives are seen as having the best policies on Brexit, the economy, immigration and education, while Labour leads on healthcare.
2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3. 3Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
49%
26%
4%
1%
13%
7%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote
in General Elections = 821. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE.
Voting Intention
45%
27%
3%
2%
14%
9%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +18
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +23
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
4. 4Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jun15
Jul15
Aug15
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
2015 General Election
23 point
lead
Highest Conservative
campaign lead that
we’ve measured
(previous was 22pts
in May 1983)
5. 5Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Oct03
Apr04
Oct04
Apr05
Oct05
Apr06
Oct06
Apr07
Oct07
Apr08
Oct08
Apr09
Oct09
Apr10
Oct10
Apr11
Oct11
Apr12
Oct12
Apr13
Oct13
Apr14
Oct14
Apr15
Oct15
Apr16
Oct16
Apr17
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: October ‘03 – April ‘17
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
6. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 6
Voting decisions
7. 7Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE ………. PARTY OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY
CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All giving a General Election Voting intention 859 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Labour and Lib Dem vote softer than Conservatives
60
43
21
36
40
56
78
63
Liberal Democrat
supporters
Labour supporters
Conservative
supporters
Overall
MAY CHANGE MIND DEFINITELY DECIDED
8. Political Monitor | April2017 | FINAL | Public | 8
I want you to think about what it
is that most attracted you to ……..
party. Some people are attracted
mainly by the policies of the party,
some by the leaders of the party
and some because they identify
with the party as a whole. If you
had a total of ten points to
allocate according to how
important each of these was to
you, how many points would you
allocate to the leaders of the party
you intend voting for, how many
to its policies, and how many to
the party as a whole? Please bear
in mind that the total of all your
points should add up to ten.
Vote drivers – the political triangle
Base: All giving a General Election voting intention 859 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
4.3
2.6
3.0
3.7
3.1 3.0
Policies Leaders Parties
Apr-15 Apr-17
Mean score – April 2015 - April 2017
9. 9Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
IF YOU HAD A TOTAL OF TEN POINTS TO ALLOCATE ACCORDING TO HOW IMPORTANT EACH OF THESE
WAS TO YOU, HOW MANY POINTS WOULD YOU ALLOCATE TO THE LEADERS OF THE PARTY YOU INTEND
VOTING FOR, HOW MANY TO ITS POLICIES, AND HOW MANY TO THE PARTY AS A WHOLE? PLEASE BEAR
IN MIND THAT THE TOTAL OF ALL YOUR POINTS SHOULD ADD UP TO TEN.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All giving a General Election Voting intention 859 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
What drives voters – leader, party, or policy?
3.5
3.2 3.4 3.2
3
3.9 3.8
2.6 2.5
2.6
3.1
4.4 4.4
4.1 4.2
4.7
4
3.8
4.1
4.3
4.3
3.7
2.1 2 2.3
2.4
2.1
2.1
2.2
3.3 3.2
3 3
0
1
2
3
4
5
Oct-86
Apr-87
Oct-87
Apr-88
Oct-88
Apr-89
Oct-89
Apr-90
Oct-90
Apr-91
Oct-91
Apr-92
Oct-92
Apr-93
Oct-93
Apr-94
Oct-94
Apr-95
Oct-95
Apr-96
Oct-96
Apr-97
Oct-97
Apr-98
Oct-98
Apr-99
Oct-99
Apr-00
Oct-00
Apr-01
Oct-01
Apr-02
Oct-02
Apr-03
Oct-03
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
LEADERS POLICIES PARTY
10. 10Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S
THERESA MAY, OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017 *In May 2015 asked as: Who do you think would make the most capable Prime Minister,
David Cameron, Ed Miliband or Nick Clegg?
Most capable Prime Minister
61
23
1
1
6
7
MAY
CORBYN
OTHER
NO DIFFERENCE
NEITHER / NONE
DON’T KNOW
April 2017
61
52
48
23
12
16
Theresa May and
Jeremy Corbyn
May 2017
Tony Blair and
William Hague
May 2001
Margaret Thatcher
and Michael Foot
May 1983
Highest ratings for May, Thatcher and
Blair that we’ve measured
11. 11Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH, IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH PARTY TO VOTE FOR?* (UNPROMPTED)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Most important issues to the vote
42
31
21
18
17
14
8
10
7
47
24
35
19
16
8
9
Europe / EU / Brexit
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
Education/schools
Managing the economy/economic situation
Asylum and immigration
Taxation
Poverty / inequality
Don’t Know
Apr-17 Apr-15
12. 12Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
48%
25%
52%
36%
39%
39%
20%
17%
40%
17%
28%
19%
28%
46%
12%
8%
6%
9%
10%
8%
8%
3%
2%
2%
1%
9%
1%
3%
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP
WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON…. THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
Conservatives lead on four out of five issues most
Handling Britain’s future
relationship with the
European Union
Healthcare
Managing the economy
Education
Asylum and immigration
Taxation
Poverty / inequality
Importance ranking
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
Conservative lead
+31
-15
+35
+7
+20
+11
-26
important to voters
13. 13Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
28%
32%
24%
52%
39%
26%
31%
35%
35%
15%
18%
22%
5%
9%
7%
5%
7%
8%
1%
3%
3%
3%
3%
8%
Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
Crime and any-social
behaviour
Defence
Benefits
Housing
Pensions
Overseas aid
Importance ranking
=12th
=11th
10th
=11th
8th
13th
Conservative lead
-3
-3
-11
+37
+21
+4
WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON…. THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Best party on other issues
14. 14Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON HEALTHCARE, THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR,
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
Labour keep lead on healthcare
25%
3%0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan78
Jul78
Jan79
Jul79
Jan80
Jul80
Jan81
Jul81
Jan82
Jul82
Jan83
Jul83
Jan84
Jul84
Jan85
Jul85
Jan86
Jul86
Jan87
Jul87
Jan88
Jul88
Jan89
Jul89
Jan90
Jul90
Jan91
Jul91
Jan92
Jul92
Jan93
Jul93
Jan94
Jul94
Jan95
Jul95
Jan96
Jul96
Jan97
Jul97
Jan98
Jul98
Jan99
Jul99
Jan00
Jul00
Jan01
Jul01
Jan02
Jul02
Jan03
Jul03
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
Jan14
Jul14
Jan15
Jul15
Jan16
Jul16
Jan17
8%
40%
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
13 point
lead
15 point
lead
15. 15Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON MANAGING THE ECONOMY, THE
CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
Conservatives’ best rating since 1990 on economic policies
2%
17%
52%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan90
Jul90
Jan91
Jul91
Jan92
Jul92
Jan93
Jul93
Jan94
Jul94
Jan95
Jul95
Jan96
Jul96
Jan97
Jul97
Jan98
Jul98
Jan99
Jul99
Jan00
Jul00
Jan01
Jul01
Jan02
Jul02
Jan03
Jul03
Jan04
Jul04
Jan05
Jul05
Jan06
Jul06
Jan07
Jul07
Jan08
Jul08
Jan09
Jul09
Jan10
Jul10
Jan11
Jul11
Jan12
Jul12
Jan13
Jul13
Jan14
Jul14
Jan15
Jul15
Jan16
Jul16
Jan17
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
18 point
lead
35 point
lead
16. 16Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON ASYLUM AND IMMIGRATION, THE
CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
Conservatives’ best ratings on asylum/immigration since 2005
19%
39%
10%
9%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Oct16
Jan17
Apr17
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
4 point gap
20 point
lead
17. 17Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
WHICH PARTY DO YOU THINK HAS THE BEST POLICIES ON EDUCATION, THE CONSERVATIVES, LABOUR,
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS OR SOME OTHER PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
Conservatives’ best ratings on education since 1983
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM
29%
36%
9%
1%0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar77
Sep77
Mar78
Sep78
Mar79
Sep79
Mar80
Sep80
Mar81
Sep81
Mar82
Sep82
Mar83
Sep83
Mar84
Sep84
Mar85
Sep85
Mar86
Sep86
Mar87
Sep87
Mar88
Sep88
Mar89
Sep89
Mar90
Sep90
Mar91
Sep91
Mar92
Sep92
Mar93
Sep93
Mar94
Sep94
Mar95
Sep95
Mar96
Sep96
Mar97
Sep97
Mar98
Sep98
Mar99
Sep99
Mar00
Sep00
Mar01
Sep01
Mar02
Sep02
Mar03
Sep03
Mar04
Sep04
Mar05
Sep05
Mar06
Sep06
Mar07
Sep07
Mar08
Sep08
Mar09
Sep09
Mar10
Sep10
Mar11
Sep11
Mar12
Sep12
Mar13
Sep13
Mar14
Sep14
Mar15
Sep15
Mar16
Sep16
Mar17
8 point gap
7 point lead
18. 18Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
20%
37%
18%
34%
24%
27%
44%
31%
36%
35%
18%
19%
29%
52%
34%
55%
39%
43%
40%
29%
38%
33%
34%
57%
51%
37%
Handling Britain’s future relationship with the European Union
Healthcare
Managing the economy
Education
Asylum and Immigration
Taxation
Poverty and inequality
Pensions
Benefits
Housing
Defence
Crime and anti-social behaviour
Overseas aid
Corbyn
May
WHICH PARTY LEADER DO YOU TRUST MOST ON……
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
May most trusted leader on most issues
19. 19Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
52%
34%
55%
39%
43%
40%
29%
38%
33%
34%
57%
51%
37%
48%
25%
52%
36%
39%
39%
20%
28%
32%
24%
52%
39%
26%
Handling Britain’s future relationship with the European Union
Healthcare
Managing the economy
Education
Asylum and Immigration
Taxation
Poverty and inequality
Pensions
Benefits
Housing
Defence
Crime and anti-social behaviour
Overseas aid
May
Conservative party
WHICH PARTY LEADER DO YOU TRUST MOST ON……
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
May outperforms Conservative party on many issues
20. 20Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
20%
37%
18%
34%
24%
27%
44%
31%
36%
35%
18%
19%
29%
17%
40%
17%
29%
19%
28%
46%
31%
35%
35%
15%
18%
22%
Handling Britain’s future relationship with the European Union
Healthcare
Managing the economy
Education
Asylum and Immigration
Taxation
Poverty and inequality
Pensions
Benefits
Housing
Defence
Crime and anti-social behaviour
Overseas aid
Corbyn
Labour
WHICH PARTY LEADER DO YOU TRUST MOST ON……
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: Each area was asked of approximately half the sample c.500 British adults 18+ 21st – 25th April 2017
Corbyn’s ratings similar to Labour on most issues
21. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 21
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
22. 22Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
21%
50%
29%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
46%
47%
7%
56%37%
7%
27%
62%
11%
+3%
swing from March
2017
+3%
swing from March
2017
+4%
swing from March
2017
+1.5%
swing from March
2017
+7.5%
swing from March
2017
+19 Net -35 Net -29 Net -7 Net -1 Net
SATISFIED 56% SATISFIED 27% SATISFIED 21% SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 46%
DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 62% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 47%
30%
37%
32%
23. 23Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. In February 2016 data for Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron was not collected
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Aprl 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
MAY CORBYN FARRON NUTTALL
56%
27%
30%
21%
24. 24Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
25. 25Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
Corbyn
26. 26Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction)
56%
37%
7%
April 2017 August 2016 – April 2017
SATISFIED 56%
DISSATISFIED 37%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = +19
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
27. 27Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 401 Conservative supporters 18+ , 21st – 25th April 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
95%
3%
2%
April 2017
SATISFIED 95%
DISSATISFIED 3%
DON’T KNOW 2%
Net = +92
August 2016 – April 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
28. 28Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
27%
62%
11%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
SATISFIED 27%
DISSATISFIED 62%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = -35
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
April 2017 September 2015 – April 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
29. 29Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
53%
36%
11%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
SATISFIED 53%
DISSATISFIED 36%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = +17
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 219 Labour supporters 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
April 2017 September 2015 – April 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
30. 30Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
30%
37%
32%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
SATISFIED 30%
DISSATISFIED 37%
DON’T KNOW 32%
Net = -7
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
April 2017 September 2015 – April 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
31. 31Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
67%
22%
11%
SATISFIED 67%
DISSATISFIED 22%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = +45
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 129 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Tim Farron (satisfaction among Lib Dem supporters)
April 2017
32. 32Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Paul Nuttall(satisfaction)
March 2017
21%
50%
29%
SATISFIED 21%
DISSATISFIED 50%
DON’T KNOW 29%
Net = -29
April 2017
14%
51%
35% SATISFIED 14%
DISSATISFIED 51%
DON’T KNOW 35%
Net = -37
33. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 33
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
34. 34Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
28%
24%
40%
8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Oct-15
Aprl-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
IMPROVE 28%
STAY THE SAME 24%
GET WORSE 40%
DON’T KNOW 8%
EOI = -12
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,004 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
Economic Optimism Index
April 2017
35. 35Political Monitor | April 2017 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Aug1997
Dec1997
Apr1998
Aug1998
Dec1998
Apr1999
Aug1999
Dec1999
Apr2000
Aug2000
Dec2000
Apr2001
Aug2001
Dec2001
Apr2002
Aug2002
Dec2002
Apr2003
Aug2003
Dec2003
Apr2004
Aug2004
Dec2004
Apr2005
Aug2005
Dec2005
Apr2006
Aug2006
Dec2006
Apr2007
Aug2007
Dec2007
Apr2008
Aug2008
Dec2008
Apr2009
Aug2009
Dec2009
Apr2010
Aug2010
Dec2010
Apr2011
Aug2011
Dec2011
Apr2012
Aug2012
Dec2012
Apr2013
Aug2013
Dec2013
Apr2014
Aug2014
Dec2014
Apr2015
Aug2015
Dec2015
Apr2016
Aug2016
Dec2016
Apr2017
-12