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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: March 2017

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Satisfaction with the Chancellor has fallen since November, according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. The new poll, based on fieldwork after the Budget (but before yesterday’s announcement of a U-turn on National Insurance contributions for the self-employed) reveals that satisfaction with the Chancellor has fallen five points since November to 34%, while 46% of the British public are dissatisfied with him (up 18 points).

These ratings are similar to George Osborne’s after his first year (36% satisfied, 45% dissatisfied in March 2011), although Mr Osborne’s ratings had dropped to 27% satisfied, 60% dissatisfied by March 2016. Among Conservative supporters, 60% are satisfied with Mr Hammond, and 26% dissatisfied.

Published in: News & Politics
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: March 2017

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORI March 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 43% 30% 6% 4% 13% 4% HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 745. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE. Voting Intention 40% 31% 6% 4% 14% 5% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +13 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep03 Mar04 Sep04 Mar05 Sep05 Mar06 Sep06 Mar07 Sep07 Mar08 Sep08 Mar09 Sep09 Mar10 Sep10 Mar11 Sep11 Mar12 Sep12 Mar13 Sep13 Mar14 Sep14 Mar15 Sep15 Mar16 Sep16 Mar17 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: August ‘03 – March ‘17 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  5. 5. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  6. 6. 6Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 14% 51% 35% Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 . Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron were asked on a split sample 517 and 515 British adults 18+ respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 38% 54% 7% 52%39% 8% 23% 64% 13% -2% swing from February 2017 -1.5% swing from February 2017 -9.5% swing from January 2017 0% swing from January 2017 +1% swing from February 2017 +13 Net -41 Net -37 Net -10 Net -16 Net SATISFIED 52% SATISFIED 23% SATISFIED 14% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 38% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 64% DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 36% DISSATISFIED 54% 26% 36% 38%
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. In February 2016 data for Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron was not collected Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Mar 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 MAY CORBYN 52% 23% 26%* 14%*
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2017) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present) Corbyn
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction) 52% 39% 8% March 2017 August 2016 – March 2017 SATISFIED 52% DISSATISFIED 39% DON’T KNOW 8% Net = +13 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 349 Conservative supporters 18+ , 10th – 14th March 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters 90% 7% 4% March 2017 SATISFIED 90% DISSATISFIED 7% DON’T KNOW 4% Net = +83 August 2016 – March 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 23% 64% 13% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 SATISFIED 23% DISSATISFIED 64% DON’T KNOW 13% Net = -41 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) March 2017 September 2015 – March 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 42% 52% 6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 52% DON’T KNOW 6% Net = -10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 270 Labour supporters 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) March 2017 September 2015 – March 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 26% 36% 38% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 SATISFIED 26% DISSATISFIED 36% DON’T KNOW 38% Net = -10 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 515 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Tim Farron (satisfaction) March 2017 September 2015 – March 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 517 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Paul Nuttall(satisfaction) January 2017 18% 36% 46% SATISFIED 18% DISSATISFIED 36% DON’T KNOW 46% Net = -18 March 2017 14% 51% 35% SATISFIED 14% DISSATISFIED 51% DON’T KNOW 35% Net = -37
  16. 16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  17. 17. 17Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 22% 24% 50% 4% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Mar-06 Oct-06 Jun-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 IMPROVE 22% STAY THE SAME 24% GET WORSE 50% DON’T KNOW 4% EOI = -28 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Economic Optimism Index March 2017
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jul1997 Nov1997 Mar1998 Jul1998 Nov1998 Mar1999 Jul1999 Nov1999 Mar2000 Jul2000 Nov2000 Mar2001 Jul2001 Nov2001 Mar2002 Jul2002 Nov2002 Mar2003 Jul2003 Nov2003 Mar2004 Jul2004 Nov2004 Mar2005 Jul2005 Nov2005 Mar2006 Jul2006 Nov2006 Mar2007 Jul2007 Nov2007 Mar2008 Jul2008 Nov2008 Mar2009 Jul2009 Nov2009 Mar2010 Jul2010 Nov2010 Mar2011 Jul2011 Nov2011 Mar2012 Jul2012 Nov2012 Mar2013 Jul2013 Nov2013 Mar2014 Jul2014 Nov2014 Mar2015 Jul2015 Nov2015 Mar2016 Jul2016 Nov2016 Mar2017 -28
  19. 19. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19 Budget
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public ON BALANCE DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: IN THE LONG TERM, THIS GOVERNMENT’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE THE STATE OF BRITAIN’S ECONOMY Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Does the government have the right policies for 47 39 47 49 50 46 53 48 43 44 Mar-12 Mar-15 Nov-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 AGREE DISAGREE Britain’s economy?
  21. 21. 21Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 34% 46% 20% CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Phillip Hammond (satisfaction) SATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 46% DON’T KNOW 20% Net = -12 39% 28% 34% SATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 28% DON’T KNOW 34% Net = +11 March 2017 November 2016
  22. 22. 22Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 66% 44% 67% 52% 45% 45% 34% 39% 44% 42% 37% 39% 36%37% 18% 31% 17% 24% 28% 38% 34% 52% 44% 56% 45% 42% 48% 52% 34% 41% 55% 57% 48% 46% 49% 47% 42% 32% 28% 36% 40% 36% 38% 28%27% 47% 43%44% 35% 40% 27% 39% 34% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-76 Mar-77 Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-82 Jun-83 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Dec-93 Dec-94 Nov-95 Dec-95 Nov-96 Dec-96 Jul-97 Feb-98 Mar-98 Mar-99 Feb-00 Mar-00 Jul-00 Sep-00 Nov-00 Mar-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-04 Nov-05 Feb-06 Dec-06 Apr-07 Mar-08 Mar-10 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Mar-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PHILLIP HAMMOND IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Satisfaction with the Chancellor - trends Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone % saying ‘satisfied’ Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne Hammond
  23. 23. 23Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Budget reaction 33 38 39 42 For you personally For the country GOOD THING BAD THING
  24. 24. 24Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Budget reaction 33% 35% 45% 43% 25% 39% 40% 38% 35% 60% Mar-17 Mar-16 Jul-15 Apr-14 Apr-12 GOOD THING BAD THING For you personally
  25. 25. 25Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS 2017 BUDGET THIS WEEK/ LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Budget reaction GOOD THING BAD THING For the country 38% 30% 46% 48% 33% 42% 53% 44% 33% 53% Mar-17 Mar-16 Jul-15 Apr-14 Apr-12
  26. 26. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 26 Brexit
  27. 27. 27Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor GOOD JOB BAD JOB 36% 33 37% 49% 51% 52% 53 48% 40% 35% The Government March 2017 The Government (December 2016) (The Government November 2016) Theresa May March 2017 Theresa May (December 2016) Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union
  28. 28. 28Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain 5% 29% 4% 35% 27% VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL 11% 33% 5% 28% 23% Confident 34% Not confident 62% Theresa May March 2017 David Cameron February 2016 Confident 44% Not confident 51%
  29. 29. 29Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public 26% 26% 14% 17% 18% IN A SPEECH ABOUT THE UPCOMING NEGOTIATIONS OVER BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM AND FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, THERESA MAY SAID “NO DEAL FOR BRITAIN IS BETTER THAN A BAD DEAL FOR BRITAIN.” TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THIS STATEMENT? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Is no deal better than a bad deal for Britain? Agree 52% Disagree 35% STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE
  30. 30. 30Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public IN THE NEGOTIATIONS OVER BRITAIN’S FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION, HOW IMPORTANT, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK IT IS FOR THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT TO ACHIEVE EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT TRY TO ACHIEVE THIS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 Priorities for Britain’s future relationship with the EU ESSENTIAL VERY IMPORTANT FAIRLY IMPORTANT NOT VERY IMPORTANT NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT SHOULD NOT TRY TO ACHIEVE THIS DON’T KNOW 18% 15% 27% 25% 28% 34% 20% 25% 19% 15% 14% 9% 6% 5% 3% 8% 6% 5% 7% 7% 2% For Britain to make no further contributions to the EU budget after Britain leaves For Britain to remain in the single market For Britain to have full control over its immigration policy
  31. 31. 31Political Monitor | March 2017 | Final | Public NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? ASKED IN MAY AS: IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Brexit and standard of living Base: 1,032 British adults 18+, 10th – 14th March 2017 7% 9% 13% 8% 11% 12% 11% 10% 46% 39% 24% 40% 19% 24% 24% 20% 10% 12% 25% 17% 7% 4% 4% 5% May-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Mar-17 A LOT BETTER A LITTLE BETTER NO DIFFERENCE A LITTLE WORSE A LOT WORSE DON’T KNOW
  32. 32. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 32 March 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

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