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How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. ...
2How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
3How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
4How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
5How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
6How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
7How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
8How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
9How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monit...
10How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
11How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
12How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
13How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
14How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
15How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
16How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
17How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
18How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
19How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Turnout estimates
 As we have no...
20How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
21How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
22How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
23How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
24How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
25How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
26How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
27How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
28How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Moni...
How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. ...
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How Britain voted in the 2017 election

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As we have for every general election since 1979, Ipsos MORI has produced estimates of how the voters voted in 2017. Here are the key findings from the results.

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How Britain voted in the 2017 election

  1. 1. How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORI estimates How the voters voted in the 2017 election
  2. 2. 2How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted by gender – overall men and women had similar voting patterns 44% 43% 40% 42% 7% 8% 2% 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Male Female Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  3. 3. 3How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor The change since 2015 was also similar by gender 6% 6% 11% 9% -1% 0% -12% -11% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% Male Female Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP +/-changein%estimatedvotesharesince2015
  4. 4. 4How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted by age – the biggest age gap we’ve seen since our estimates started in 1979 27% 27% 33% 43% 51% 61%62% 56% 49% 40% 34% 25% 5% 9% 10% 7% 7% 7% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  5. 5. 5How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Change since 2015 by age: there was a swing to Labour among under 44s, and a swing to the Conservatives among over 55s -1% -6% -2% 7% 14% 14% 20% 20% 14% 8% 3% 3% 1% 2% 0% -1% -2% -1% 7% -9% -8% -12% -12% -13%-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP +/-changein%estimatedvotesharesince2015
  6. 6. 6How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Young women were even more likely to vote Labour than young men 36% 30% 40% 56% 18% 24% 37% 58% 52% 54% 42% 30% 73% 58% 46% 27% 5% 8% 8% 6% 5% 10% 8% 8% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. Men Women CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  7. 7. 7How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted by social class – best score for Labour among ABC1s since our data series began in 1979, best score for the Conservatives among C2DEs 47% 44% 45% 38%37% 40% 41% 47% 10% 7% 6% 5% 1% 2% 2% 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% AB C1 C2 DE Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  8. 8. 8How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Since 2015, swing to Labour among ABC1s. Among C2DEs, Conservative vote share up even more than Labour, UKIP down substantially 2% 2% 13% 12% 11% 12% 9% 6% -2% -1% 0% 0% -6% -9% -17% -14% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% AB C1 C2 DE Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP +/-changein%estimatedvotesharesince2015
  9. 9. 9How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Broadly similar voting patterns by gender within class 50% 43% 45% 36% 43% 44% 45% 38% 34% 40% 41% 48% 40% 40% 42% 47% 10% 8% 5% 4% 11% 7% 7% 6% 1% 2% 3% 5% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. Men Women CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  10. 10. 10How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Since 2015, both men and women ABC1s have swung to Labour 4% 1% 14% 11% -1% 3% 11% 11%10% 14% 9% 8% 12% 10% 9% 5% -1% 0% 0% 0% -1% -1% 0% 1% -8% -10% -19% -13% -4% -8% -16% -15% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. Men Women CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP +/- change in % estimated vote share since 2015
  11. 11. 11How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted: class patterns seen within age, age patterns seen within class 31% 27% 27% 18% 45% 38% 40% 27% 61% 60% 59% 49% 52% 58% 62% 70% 38% 43% 44% 55% 24% 25% 28% 37% 10% 7% 6% 4% 11% 8% 5% 6% 10% 7% 6% 5% 1% 1% * 4% 1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. 18-34 35-54 55+ CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP % estimated vote share
  12. 12. 12How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted by housing tenure: renters strongly Labour, home- owners Conservative, mortgage holders split 55% 43% 26% 31%30% 40% 57% 54% 7% 9% 4% 7% 2% 2% 4% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Owned Mortgage Social renter Private renter Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  13. 13. 13How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Since 2015, both Conservatives and Labour increased share among all groups, private renters and mortgage holders swung more to Labour. 9% 4% 8% 3% 7% 8% 8% 15% -2% 0% 1% 1% -13% -8% -15% -10% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Owned Mortgage Social renter Private renter Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP +/-changein%estimatedvotesharesince2015
  14. 14. 14How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted by ethnicity – Labour keeps strong lead among BME voters 45% 19% 39% 73% 8% 6% 2% * 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% White All BME Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  15. 15. 15How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Since 2015, Labour increased share among both white and BME voters, but Conservatives lost ground among BME voters 6% -4% 11% 8% 0% 2% -12% -2% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% White All BME Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP +/-changein%estimatedvotesharesince2015
  16. 16. 16How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted: education level is another clear dividing line 52% 46% 33% 35% 39% 48% 4% 6% 12% 4% 2% * 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% No qualifications Other qualifications Degree or higher Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  17. 17. 17How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor How Britain voted: Conservative and Labour both held on to most of their 2015 vote, but LibDems only kept half of theirs. Six in ten UKIP voters switched Conservative, most 2015 non-voters went Labour 87% 7% 15% 60% 27% 8% 88% 30% 16% 60% 3% 3% 51% 1% 5% * * * 18% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP Did not vote (exc. too young) Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  18. 18. 18How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Conservatives won among 2016 Leave voters, Labour won among 2016 Remainers and those who did not vote 26% 65% 23% 54% 24% 66% 13% 2% 4% * 4% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Remain Leave Did not vote (exc. too young) Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP %estimatedvoteshare
  19. 19. 19How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Turnout estimates  As we have noted before, estimating turnout is one of the hardest challenges when relying solely on survey data. Despite the changes we have introduced to our methodology since 2015, which we believe have made our samples more representative, polls may still be more likely to interview politically engaged people than those who are disengaged, people may over-estimate their likelihood of voting, and they may think they are registered when in fact they are not. For post-election analysis we have the advantage of knowing how many people turned out in the end, but we still have to identify them in our data on the basis of the answers they gave before the election. This means that the turnout estimates given here should be treated with particular caution, including taking into account the voter validation results from the British Election Study when these are published (in previous elections these have shown a similar pattern to our estimates).  The turnout figures in these charts express turnout as a % of all resident adults, which is what our sample is based on. This gives a figure lower than the “official turnout” figures usually used, which is a % of the number of names on the electoral register (as not everyone in Britain is registered, and some people may be registered twice even though they can only vote once). The two measures should not be confused. We have also provided a figure for all those registered in the full analysis on our website, however for the reasons expressed here we believe the figures based on all adults are both more reliable and more meaningful.
  20. 20. 20How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Older people are still more likely to vote than younger people 54% 55% 56% 66% 71% 71% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+ Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  21. 21. 21How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor However the turnout gap has narrowed (which started in the 2016 EU referendum) – young people were more likely to vote in GE2017 than 2015 38% 53% 54% 47% 54% 55% 58% 64% 56% 67% 69% 66% 72% 76% 71% 74% 73% 71% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  22. 22. 22How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Social classes ABC1 remain more likely to vote than classes C2DE 69% 68% 60% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% AB C1 C2 DE Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  23. 23. 23How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Turnout among social classes C1C2 slightly higher than in GE2015 71% 74% 69% 64% 68% 68% 56% 62% 60% 51% 57% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 AB C1 C2 DE Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  24. 24. 24How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Owner-occupiers more likely to vote than renters 70% 68% 52% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Owned Mortgage Social renter Private renter Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  25. 25. 25How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Trends in turnout by tenure 72% 75% 70% 64% 70% 68% 51% 54% 52% 45% 53% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 Owner Mortgage Social renter Private renter Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  26. 26. 26How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Turnout was highest among graduates 60% 61% 69% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% No Qualifications Other Qualifications Degree or higher Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  27. 27. 27How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor White voters were more likely to vote than BME voters 64% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% White All BME Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  28. 28. 28How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor However the turnout gap between white and BME voters narrowed this year 63% 68% 64% 47% 47% 53% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017 White All BME Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the population profile of Great Britain. %estimatedturnoutamongalladults
  29. 29. How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 29 Ipsos MORI estimates How the voters voted in the 2017 election

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