With just one week to go until the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union Ipsos MORI finds Leave with a six point lead over Remain. When excluding the “don’t knows” and those not registered, and using our standard turnout filter 53% say they will vote for Britain to leave the EU while 47% say they will vote to remain.

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© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
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1
Ipsos MORI
June 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. 3Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote
in General Elections = 743. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this
is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
Voting Intention
34%
36%
11%
4%
8%
7%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +1
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
35%
34%
10%
4%
9%
8%

4. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4
EUROPE

5. 5Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
47%
53%49%51%
ALL
ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY
LIKELY TURNOUT
QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF
THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 / 979 all registered to vote and 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/depends vote in general
elections
European Referendum voting intention
REMAIN
LEAVE
QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?
all expressing an opinion

6. 6Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
43%
49%
3%
5%
43%
45%
5%
2%4%
ALL
ALL REGISTERED TO VOTE AND FILTERED BY
LIKELY TURNOUT
QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF
THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016 / 979 all registered to vote and 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/depends vote in general
elections
European Referendum voting intention
REMAIN
LEAVE
UNDECIDED
WOULD NOT VOTE
REFUSED
QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?

7. 7Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS
THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016
Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?
57% 58%
63% 64%
69%
73%
79%
40% 39%
35% 33%
28% 25%
20%
3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Oct
2015
Nov
2015
Dec
2015
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
Apr
2016
May
2016
Jun
2016
DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

8. 8Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
AND SINCE APRIL, HAVE YOU CHANGED YOUR MIND ON HOW YOU WILL VOTE IN THE
REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EU?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
Changed mind on voting intention since April?
YES, HAVE CHANGED MIND NO, HAVE NOT CHANGED MIND DON’T KNOW
15%
83%
2%

9. 9Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
THINKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP, WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING OUTCOMES DO YOU THINK IS MOST LIKELY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
Public’s view on the most likely outcome
BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO REMAIN A
MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION DON’T KNOW
62%
26%
12%
47%
38%
15%
FEB 2016 JUNE 2016

10. 10Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
13
7
6
10
9
9
7
15
33
28
11
7
5
6
7
8
11
12
28
33
Don’t know
Nothing/none
The ability to travel in the European Union
Britain’s ability to trade with countries in the European
Union
The cost of EU immigration on Britain’s welfare system
The impact on British jobs
Impact on public services/housing
Britain’s ability to make its own laws
The impact on Britain’s economy
The number of immigrants coming into Britain
Jun-16
May-16
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON JUNE 23RD, WHICH,
IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?
AND WHICH OF THESE ISSUES, IF ANY, THAT YOU MENTIONED IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU
DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Issues important to EU voting
Unprompted – top responses only
Base: 1,257 British adults 18+, 11th – 14th June 2016

11. 11Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
IF BRITAIN VOTES TO STAY IN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, DO YOU THINK YOUR LIFE IN FIVE
YEARS’ TIME WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE THAN IT IS NOW, OR WILL IT BE NO DIFFERENT?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
Life after the referendum
18%
45%
28%
9%
BETTER WORSE NO DIFFERENT DON’T KNOW
31%
23%
32%
14%
STAY IN LEAVE

12. 12Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
FROM THE FOLLOWING, PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU THINK THEY ARE MOSTLY TELLING THE TRUTH
ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF BRITAIN STAYED IN OR LEFT THE EUROPEAN UNION, OR ARE
THEY MOSTLY TELLING LIES.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
How truthful are the campaigns?
19
31
30
46
46
47
17
13
12
17
11
12
Politicians from both the Leave and Remain
campaign
Politicians from the Leave campaign
Politicians from the Remain campaign
MOSTLY TELLING THE TRUTH MOSTLY TELLING LIES
TELL TRUTH AND LIES
EQUALLY DON’T KNOW

13. 13Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE OR FALSE ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF
BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE/REMAIN WITHIN THE EU?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Belief in claims made during the campaigns
48
45
28
40
45
62
12
10
10
Britain would be made to pay billions of
pounds in bailouts for eurozone
countries in the future
Turkey will be fast-tracked into the
European Union and their population of
75 million people will have the right to
free movement to the UK
There will be a higher risk of sex attacks
on women by migrants
Base: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
If Britain votes to remain
TRUE FALSE DON’T KNOW

14. 14Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING IS TRUE OR FALSE ABOUT WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF
BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE/REMAIN WITHIN THE EU?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Belief in claims made during the campaigns
32
21
17
59
61
70
9
18
13
The peace and stability on our continent
will be put at risk
The stability of Northern Ireland will be
put at risk
UK households will lose £4,300 per year
and will be made permanently poorer
Base: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
If Britain votes to leave
TRUE FALSE DON’T KNOW

15. 15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public
COULD YOU PLEASE TELL ME IF YOU’VE HEARD OF THE FOLLOWING CLAIM? IF YOU HAVEN’T HEARD IT PLEASE
SAY SO. BRITAIN SENDS £350 MILLION A WEEK TO THE EUROPEAN UNION
AND DO YOU BELIEVE THIS CLAIM TO BE TRUE OR FALSE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,257 British adults 18+ 11th – 14th June 2016
Public opinion on veracity of Britain sending
78%
21%
1%
YES, HAVE
HEARD THIS
NO, HAVE NOT
HEARD THIS DON’T KNOW
47%
39%
14%
HEARD OF IT TRUE OR FALSE?
£350 million a week
TRUE FALSE DON’T KNOW

16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
16
June 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR