Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2017

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
POLITICAL
MONITOR
MAY 2017

3Political Monitor | May 2017 | Final | Public
49%
34%
2%
3%
7%
4%
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,053 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th May 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote
in General Elections = 786. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE.
Voting Intention
46%
37%
2%2%
7%
5%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +9
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +15
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jun15
Jul15
Aug15
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
2015 General Election
15 point
lead

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Nov03
May04
Nov04
May05
Nov05
May06
Nov06
May07
Nov07
May08
Nov08
May09
Nov09
May10
Nov10
May11
Nov11
May12
Nov12
May13
Nov13
May14
Nov14
May15
Nov15
May16
Nov16
May17
2015 General Election
Miliband
elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn
elected
(Sept 15)
May
as PM
(July 16)
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote
and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections
Headline voting intention: November ‘03 – May ‘17
2005 General Election 2010 General Election
Cameron
elected
(Dec 05)
Brown
as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM

SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS

17%
54%
28%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Paul Nuttall Tim Farron The Government
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP /LEADER OF THE LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS ?
Base: 1,053 British adults 18+, 15th-17th May 2017 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
45%
49%
7%
55%35%
9%
31%
58%
11%
+0.5%
swing from April 2017
+3.5%
-4%
swing from April
2017
-2%
swing from April
2017
-1.5%
+20 Net -27 Net -37 Net -11 Net -4 Net
SATISFIED 55% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 17% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 45%
DISSATISFIED 35% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 49%
28%
39%
33%

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. In February 2015 and 2016 data for Paul Nuttall and Tim Farron was not collected
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – May 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
MAY CORBYN FARRON NUTTALL
55%
31%
28%
17%

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
Number of months after becoming Prime Minister

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2017)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Hague (97-01) Ducan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10)
Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92)
Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94)
Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
Corbyn

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,053 British adults 18+, 15th-17th May 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction)
55%35%
9%
May 2017 August 2016 – May 2017
SATISFIED 55%
DISSATISFIED 35%
DON’T KNOW 9%
Net = +20
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 362 Conservative supporters 18+ , 15th-17th May 2017
Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters)
91%
4% 5%
May 2017
SATISFIED 91%
DISSATISFIED 4%
DON’T KNOW 5%
Net = +87
August 2016 – May 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

31%
58%
11%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 58%
DON’T KNOW 11%
Net = -27
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
May 2017 September 2015 – May 2017
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

58%
35%
7%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
SATISFIED 58%
DISSATISFIED 35%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = +23
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 323 Labour supporters 18+, 15th-17th May 2017
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

28%
39%
33%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
SATISFIED 28%
DISSATISFIED 39%
DON’T KNOW 33%
Net = -11
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY PAUL NUTTALL IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
UKIP, THE UK INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Paul Nuttall (satisfaction)
December 2016 – May 2017May 2017
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
17%
54%
28% SATISFIED 17%
DISSATISFIED 54%
DON’T KNOW 28%
Net = -37

ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

27%
23%
43%
8%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mar-04
Sep-04
Mar-05
Sep-05
Apr-06
Nov-06
Jul-07
Feb-08
Aug-08
Feb-09
Aug-09
Feb-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
Mar-14
Sep-14
Mar-15
Oct-15
Aprl-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
IMPROVE 27%
STAY THE SAME 23%
GET WORSE 43%
DON’T KNOW 8%
EOI = -16
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Economic Optimism Index
May 2017

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Sep1997
Jan1998
May1998
Sep1998
Jan1999
May1999
Sep1999
Jan2000
May2000
Sep2000
Jan2001
May2001
Sep2001
Jan2002
May2002
Sep2002
Jan2003
May2003
Sep2003
Jan2004
May2004
Sep2004
Jan2005
May2005
Sep2005
Jan2006
May2006
Sep2006
Jan2007
May2007
Sep2007
Jan2008
May2008
Sep2008
Jan2009
May2009
Sep2009
Jan2010
May2010
Sep2010
Jan2011
May2011
Sep2011
Jan2012
May2012
Sep2012
Jan2013
May2013
Sep2013
Jan2014
May2014
Sep2014
Jan2015
May2015
Sep2015
Jan2016
May2016
Sep2016
Jan2017
May2017
-16

VOTING DECISIONS

HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR THE ………. PARTY OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY
CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All giving a General Election Voting intention 907 British adults 18+, 15th-17th May 2017
The majority of voters have made up their mind
81%
73%
64%
71%
65%
57%
50%
60%
63%
67%
17%
25%
32%
25%
32%
41%
49%
38%
36%
32%
May-83
May 87
Mar-92
April 97
May 01
Apr-05
Apr-10
Apr-15
Apr-17
May-17
Definitely decided May change mind Don’t know

Labour and Lib Dem vote softer than Conservatives
60
44
43
42
21
22
36
32
40
51
56
57
78
77
63
67
May change mind Definitely decided
Overall May 2017
Overall April 2017
Conservative supporters May
2017
Conservative supporters April 2017
Labour supporters May 2017
Labour supporters April 2017
Liberal Democrat supporters
May 2017
April 2017

Labour and Lib Dem vote softer than Conservatives
44
42
22
32
51
57
77
67
% May change mind
Overall May 2017
Conservative supporters
Labour supporters
% Definitely decided

May 2015 May 2017
IF YOU DO CHANGE YOUR MIND ABOUT VOTING FOR THIS PARTY, WHICH PARTY WOULD YOU VOTE FOR
INSTEAD?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All registered who may change their mind (268), 5th-6th May 2015 and 15th-17th May 2017.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are the most
common second choice
24%
12%
7%
10%
20%
1%
23%
14%
20%
14%
10%
17%
3%
22%

ISSUES

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH, IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH PARTY TO VOTE FOR?* (UNPROMPTED)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,053 British adults 18+, 21st – 25th April 2017
NHS and Brexit are the two most important issues
42
43
22
16
12
12
9
42
31
21
18
17
14
10
7
47
24
35
19
16
9
Europe / EU / Brexit
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
Education/schools
Managing the economy/economic situation
Asylum and immigration
Taxation
Don’t Know
May-17 Apr-17 Apr-15

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE GENERAL ELECTION, WHICH, IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY
IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH PARTY TO VOTE FOR?* (UNPROMPTED)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,053 British adults 18+, 15-17 May 2015
Most important issues by party
60%
34%
18%
21%
15%
17%
6%
5%
30%
56%
37%
16%
4%
9%
12%
12%
58%
49%
30%
18%
12%
20%
10%
5%
Europe / EU / Brexit
Healthcare/NHS/hospitals
Education/schools
Managing the economy/economic situation
Asylum and immigration
Taxation
Care for older people
Benefits
Con Labour LibDem

WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S
THERESA MAY, OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?
Theresa May still leads as most capable Prime Minister
56%29%
1%
7%
6%
61%
23%
1%
1%
6%
7%
MAY
CORBYN
OTHER
NO DIFFERENCE
NEITHER / NONE
DON’T KNOW
April 2017 May 2017
Base: 1,053 British adults 18+, 15th-17th May 2017

52
12
40
21
29
33
27
42
23
61
29
56May, May 2017
May, April 2017
Cameron, May 2015
Cameron, May 2010
Howard, May 2005
Corbyn, May 2017
Corbyn, April 2017
Miliband, May 2015
Brown, May 2010
Blair, May 2005
Blair, May 2001
Hague, May 2001
WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S
THERESA MAY, OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?
Most capable Prime Minister since 2001

PARTIES AND LEADERS

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK...
Conservatives strongest image on policies, leaders and unity –
Labour trusted more on balancing the tax between rich and poor
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIB DEM OTHER NONE OF THESE DON’T KNOW
13% 15%
9% 12% 11%
5%
8%
4%
7% 10%
3%
1%
5%
6% 2%1% 1%
3%
1%5% 2%
5%
5%
5%
31%
21%
35% 16%
38%
43%
53%
40%
52%
33%
Has the best policies for the
country as a whole?
Has the best team of
leaders to deal with the
country’s problems?
Would be best at looking
after the interests of people
like you?
Is the most clear and united
about what its policies
should be?
Do you trust the most to
get the right balance
between how much rich
and poor people pay in tax?

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
May-89 May-92 May-95 May-98 May-01 May-04 May-07 May-10 May-13 May-16
Conservative Labour Lib Dem UKIP
WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK… HAS THE BEST POLICIES FOR THE COUNTRY AS A WHOLE?
Conservatives equal top score on having best policies
November 1989 – May 2017

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK… HAS THE BEST TEAM OF LEADERS TO DEAL WITH THE
COUNTRY’S PROBLEMS?
Record score for Conservatives on best team of leaders
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May-89 May-92 May-95 May-98 May-01 May-04 May-07 May-10 May-13 May-16

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK… WOULD BE THE BEST AT LOOKING AFTER THE INTERESTS OF
PEOPLE LIKE YOU?
Gap closer between parties on looking after your interests
April 2001 – May 2017
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
May-00 May-02 May-04 May-06 May-08 May-10 May-12 May-14 May-16

WHICH POLITICAL PARTY DO YOU THINK… IS MOST CLEAR AND UNITED ABOUT WHAT ITS POLICIES
SHOULD BE?
Conservatives also hit best score on most clear and united
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May-91 May-94 May-97 May-00 May-03 May-06 May-09 May-12 May-15

AT WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING ANNUAL INCOME LEVELS, IF ANY, WOULD YOU DESCRIBE SOMEONE AS
“RICH”?
When do we become rich?
2
9
37
26
23
1
2
£25,000 £40,000 £80,000 £150,000 More than
£150,000
None of
them
Don't know

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… LABOUR IS READY TO FORM THE NEXT GOVERNMENT?
Labour’s hasn’t been seen as ready for government
for several years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Dec-
94
Jan-96
Apr-
97
May-
11
Apr-
13
Nov-
14
Feb-
15
May-
16
May-
17
Agree Disagree
Corbyn as
leader
Miliband as
leader
Blair as
leader
December 1994– May 2017

DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… JEREMY CORBYN IS READY TO BE PRIME MINISTER?
Only three in ten say Jeremy Corbyn ready to be PM
53
17
21 22
30
13
7
4 7
5
28 69 63 65 60
April 97 (Blair) May 11 (Miliband) Feb 15 (Miliband) May 16 (Corbyn) May 17 (Corbyn)
Disagree
Agree

LIKELY
OUTCOME

42%
28%
8%
2%
4%
6%
Conservative overall
majority of more than
100 seats
Conservative overall
majority under 100 seats
Conservatives being the
biggest party but having
no overall majority
Labour being the biggest
party but having no
overall majority
Labour overall majority
of under 100 seats
Labour overall majority
of more than 100 seats
Liberal Democrat victory
WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE
OUTCOME OF THE FORTHCOMING
ELECTION?
Expected and preferred outcome of the General Election
WHAT IS YOUR PREFERRED OUTCOME OF
THE FORTHCOMING GENERAL ELECTION?
33%
12%
3%
5%
7%
20%
4%

WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE OUTCOME OF THE FORTHCOMING ELECTION?
Expected outcome of the General Election
66%
28%
6% 5% 5%
24%
11%
70%
11%
19%
72%
78%
62%
10%
6%
10%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
May-83 Mar-92 Apr-97 May-01 Apr-05 Mar-10 Apr-15 May-17
Conservative majority Labour majority
Note: Question wording and answer options have varied over the years so comparisons should be made carefully

IF A CONSERVATIVE/LABOUR GOVERNMENT IS ELECTED AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, DO YOU
THINK IT WILL OR WILL NOT…?
Expectations of a Conservative and Labour government
35%
41%
36%
31%
31%
60%
66%
33%
70%
54%
55%
50%
57%
59%
57%
29%
28%
57%
19%
33%
Keep its promises Lab
Keep its promises Con
Help to improve your own standard of living Lab
Help to improve your own standard of living Con
Get good deal for GB in negotiations with EU Lab
Get good deal for GB in negotiations with EU Con
Improve welfare state services Lab
Improve welfare state services Con
Increase income tax Lab
Increase income tax Con
Will Will not

IF A CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT IS ELECTED AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, DO YOU THINK IT
WILL OR WILL NOT…?
What do voters think a Conservative government would do?
18%
41%
25%
31%
60%
16%
33%
56%
61%
54%
70%
50%
66%
59%
29%
73%
57%
32%
11%
33%
Keep its promises 1997
Help to improve your own standard of living 1997
Get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with the EU 2017
Improve welfare state services 1997
Increase income tax 1997
Will Will not

IF A LABOUR GOVERNMENT IS ELECTED AFTER THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION, DO YOU THINK IT WILL
OR WILL NOT…?
What do voters think a Labour government would do?
39%
35%
33%
36%
31%
66%
66%
66%
72%
70%
47%
55%
53%
57%
57%
23%
28%
20%
9%
19%
Get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with the EU 2017
Will Will not

Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
45
POLITICAL
MONITOR
MAY 2017

Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2017

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor: May 2017