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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - October 2017

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As the Brexit negotiations continue Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor reveals little confidence among the public that the Prime Minister will get a good deal for Britain. Three in five (60%) are either ‘not very’ or ‘not at all’ confident in the PM getting a good deal – just over a third (36%) are either ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ confident in her. Nonetheless two-thirds (66%) of Conservative supporters have confidence that she will strike a good deal compared with one in five (19%) Labour supporters and quarter (26%) of Liberal Democrats. Overall few members of the public think Theresa May is doing a good job handling Brexit. A third (32%) say she is doing a good job but a majority (55%) say she is doing a bad job. Neither of these measures show any real change since last asked in July, but both are down from Mrs May’s ratings before the election.

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - October 2017

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORIPOLITICAL MONITOR October 2017
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 809. Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% Voting Intention ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2 38% 40% 9% 4% 3% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN 37% 39% 11% 5% 3% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP GREEN
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jun15 Jul15 Aug15 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election 2015 General Election CONSERVATIVE LABOUR
  5. 5. 5Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08 Jan09 Jul09 Jan10 Jul10 Jan11 Jul11 Jan12 Jul12 Jan13 Jul13 Jan14 Jul14 Jan15 Jul15 Jan16 Jul16 Jan17 Jul17 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – October ‘17 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  6. 6. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 6 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Theresa May Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 30% 59% 11% 37% 53% 11% 42% 45% 14% Jeremy Corbyn The Government +0.5% swing from September 2017 0% swing from September 2017 -3% swing from September 2017 +0.5% swing from September 2017 -16 Net -3 Net -7 Net -29 Net SATISFIED 37% SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 26% SATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 53% DISSATISFIED 45% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 59% 26% 33% 42% Vince Cable
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month. Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – Oct 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17 Oct17 MAY CORBYN CABLE 37% 42% 26%
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2017) MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May Number of months after becoming Prime Minister
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2017) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Hague (97-01) Ducan Smith (01-03) Howard (03-05) Cameron (05-10) Blair (94-97) Miliband (10-15) Corbyn (15-present) Kinnock (83-92) Foot (80-83) Smith (92-94) Number of months after becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction Corbyn
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 27th October – 1st November 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction) 37% 53% 11% October 2017 August 2016 – October 2017 SATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 53% DON’T KNOW 11% Net = -16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 356 Conservative supporters 18+ , 27th October – 1st November 2017 Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters) 72% 23% 5% October 2017 SATISFIED 72% DISSATISFIED 23% DON’T KNOW 5% Net = +49 August 2016 – October 2017 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Dissatisfied Satisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public 42% 45% 14% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 45% DON’T KNOW 14% Net = -3 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 27th October – 1st November 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) October 2017 September 2015 – October 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public 71% 21% 8% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 SATISFIED 71% DISSATISFIED 21% DON’T KNOW 8% Net = +50 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 349 Labour supporters 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) October 2017 September 2015 – October 2017 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  15. 15. 15Political Monitor | March 2016 | Final | Public 26% 33% 42% SATISFIED 26% DISSATISFIED 33% DON’T KNOW 42% Net = -7 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Vince Cable (satisfaction) October 2017 Base: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017
  16. 16. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 16 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  17. 17. 17Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public 19% 24%51% 6% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 May-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Dec-07 Feb-08 Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Nov-10 Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-117 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Aprl-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 IMPROVE 19% STAY THE SAME 24% GET WORSE 51% DON’T KNOW 6% EOI = -32 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,052 British adults 18+, 27th October – 1st November 2017 Economic Optimism Index October 2017
  18. 18. 18Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Economic Optimism has been on downward trend since 2014 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Nov1997 Mar1998 Jul1998 Nov1998 Mar1999 Jul1999 Nov1999 Mar2000 Jul2000 Nov2000 Mar2001 Jul2001 Nov2001 Mar2002 Jul2002 Nov2002 Mar2003 Jul2003 Nov2003 Mar2004 Jul2004 Nov2004 Mar2005 Jul2005 Nov2005 Mar2006 Jul2006 Nov2006 Mar2007 Jul2007 Nov2007 Mar2008 Jul2008 Nov2008 Mar2009 Jul2009 Nov2009 Mar2010 Jul2010 Nov2010 Mar2011 Jul2011 Nov2011 Mar2012 Jul2012 Nov2012 Mar2013 Jul2013 Nov2013 Mar2014 Jul2014 Nov2014 Mar2015 Jul2015 Nov2015 Mar2016 Jul2016 Nov2016 Mar2017 Jul2017 -32
  19. 19. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 19 Brexit
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Impact of Brexit on people’s standard of living 18 21 24 18 20 46 39 24 40 41 29 36 49 37 36 7 4 4 5 4 BETTER MAKES NO DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW May ‘16 July ‘16 Oct ‘17 Oct ‘16 March ‘17 Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
  21. 21. 21Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THERESA MAY HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor GOOD JOB BAD JOB 32 35 49 51 55 55 40 35 Oct-17 Jul-17 Mar-17 Dec-16 Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
  22. 22. 22Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS? Base: 1,071 British adults 18+, 14th – 18th July 2017 Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain 5% 6% 11% 5% 35% 30% 33% 29% 4 3 5 4 31% 31% 28% 35% 29% 29% 23% 27% Theresa May October 2017 Theresa May July 2017 Theresa May March 2017 (David Cameron February 2016) VERY CONFIDENT FAIRLY CONFIDENT NOT VERY CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT AT ALL Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
  23. 23. 23Political Monitor | July 2017| Final | Public 45% 44% 49% 49% 39% 42% 41% 37% AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c1,000 British adults each month Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of immigration in its future relationship with the EU? BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION Jan 2017 Oct 2016 Jul 2017 Oct 2017
  24. 24. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 24 Ipsos MORI October 2017 POLITICAL MONITOR

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