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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - October 2016

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Public optimism over the strength of the economy has fallen sharply in the last month according to Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor. More than half (53%, up from 37% in September) think the economy will get worse over the next twelve months, with a quarter (24%) thinking it will get better and 17% saying it will stay the same – leaving an overall Economic Optimism Index score of -29 (compared with -1 in September).

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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - October 2016

  1. 1. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 1 Ipsos MORI October 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 47% 29% 6% 4% 7% 7% HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 749. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE. Voting Intention 45% 32% 7% 4% 7% 5% ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTIONHEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +13 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +18 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER
  4. 4. 4Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Apr03 Oct03 Apr04 Oct04 Apr05 Oct05 Apr06 Oct06 Apr07 Oct07 Apr08 Oct08 Apr09 Oct09 Apr10 Oct10 Apr11 Oct11 Apr12 Oct12 Apr13 Oct13 Apr14 Oct14 Apr15 Oct15 Apr16 Oct16 2015 General Election Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 700 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections Headline voting intention: April ‘03 – Oct ‘16 2005 General Election 2010 General Election Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM
  5. 5. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 5 SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  6. 6. 6Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 22% 34% 44% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied Satisfaction with leaders and the Government 37% 53% 9% -5.5% swing from September 2016 +3.5% swing from September 2016 -0.5% swing from September2016 - 1.5% swing from September 2016 +16 Net -24 Net -12 Net -16 Net SATISFIED 48% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 37% DISSATISFIED 32% DISSATISFIED 55% DISSATISFIED 34% 3DISSATISFIED 53% 48% 32% 19% 31% 55% 15% Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government
  7. 7. 7Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – October’16 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Sep15 Oct15 Nov15 Dec15 Jan16 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16 May16 Jun16 Jul16 Aug16 Sep16 Oct16 MAY CORBYN FARRON 48% 31% 22%
  8. 8. 8Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone May
  9. 9. 9Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016) Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader Netsatisfaction HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
  10. 10. 10Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Theresa May (satisfaction) 48% 32% 19% October 2016 September 2016 SATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 32% DON’T KNOW 19% Net = +16 54% 27% 19% SATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 27% DON’T KNOW 19% Net = +27
  11. 11. 11Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 376 Conservative supporters 18+ 14th – 17th October 2016 and 345 Conservative supporters 18+ 10th – 14th September Theresa May (satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters 80% 8% 12% October 2016 September 2016 SATISFIED 80% DISSATISFIED 8% DON’T KNOW 12% Net = +72 81% 8% 11% SATISFIED 81% DISSATISFIED 6% DON’T KNOW 11% Net = +75
  12. 12. 12Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 31% 55% 15% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 SATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 55% DON’T KNOW 15% Net = -24 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction) October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  13. 13. 13Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 54% 32% 14% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 SATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 32% DON’T KNOW 14% Net = +22 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 274 Labour supporters 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters) October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  14. 14. 14Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 22% 34% 44% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Aprl-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 SATISFIED 22% DISSATISFIED 34% DON’T KNOW 44% Net = -12 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Tim Farron (satisfaction) October 2016 September 2015 – October 2016 Satisfied Dissatisfied
  15. 15. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 15 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  16. 16. 16Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 24% 17%53% 5% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Sep-04 Mar-05 Sep-05 Apr-06 Nov-06 Jul-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Oct-15 Aprl-16 Oct-16 IMPROVE 24% STAY THE SAME 17% GET WORSE 53% DON’T KNOW 5% EOI = -29 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Economic Optimism Index October 2016
  17. 17. 17Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Feb1997 Jun1997 Oct1997 Feb1998 Jun1998 Oct1998 Feb1999 Jun1999 Oct1999 Feb2000 Jun2000 Oct2000 Feb2001 Jun2001 Oct2001 Feb2002 Jun2002 Oct2002 Feb2003 Jun2003 Oct2003 Feb2004 Jun2004 Oct2004 Feb2005 Jun2005 Oct2005 Feb2006 Jun2006 Oct2006 Feb2007 Jun2007 Oct2007 Feb2008 Jun2008 Oct2008 Feb2009 Jun2009 Oct2009 Feb2010 Jun2010 Oct2010 Feb2011 Jun2011 Oct2011 Feb2012 Jun2012 Oct2012 Feb2013 Jun2013 Oct2013 Feb2014 Jun2014 Oct2014 Feb2015 Jun2015 Oct2015 Feb2016 Jun2016 Oct2016 -29
  18. 18. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 18 Impact of Brexit
  19. 19. 19Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EU, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? ASKED IN MAY AS: IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Brexit and standard of living 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 7 9 13 11 12 11 46 39 24 19 24 24 10 12 25 7 4 4 May-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 A lot better A little better Make no difference A little worse A lot worse Don't know
  20. 20. 20Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 18 47 30 5 14 55 26 5 QA: RECENTLY THE VALUE OF THE BRITISH POUND HAS DECREASED COMPARED WITH OTHER CURRENCIES. (QB INCLUDES: THIS IS LIKELY TO MEAN IMPORTS TO BRITAIN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE, WHILE BRITISH EXPORTS TO OTHER COUNTRIES WILL BE MORE COMPETITIVE). ON BALANCE, DO YOU THINK THE FALL IN THE POUND IS A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR BRITAIN, OR DOES IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 The depreciation of the Pound (Split samples) QA QB GOOD THING BAD THING MAKES NO DIFFERENCE DON’T KNOW
  21. 21. 21Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 45% 39% 4% 7% 5% AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of immigration in its future relationship with the EU? BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION NEITHER PRIORITISE HAVING BOTH DON’T KNOW
  22. 22. 22Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION 18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female ABC1 C2DE 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100 24% 54% 34% 38% 50% 35% 43% 29% 51% 57% 50% 32% 50% 39% Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
  23. 23. 23Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public AND AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE HAS BEEN MUCH DISCUSSION ON WHAT BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD BE AFTER IT LEAVES. SOME SAY BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET WHILE OTHERS THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION. WHAT DO YOU THINK BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING ACCESS TO THE EUROPEAN SINGLE MARKET BRITAIN SHOULD PRIORITISE HAVING CONTROL OVER IMMIGRATION Scotland England North England Midlands & Wales London Rest of South Degree or higher Other qualifications No qualifications Conservative Labour 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 *all subgroups have minimum base size of 100 61% 42% 42% 42% 55% 39% 67% 40% 26% 38% 58% 22% 41% 38% 46% 31% 41% 18% 45% 53% 28% 45% Should Britain prioritise single market access or control of immigration in its future relationship with the EU?
  24. 24. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 24 Party Image
  25. 25. 25Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 18% 34% 15% 29% 18% 42% 45% 25% 30% 11% 18% 11% 29% 69% 23% 41% 21% 33% 26% 56% 59% 26% 48% 47% 38% 53% 37% 53% Keeps its promises Understands the problems facing Britain Has a good team of leaders Looks after the interests of people like me Fit to govern Concerned about people in real need Different to the other parties I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Positive attributes of party image
  26. 26. 26Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 55% 35% 9% 46% 61% 64% 57% 55% 57% 82% 38% 61% 65% 52% 27% 45% Will promise anything to win votes Divided Extreme Out of date I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP LIBERAL DEMOCRATS 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Negative attributes of party image
  27. 27. 27Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 30% 48% 49% 68% 38% 29% 37% 56% 32% 48% 62% 26% 48% 47% 65% 52% 27% 38% 53% 37% 45% 53% Keeps its promises Understands the problems facing Britain Has a good team of leaders Will promise anything to win votes Divided Extreme Looks after the interests of people like me Fit to govern Concerned about people in real need Out of date Different to the other parties I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015 1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Conservative party image
  28. 28. 28Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 26% 51% 27% 60% 75% 36% 43% 35% 61% 55% 62% 23% 41% 21% 57% 82% 38% 33% 26% 56% 61% 59% Keeps its promises Understands the problems facing Britain Has a good team of leaders Will promise anything to win votes Divided Extreme Looks after the interests of people like me Fit to govern Concerned about people in real need Out of date Different to the other parties I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor1,016 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Labour party image OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
  29. 29. 29Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 21% 43% 18% 60% 52% 69% 27% 16% 39% 48% 76% 25% 30% 11% 61% 64% 57% 18% 11% 29% 55% 69% Keeps its promises Understands the problems facing Britain Has a good team of leaders Will promise anything to win votes Divided Extreme Looks after the interests of people like me Fit to govern Concerned about people in real need Out of date Different to the other parties I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor483 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 UKIP party image OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
  30. 30. 30Political Monitor | October 2016 | Final | Public 19% 46% 16% 59% 50% 12% 33% 17% 55% 53% 55% 18% 34% 15% 55% 35% 9% 29% 18% 42% 46% 45% Keeps its promises Understands the problems facing Britain Has a good team of leaders Will promise anything to win votes Divided Extreme Looks after the interests of people like me Fit to govern Concerned about people in real need Out of date Different to the other parties I AM GOING TO READ OUT SOME THINGS BOTH FAVOURABLE AND UNFAVOURABLE THAT HAVE BEEN SAID ABOUT VARIOUS POLITICAL PARTIES. WHICH OF THESE, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK APPLY TO… Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor533 British adults 18+, 14th – 17th October 2016 Liberal Democrats party image OCTOBER 2016 SEPTEMBER 2015
  31. 31. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) © 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos. 31 October 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

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