As Parliament gets ready to vote on the Withdrawal Agreement next week Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor reveals most of the public believe withdrawing from the EU on its terms will be bad for Britain. The poll shows six in ten (62%) think withdrawing under this deal will be bad for the UK as a whole (25% say good), including 47% of Conservatives (40% of whom think it would be good). This is worse than the reaction to the Prime Minister’s Chequers deal in July when 47% thought it would be bad for the country.
3. 3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Voting Intention: December 2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1049 British adults 18+, 30 November – 5 December 2018; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 811
Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections,
there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is
especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -1
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +0
38%
38%
9%
4%
5%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
UKIP
GREEN
37%
38%
8%
5%
5%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
UKIP
GREEN
4. 4Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jun15
Jul15
Aug15
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Oct17
Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
CONSERVATIVE 38%
LABOUR 38%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
Dec ‘18
5. 5Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan04
Apr04
Jul04
Oct04
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Oct16
Jan17
Apr17
Jul17
Oct17
Jan18
Apr18
Jul18
Oct18
Miliband elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – December ‘18
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE 38%
LABOUR 38%
UKIP 4%
GREEN 5%
LIB DEM 9%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
Dec ‘18
6. Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 6
December 2018
SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY
LEADERS
7. 7Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: December 2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 November - 5 December 2018. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and
% “dissatisfied”
57%
8%
35%
59%
14%
27%
38%
38%
24%
69%
7%
24%
DISSATISFIED
DON’T KNOW
SATISFIED
+5% SWING FROM OCT 2018 -0.5% SWING FROM OCT 2018 +2.5% SWING FROM OCT 2018 +1.5% SWING FROM OCT 2018
NET=-32 NET=-14 NET=-45NET=-22
8. 8Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE
LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?.
Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – December 2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Oct17
Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
2016 EU Ref
% satisfied
MAY 35%
CORBYN 27%
CABLE 24%
GENERAL
ELECTION
Dec ‘18
9. 9Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2018)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAY
CAMERON
BROWN
MAJOR
BLAIR
THATCHER
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
NETSATISFACTION
May
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
10. 10Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2018)
Corbyn
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER
NETSATISFACTION
CORBYN
BLAIR
SMITH
KINNOCK
MILLIBAND
FOOT
CAMERON
DUNCAN-SMITH
HAGUE
HOWARD
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
11. 11Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2018)
Theresa May’s Government
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT
NETSATISFACTION
MAY’S GOV
BLAIR’S GOV
MAJOR’S GOV
CAMERON’S GOV
THATCHER’S GOV
BROWN’S GOV
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
12. 12Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2018 August 2016 – December 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
.
57% Dissatisfied
8% Don’t know
35% Satisfied
NET = -22
Satisfaction
DISSATISFIED 57%
SATISFIED 35%
%
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
13. 13Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 382 Conservative supporters 18+ 30 November – 5 December 2018
December 2018 August 2016 – December 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
.
31% Dissatisfied
3% Don’t know
66% Satisfied
NET = +35
DISSATISFIED 31%
SATISFIED 66%
Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
%
14. 14Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2018 September 2015 – December 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
.
SATISFIED 27%
DISSATISFIED 59%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -32
Satisfaction
59% Dissatisfied
14% Don’t know
27% Satisfied
%
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
15. 15Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 320 Labour supporters 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
December 2018 September 2015 – December 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
.
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = +9
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
40% Dissatisfied
11% Don’t know
49% Satisfied
SATISFIED 49%
DISSATISFIED 40%
%
16. 16Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Vince Cable
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2018 September 2017 – December 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
.
DISSATISFIED 38%
SATISFIED 24%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
NET = -14
38% Dissatisfied
38% Don’t know
24% Satisfied
Satisfaction
%
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
18. 18Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Dec-18
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
December 2018
EOI = -47
61%19%
14%
6%
GET WORSE
STAY THE SAME
Don’t know
GET BETTER
Stay the same Get worse
Improve
%
January 2007 - December 2018
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
19. 19Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2018
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1998
Oct1998
Jul1999
Apr2000
Jan2001
Oct2001
Jul2002
Apr2003
Jan2004
Oct2004
Jul2005
Apr2006
Jan2007
Oct2007
Jul2008
Apr2009
Jan2010
Oct2010
Jul2011
Apr2012
Jan2013
Oct2013
Jul2014
Apr2015
Jan2016
Oct2016
Jul2017
Apr2018
NET OPTIMISM=-47
21. 21State of the Nation: 2018 | November 2017 | Version 1 | Internal Use Only
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
Britain’s economy over
26%
38%
26%
15%
9%
13%
49%
49%
55%
May 2016
July 2016
Dec 2018
39%
55%
45%
11%
11%
10%
35%
24%
34%
May 2016
July 2016
Dec 2018
the next five years
18%
21%
18%
46%
39%
37%
29%
36%
41%
May 2016
July 2016
Dec 2018
Britain’s economy over
the next ten to
twenty years
Your own standard of
living
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED
TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION,
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK
IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR
XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE?
People are more
pessimistic about
the short term
impact of Brexit on
the economy since
the referendum
BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE
22. 22State of the Nation: 2018 | November 2017 | Version 1 | Internal Use Only
NOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE BETTER OR
WORSE FOR YOUR OWN STANDARD OF LIVING, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+
WORSE 41%
BETTER 18%
MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE 37%
21%
18%
20%
18%
36%
49%
37% 36%
43%
39%
24%
40% 41%
32%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18
Impact of Brexit Own standards of living
Dec ‘18
23. 23State of the Nation: 2018 | November 2017 | Version 1 | Internal Use Only
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
Britain’s ability to make
59%
59%
55%
15%
16%
17%
20%
21%
24%
May 2016
July 2016
Dec 2018
47% 24% 22%Dec 2018
decisions in its own best
Britain’s control over
immigration from the
EUNOW THAT BRITAIN HAS VOTED
TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION,
TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK
IT WILL BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR
XXX, OR WILL IT MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE?
However, the public
still think Brexit will
be better for
sovereignty and
immigration control
BETTER WORSEMAKES NO DIFFERENCE
interests
Britain’s control over
immigration from
outside the EU
35% 39% 20%Dec 2018
24. 24Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’,, prior to that it was asked as ‘will get a good deal’
NOT CONFIDENT 69%
CONFIDENT 23%
44%
36% 35%
37%
34%
30%
25%
28%
19%
51%
60% 60%
59%
63%
67%
72%
70%
78%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18
Dec ‘18
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
25. 25Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
67%
73%
66%
67%
56%
47% 45%
34%
33%
26%
30% 32%
43%
51% 53%
64%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month
* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’,, prior to that it was asked as ‘will get a good deal’
NOT CONFIDENT 54%
CONFIDENT 39%
Among Conservative supporters
Dec ‘18
26. 26Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
25%
62%
4%
9%
29%
47%
6%
19%
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT AND THE
EUROPEAN UNION HAVE REACHED AN AGREEMENT
ON THE TERMS OF BRITAIN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM
THE EUROPEAN UNION. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW
OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE A
GOOD THING OR BAD THING FOR THE UK AS A
WHOLE TO WITHDRAW FROM THE EU ON THESE
TERMS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Withdrawal
GOOD THING
BAD THING
NEITHER
DON’T KNOW
Agreement
Dec ‘18
Chequers
Plan
July ‘18
Public opinion on
the Withdrawal
Agreement
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
CHEQUERS: AND FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD,
DO YOU THINK THERESA MAY’S PLAN FOR BRITAIN’S
FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION (ALSO
KNOWN AS THE CHEQUERS PLAN) WOULD BE A GOOD
THING OR BAD THING FOR THE UK AS A WHOLE?
27. 27Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
4%
39%
51%
6%
AND REGARDLESS OF HOW YOU
VOTED IN THE EU REFERENDUM, DO
YOU BELIEVE THE WITHDRAWAL
AGREEMENT REACHED BETWEEN THE
GOVERNMENT AND THE EUROPEAN
UNION IS BETTER OR WORSE, OR
ABOUT THE SAME AS YOU EXPECTED
AT THE TIME OF THE REFERENDUM?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
BETTER
WORSE
ABOUT THE SAME
DON’T KNOW
Dec ‘18
Public opinion on
the Withdrawal
Agreement
Withdrawal
Agreement
AS EXPECTED
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
28. 28Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
PARLIAMENT IS EXPECTED TO VOTE ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT ON DECEMBER 11TH. IF PARLIAMENT DOES NOT VOTE IN
FAVOUR OF THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO NEXT?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
4%
1%
6%
10%
10%
11%
19%
20%
20%
.
HOLD A SECOND VOTE IN PARLIAMENT ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT
ASK THE EU TO REOPEN NEGOTIATIONS TO SEEK A DIFFERENT DEAL
CALL A GENERAL ELECTION
CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT
CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU
CALL-OFF BREXIT ALTOGETHER WITHOUT A REFERENDUM
ALLOW BRITAIN TO LEAVE THE EU WITHOUT A DEAL
NONE OF THE ABOVE
DON’T KNOW
Withdrawal Agreement – what should happen next?
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
29. 29Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
PARLIAMENT IS EXPECTED TO VOTE ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT ON DECEMBER 11TH. IF PARLIAMENT DOES NOT VOTE IN
FAVOUR OF THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT, WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD DO NEXT?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
.
HOLD A SECOND VOTE IN PARLIAMENT ON THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT
ASK THE EU TO REOPEN NEGOTIATIONS TO SEEK A DIFFERENT DEAL
CALL A GENERAL ELECTION
CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT TO ACCEPT THE WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT
CALL A REFERENDUM ON WHETHER OR NOT BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE THE EU
CALL-OFF BREXIT ALTOGETHER WITHOUT A REFERENDUM
ALLOW BRITAIN TO LEAVE THE EU WITHOUT A DEAL
NONE OF THE ABOVE
DON’T KNOW
Withdrawal Agreement – what should happen next?
5%
*
11%
15%
25%
9%
17%
14%
4%
4%
1%
27%
6%
17%
11%
3%
26%
6%
CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERSBase: 320 Labour supporters 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
Base: 382 Conservative supporters 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
30. 30Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
43%
50%
7%
AND IF PARLIAMENT DOES NOT
VOTE IN FAVOUR OF THE
WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT, DO
YOU THINK THAT THERESA
MAY SHOULD RESIGN AS
PRIME MINISTER OR SHOULD
SHE CONTINUE BEING THE
PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
RESIGN AS PRIME MINISTER
DON’T KNOW
If the Withdrawal
Agreement is not
passed, what should
Theresa May do?
SHOULD STEP DOWN EVEN IF PARLIAMENT
VOTES IN FAVOUR OF THE WITHDRAWAL
AGREEMENT 1%
CONTINUE AS PRIME MINISTER
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
31. 31Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
1%
5%
7%
10%
14%
19%
27%
31%
35%
35%
.
AND IF BRITAIN AND OTHER
EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS FAIL
TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON
THE NEW TERMS OF BRITAIN’S
FUTURE RELATIONSHIP WITH THE
EU BY THE TIME BRITAIN LEAVES,
WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE
FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU
THINK WILL BE THE MOST TO
BLAME?
%
+1 +1 p
+3 +2 p
-6 -1 q
-10 -2 q
+3
-
-
-
+2
-
CHANGE SINCE OCT:
Position
EUROPEAN UNION
CONSERVATIVE MPS
THE UK GOVERNMENT
BREXIT CAMPAIGNERS
THE LABOUR PARTY
REMAIN CAMPAIGNERS
OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES
OTHER
NO-ONE
DON’T KNOW
Attributing blame
in the case of a
no deal Brexit
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
32. 32Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
33%
25%
14%
28%
AS YOU MAY KNOW THERE ARE
PLANS TO HOLD A TELEVISED
DEBATE ON SUNDAY DECEMBER 9TH
BETWEEN THERESA MAY AND
JEREMY CORBYN ON THEIR VIEWS
OF BRITAIN’S RELATIONSHIP WITH
EUROPE AFTER BRITAIN LEAVES THE
EU. HOW INTERESTED, IF AT ALL,
ARE YOU IN WATCHING THIS
DEBATE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
VERY INTERESTED
FAIRLY INTERESTED
DON’T KNOW 0%
Brexit television
debates
NOT VERY INTERESTED
NOT AT ALL INTERESTED
Level of interest
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
33. 33Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
15%
20%
20%
43%
HOW IMPORTANT, IF AT ALL, DO
YOU THINK THE DEBATE WILL BE IN
HELPING YOU MAKE UP YOUR
MIND ABOUT BRITAIN’S FUTURE
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
VERY IMPORTANT
FAIRLY IMPORTANT
DON’T KNOW 2%
Brexit television
debates
NOT VERY IMPORTANT
NOT AT ALL IMPORTANT
Importance in
changing minds
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
34. 34Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
40%
36%
14%
9%
AND WHO DO YOU THINK WILL
BE THE MOST CONVINCING IN
THE DEBATE, THERESA MAY OR
JEREMY CORBYN?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
THERESA MAY
JEREMY CORBYN
DON’T KNOW
Brexit television
debates
OTHER 1%
NEITHER
Who will win?
Base: 1049 British adults 18+ 30 October – 5 December 2018
35. Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 35
October 2018
Ipsos MORI
December 2018 Political Monitor
Gideon Skinner
Research Director
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
Glenn Gottfried
Research Manager
glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com
For more information