Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Support for independence rises as referendum speculation grows

9,230 views

Published on

As the UK government prepares to begin formal negotiations to leave the European Union and the SNP prepares for its forthcoming spring conference, our new poll for STV News shows voters split down the middle in their constitutional preference.

Among those who expressed a voting preference and who would be very likely or certain to vote in an immediate referendum, 50% (+2pts) said they would support independence with the other 50% of voters (-2pts) saying they would back Scotland remaining in the UK.

Published in: News & Politics
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Support for independence rises as referendum speculation grows

  1. 1. March 2017 SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION MONITOR
  2. 2. INDYREF2
  3. 3. 3 IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY? 49%51% YES NO Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 50%50% All giving VI All giving VI and Certain/likely to vote Base: All giving voting intention = 954. All giving voting intention and certain to vote = 858; Data collected among 1,000 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION (VI) Support for independence
  4. 4. 4 IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY? YES NO Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Base: All giving a voting intention = 954; Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017 54% 46% 44% 56% Support by gender
  5. 5. 5 IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY? YES NO Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 40% 60% 64% 36% 59% 41% 49% 51% 16-24 25-34 35-54 55+ Support by age Base: All giving a voting intention = 954; Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017
  6. 6. 6 IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY? YES NO Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Support by levels of deprivation 61% 39% 41% 59% 20% Most deprived areas 20% Least deprived areas Base: All giving a voting intention = 954; Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017
  7. 7. 7 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Base: All - 1029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10 WHERE 1 MEANS ‘I COMPLETELY SUPPORT SCOTLAND BECOMING INDEPENDENT’ AND 10 MEANS ‘I COMPLETELY SUPPORT SCOTLAND STAYING PART OF THE UK’ WHAT NUMBER WOULD YOU CONSIDER YOURSELF TO BE? Support for independence 28% 3% 7% 2% 7% 3% 5% 5% 2% 38% 2 3 4 51 6 7 8 9 10 Completely support independence Completely support the union
  8. 8. BREXIT
  9. 9. 9 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 48% 27% 17% 8% Base: All. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017 IF THERE IS A SECOND INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM AND SCOTLAND VOTES TO BECOME AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY, WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK SHOULD BE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND AND THE EUROPEAN UNION? An independent Scotland and the EU Scotland should be a full member of the European Union Scotland should have full access to the European single market we have at the moment but not be a full member of the European Union Scotland should not be a member of the European Union nor have full access to the European single market Don’t know/ refused
  10. 10. 10 AND THINKING ABOUT THE UK’S DECISION TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION AFTER THE REFERENDUM LAST YEAR, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING: Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor Base: All. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 Feb- 6 March 2017 Brexit process 24% 34% 52% 52% 59% 50% 37% 40% 14% 13% 9% 6% 3% 4% 2% 2% Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree Don't know The First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is doing a good job in representing Scotland’s interests in the process of the UK leaving the EU The Prime Minister Theresa May is doing a good job in representing Scotland’s interests in the process of the UK leaving the EU The Prime Minister Theresa May is doing a good job in representing the UK’s interests in the process of leaving the EU Once the negotiations for the UK leaving the EU finish, there should be another referendum across the UK to either accept or reject the deal
  11. 11. LOCAL ELECTIONS
  12. 12. 12 Local elections IN ELECTIONS FOR LOCAL COUNCILS IN SCOTLAND YOU PLACE THE CANDIDATES WHO ARE STANDING IN ORDER OF PREFERENCE. I AM GOING TO READ OUT A LIST OF PARTIES, ONCE I HAVE FINISHED COULD YOU TELL ME WHICH PARTY YOU WOULD GIVE YOUR FIRST VOTE TO IF THE ELECTION WAS BEING HELD TOMORROW. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor 46% 18% 17% 8% 6%4% 1% All giving a voting intention All giving a voting intention and likely to vote SNP lead +28 SNP lead +27 SNP CONSERVATIVE LABOUR GREEN LIB DEM UKIP OTHER 46% 19% 17% 8% 6% 3% 1% Base: All giving a voting intention = 958 . All giving a voting intention and likely to vote = 785 Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 24 February- 6 March 2017
  13. 13. 13 Technical details This presents the topline results from Scotland. Results are based on a survey of 1,029 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone Fieldwork dates: 24 February – 6 March 2017 Data are weighted by: age, sex, educational qualifications and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment series data Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the exclusion of “don’t know” categories Results are based on all respondents (1,029) unless otherwise stated. Contact us: Mark Diffley: mark.diffley@ipsos.com; 0131 220 5699

×