As David Cameron ramps up his efforts this week to secure a new deal for Britain in the EU Ipsos MORI’s latest Political Monitor reveals little change from January amongst the public when it comes to how they will vote in the referendum on EU membership. When asked the referendum question “should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?” the poll finds a majority (54%) would vote to remain a member (down 1 point from January) and 36% would vote to leave (no change). Ipsos MORI’s trend question on EU membership also reveals little difference from last month. When asked “if there were a referendum now on whether Britain should stay in or get out of the European Union, how would you vote?” half (51%) would vote to stay in (up 1 point) while 36% would vote to get out (down 2 points).

1. 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR
18.02.2016

2. VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. Voting Intention
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
39%
35%
10%
3%
7%
6%
All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention
Conservative lead = +4 Conservative lead = +6
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
39%
33%
12%
3%
6%
7%
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and
always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 724. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have
given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
3

4. SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS

5. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
5
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF UKIP?
-3%
swing from January 2016
-1.5%
swing from January 2016
+1.5%
swing from January 2016
-2%
swing from January 2016
-3%
swing from January 2016
-15 Net -21 Net -15 Net -14 Net -26 Net
SATISFIED 39% SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 20% SATISFIED 34%
DISSATISFIED 54% DISSATISFIED 51% DISSATISFIED 48% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 60%

6. Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb’09 – Feb’16
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
6HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS
RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
39%
33%
CAMERON CORBYN FARRON FARAGE
30%
20%

7. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
7HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
Number of months from becoming Prime Minister
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

8. David Cameron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
8ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
39%
54%
7%
February 2016 May 2006 –February 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May-06
Aug-06
Nov-06
May-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 39%
DISSATISFIED 54%
DON’T KNOW 7%
Net = -15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

9. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
Base: 319 Conservative supporters18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
9ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
79%
17%
4%
February 2016 May 2006 – February 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May06
Oct06
May07
Sep07
Feb08
Jun08
Oct-08
Feb-09
Jun-09
Oct-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 79%
DISSATISFIED 17%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +62
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

10. 30%
51%
19%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
10ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
February 2016
SATISFIED 30%
DISSATISFIED 51%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = -21
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
September 2015 – February 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

11. 56%31%
13%
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
11ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016.
SATISFIED 56%
DISSATISFIED 31%
DON’T KNOW 13%
Net = +25
February 2016 September 2015 – February 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

12. 20%
34%
46%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
12ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
February 2016
SATISFIED 20%
DISSATISFIED 34%
DON’T KNOW 46%
Net = -14
September 2015 – February 2016
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

13. 58%
21%
21%
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
Base: 74 Liberal Democrat supporters 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
February 2016
SATISFIED 58%
DISSATISFIED 21%
DON’T KNOW 21%
Net = +37
September 2015 – February 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

14. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-152
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
33%
48%
19%
February 2016 March 2013 – February 2016
SATISFIED 33%
DISSATISFIED 48%
DON’T KNOW 19%
Net = -15
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

15. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-152
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
Base: 73 UKIP supporters 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
N.B. small base size, indicative only.
15ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB
AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
74%
22%
4%
February 2016 March 2013 – February 2016
SATISFIED 74%
DISSATISFIED 22%
DON’T KNOW 4%
Net = +52 Dissatisfied
Satisfied

16. ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

17. Economic Optimism Index
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
17DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
February 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Apr-04
Jan-05
Oct-05
Sep-06
Aug-07
Jun-08
Mar-09
Dec-09
Oct-10
Jul-117
Apr-12
Jan-13
Oct-13
Jul-14
Apr-152
Feb-16
IMPROVE 25%
STAY THE SAME 26%
GET WORSE 44%
DON’T KNOW 5%
EOI = -19

18. The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
18DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL
IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1998
Aug1998
Mar1999
Oct1999
May2000
Dec2000
Jul2001
Feb2002
Sep2002
Apr2003
Nov2003
Jun2004
Jan2005
Aug2005
Mar2006
Oct2006
May2007
Dec2007
Jul2008
Feb2009
Sep2009
Apr2010
Nov2010
Jun2011
Jan2012
Aug2012
Mar2013
Oct2013
May2014
Dec2014
Jul2015
Feb2016
-19

19. EUROPE

20. 61
52 53
50 51
27
39
36
38
36
12
9
11 12 13
Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16
Stay in Get out Don’t know
European referendum
Base: 504 British adults 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
20
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

21. Should Britain vote to leave the European Union?
Trend since 1977
21
IF THERE WERE A REFERENDUM NOW ON WHETHER BRITAIN SHOULD STAY IN OR GET OUT OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION, HOW WOULD YOU VOTE?
26%
60% 63%
52%
49%
53%
51%
41%
61%
51%
65%
29% 27%
36% 35%
32%
39%
49%
27%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Feb-78
Feb-79
Feb-80
Feb-81
Feb-82
Feb-83
Feb-84
Feb-85
Feb-86
Feb-87
Feb-88
Feb-89
Feb-90
Feb-91
Feb-92
Feb-93
Feb-94
Feb-95
Feb-96
Feb-97
Feb-98
Feb-99
Feb-00
Feb-01
Feb-02
Feb-03
Feb-04
Feb-05
Feb-06
Feb-07
Feb-08
Feb-09
Feb-10
Feb-11
Feb-12
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Base: 504 British adults 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
STAY IN GET OUT

22. EU Referendum question:
Should the UK remain a member of the EU?
Base: 497 British adults 18+, 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
22SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
36%
52%
12%
32%
58%
10%
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
EUROPEAN UNION?
December 2015
36%
55%
9%
January 2016
36%
54%
10%
February 2016

23. 63%
35%
2%
57%
40%
3%
58%
39%
3%
Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
October 2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW
23
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT Q9A/B – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Base: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote: 897 British adults 18+13th – 16th February 2016
919 British adults 18+, 23rd – 25th January 2016 918 British adults 18+ giving an opinion, 17th – 19th October 2015
January 2016 February 2016

24. 20
24
26 25
27
37 36 37 38
35
32 32
30
26
29
6 5 4 5 54 3 3
5 4
Jun-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16
Not confident at all Not very confident Fairly confident Very confident Don’t know
Confidence in Cameron’s ability to get a good EU
deal for Britain
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
24
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD
DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
CONFIDENT 38
NOT CONFIDENT 57
CONFIDENT 37
NOT CONFIDENT 60
CONFIDENT 34
NOT CONFIDENT 63
CONFIDENT 31
NOT CONFIDENT 63
CONFIDENT 34
NOT CONFIDENT 62

25. 62%
26%
12%
Predicted outcome
25
THINKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP, WHICH OF THE
FOLLOWING OUTCOMES DO YOU THINK IS MOST LIKELY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO REMAIN A MEMBER
OF THE EUROPEAN UNION
BRITAIN WILL VOTE TO LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION DON’T KNOW
February 2016
62%
30%
8%
October 2015

26. 28%
8%
52%
12%
Right time for a referendum?
26DAVID CAMERON IS REPORTED TO BE PLANNING TO HOLD THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN
UNION ON JUNE 23RD THIS YEAR. DO YOU THINK THIS IS TOO EARLY, TOO LATE OR THE RIGHT TIME TO HOLD THE REFERENDUM?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
TOO EARLY TOO LATE THE RIGHT TIME DON’T KNOW
February 2016

27. 44%
32%
28%
28%
27%
23%
22%
21%
20%
1%
16%
4%
David Cameron, the Prime Minister
Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London
Theresa May, the Home Secretary
George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer
Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour Party
Stuart Rose, former chairman of Marks & Spencer and leader of the Britain
Stronger in Europe campaign
Nicola Sturgeon, the leader of the Scottish National Party
Lord Nigel Lawson, the former Chancellor and chairman of the Vote Leave
campaign
Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP
Other
None of them
Don’t know
Importance of individuals in deciding how to vote
27
WHO OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, WILL BE IMPORTANT TO YOU IN DECIDING HOW TO VOTE IN
THE REFERENDUM ON EUROPEAN UNION MEMBERSHIP? PLEASE CHOOSE ALL THAT APPLY
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
February 2016

28. 43%
13%
29%
10%
5%
Government ministers should be allowed to campaign for either side now
Government ministers should be allowed to campaign for either side
immediately after the deal is finalised
Government ministers should be allowed to campaign for either side a few
days after the deal is finalised, to give David Cameron time to present it
first
Government minsters should not be allowed to campaign against the
official government position at all
Don’t know
Ministerial campaigning
28
AS YOU MAY KNOW, DAVID CAMERON HAS SAID THAT GOVERNMENT MINISTERS WILL BE ALLOWED TO CAMPAIGN FOR EITHER SIDE IN THE EU REFERENDUM,
EVEN IF THEY ARE OPPOSED TO THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT POSITION, BUT THAT THEY MAY NOT DO SO UNTIL HIS NEGOTIATIONS TO CHANGE BRITAIN’S
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE EU HAVE BEEN FINALISED. WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS IS CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW:
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
February 2016

29. CHANCELLOR

30. Satisfaction with George Osborne
30
CAN YOU TELL ME WHETHER YOU ARE SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE
OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER?
Source: Ipsos MORI
SATISFIED DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
47
43 44
40
44
42
44
46
9
15
12 13
Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 Feb-16

31. Capability as Chancellor
31
WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE CHANCELLOR, THE CONSERVATIVE’S
GEORGE OSBORNE, OR LABOUR’S JOHN MCDONNELL?
Source: Ipsos MORI
GEORGE OSBOURNE
JOHN MCDONNELL (ED BALLS PRE
2016) NEITHER DON’T KNOW
Base: 1,001 British adults 18+, 13th – 16th February 2016
38
41
46
33
30 29
14
18
10
15
10
15
Mar-14 Mar-15 Feb-16

32. 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR