Introduction to my futuring talk. This sketches out major methods: extrapolation, prediction markets, scenarios, environmental scanning. After this, I went over to Prezi to demo some scenarios: http://prezi.com/whxzhabagrec/four-futures-for-liberal-education-aacu-2012/

3. Communities
of practice
Research
Joint projects
Outreach

4.  Network
platform: events
f2f/online
 Partnerships
 Translation

5.  Extrapolation
 Environmental
scan
 Delphi
 Futures market
Scenarios

6.  Extraordinary political or economic event
 Technology breakthrough (ex: AI)

7. iPhone Apps Store downloads
1. April 2009 1.0 billion
2. July 2009 1.5 billion
3. Sept 2009 2.0 billion
4. Dec 2009 …?
-works with data sources
-can lead to more data-gathering, metrics

9. Tweak to contexts

10.  Multiple
sources
 Should be
longitudinal

11. Dynamic social
media venue

12. Next 20 years?
Screening
Interacting
Sharing
Flowing
Accessing Pattern recognition:
Generating Deductions from
scanning
-Kevin Kelly

13.  Assemble
experts
 Probe for
opinions
 Rank and
distill ideas
 Reiterate

14.  “[A] comprehensive review and analysis of
research, articles, papers, blogs, and
interviews
 [We] discussed existing applications and
brainstormed new ones.
 A key criterion was the potential relevance
of the topics to
teaching, learning, research, and creative
expression.
 Iteration, ranking, reiteration, reranking”

15. Electronic Game-Based
Books Learning
Mobiles Gesture-
Based
Augmented
Computing
Reality
Learning
Analytics

16.  Propositions in time  Shares to be traded

17.  Continuous  Quant. + Qual.
 Distributed  Affordances of
feedback play

18. Stories about futures  Roles and times
 Event and response  Emergent practices and
 Creativity patterns

19. Integrate previous methods
 Select drivers – environmental
scan
 Identify trends – Delphi reports
 Test trends - extrapolation
 Test propositions – prediction
markets

20.  Is there a higher  Scholarly
education bubble? publication
 Digital humanities and/versus open
on the rise access
 Adjunctification  Higher education
continues budgets
 Alternative online  Computer
learning hardware ecology
 Textbooks going  Has the World
ebook+ Wide Web hit its
limit?
January 2012 scan sample

22.  Social media
 Mobile devices
 Digital content, born and made
 Ferment of forms
› Gaming
› User-generated, remixed content

24. Broad and dynamic
Industrial disruption
Distance (or virtual)
everything
Global default

26. Ever-increasing economic
interpenetration
Global media boom/riptide
Ready cultural disruption
“ “ innovation

27. Policy churn
Accelerating business
distribution
Distant is the new nearby
Non-US educational drives

28. NITLE
http://nitle.org
Techne
http://blogs.nitle.org/
NITLE prediction markets game
http://markets.nitle.org/
Bryan on Twitter
http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander