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  1. 1. Communitiesof practiceResearchJoint projectsOutreach
  2. 2.  Network platform: events f2f/online Partnerships Translation
  3. 3.  Extraordinary political or economic event Technology breakthrough (ex: AI, unrest)
  4. 4.  Multiple sources Should belongitudinal
  5. 5.  Social networks Iterated resource feeds Scanner contributes content
  6. 6. Next 20 years?ScreeningInteractingSharingFlowingAccessing Pattern recognition:Generating Deductions from scanning -Kevin Kelly
  7. 7.  Assemble experts Probe for opinions Rank and distill ideas Reiterate
  8. 8. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:One Year or LessMassively Open Online CoursesTablet Computing
  9. 9. Time-to-Adoption Horizon:Two to Three YearsBig Data and Learning AnalyticsGame-Based Learning
  10. 10. Time-to-AdoptionHorizon: Four to Five Years3D PrintingWearable Technology
  11. 11.  Propositions in time  Shares to be traded
  12. 12.  Continuous  Quant. + Qual. Distributed  Affordances of feedback play
  13. 13. Stories about futures  Roles and times Event and response  Emergent practices and Creativity patterns
  14. 14. Integrate previous methods: Select drivers – environmental scan Identify trends – Delphi reports Test trends - extrapolation Test propositions – prediction markets
  15. 15.  More Asian liberal  More Asian than arts campuses Hispanic immigrants State university  Certification rising gaming company  New OLI use cases Social media growth  Kickstarter continues continues to grow "Generation Screwed"  One R1 tries to cut vs seniors online libraries down Microsoft tablet  Academic unions crit Google US-sources distance learning hardware July 2012 scan sample
  16. 16.  Senior job  Google Glass video retention shooting Government-  3d printing lab supported maker equipment classes  US R+D low MOOCs: more;  MBA bubble? mutations  Adjunct Google Course- builder discrimination by time New badges initiative September 2012 scan sample
  17. 17.  British MOOC  cloud computing enterprise price war  printer sales stagnate  The United States birthrate fell to its  Android dominates smartphones lowest level since  3d printing in 1920 Staples  student-library  adjunct union disconnection organization  academic social  enrolled media use cases undergraduatesJanuary 2013 scan sample decline
  18. 18.  Demographic  Open edu expands crunch and few  Digital humanities spikes grows  More MOOCs  Athletics spending does well  Online  Shale oil -> edu coursetaking spending rises  Facebook search  F2f enrollment launches stallsFebruary 2013 scan sample
  19. 19. 1. Economics and college finances2. Communities and populations3. Teaching and learning and tech4. Technology ecosystem5. The future of liberal education6. MOOCs7. Scholarship
  20. 20. Mark Weiser, 1988ff Example:"The Computer for the Twenty-First Century" (1991)“The most profound technologies are those that disappear. They weave themselves into the fabric of everyday life until they are indistinguishable from it.”
  21. 21. First, the light stuff Museum tours GPS navigators (Garmin) Location services (Yelp)
  22. 22. Search the world
  23. 23. Multimedia lives here
  24. 24. AR art
  25. 25. Gartner: end of the mouseTouch screen (iOS)Handhelds (Wii)Nothing (Kinect)
  26. 26.  Median age of gamers shoots past 35 Industry size comparable to music Impacts on hardware, software, interfaces, othe r industries Large and growing diversity of platforms, topics, genres, niches, pl
  27. 27. Anecdata: number of Facebook CityVille players: 23,900,000 (as of July 2012, )
  28. 28. Gamesserious,public, andpolitical • Oiligarchy, Molle Industries • Jetset, Persuasive Games • The Great Shakeout, California • DimensionM, Tabula Digita
  29. 29. Imperial gamification
  30. 30. (political andmundane)
  31. 31. Use games to impact society
  32. 32. 1. Phantom Learning2. Open world3. The Lost Decade4. The Serpent Digests a Very Large Mammal5. Renaissance
  33. 33. Post-tsunamiSchools are rare and distantInformation is plentiful and nearby
  34. 34. Information on demandInstructors, peers “ “Grading outsourcedMultimedia: social, personalized
  35. 35. InstitutionsFunction: content supplementsFaculty: adjunct rōninAccreditation: online, multiple, display-
  36. 36. InstitutionsLibrary:media production campProfessional development: via social media
  37. 37. Students spent more time in K-12 with online classes than face-to- face onesK-12 as social center, working parent support spacesLibraries are softwareBuildings without AR look naked
  38. 38. No good categorical name: …which sometimes indicates the future
  39. 39. Open content, ope n access, open source• Very Web-centric
  40. 40. Global conversations increase, filter bubble popsMore access, more informationLots of creativity
  41. 41. Information prices dropFaculty creativity, flexibility growIT “ “ “Academic content unleashed on the world
  42. 42. Industries collapseAuthorship mysteriousSome low quality tech (videoconf.)Some higher costsMore malware + less privacy
  43. 43. Tech challengesOutsourcing and offshoringPLE beats LMSCrowdsourcing faculty workInformation literacy central
  44. 44. Internet has always been openWeb <> moneyOnline identity has always been fictional, playful
  45. 45. Mediabattles
  46. 46. Higher education landscape:Two Cultures redux: STEM vs New LeftAdjunct faculty 95%Public institutions’ shrunken footprintsScholarly publication 1/3rd 2000 level
  47. 47. Higher education landscape:Accreditation: the source of closuresLibraries: rare and/or smallerProfessional development: distance, DiY
  48. 48.  Great Recession began in 1st grade One or more family members unemployed“ “ “ “ “ underemployed Public education has always been stretched to breaking point/poor Public-private gap even wider Online learning can beat their schools “Library” denotes digital collection
  49. 49.  Economic growth returns to US (energy, medical, nanotech vs world) 17-22-year-old niche revitalized (K-12 failure) Full-time faculty stabilize (AAUP-ALA strike) Digital tech firewalled from class (i.e., tv + film)
  50. 50. Higher education landscape:Supplemental rather than transformative techLogistical instead of pedagogical techAcademics include tech in old structures (classes, publication)Reconfigured to protect IP
  51. 51. 18-year-olds were .ppt proficient by5th gradeSchools <> digital lifeThey find their parents’ recollections of life before the web are oddly charming
  52. 52. Gamingworld
  53. 53. Classroom and courses Curriculum content Delivery mechanism Creating games Peacemaker, Impact Games Revolution (via Jason Mittell)
  54. 54. •Joost Raessens and Jeffrey Goldstein, eds,Handbook of Computer Game Studies (MIT, 2005)•Frans Mayra, An Introduction to Game Studies(Sage, 2008)•Pat Harrigan and Noah Wardrip-Fruin, eds. ThirdPerson: Authoring and Exploring Vast Narratives(MIT, 2009)
  55. 55. Changes in hardware, softwarePart of undergraduate lifeLearning content, both informal and formalCareer paths
  56. 56. Higher education landscape: Accreditation: drives project-based, studio-style pedagogy Libraries: gaming production, archiving Professional development: distance, DiY Faculty multimedia production is the norm
  57. 57. Elsewhere in the world:War on IP ragesNostalgia waves for old mediaCompeting storytelling schools
  58. 58.  Most students identified with one+ game characters in K-12 Leading game developers are as well known as movie directors Most of their work and school is gamified
  59. 59. 1. Phantom Learning2. Open world3. The Lost Decade4. The Serpent Digests a Very Large Mammal5. Renaissance
  60. 60. NITLE NITLE prediction markets game Bryan on Twitter