Insights into the performance of Australia's regions
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.id's senior economic consultant, Rob Hall, investigates the key drivers of Australia's regional economies, explores the challenge of uneven growth and the transition to the knowledge economy.
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Insights into the performance of Australia's regions
- 1. Insights into the performance of Australia’s regions Building Regional Australia Summit, 2017
- 2. About .id expertiseTeam of over 40 people with extensive knowledge of people and places, helping local governments tackle community and social issues. understanding 20 years of development and service to local government. Today we work with over 250 councils providing over 650 online information resources and consulting services evidenceOnline resources inform in depth analysis which connects demographic, economic, housing, and population forecasting information. insight Transforming data into knowledge through robust analytical frameworks which focus on the right questions and inject confidence into your decision-making process
- 3. Return of the premier state?
- 4. Shifting tides of growth Population growth rate Source: ABS, Australian Demographic Statistics GFC Mining investment phase slowsPost Sydney Olympics Recession NSW Australia 0.6% 1.7% 2.1% 1.6% 0.5%
- 5. Transition to services & knowledge is good news for NSW National employment trends by industry – Cumulative growth (‘000) since Feb 2010 Source: ABS Labour Force, Feb 2017 Mfg Agr Mining Business services H/h services NSW accounts for 37% of Australia’s business service jobs (32% of all jobs)
- 7. Uneven economic and employment growth Employment Growth, NSW Source: National Economics, 2017 Regional typology % Growth 2006-2011 2011-2016 Greater Sydney 9.2 10.4 CBD – Sydney LGA 13.6 19.5 Central metropolitan (excl CBD) 7.8 10.5 Suburban metropolitan 6.2 6.2 Fringe metropolitan 10.8 8.9 Regional NSW 7.8 2.0 Regional City 9.8 3.4 Rural/remote 5.0 0.0 NSW 8.8 7.8
- 8. Regional growth focussed in few locations Largest employment growth, Regional NSW LGAs Source: National Economics, 2017 http://economic-indicators.id.com.au LGA Region Employment 2016 Growth 2011-2016 No. % Wollongong (C) Illawarra 95,031 7,149 8.1% Port Macquarie-Hastings (A) Mid North 31,890 3,739 13.3% Shellharbour (C) Illawarra 19,565 2,615 15.4% Port Stephens (A) Hunter 30,287 2,320 8.3% Maitland (C) Hunter 29,334 1,801 6.5% Orange (C) Central West 22,446 1,731 8.4% Newcastle (C) Hunter 107,471 1,443 1.4% Coffs Harbour (C) Mid North 31,554 1,363 4.5% Kempsey (A) Mid North 11,713 1,260 12.1% Singleton (A) Hunter 19,391 1,142 6.3% Lake Macquarie (C) Hunter 63,798 1,081 1.7%
- 9. Wollongong’s economic transition Total employment, Wollongong Source: National Economics, 2017
- 10. Change in employment, 2011-26, Wollongong Source: National Economics, 2017 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Mfg Financial Media/Telec Professional Arts & Rec Agr Property Wholesale Utilities Transport Admin Accomm & Food Govt Mining Const Other Services Retail Ed Health
- 11. Coff’s Harbour – a different growth story
- 12. Job creators • Construction • Services • Agriculture
- 13. Shift share analysis – new to economy.id • Regional factors driving growth in Construction, Retail, Agriculture • Accommodation/food – tourism?
- 14. What is driving this uneven growth pattern?
- 15. Increasingly dependent on ideas and problem solving
- 16. Uneven education and skills outcomes 35% 55% 12% 24% Year 12 completion Bachelor degree or higher Labour force outcomes - Participation rate, Feb 2017 • With bachelor degree = 81% • Completed Grade 10 = 50%
- 17. Agglomeration favours service sector industries Industry Effective Job Density Elasticities Source: SGS Economics and Planning
- 18. But are cracks emerging? Are there limits to capital city agglomeration?
- 19. Internal migration an important source of growth for Regional NSW Internal migration Source: ABS Regional Internal Migration Estimates
- 20. Liveability drivers are pushing residents to Regional NSW Net inter-regional migration, Rest of NSW Source: ABS Regional Internal Migration Estimates
- 21. Importance of a housing as an economic strategy
- 23. Helping your region transition • Understanding the economic role and function of your area • Education and skills – rebalance the investment mix • Knowledge oriented investment (people & places) • Connections • Export potential (goods and services) • Lifestyle / liveability drivers (pull factors) • Housing strategy integrated with economic development